lecture 28: anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases in ... · icehouse – hothouse (= greenhouse)...

Lecture 28: Anthropogenic Inputs of Greenhouse Gases in the Past 200 Years

1.  Greenhouse Effects and Global Warming 2.  Carbon Dioxide

–  Where CO2 comes from?

–  Where it is absorbed?

–  How long the CO2 would stay in the atmosphere?

–  How the strength of the sink responds to the CO2 rise?

3.  Methane 4.  Nitrous Oxide

Chapter 18 (325-335)

•  “Greenhouse Effects”

•  A greenhouse keeps the plants inside warm.

•  Greenhouse gases keep the Earth’s surface warm.

Both the greenhouse and increase of “greenhouse” gases trap heat and cause increase of temperature within the system.

But they trap different form of the “heat”. What different form of heat does the greenhouse and earth’s climate trap?

Annual Global Mean Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Glo

bal T

empe

ratu

re (

°C)

T CO2

CO

2 Concentration (ppm

v)

Year

Ice Core Data

Measured

How is carbon cycled in the Earth’s climate system?

Tectonic-scale cycling: hundreds of millions of years (plate tectonics and weathering)

Orbital-scale cycling: hundreds of thousands of years (glacial and interglacial cycles)

Seasonal-scale cycling: seasonal variations (biological activity)

Human-caused (anthropogenic) trends

Icehouse – Hothouse (= Greenhouse) cycles (~ 200 million year cycles)

Tectonic-scale cycling Weathering of rocks removes CO2 from the atmosphere, and volcanic-metamorphic processes restore it

Warm planets weather more rapidly, causing CO2 in atmosphere to decrease

This is a “negative feedback” mechanism, which keeps the climate system in balance.

Orbital-scale Cycling: CO2 over last 400,000 years

Carbon dioxide has varied from ~ 190 – 280 ppmv. Present (in year 2006) concentration is 381 ppmv.

Hypothesis: Iron enrichment of the oceans

During glacial periods, more dust more iron fallout into the oceans more phytoplankton more photosynthesis lower CO2 colder climate windier more dust •  Methane has varied from

~ 350 – 800 ppbv. Present (in year 2006) concentration is 1751 ppbv.

1.  Seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (Mauna Loa record)

2.  2. Photosynthesis takes CO2 from the atmosphere and stores it as carbon in the tissues of plants

• 

•  Plants, animals, natural forest and grass fires, decaying organic matter, volcanoes, release CO2 to the atmosphere

Seasonal Cycling: Seasonal Variations

Growth rate in 1980s

= (355-340) ppmv / ( 10 years )

= 15/10 =1.5 ppmv / year

The same in 1990s.

•  Seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (Mauna Loa record)

Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991

In addition to documenting the large increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last several decades, these data clearly identify the signature of the terrestrial biosphere in the annual CO2 fluctuations.

Changing Atmospheric Composition: Indicators of the Human Influence

•  31% increase since 1750: Highest levels since at least 420,000 years ago •  Rate of increase unprecedented over at least the last 20,000 years

CO2

CH4

N2O

•  Increased 150% since 1750 to its highest levels in at least 420,000 years •  Has both natural (e.g., wetland) and human-influenced sources (e.g., landfills, agriculture, natural gas activities) •  Accounts for 20% of total GHG forcing •  Increased 16% since 1750 to its highest levels in at least 1,000 years •  Has both natural (e.g., soils and oceans) and anthropogenic sources •  Accounts for 6% of total GHG forcing •  Halocarbons (e.g., CFCs) account for 14%

Global, well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

CO2

CH4

N2O

•  Increased 150% since 1750 to its highest levels in at least 420,000 years

•  Increased 16% since 1750 to its highest levels in at least 1,000 years •  Has both natural (e.g., soils and oceans) and anthropogenic sources •  Accounts for 6% of total GHG forcing •  Halocarbons (e.g., CFCs) account for 14%

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year




1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

CO2

CH4

N2O


1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year





Global Fossil Carbon Emissions

Pre-industrial level 275 ppmv

Growth rate in the past 250 years

= (370-280)/280

= 90/280

=0.31

=31%

Human Impacts on Atmospheric CO2

How old is human?

