learninglight2009_2_

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 20091

Learning Light Limited

The UK e-learning market 2009

David Patterson, Glynn Jung and Gill Broadhead


ContentsI Forward by Creativesheffield ...................................................................... 4II About Learning Light ................................................................................... 5III Acknowledgements and thanks................................................................. 91. Introduction ............................................................................................... 16

1.1 background to the report................................................................... 162. Executive Summary ................................................................................. 173. What is e-Learning?................................................................................... 19

3.1 e-learning - definitions .......................................................................... 193.1.1 e-learning components .................................................................. 193.1.2 e-learning, e-publishing and learning tools .................................... 21

3.2 How e-learning is flowering .................................................................. 224.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market .................................................... 23

4.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007 ................................................................. 234.1.2 UK’s e-Learning players................................................................. 244.1.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies............................................. 24Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-coreactivity .................................................................................................... 24Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in e-Learning.................................................................................................. 25Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007).......... 27Table 4 Interviews and other news: ........................................................ 29News and views on who’s doing what .................................................... 29

4.1.3. Consolidations, Mergers & Outsourcing ........................................... 305.0 The Survey interviews............................................................................ 33

5.1 Market Trends ...................................................................................... 335.1.1 Continuing growth…? .................................................................... 335.1.2 Signs of a Slowdown...................................................................... 345.1.3 Importance of the public sector...................................................... 355.1.4 Where is business coming from..................................................... 365.1.5 Where are the threats .................................................................... 36

5.2 Technology Trends............................................................................... 375.2.1 The impact of open source ............................................................ 375.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0................................................................... 385.2.3 Social networking and e-learning................................................... 395.2.4 Future technology trends ............................................................... 40

5.3 Future Industry Trends ......................................................................... 415.3.1 New business models .................................................................... 415.3.2 Industry structure – mergers, acquisitions and liquidations............ 425.3.3 Skill Shortages............................................................................... 43

6. 6. Trends in the market .............................................................................. 456.1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000 .......................................... 456.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning................................. 45

6.2.1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor................................................................................................................ 46

7. Role of large corporate suppliers ............................................................... 478. The size of the UK market ......................................................................... 49


8.1 A forecasting model.............................................................................. 498.1.1 background to the forecast ............................................................ 498.1.2 The Market in 2006........................................................................ 508.1.3 Adoption levels .............................................................................. 508.1.4 Percentage of training budgets ...................................................... 508.1.5 Continued growth........................................................................... 518.1.6 2009 doom or gloom...................................................................... 518.1.7 Higher and higher .......................................................................... 528.1.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth?............ 538.1.9 How does the UK compare with Europe ........................................ 538.1.10 A US perspective ....................................................................... 54

8.2 Sizing the market - summary................................................................ 549.0. Industry Trends ....................................................................................... 55

9.1. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice..559.1.2 Moodle ........................................................................................... 559.1.3 Moodle Plug Ins ............................................................................. 569.1.4 Software as a Service (SaaS)........................................................ 56

9.2. Content – How you use content is now King ................................... 579.2.1 Generic content:........................................................................... 579.2.2 e-reference systems and Academies............................................. 57

9.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation ........... 589.4 Gaming and learning......................................................................... 59

9.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity ...................................... 599.6 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 – Social networking and Informal learning .609.7 Mobile, Handheld, Portable or…..? ................................................... 609.8 e-assessment ....................................................................................... 61

10.0 Drivers of growth.................................................................................... 6110.1 Compliance 2.0 .................................................................................. 6110.2 Lifestyle learning............................................................................... 6210.3 The training industry gets e-learning. ................................................. 6210.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learnerimpact......................................................................................................... 63

10.4.1 The e is for environmental ........................................................... 6310.6 e–Learning 2.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise ....................... 6410.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market....................................... 64

10.8. Services ........................................................................................ 6410.8.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry?................................................. 64

Appendices .................................................................................................... 66Appendix A - The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning.................................... 66

The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) - summary ................................. 66Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report ......................... 68

Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor ...... 68Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 - eLearn Magazine.................... 71Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions ............................ 77Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’ expertpredictions.................................................................................................. 79


I Forward by Creativesheffield

Creativesheffield is pleased to be supporting the publication of this importantreport. As the report demonstrates, the global market for e-learning content isgrowing at a rapid rate as both large and small businesses and educationalinstitutions are seeking to deliver their learning in a smarter and more costeffective way. Much of this is enabled by advances in digital and new mediaapplications and through the deployment of new technologies.

