leasing industry h1 2011 results

Leasing Industry H1 2011 Results

Polish Leasing Association

Press Conference

25th July 2011

Intercontinental Hotel

Warsaw

List of Polish Leasing Association Members

Bankowy Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. BAWAG Leasing & Fleet Sp. z o. o. BGŻ Leasing Sp. z o.o. BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o.BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A.Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o.De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A.Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A.DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o.Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. Getin Leasing S.A.Handlowy-Leasing S.A.IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.Immoconsult Polska Sp. z o.o. ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o.Kredyt Lease S.A.

Masterlease Polska S.A.Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o. NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o.Nordea Finance Polska S.A.ORIX Polska S.A.PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o.Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A.Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o. SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o.Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o.VB Leasing Polska Polska S.A.VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o.Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.Polski Związek Wynajmu i Leasingu Pojazdów

Leasing Market

Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011Jan-Mar 11 /Jan-Mar 10

Apr-Jun 20I0 Apr-Jun 2011Apr-Jun 11 / Apr-Jun 10

Jan-Jun 2010 Jan-Jun 2011Jan-Jun 11 /Jan-Jun 10

Vehicles 2 962 3 611 21,9% 3 604 4 416 22,5% 6 566 8 027 22,2%

Passenger Delivery Cars 2 064 1 941 -6,0% 2 484 2 539 2,2% 4 549 4 479 -1,5%

Trucks 812 1 481 82,4% 951 1 641 72,6% 1 763 3 122 77,1%

Other Vehicles 86 189 120,0% 169 236 39,8% 255 426 66,9%

Machines 1 745 2 271 30,1% 2 045 2 796 36,7% 3 790 5 066 33,7%

IT 83 115 38,6% 96 133 39,0% 179 248 38,8%

Planes, ships, railway 67 101 50,8% 194 343 76,2% 261 443 69,7%

Other Movables 28 57 107,1% 33 76 130,7% 60 133 119,9%

Movables – total number 4 884 6 155 26,0% 5 972 7 763 30,0% 10 857 13 917 28,2%

Real Estate - financing 294 479 62,8% 267 164 -38,6% 561 643 14,6%

Real Estate – only management 0 0 232 0 -100,0% 232 0 -100,0%

Financing altogether (Leasing+Loans) 5 179 6 634 28,1% 6 239 7 926 27,0% 11 418 14 560 27,5%

Leasing Industry H1 2011Results (1)

Total number of assets financed by leasing companies

Machines constitute the second pillar of growth. It is the result of high production capacity use in production facilities (81.9% at the end of Q2 2011) and high (present and excepted) level of industrial production sold.

The fact that VAT on passenger cars with truck homologation cannot be deducted any more has not influenced the results of the whole light vehicle sector. The drops among trucks and delivery cars up to 3.5 tons (-47.6% YOY) were compensated in H1 2011 by the increase in typical passenger cars financing (+39.0% YOY).

The value of machines financed by leasing companies in 2011 was supported to a high degree with loans, which results in growing share of agricultural machines and medical equipment in new production sector.

The growth on the real estate market which started three quarters ago, stopped.

The growth on the movable leasing market observed since March 2010 continues. 2010 recorded 22.8% growth of the financed movable assets (mainly due to the low base of critical 2009). This year we observe further increase: 26.0% in Q1 and 30.0% in Q2 YOY.

The growth on the movable market is constant and regards most sectors. In 2011 there are two main pillars of growth: trucks and machines.

Good results of the truck leasing origin from the increase on the transportation market, improving financial condition of the transport companies and low base at the beginning of 2010.