Pre-industrial level 275 ppmv

Growth rate in the past 250 years

= (370-280)/280

= 90/280

=0.31

=31%

Human Impacts on Atmospheric CO2

How old is human?

The oldest human we know: Ethiopian rift valley: 276KY old

USA 27.8% Europe 18.3% China: 7.8% Russia: 7.5% Germany: 6.7% UK: 6.1% Ships/air: 4% Japan: 3.9% CanAus: 3.0% India: 2.4% Rest of world: 12.5%

Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Capita

Carbon emissions by state per capita. The redder the color, the more emissions per person.

Source:

Where Does Carbon Go (Carbon Sink)? Human impact on global C cycle: Burning of fossil fuels, deforestation

Net emissions by humans = Net changes in carbon cycle

3 2

8.3

Total human emission:

Industrial: 6.5 Land-use: 1.8

Absorbed by land+ocean: Land: 3 Ocean: 2 Stay in the atmosphere: 3 ?? 0.3

Missing Carbon Sink – The mysterious removal of a large amount of carbon dioxide from the Earth’s atmosphere.

– The missing sink has partially offset the atmospheric CO2 amount

– Previous reports: – The southern oceans were a massive sink.

– The CO2 sink on land in the Northern Hemisphere was entirely in North America

– New findings: – The southern oceans are taking up less than previously thought

– The Northern Hemisphere landmass absorbs more than previously thought

– The North American sink was smaller than the earlier estimate

– Questions: Where CO2 comes from, where it is absorbed? How long it works? How the strength of the sink responds to the CO2 rise?

– Unraveling this mystery is important to predict future CO2 build-up and the resultant global warming. Implications for “carbon trade”.

Where is the missing carbon sink? Tropical forests. Steven et al. 2007 Science.

Terrestrial Carbon Sink Why and How Long?

– Human activities (fossil fuel use and land-use) perturb the carbon cycle -- increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide

– The current terrestrial carbon sink is caused by land management practices, higher carbon dioxide, nitrogen deposition and possibly recent changes in climate

– This uptake by the terrestrial biosphere will not continue indefinitely. The question is when will this slow down, stop or even become a source?

– Land management results in the sequestration of carbon in three main pools -- above and below ground biomass and soils

How does natural CO2 sink changes with time?

Ocean absorbed less CO2 as its surface temperature and acidity increase;

Terrestrial ecosystem also absorbed less due to e.g., droughts.

Terrestrial Biosphere predicted to take up C but will level off or reverse next century

Above-Canopy Towers for Measuring Ecosystem CO2 Exchange

Towers are instrumented to measure instantaneous fluxes of CO2 to or from the forest ecosystem, using a technique called Eddy Covariance or Eddy Correlation. Summed over time, these measurements can give us daily, weekly or annual Carbon balances, to answer the question:

Is the forest a source of CO2 to the atmosphere or a sink which removes CO2 from the atmosphere?

What environmental factors control how much Carbon is removed?

Ancillary Measurements Understanding CO2 Uptake/Release

Automated Dendrometer

Soil Respiration

Bole Respiration

Soil Carbon & Litter

Photosynthesis

Global CO2 Flux Network

Principal Anthropogenic Sources for Methane Domesticated livestock, cultivated rice paddies, fossil fuel and biomass burning, and the mining of coal, oil and gas

Summary-Discussion: Tectonic-scale cycling: hundreds of millions of years,

•  What control atmospheric CO2 on this time scale? •  How does the atmospheric CO2 concentration during the last 1 million year compared to that during most of the last 500 MY?

Orbital-scale cycling: hundreds of thousands of years (glacial and interglacial cycles):

• What controls CO2 change on this time scale? • How does CO2 during the last 400KY compares to today’s CO2 value?

Seasonal-scale cycling: seasonal variations (biological activity) • What controls atmospheric CO2 on this time scale? • What role does biosphere play in regulate CO2?

Human-caused (anthropogenic): What are the main sources of human-caused increase of CO2? How much human-emitted CO2 during the past century stays in the atmosphere? Where did the rest of the CO2 go? Do you expect the natural carbon sink to increase or decrease?

lecture 28: anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases in ... · icehouse – hothouse (= greenhouse)...

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