The digital and new media industries in the Sheffield region are growing at afaster rate than anywhere else in the UK in terms of specialist companies andnew jobs. This is due in no small part to the significant cluster of e-learningbusinesses in the city which have made Sheffield the UK centre for suchactivity. The city is home to one of the largest applied e-learning servicesorganisations in the world; Ufi learndirect, as well as a breadth of companiescovering the full spectrum of e-learning solutions and online informationservices.

Sheffield is also home to Learning Light who have become a recognisedcentre of excellence in the use of e-learning and Learning Technologies andhelped to further accelerate the growth of the already substantial e-learningsector in the city. This growth has been assisted by the arrival this year of thefirst phase of the Sheffield Digital Campus, a 600,000 sq ft development in thecity centre specifically designed for digital and technology businesses. Thesector will also benefit from the Digital Region, a high profile £100m pilotproject that will be completed in 2012, to roll out next generation broadbandacross Sheffield and South Yorkshire.

James WilsonInvestment ManagerCreativesheffield

T: +44 (0)114 223 2345E: [email protected]

http://www.creativesheffield.co.uk/

mailto:[email protected]


II About Learning Light

Learning Light is a centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and learningtechnologies in the workplace.

Our knowledge base contains over 400 papers offering insights & advice onhow to utilise e-learning & learning technologies. We have undertaken aSystematic Literature Review of the available papers on the effective use of e-learning, in conjunction with the University of Sheffield.

Learning Light works closely with both the University of Leeds & Sheffield, ourmost recent joint publication is: “The Use of e-Learning in the Workplace: ASystematic Literature Review” by Maggie McPherson, School of Education,University of Leeds, Miguel Baptista Nunes, Department of InformationStudies, University of Sheffield and David Patterson, Learning Light.

Learning Light operates www.e-learningcentre.co.uk one of the leadingresources on e-learning in the UK.

Learning Light is supported by Yorkshire Forward, the regional developmentagency for Yorkshire and the Humber.

http://www.e-learningcentre.co.uk/


The Authors

David Patterson

David Patterson gained 20 years general managerialexperience, including strategy and planning, sales andmarketing and supporting change programmes in thefood distribution industry, before enrolling at theUniversity of Sheffield to study for a MSc ininformation systems, sparking his interest in e-learning. He has worked for Learning Light for fouryears, where he provided business development adviceand investment support to e-learning and learningtechnologies businesses across Yorkshire. David hasmaintained a close link with the university and utilisesthe network to continue his research interest in e-learning and information systems.


Glynn Jung and Learning Leadership

Glynn Jung is widely known across the UKand North America in both Learning andDevelopment and Technology EnabledLearning circles. From his early days (1972)in training at IBM’s Research Labs.where he worked with mainframe CBT blendedwith books and U-Matic videotapes, to his mostrecent market research and learning strategyprojects in Europe, Middle East and North America…he’s been around a bit.

Learning Leadership is a small organisation formedby Glynn in 2003 after nearly 19 years withThomson NETg as, variously,Head of Consulting, Head of SAP Business Unit andfinally head of special projects outside the USA.Projects scaled from 245000 learners in 87 countriesto 20 teachers in a primary school. In 2003Glynn started to develop new ways of achievingimproved performance and working relationships,using technology when appropriate, with improveddiagnostics to pinpoint priorities and focus energiesin learning. Now part of a virtual networkof small organisations which Glynn has broughttogether, Learning Leadership works in public,private and third sectors, including in the fieldslearning strategies, relentless changeand resilience, team-repair and managerial coaching.Glynn is regularly commissioned by organisationsto research, report and advise on specificlearning issues and develop strategies in business,health and the community. He also leads blended learningdevelopment projects for commercial and non-commercial,most recently an interactive-video programme on subconsciousbias conducting appraisals


Gill Broadhead

Gill Broadhead has specialised in learning & developmentprogramme design and implementation that optimiseslearning technologies, for more than 15 years. Previously aslearning and development consultant for the royal mail sheassumed a lead role in the design of core skills learningpathways to support people development and enhance theperformance of 164,000 operational employees. Theprogramme was designed to meet the needs of the businessand establish a flexible workforce with career developmentopportunities. In addition, her projects included thedevelopment of an on-line regulatory complianceprogramme for more than 1000 customer facing employeesto assist the transfer of knowledge and best practice into theworkplace to meet business critical timescales. Prior to thisshe was training manager for BT where she was responsiblefor designing people development and engagementprogrammes to align to business and training need forspecific business operational units.