Source: Polish Leasing Association

Assets financed with leasing

Jan-Mar 10 Jan-Mar 11Jan-Mar 11/Jan-Mar 10

Apr-Jun 10 Apr-Jun 11Apr-Jun 11/Apr-Jun 10

Jan-Jun 10 Jan-Jun 11Jan-Jun 11/Jan-Jun 10

Vehicles 2 952 3 528 19,5% 3 576 4 168 16,6% 6 528 7 696 17,9%

Passenger Delivery Cars 2 061 1 925 -6,6% 2 465 2 387 -3,2% 4 526 4 312 -4,7%

Trucks 805 1 461 81,4% 941 1 587 68,5% 1 747 3 047 74,4%

Other Vehicles 86 142 64,6% 169 195 15,2% 255 336 31,8%

Machines 1 340 1 824 36,1% 1 520 2 206 45,2% 2 860 4 031 40,9%

IT 83 113 36,3% 95 131 38,2% 178 244 37,3%

Planes, ships, railway 62 98 57,8% 194 340 75,5% 256 438 71,2%

Other movables 28 57 106,9% 32 75 135,4% 60 132 122,2%

Movables – total number 4 465 5 620 25,9% 5 416 6 920 27,8% 9 881 12 541 26,9%

Real Estate - financing 294 347 17,8% 267 136 -49,0% 561 483 -13,9%

Real Estate – only management 232 0 -100,0% 232 0

Leasing altogether - financing 4 759,9 5 967,1 25,4% 5 682 7 056 24,2% 10 442 13 024 24,7%



Assets financed with loans

All the assets financed with loans constitute 10.6% of the whole leasing companies production. In 2011 the index amounted to 8.4%.

Machines still constitute the main pillar of investment financed with a loan. However, their share in the whole production is not dominating when compared with 2010: 67.4% in 2011, 95.3% in H1 2010 and 81.8% in whole 2010.

More and more vehicles are financed with loans: 4.1% in 2011 comparing with 0.6% in H1 2010. As a result, the vehicles constitute 21.5% of loan financing.

The use of EU funds by the farmers results in dominant share of agricultural machines in loan financing sector.

Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011Jan-Mar 11/Jan-Mar 10

Apr-Jun 10 Apr-Jun 11Apr-Jun 11/ Apr-Jun 10

Jan-Jun 10 Jan-Jun 11Jan-Jun 11/Jan-Jun 10

Vehicles 10 83 753,1% 28 248 776,1% 38 331 770,2%

Passenger Delivery Cars 3 15 349,6% 19 152 700,5% 22 167 647,0%

Trucks 6 20 217,6% 9 54 482,6% 16 74 375,4%

Other Vehicles 0 48 0 42 0 89

Machines 404 447 10,5% 526 589 12,0% 930 1 036 11,4%

IT 0 2 938,9% 1 2 113,9% 1 5 247,6%

Planes, ships, railway 5 2 -45,2% 1 3 217,0% 6 6 0,7%

Other Movables 0 0 1 0 -70,1% 1 0 -63,6%

Movables – total number 419 534 27,6% 557 842 51,3% 976 1 377 41,1%

Real Estate 0 132 0 28 0 160

Loans altogether 419 667 59,2% 557 870 56,2% 976 1 537 57,5%

Machines financed with loans

Other Machines and Devices 4%

Medical Equipment 11%

Machines for Food

Industry 2%

Machines for Plastics Productionand Metalwork 5%

PrintingMachines 5%

Agricultural Machines63%

Building Equipment10%

Company H1 2011 Results


Greater presence on the market resulted in 28% growth of the asset value financed by leasing companies in 2011.

Growth on the leasing market results mainly from the significant increase of certain companies turnover and gradual increase of the other companies turnover. The reports show that 7 companies increased turnover of 60% per year and 12 companies – of 50%.

The crisis of 2009 seems to have lower impact on the company results.

Lower turnover in real estate sector influenced the results of Millennium, Pekao, BNP Paribas.

Small and medium leasing companies record faster pace of growth. The sales recorded in H1 2010 in case of five leasing companies grew of 19.0% in 2011, the growth in case of other companies amounted to 34.9% YOY.

1 511

1 269

650 633572

1 338

950767

744

664

13%

23%

72%

16%

59%

19%-17%

70%

13%

213%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

EFL

Raiffe

isen BRE

Mill

enniu

m

Banko

wy

BZ WBK

Pekao IN

G

VB Lea

sing

Getin

-30%

20%

70%

120%

170%

220%

Total number of assets financed in H1 2011 [PLN mln]

Sales YOY

Leasing Industry H1 2011 Results – Real Estate


The value of leased real estate units in H1 2010 amounted to PLN 643 million, which proves 14.6% growth per year.

Positive dynamics of the market in 2011 is constant due to Q1 results when the real estate sector increased of 62.8%. The annual dynamics dropped of 38.6% in Q2 2011, the value of financed assets amounted to only PLN 164 million. It is much worse than the results from Q1 2011 (PLN 294 million) and from H2 2010: PLN 457 million in Q3 and PLN 577 million in Q4.