III Acknowledgements and thanks

We would wish to extend our thanks to Yorkshire Forward, Sheffield Chamberof Commerce and Sero Consulting who have all supported Learning Light andespecially to Creativesheffield for their support and sponsorship of this report.

But, most importantly our thanks go to the following companies andindividuals we were able to interview for this research report.

Company Interviewee Web site and AboutAssessment 21 Gerard

Lennoxhttp://www.assessment21.com

Assessment21 offers a genuine 21stcentury approach to assessment andmarking - taking e-assessment waybeyond multiple choice and lower learninglevels.

Aurion Learning Dr. MaureenMurphy, MD

http://www.aurionlearning.com

Aurion Learning is an award-winningeducational design company founded bythe current Managing Director, Dr.Maureen Murphy. Aurion Learning designsinteractive and motivational online learningprogrammes and learning support toolsincluding online continuous professionaldevelopment, (CPD), 360 degreeassessment and performancemanagement. Aurion Learning has astrong track record in the public sector,education, health and central governmentas well as the private and Voluntary &Charity sectors.

BTL BobGomersall

http://www.btl.com

BTL Group Ltd provides technologysolutions for e-Assessment and e-Learning. We provide a turnkey service forthe design, scripting and production oflearning packages, including componentssuch as needs analysis, assessment,portfolio kits, courseware and accreditationtools. We provide both the on-screenassessment content and the deliverysystems and services.

http://www.assessment21.com/

http://www.aurionlearning.com/

http://www.btl.com/


DESQ David Squire www.desq.co.uk

Since 1998 we have been creatinginnovative and exciting digital learningexperiences. We bring the best of newmedia to learning. We blend entertainmentand education, learning and play. Wemake digital learning materials to supportformal education in schools and collegesas well as informal learning experiences.

e2train Rob Caul http://www.e2train.comBased in Cirencester (UK), we have beendelivering award-winning learning andperformance technology solutions since1995 to an enviable portfolio of customersacross a diverse range of business sectorsthat have all benefited from our experienceand expertise.e2train is a proven andreliable supplier to both the public sectorand blue chip private sector corporations.e2train team has had a solid track record indelivering both off-the-shelf and bespokelearning systems.

eOrigin Mike Mulvihill http://www.eorigen.com/

eOrigen is a leading producer of highquality media-based training andcommunication programmes. Workingcollaboratively with clients we developexceptional solutions that entertain,educate and, most importantly, empowerpeople.

We’ve found that compromise is not theanswer. After all, today’s media literateaudience can’t be expected to deal withanything that’s not immediate andmemorable. We’ve been designing trainingfor many years so we understand whatmakes good learning – the focus must bethe user.

People absorb information by seeing,hearing and interacting. Video can showhow things need to be done or bring highdrama to a dull procedure. Used correctly,rich-media will get the point acrossinstantly.

http://www.desq.co.uk/

http://www.e2train.com/

http://www.eorigen.com/


Epic TracyCapaldi-Drewett

http://www.epic.co.uk

Since 1986 we’ve developed over 5,000hours of e-learning carefully tailored toeach client’s needs. And our passion for e-learning design is endorsed by over 50industry awards.

Fisc David Smith http://www.fisconline.co.uk

The FISC E-Learningonline™ platformallows companies of any size to create,manage and distribute online learning onany subject matter, quickly, easily andinexpensively.

Futurate JonathanGrove

http://www.futurate.com

We collaborate with our clients to craft highimpact print and mission critical websitesand software; and we apply our expertiseto producing effective digital strategy,e-Learning, usability and technical webstandards.

i-education MichaelWilkinson

http://www.i-ed.co.uk/iamlearning.shtml

i- am Learning is a CURRICULUMONLINE APPROVED, personal revisionand assessment system which usesgames based learning to make revision funand interactive.

I am Learning can be used stand alone orwill integrate with your Learning Platform,providing ready-made curriculum linkedrevision and assessment material instantlyin your VLE.

Intellego Andy Green http://www.intellego.co.uk

Intellego Group is a learning andcompliance solutions specialist. Withdomain expertise across the healthcare,retail and financial services markets,Intellego works with organisations to solvechallenges in the following areas: 1)Learning infrastructure 2) Performanceimprovement and 3) Compliancemanagement. Intellego is an AIM listedPLC headquartered in Teddington with a

http://www.epic.co.uk/

http://www.fisconline.co.uk/

http://www.futurate.com/

http://www.i-ed.co.uk/iamlearning.shtml

http://www.intellego.co.uk/


creative team based in Newcastle.Kineo Steve

Raysonhttp://www.kineo.com/

We bring fresh thinking and innovation todeliver high quality e-learning that startswith great design and follows through tosuccessful delivery.We deliver learning solutions for some ofthe world's leading organisations. Theserange from 20 minute rapid e-learningmodules delivered in days, to 20 hourcustom solutions; and from hosted onlinelearning portals to capability building withinternal teams.We're passionate about new technologyand how it can enhance learning andperformance. We've got the design anddelivery experience to make things happenfast. We're committed to helping our clientssucceed with their performance andlearning goals.

LINECommunications

Steve Ash http://www.line.co.uk/

We have been delivering interactivelearning and communications since 1989.We help our clients develop their businesscase for it, and then deliver everything fromdesign, through content development to fulltechnical implementation.

My KnowledgeMap

Rob Arnsten http://www.myknowledgemap.com/

MyKnowledgeMap today has a wide-ranging set of interests, covering allaspects of learning technology. We haveworked as the lead partner on nationalNHS infrastructure projects, helped tosupport many of the UK's Sector SkillsCouncils and National Skills Academies,and developed complex systems forUniversities, building on their existinginfrastructures. We have run trans-nationalprojects, and formed developmentpartnerships in Eastern Europe.

Peakdean Peter Ross http://www.peakdean.co.uk/Peakdean Interactive offers unrivalledexpertise, high levels of technicalcompetence and a wealth of experience inall areas of e-learning, blended learning

http://www.kineo.com/

http://www.line.co.uk/

http://www.myknowledgemap.com/

http://www.peakdean.co.uk/


solution development and performancesupport.

Pixelearning Kevin Corti http://www.pixelearning.com/

PIXELearning is a world-leading providerof immersive learning simulations and'Serious Games' for organisational learningand development, business education andmarketing communications.

PTK Training PatrickFitzpatrick

http://www.ptktraining.com

PTK Training is a learning anddevelopment organisation, successfullydelivering bespoke e-learning andinstructor learning solutions to both theprivate and public sector.

We believe in delivering high interactive,challenging and exciting learning. Byidentifying the critical needs of yourbusiness and the infrastructure / logistics inplace our approach enables us to achievesignificant results for you

Real Projects Scott Hewitt http://www.realprojects.co.uk/

Using our creativity and experience wedesign custom e-learning modules thatbenefit your learners and yourorganisation. Working with your contentexperts we discuss the options that areavailable to create compelling and creativee-learning solutions.Working with your content we can help todesign and develop your e-learningmodules and deploy them quickly. If youhave existing training material such asPowerPoint slides we can quickly andeffectively transform your content.

Safari on-line MartinCollinson

http://www.safaribooksonline.com

Today Safari Books Online offers a depthand breadth of technical content that noother electronic reference resource comesclose to matching. Safari Books Online hasbecome the trusted search for technologyinformation. Without question, Safari is fastchanging the way that corporate,academic, and training organisations

http://www.pixelearning.com/

http://www.ptktraining.com/

http://www.realprojects.co.uk/

http://www.safaribooksonline.com/


access information.Skillsoft Kevin Young http://www.skillsoft.com

SkillSoft is a leading provider of e-learningand performance support solutions forglobal enterprises, government, educationand small to medium-sized businesses.SkillSoft enables business organisations tomaximise business performance through acombination of comprehensive e-learningcontent, online information resources,flexible learning technologies and supportservices.

Virtual College BobGomersall

http://www.virtual-college.co.uk

Founded in 1995, Virtual College hasdeveloped into one of the UK's leadingproviders of total solutions within thee-learning arena.Our key objective has been to helpenhance the traditional learning solutionthrough the careful integration oftechnology.This total solution embraces all aspects ofthe learning experience and, unlike manyother e-learning providers, extends toactual programme/qualification delivery -resulting in a unique blended deliverysolution. The knowledge and experiencethat this delivery provides helps ensurethat we strive to continually improve thesolution.The company has developed acomprehensive product range focusedspecifically on helping businesses improvetheir performance through the adoption ofnew ways of learning.