Positive dynamics of the market results from growing average transaction value: from PLN 4.3 million in H1 2010 to PLN 5.6 million in 2011. The number of reported contracts dropped from 98 to 112 contracts signed in H1 2010.

In 2011 the market of real estate transactions financed with leasing is highly concentrated. It is estimated that 63% of transactions (value and quantity) were concluded by three leading companies. In 2010 the index of turnover value amounted to 51%, and of transactions – 65%. ING is still the leader on the market, however, his predominance over the other two companies is not as significant as in 2010.

Loans become a more common way of financing the purchase of real estate units. 25% assets were financed with loans in H1 2011, while in the whole 2010 it was 11%. Business structure of real estate market is dominated by commercial and service centres as well as by industrial buildings.

.

Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market

Industrial buildings

39%

Commercial and

Service Centres50%

Office Facilities1%

HotelsRecreation Centres

0,6%Others

9%

Inni15,2%

EFL2,5%

BNP Paribas3,7%

BZ WBK6,5% Bankowy

9,3%Raiffeisen

17,1%

BRE21,3%

ING24,3%

Business Structure of Real Estate Leasing Market

Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market


In 2011, similarly to 2010, leasing in PLN prevails in new production structure in the case of movable leasing. Its share decreased, though, from 84.0% in 2010 to 77.0% in H1 2011. The index of loan financing is constant: 89.1% in 2011 and 88.8% in 2010.

In the subsequent quarters of 2010 and 2011 we may observe a gradual growth of interest in foreign currency leasing. In H1 2010 the share amounted to 14.7%, in H2 2010 – 17.0%, however, in Q1 2011 it was 22.5% and in Q2 the share amounted to 23.4%.

It is still much worse result than 32.3% reached in Q4 2008. Nevertheless, it seems that entrepreneurs become more willing to take advantage of foreign currency leasing.

Real estate leasing was usually executed in foreign currency. As of 2008 the share of PLN in financing this sector is growing. This process significantly accelerated in 2011 when 67% real estate leasing transactions have been financed with PLN (64.8% in Q1 and 72.4% in Q2). In 2010 foreign currency leasing prevailed, financing 60.5% of the real estate output.

0%

10%

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50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007

Q1 20

08Q2

2008

Q3 20

08Q4

2008

Q1 20

09Q2

2009

Q3 20

09Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2 20

10Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1 20

11Q2

2011

Currency Structure of New Production - movables

Leasing in PLN

Leasing in Foreign Currency0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007

Q1 20

08 Q

2 20

08Q3

2008

Q4 20

08Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3 20

09 Q

4 20

09Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1 20

11Q2

2011

Currency Structure of New Production – real estate

Leasing in PLN

Leasing in Foreign Currency

Leasing and Investment between 2004 and 2011

Source: Polish Leasing Association, Central Statistical Office

The average annual growth of leasing market amounted to 32% between 2004 and 2007, exceeding the investment dynamics in economy amounting to 11%. As a result the share of leasing in investment financing grew significantly.

In 2008 leasing market was affected by approaching economic crisis recording drops in turnover since May 2008. The truck industry contributed the most to the whole market halt, recording 40% drop in the second half of the year.

Public infrastructural investment, often co-finances with EU funds, contributed to the drops in investment in 2009 and 2010. Private investment started in the second half of 2010.

The growth of the leasing market observed since 2010 results in gradual increase of the leasing penetration index in investment. It exceeded the average value of the index for Europe estimated for 12.6% in 2010. However, it is still lower than in 2007.

14,216,3

21,8 23,0

27,3

32,532,6 32,928%

15%

34%

50%

1%

-30%

19%

19%

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

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40,0

45,0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (P)

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%leasing market [PLN billion]

change YOY

120131

155

192

217 221 213

23917,6%

6,4%6,5%

14,9%

9,6%

-1,1% -1,2%

9,5%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (P)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%Investment [PLN billion]Investment dynamics YOY

12,4%

11,8%

14,1%

17,0%

15,2%

10,4%

12,8%

13,6%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (P)

% of investment financed with leasing

Investment Financing – Leasing vs Investment Loan

Source: Polish Leasing Association, National Bank of Poland

The total value of leasing amount due amounting on 30 th July 2011 to PLN 55.86 billion (PLN 48.05 billion for movables and PLN 7.81 billion for real estate) is similar to the value of balance of the investment loans granted to companies by banks (PLN 67.42 billion). Except for loans, leasing is the main external source of investment financing.