Webanywhere Sean Gilligan http://www.webanywhere.co.uk

WebAnywhere Ltd has been establishedfor over seven years and providesinnovative website and multimediasolutions to schools in England, Wales,Scotland and Northern Ireland. As aleading edge technology focusedcompany, we are always up to date withthe latest Internet trends anddevelopments. We are well placed todeliver the full range of ICT, including full

http://www.skillsoft.com/

http://www.virtual-college.co.uk/

http://www.webanywhere.co.uk/


training for your staff.

Since 2002, we have dealt with primary,secondary, nursery and specialeducational needs establishments. As wellas web design and content managementservices, we offer a wide range ofadditional products, such as surveys, pupileRegistration and Google Analytics, plusfun, interactive technology, such as radiopodcasting and video – 'vodcasting'.

The Workshop Mark Pearce http://www.theworkshop.co.uk

We design and develop world-class,innovative learning solutions that createtangible business results.Our products engage, enthuse and inspirelearners and deliver accreditedqualifications. We have the skills andexperience in-house to develop learningsolutions in all media, and are worldleaders in e-learning and accessibilityissues.

Xoolon MartinSpence

http://www.xoolon.com/

Xoolon is an online interactive sportscommunity bringing together schools,pupils, clubs, associations and governingbodies within the sporting industry. Eachschool has access to their own internallyeditable PE website enablingcommunication and assessment aroundsport and fitness.

The opinions and analysis put forward in this report are those of the authorsalone.

http://www.theworkshop.co.uk/

http://www.xoolon.com/


1. Introduction

1.1 background to the report

In January 2007 Learning Light commissioned a briefing paper on thee-Learning market in the UK, “UK e-Learning Report” which we posted on oure-Learning Centre website www.e-learningcentre.co.uk .

The Report has since become our mostly frequently visited and downloadedresource but the rapid rate of change in our industry means we need to beable to respond to the increasing requests for advice and information receivedby Learning Light with a new, comprehensive Report.

The focus of the new report is similar to that in 2006, but we have necessarilyupdated the content to reflect the changes and trends within both the industryand the UK marketplace. We also include Appendices including the latestCIPD survey of e-learning and pundits’ prophecies for 2009 and beyond somecomments on the accuracy (or otherwise) of earlier prophecies. Weparticularly seek to offer positive suggestions for both commercialopportunities and for how e-learning can deliver rapid ROI and performanceimprovements to organisations and communities in these turbulent times.

In addition to our own experience and expertise within Learning Light we’vedrawn on independent sources, including:

o Seb Schmoller, Bersin, Learning Leadership,, David Wilson atElearnity.

o BECTA, e-skills, Towards Maturity, DCKTN and The Digital Britain2009 Strategy, industry SIGs and research bodies

o Training Outsourcing Inc., UK industry leaders and niche players)o Game Based Learning (GBL) practitioners

An important part of the process of information gathering and interpretationhas been a series of interviews with organisations engaged in the e-learningmarket, from micro-businesses developing innovative technologies toestablished major service and product suppliers in the UK.

Our goal has been to provide both suppliers and purchasers with anunderstanding of what’s possible, what’s available and where e-learningservices and products are going. We also comment on the convergence oftechnologies and design techniques for business, entertainment, gaming,learning and assessment. Finally, we include some analysis of public sectorprocurement patterns derived from the Learning Light Market Intelligence andTender Information Service.



2. Executive Summary

This report is designed to offer an overview of what we believe is the presentstate of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry.

We begin by offering a brief model of what we believe is the present workingdefinition of what is meant by e-learning and learning technologies, and weare indebted to Michael Allen for his definition and illustrations.

It is from this that we put forward our proposition that the UK e-learning andlearning technology industry is indeed flowering!

We spend the next sections setting out the evidence that we believeunderpins this proposition.

This report began as a simple attempt to update the report written by JohnHelmer on behalf of Learning Light valuing the UK e-learning industry. It isfrom this original report that our analysis begins, but one we have significantlydeveloped by both interviewing a number of leading players (vendors) in theindustry to ask their view of the market and by further seeking to quantify themarket size.

However, we begin by updating John Helmer’s work with “what is going on” inthe industry and draw some historical comparisons with other reports, such asEpic’s market report.