Value of leasing amount due grew within the last 12 months of 4.6% (mainly due to the 5.8% growth of movable portfolio). However, it is 1.2% lower than two years ago.

Data provided by National Bank of Poland and concerning money supply (on 30th July 2011) proves significant growth of banks’ loan activity within the scope of investment loans. Within the last 12 months the balance of the investment loans grew of 10.6%. This is also the highest dynamics per year as of September 2009.

37,8

43,948,4 47,7 47,3 45,4

47,8 48,0

0,5%

5,2%

-3,9%-0,9%

-1,4%

10,2%

16,2%

0,0

10,0

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31.12.200730.06.200831.12.200830.06.200931.12.200930.06.201031.12.201030.06.2011

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

value of the real estate leasing active portfolio

change in relation to the previous period

49,8

56,6 56,5 54,9 53,4 55,3 55,9

1,8%

13,7%

-0,2%

-2,8% -2,8%

3,6%0,9%

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

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30.06.2008 31.12.2008 30.06.2009 31.12.2009 30.06.2010 31.12.2010 30.06.2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%total value of active portfolio

change in relation to the previous period

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Jan

07

Mar

07

May

07

Jul 0

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t 07

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n 08

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ar 0

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ay 0

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l 08

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8 Nov

08

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Jul 1

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ar 1

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1

Balance of the investment loansgranted to companies by banks [PLN billion] 67,4 bln

Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association(PZWLP)

H1 2011 Results

PZWLP H1 2011 Results

• PZWLP 2011 – 17 member companies– Results provided by 16 companies– One of the members will start reporting in 2012

• PZWLP – in total after H1 2011 – 88.093 vehicles, including:– FSL 72.472 (FSL – Full Service Leasing)– LS 6.430 (LS – Leasing Service) – FM 9.191 (FM – Fleet Management)

Source: PZWLP

PZWLP H1 2011 Results

• More vehicles in PZWLP fleets within a year– Increase of 15.6% (11.893 vehicles) in relation to Q2 2010– Including 80% of FSL and 20% of LS and FM– The fastest grow – FSL – within a year more of 9.439 vehicles

Source: PZWLP

Dynamics of PZWLP fleet growth between 2010 and 2011 (total number of FSL, LS and FM vehicles in thousands)

88.093

76.200

71.297

83.274

Leaders of Fleet Industry(Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP)

Source: PZWLP

Leaders of long-term rental:1. Masterlease 19.339 (including FM 144)2. LeasePlan Fleet Management 16.149 (including FM 2.622)3. Arval Service Lease 13.504 (including FM 175)4. ING Car Lease 9.939 (including FM 129)5. Carefleet 7.337 (including FM 604)

FSL Leaders1. LeasePlan Fleet Management 13.5062. Arval Service Lease 13.1973. Masterlease 12.0884. ING Car Lease 8.9555. Carefleet 6.733

Members of Polish Leasing Association and PZWLPLeaders of Fleet Market

Total Numerical Representation by Product

Source: PZWLP

Based on the results of 17 companies

• Polish Leasing Association and PZWLP – in total after Q2 2011: 107. 432 vehicles• Growth of 12% in relation to Q2 2010 (YOY)

Company Investments

Company Investments in 2011 (1)

Data: National Bank of Poland

Index of investment continuation and share of investing companies

The data on investment is not synonymous. On the one hand it proves that companies are anxious about investing...

Data provided by National Bank of Poland proves low investment activity of enterprises. The share of new investment is below the average recorded over past years. New investments, especially the big ones are postponed as it is hard to assess the future condition of a company. As a result, 21.2% companies plan to start new investments in Q3, Q2 recorded the share of 22.6%.

The drop of investment activity is visible in SME sector as well as in the case of big companies (especially those which employ over two thousand persons). The growth of investment might be expected in the group of companies employing 500-1999 persons.

The share of companies realizing their investments dropped in Q2 to 61.3% (-2.5 pp/Q). It was the second quarterly drop, much below the level before 2009.

The started investments are usually (97.4%) continued without disruptions.

New investment index – share of companies planning to begin new investment within a quarter

SME bigincluding over 1999

employees

Company Investments in 2011(2)

Data: Central Statistical Office

However, the companies started to invest...

...although the level of investment is still not high.

After economic drop in 2010 (-1.2%), Q1 2011 recorded higher (+6.0%) gross outlay on fixed assets per year.

In H2 2010 medium and big companies recorded 10.1% growth of investments.

The dynamics slowed down in Q1 2011 to 2.6% as a result of 5.3% nominal drop in investments realized by public sector. At the same time the expenditure of private companies grew of 6.3%.

The data provided by Central Statistical Office shows that the biggest growth of expenditure in Q1 2011 was recorded in case of means of transport (+27.4% YOY; +27.0% YOY in H2 2010), less was spent on machines and devices (+7.1%; +3.0% YOY in H2 1010). The expenditure on buildings and construction sector dropped of 9.4%.

6,5%

15,6%

37,1%

23,8%

22,0%

1,9%

-5,3%

-17,9%

-17,7%

10,1%

2,6%

0

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Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1-Q2 Q3-Q4 Q1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Investment of the companies over 50 employees [PLN billion]

Investment dynamics YOY


Average Level of Production Capacity Use

Data: National Bank of Poland

Further growth of production capacity use in Q2 2011: up to 80.9% (growth of 0.9 pp QOQ and of 1.9 pp YOY). The index exceeds long-term average which is closely correlated with the investment growth.

Industry records the biggest growth of production capacity use (particularly in case of processing industry) as well as among the biggest companies. Q2 records higher index in case of SME sector.

The growth of production capacity use is correlated with 7.4% increase in industrial production recorded in H1 2011. Similar dynamics should be noted in H2 2011, which will have impact on production capacity use and the necessity to restore it.

Company deposits are still growing but the annual dynamics in June (+5.6%) was the lowest for over two years.

SME sa big 2000 and more sa construction sa industry sa services

110

120

130

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180

190

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07

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07

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07

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7 Sep

t 07

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7 Ja

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ay 0

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Company deposits in commercial banks [PLN billion]PLN 179 billion


Q3 2010 was a breakthrough for the company investment. The annual growth of investment was recorded for medium and big companies.

As first, big companies and exporters increased their investment taking advantage of the improvement in production sector and export. These companies present the best financial condition.

It is estimated that SME sector started the investment process in Q4 2010. It will reach the top in 2011-2012 as a result of growing domestic demand. It is expected that the following quarters of the year will record the gradual improvement of investment climate among companies focused mainly on domestic market.

It is assumed that the 2010 results of the leasing industry were the promise for increasing company investment. Previously, leasing industry announced the changes concerning the investments in domestic company six months in advance.

Companies stay positive. Good financial results, high liquidity, improved security of business activities and the access to financial sources encourage investment growth. We may also observe the acceleration of loan granting process, including the investment loans. As a result, we expect growing number of company investments in Q2 and H2 2011.

It is estimated that in 2011 the growth of investments will reach 9.5%. In 2011 the expenditure connected with investment will be strongly supported with infrastructural projects. The number of private investments will grow in 2012.

Macroeconomic Forecast

2011 in economy – positive trends still prevail


2010 experienced positive transformation: from the country which economic growth depended mainly on export increase (and industrial production connected with export) to the country which economy is based on the domestic demand. It is a key change enabling stable economic growth.

In June 2011 five 5.526 million people were employed in companies over 10 employees (12.5 thousand more than in May and 190 thousand more than in 2010). We may observe the growth of employment while its dynamics is decreasing. However, the employment rate is much higher that before the crisis.

The unemployment rate is gradually decreasing – 11.8% in June according to the data provided by the Polish Ministry of Labour. It is slightly more than last year when the unemployment rate amounted to 11.6%. Labour market records gradual improvement.

The growth of employment together with the increase of salaries result in higher payroll (+4.5% in Q1 and +4.4% in Q2). Stable employment results in greater expenditure.

Also smaller companies, focused on domestic market take advantage of better situation on the labour market. It might be observed in output results of individual industries. As a result, retail sales grew of 12% from the beginning of 2011 and private consumption growth is estimated for 4% YOY.