This series of semi structured interviews were conducted over 2 months in2009, with over 24 companies spread across the UK. The edited narrative ofthe interviews is included in an appendix with the full version of the report,and a synopsis in the short version.

The principal finding is that the UK e-learning industry remains robustlypositive in its view of the market and the prospect for continuing growth. Theinterviews also sought to understand the dynamics of the industry as it sawitself, its ability to change and adapt to new technologies and business modelsand its views of the likely structure of the industry in years to come.

We have drawn on our own financial modeling, the on-going and valuablework of John Helmer and other research made available to us to assess thesize of the market. In truth we can now offer a “tri –angulation” of what webelieve the market size to be and the likely growth potential.

The financial modeling and third party research all correlated in a robustlypositive trend of continued and significant growth for the UK e-learningindustry. The market size estimates varying between £300 million to £450million, and growth rates forecast of between 6.7% and 8%.


Finally we present a set of trends, both technologies and market drivers whichwe believe will underpin this growth, again based on our interviews with thecompanies, and other research and opinion gathered.

Our premise being that this industry “flowering” is based not just on organicgrowth as more and more companies seek to utilize e-learning and learningtechnologies – though we do highlight that training companies (sometimes alittle unfairly seen as the enemy of e-learning in the UK!) and more mediumsized enterprises are adopting e-learning, but that there are other factors areat work.

One key factor highlighted is the role of marketing departments incommissioning learning to support customers, and secondly the adeptnesswith which the UK e-learning industry is adopting and exploiting new mediumsof delivering learning is crucial to the industries growth trajectory.

This is illustrated in how the UK’s e-learning industry has adopted gamingand immersive learning scenarios, rapid development tools and is perhapsmore expert in its adoption of Web 2.0 and Social networking than the ITindustry and is on the cusp of delivering true “portable flexible learning” – oras we search for another cool term - m.learning 2.0!

It is the fascination of both the learning and development community and themarketeers particularly with social networking that bodes so well for thee-learning industry.

Despite the difficult times, resulting in undoubted downward price pressureand cuts in training budgets and public sector projects we believe that theUK’s e-learning industry, and its two principle hubs, Sheffield and Brighton areset fair to weather the economic downturn. There is no doubt that companieswill come and go, just as they did in easier times. We can only reflect theoptimism and confidence, the innovation and enthusiasm and the e-learningindustries undoubted focus on delivering the right learning for the individualand organisation that so characterised our research findings.


3. What is e-Learning?

What is e-learning? There are many terms and definitions applied to thisparticular genre of learning. We have used e-learning and learningtechnologies as our principle terms of descriptive reference.

Previous terminologies used have included “Computer Based Training” (CBT),“Tele-learning” and still the quite widely used expression “on-line learning”.Increasingly we see the term “Computer Enhanced Learning”, we have alsoseen “Computer Mediated Learning” used as a term.

In attempting to answer this we have turned to Michael Allen and his work“Creating Successful e-learning” (Pfeifer 2006) as a starting point.

3.1 e-learning - definitions

Allen describes or defines e-learning like this:

“The term e-learning applies to the broad range of ways computing andcommunication technologies can be used for teaching and learning.”

He does add –

“Some uses are effective – magnificently so. Others are not.”

3.1.1 e-learning components

Allen then seeks to illustrate the components referred to as below:


Allen proceeds to offer a second definition to overcome the issues around justsimple presentation of content, and provides the following definition:

“e-learning is delivery of carefully constructed instructional eventsthrough computing technologies.”

This Allen argues is a more useful definition as it excludes simplecommunication, unless they are used in a context configured for learning.

Accordingly we present two more diagrams seeking to define andconceptualise e-learning, firstly a slightly amended version of Allen’s tosupport the use of communication and publishing of e-learning:


3.1.2 e-learning, e-publishing and learning tools

And secondly, in the view of the reports authors, and in the light of theinterviews undertaken with twenty plus e-learning companies we feel that


below we illustrate how e-learning is evolving – indeed flowering.

This model seeks to build and illustrate for the purposes of this report thewhole fragrant flower that e-learning and learning technologies is.

3.2 How e-learning is flowering

Learning resourcese-learning 2.0

Learning devices

How e-learning isflowering

(Based Michael Allen’s model)

Can all of this flowering really have happened in two years, well, below is a


slide Learning Light began delivering more than three years ago, developedby our then colleague Jane Hart.

From automation to innovationautomation

innovation

online versionsof f2f courses(web-based

training)

CONTENT

staticHTML

new tools:blogging

wikispodcasting

RSSsocial networking

Web 2.0

Web 1.0

In the Workplace

new ways oflearning

e-Learning 2.0

formal,instructional

self-paced courses

INDIVIDUALLEARNING

informal,workflow-based,

embedded learning

ORGANISATIONALLEARNING

CONTENToutsourced,or in-housespecialists

SOLUTIONSrapid e-learning,

free Web 2.0 toolsSMEs and others

largeorganisations

small/medium-sizedorgs

e-Learning 1.0

SHARINGCOLLABORATION

SYNDICATION

Niche specialists

e-Learning 2.0

Indeed 2009 saw the publication of e-learning 2.0 by Anita Rosen, with thecover subtitle “Proven practices, Emerging technologies to Achieve realresults”.

This book reviewed the range of technologies now available.

The big question is what are the next petals to be added to the e-learningflower!

The challenge and purpose of this report is to understand the e-learningmarket and how it is flowering and what new petals will burst into bloom, will itbe learning devices and mobile learning, or will it be e-learning 2.0 andinformal learning as the tools to create learning organisations.

4.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market

4.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007

In April 2007, following the Learning Light study, the author of that paper JohnHelmer released a new report on the “Movers and Shakers” in the U.K.e-learning industry, based on a study carried out by Epic. The Epic studyidentified 157 companies providing e-learning services in the UK but researchwas limited to those whose financial performance is available from Companies


House, 34 in total. This excluded major players like Tata, Line and Brightwavewhich from our perspective made the survey of limited value, particularly sinceit’s generally accepted that 8-10% of revenues nationally are generated by theTop Ten players on any list.

The study also, understandably, tended to focus on competitors to Epic orplayers in Epic’s market sectors (e.g. Defence)

John had previously offered 3 listings in the Learning Light 2007 study, whichwe have updated and which appears in the tables below.

We follow the tables with an update on the fortunes of the 34 companieswhich Epic studied in detail.

4.1.2 UK’s e-Learning players

In this Section we bring up to date the tables of players included in theprevious Report, viz.:

o large companies active in the UK with e-learning as a non-core activityo companies principally engaged in e-learning as core businesso companies featured in the 2007 “Movers and Shakers” report

4.1.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies

The majority of e-learning businesses in the UK are micro-businesses orSMEs meaning they do not have to submit full accounts to Companies House.This also includes UK registered trading arms of multinationals. Consultanciesin particular are typically small and often invisible to sector scrutiny becausethey operate as Associates for big organisations, particularly IT companies,training companies and outsourcing organisations.

We are also witnessing the emergence of social enterprises, CICs and not-for-profits within the industry, helped by access to Open Source technologies.

Because there are so many tiny consultancies in the industry in the UK wehave decided that a list of their names would add little to the value of thisReport. At Learning Light we are committed, however, to supporting theinterests of this community, particularly in Yorkshire and Humberside, andmaintain and develop a comprehensive registrar of consulting organisations inthe UK.

Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-coreactivity

Accenture Amaze BDP MediaBSG BT CapitaComputer SoftwareGroup

Gatlin Frost & Sullivan

HP I BM ILX Group plcKaplan KnowledgePool Logica CMG

The UK e-learning Market

Macromedia Europe Ltd Matchett Group NIIT UK, CognitiveArts and Element K

Oracle Parity PearsonPlateau Systems PPI Learning Premier ITQA Raytheon Reed Learning plcRhema Group SAP UK ThalesTribal Group Vega

Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in e-Learning

aardpressAbsolutely TrainingAcademy InternetAcademee (now part of OliverWyman)AccessPlanITAtlantic Link LtdAtlas Interactive LtdAttic LearningAuralogAurion LearningBalance LearningBBC Worldwide Interactive LearningBdM DevelopmentBlackboardBourne Training (now merged withRedTray)BrainvisaBridge2Think LtdBridge-LearningBrightwaveBTL Group LtdBYGC2 WorkshopCan StudiosCaspian LearningCIA TrainingCobent LtdCoggnoComplyWiseCopia (now part of InCorousCourse-Source LtdCross KnowledgeCylixDACG Limited