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7employment in enterprises [in thousands]]

employment in enterprises [% YOY]

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dynamics of payroll in enterprises [% YOY]

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dynamics of retail sales [% YOY]

Poland is not and isolated island


The share of export in Polish GDP result (circa 36%) is not as significant as in the case of other economies in the region, however, weaker condition of our trade partners will affect the economic results of Poland.

It mainly concerns the following aspects: fiscal and liquidity difficulties of the suburban states of Euro zone, budgetary consolidation in Europe, difficulties in order realization after earthquake in Japan, high prices of raw materials and tighter monetary policy in developing countries (mainly in China).

These factors do not affect significantly the pace of growth in Poland since the strongest European states should record good results: Germany (GDP shall grow of 2.6% in 2011 and 1.8%-1.9% in 2012), France, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

Poland will still take advantage of good economic condition of our main partner countries, however, the pace of export growth will decrease.

New orders in industry [% YOY]

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Apr 2

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201

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2011

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201

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1

Euro zone Germany

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0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

01-

08

02-

08

03-

08

04-

08

05-

08

06-

08

07-

08

08-

08

09-

08

10-

08

11-

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12-

08

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09

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09

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09

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09-

09

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09

11-

09

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10

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10

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10

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10

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10

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10

08-

10

09-

10

10-

10

11-

10

12-

10

01-

11

02-

11

03-

11

04-

11

05-

11

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Export Euro mln Export % YOY

-12,7

12,7

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

01-08

02-08

03-08

04-08

05-08

06-08

07-08

08-08

09-08

10-08

11-08

12-08

01-09

02-09

03-09

04-09

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06-09

07-09

08-09

09-09

10-09

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12-09

01-10

02-10

03-10

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05-10

06-10

07-10

08-10

09-10

10-10

11-10

12-10

01-11

02-11

03-11

04-11

05-11

06-11

Industrial production dynamics % YOY (not seasonal)

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Oct 20

08

Dec 2

008

Feb 2

009

Apr 2

009

Jun

2009

Aug 2

009

Oct 20

09

Dec 2

009

Feb 2

010

Apr 2

010

Jun

2010

Aug 2

010

Oct 20

10

Dec 2

010

Feb 2

011

Apr 2

011

Jun

2011

ISM USA PMI Euro zone PMI Chin

Macroeconomic Forecast for 2011

The growth in Euro zone will continue despite implementation of saving programmes, lower growth in developing countries and the fiscal problems of the suburban countries of the zone. We are still not expecting double-dip recession. The economic growth in Euro zone will reach 2%in 2011 .

The pace of growth in the case of German economy, so crucial for Poland, will slow down from 3.6% in 2010 to 2.6% in 2011. However, it will be much faster than in the case of other Euro zone countries and the growth of the German economy will be supported by growing expenditure of the consumers. It is the effect of unemployment decrease.

The Germans will still increase the level of production and export, however, the dynamics will slow down as it is foreseen by weaker results of the German prosperity indices (IFO, PMI) . The most recent results from May do not prove the significant decrease: production growth +26.8% YOY, export growth +19.9% YOY.

It will enable Poland to keep descent export dynamics and to maintain high dynamics of industrial production during the whole year. It is estimated that the average pace of growth in the case of the industrial production in H2 2011 will amount to circa 6.5% comparing to 7.4% growth in H1 2011. PMI index for Poland reached 51.2 points in June, which means decrease of prosperity and fewer export orders.

Import will grow faster than export, which will result in negative contribution of the foreign trade to the growth of GDP.

The growth of production will lead to further improvement on the employment market (permanent growth of employment and slightly higher than in 2010 nominal growth of salaries) and to further growth of real payroll. As a result, the dynamics of retail sale will accelerate from 5.5% in 2010 to 11% in 2011. Private consumption and private investment will constitute the main pillars of the economic growth in 2011.

Main Trends: Forecast for Poland:

Growth of industrial production: 7.0%

Growth of export: +12.0%

Net export contribution to GDP: -0.5 pp

Growth of employment in enterprises: +180 000 people

Unemployment at the end of the year: 11%

Nominal growth of salaries: +5%

Nominal growth of retail sale: +11%

Growth of private consumption: +3.5%

GDP growth: +4.2%

Investment growth: +9.5%

GDP growth in Q2 2011 will remain at the level similar to the one from Q1 (4.4%-4.5%) and it will correspond with the nominal pace of the economic growth. It will be also the prosperity peak in the current economic cycle.

Consolidation of the public finance will not decrease the pace of the economic growth in 2011 as it will not be implemented yet.

Leasing Industry Forecast

Registration of passenger cars and trucks

Source: Samar

In 2010 there were registered 97 thousand cars with cargo partition, 112% more that in 2009. In December 2010 there were registered 21 thousand such cars – 50% of all registrations (31% during the whole year).

So far, in 2011 we record 6% lower rate of passenger cars registration. Good results in leasing sector derive from greater than expected number of cars purchased by companies (by May growth of 2% with the 10% drop in purchase executed by individuals).

Current high dynamics of new trucks registration (106% by May) results from low base at the beginning of 2010. The share of registrations executed in H1 2010 constituted only 26% of all registrations in 2010 with the long-term average amounting to 48%.

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25 000

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40 00045 000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06

2009 2010 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

New passenger cars registration

Registration of new passenger cars with truck homologation

Share of new registered cars with homologation

Registration of passenger cars with truck homologation

Passenger cars bought by companies in 2009, 2010 and 2011 per month

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

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35 000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

months

qu

an

tity

2009 2010 2011

Registration of new trucks

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200

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800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2010 2011

Leasing Industry Results Forecast (1)


Total number of assets financed by leasing companies

Almost 97 thousand passenger cars with truck homologation were bought by companies in 2010, which will lead to worse results concerning passenger delivery cars sale in 2011. Bigger demand on passenger cars will not compensate lower number of cars with cargo partition. Light vehicles sector will be supported by bigger demand on delivery cars and trucks of maximum weight up to 3.5 tons (influence of domestic demand growth).

Trucks will incite the growth in 2011 (as a result of improving financial condition of transport companies, expected significant growth of transport orders and the necessity to replace old vehicles with the new ones due to higher rates of e-myto). Also machines will encourage the growth (the necessity to complete/develop machinery due to growing reliance on production capabilities and greater number of domestic orders).

We do not expect significant growth in real estate leasing sector.

The market growth in 2011 amounting to circa 19% will correspond with similar growth of investment in national economy.

2010 2011 (P)change 2011/2010

change YOYQ1 2011

change YOY Q2 2011

change YOYQ3 2011

change YOYQ4 2011

Vehicles 15 898 17 821 12% 22% 23% 21% -5%

Passenger Delivery Cars 10 783 9 868 -8% -6% 2% 1% -22%

Trucks 4 361 6 923 59% 82% 73% 59% 37%

Other Vehicles 754 1 030 37% 120% 40% 45% 11%

Machines 8 536 11 280 32% 30% 37% 29% 33%

IT 464 583 26% 39% 39% 12% 22%

Planes, ships, railway 650 978 51% 51% 76% 39% 36%

Other Movables 149 242 63% 107% 131% 20% 30%

Movables – in total 25 696 30 905 20% 26% 30% 24% 7%

Real Estate 1 595 1 599 0% 63% -39% 6% -18%

Leasing altogether 27 291 32 504 19% 28% 27% 23% 6%

Leasing Industry Results Forecast (2)


In 2010 leasing market was already prepared for the growth in company investment observed in H2 2011.

Also macroeconomic data from recent months confirms the recovery of economy. The recovery cycle was much shorter than during the global crisis in 2001-2002. The business cycle amounted to nine quarters.

It is expected that the industry will gradually grow in the following quarters.

The slowdown of dynamics in case of the whole movable market in Q4 2011 results from the boom on cars with cargo partition recorded in November and December 2010.

The expected growth of private investment will be financed mainly with loans. It is a result of growing absorption of EU funds and of greater interest of leasing companies in such product.

Assets financed with leasing

Assets finances with loans

Movables-total number

2010 2011 (P)change

2011/2010change YOY

Q1 2011change YOY

Q2 2011change YOY

Q3 2011change YOY

Q4 2011

Vehicles 15 692 17 082 9% 19% 17% 17% -7%

Passenger Delivery Cars 10 722 9 519 -11% -7% -3% -2% -24%

Trucks 4 293 6 741 57% 81% 69% 57% 36%

Other Vehicles 677 821 21% 65% 15% 21% 12%

Machines 6 654 8 923 34% 36% 45% 32% 26%

IT 447 572 28% 36% 38% 25% 20%

Planes, ships, railway 630 962 53% 58% 76% 40% 40%

Other Movables 148 242 64% 107% 135% 20% 30%

23 571 27 781 18% 26% 28% 23% 3%

Real Estate 1 420 1 296 -9% 18% -49% -10% 0%


2010 2011 (P)change

2011/2010

loan share Q1 2011

loanshareQ2 2011

loanshare Q3 2011

loan share Q4 2011

Vehicles 205 739 260% 2% 6% 4% 4%

Passenger Delivery Cars 62 348 465% 1% 6% 3% 3%

Trucks 67 182 171% 1% 3% 3% 3%

Other Vehicles 77 209 173% 25% 18% 16% 22%

Machines 1 882 2 357 25% 20% 21% 21% 22%

IT 17 11 -33% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Planes, ships, railway 20 16 -18% 2% 1% 2% 2%

Other Movables 1 1 -47% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Movables-total number 2 126 3 124 47% 9% 11% 10% 10%

Real Estate 175 303 73% 28% 17% 15% 15%


Press Conference July 2011

Polish Leasing Association demands amendments in the economic law, which will result in:

► Access to inexpensive finance solutions for entrepreneurs and consumersCurrent status:

Governmental draft amendment to the acts on taxes regarding consumer leasing came into effect on 1st July 2011. Leasing enables clients to negotiate better purchase terms, to take advantage of new form of consumer goods, which divides risk connected with loans between the financing party and the user. Leasing provides also the access to various services provided together with leasing.

► They will stimulate the market of real estate leasing:- by cutting the duration of the contract on real estate leasing to 5 years - by enabling the leasing of perpetual usufruct

► They will improve the protection of entrepreneurs who cannot continue leasing contract due to financial problems:

- possibility to assign the liabilities to other entity- possibility to lease the subject of the cancelled lease contract signed by other entity

► Current status: The draft is being prepared to be submitted to the Parliamentary Commission.

► Tax payers will be better secured while executing leasing contract.Scientific conferences on the following subjects shall be organised:

Rights and responsibilities of all parties signing leasing contract in the light of the Polish civil law. Coherent interpretation of tax law in the case of judicial decisions and interpretations stated by the Polish Ministry of Finance.

► Enabling retrieving funds frozen in municipal real estate units and increasing investment potential of self-governing entities by taking advantage of private capital (PPP).Current status:

The Polish Ministry of Infrastructure declared to continue the analyses aiming at enabling the usage of possessed real estate units by self-governing entities to cover the growing financial needs of these entities.Centrum PPP Foundation, which was established also by Polish Leasing Association, prepared the solutions for public entities to take advantage of PPP projects within healthcare sector as well as in the scope of buildings constructed only for rental. Also the solutions for the following needs are being elaborated: for creating the headquarters for public authorities, for prison management or for creating the information society. Moreover, The Code of Good Practice for the PPP Advisor was prepared.

► They will encourage entrepreneurs to invest by decreasing the costs connected to the usage of company cars and by improving safety on the roads as well as environmental protection.

Current status: Polish Leasing Association together with Polish Automotive Industry

Association, Polish Chamber of Automotive Industry and Car Dealer Association prepared the report entitled “Automotive Industry in the Global Crisis. Proposed Solutions”. The report presents four key issues: full VAT deduction in the case of company cars, introduction of environmental tax, introduction of consumer leasing to the market and improved functioning of vehicle inspection stations. The claims were addressed to the highest state authorities and all parliamentary political formations.

Polish Leasing Association became the partner of Przyjazna Motoryzacja Programme. The Programme aims at drawing the attention of the representatives of public and parliamentary administration, the representatives of the voluntary and professional organisations to the significance of motorisation in the fields of economy, ecology and safety. So far, there have been held three parliamentary debates concerning these matters.

Związek Polskiego Leasingu(Polish Leasing Association)

ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawatel.: (22) 542 41 36fax: (22) 542 41 37

e-mail: [email protected]

www.leasing.org.pl

leasing industry h1 2011 results

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