Information TransferInsite Objects InterwiseIntellegoJenisonKineoKnowledge SolutionslearnDirectLearningGuideLearningMotionLearning PoolLineLM Matters LtdLMD Learning Solutions Ltdm-learningMohiveMusic FactoryMycourse Limited

tellego)

MyKnowlegeMapNetDimensions LimitedNetviewer GmbH

© Learning Light Limited 200925

New Wave LearningNoor InformaticsNuJuiceOctober SystemsOpen Mind LtdOmniplexOutstartPageForward LearningPanvivaPeakdeanPixelearning LtdPlateau Learning SystemsRedTrayRosetta Stone Language LearningSafari e-ReferenceSaffron


datango AGdatmedia LtdDeltaNet InternationalDesqDTV

Sales 101SanScripSeminarSerco learningSimulacra Media Ltd

e2traine4LearningEchelon PublishingEdvantage GroupEedo KnowledgewareE-learning WMBElectrovisionElement K (now subsumed in NIIT)Ellerton Training Services LtdEmbrace LearningEngage revisionENIEnlightenment ProductionseOrigenEpicEQHO Communications LtdETS Europe UKFISCFuel EuropeFullard LearningFuturateFuturemediaGBS Corporate TrainingGiunti LabsGlobal Learning AllianceHappy ComputersHarbingerHarlequin Training SolutionsHeadlight CommunicationsHT2 ltdi-educationIdigiconikonamiIMC (Formerly Communication AG)InfinityInfobasis LtdInformation Multimedia

SkillGate LtdSoftware Training Technology (STT)Sponge UKSSR-iSTAR Consulting LtdTata TISTeknicalTelematicaTexthelp Systems LtdThe Orange Group LtdThe Working ManagerThirdforce (embraces former brandsElectric Paper, AV Edge and CLM.Mindleaders name still retained)Time2studyTraineasy LtdTrainer1Trax UK LtdTribal education servicesTrivantisTTS Europe LtdUmbel (TfA Group)UpskillVideo ArtsVTN TechnologiesVuepointWalkgroveWatsoniaWorkshopWBT SystemsWebanywhereWebarchitectsWired Red UK LtdXperienceXoolonXyleme


Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007)

The 34 companies in the Epic 2007 study; how they are faringCompany CommentsAcademy Internet bought by RedTray February 2009Adval Group defunctAssima going strongAtriumCommunications

disappeared

Attic Learning disappearedEasy i now formally known by name of parent company SAI

Group, compliance specialistsEBC sold to Futuremedia, who in turn were acquired by

EdvantageGroupEnlight disappearedEpic Bought by Huveaux Group in 2005 and sold to

entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008FT Knowledge Going strongFuel IT acquired by LRN (compliance training specialists) and

renamedFuturemedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroup from Norwaygtslearning The driving force in CompTIA e-learning for IT

industry. Going strong.Happy Computers Continues to win awards for its e-learning and blended

learning.Imparta Still a force to be reckoned with especially for Sales

and Marketing trainingIvy Learning (IvySoft)

Budget end of market.

Jenison One of the success stories of UK industry. Grown froma budget off-the-shelf supplier to a recognised force inthe industry

KnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the worldlearndirect Solutions Still in there, never really cracked the corporate

market but still arguably the largest supplier of level 1and 2 training in Europe

LRI Strong player in leadership and management marketMARIS Technologies Still going strong; uses offshore productionOutstart Major player in LCMS sectorPennant Track record in defence, nuclear and heavy industryPTT Pretty solid player in IT training marketQuestionMark Long established online survey and assessment

software supplier


Redtray Still growing both organically and by acquisition(Bourne, Academy Internet etc).

RTIX acquired by Ultimate Software in October 2006 andbrand name disappeared

RWD Technologies 21 years old, this US-led has successfully emergedfrom the SAP / ERP training sector to become a majorperformance management supplier, including e-Learning

Saba US-led dominant force in big-budget HCMS marketSkillSoft Although the massive 3-5 year library deals are

declining in popularity it’s hard to fault SkillSoft’sservice levels, product focus or strategy (e.g. acquiringBooks 24 X 7 and Thomson NETg). NETg mergerpretty much faultless.

SumTotal Originally Docent & Click2Learn, then further growthby acquisition (Pathlore 2005 and Mindsolve 2006)

Thirdforce Electric Paper, Mindleaders etc…steady growth inrevenues and now entered US market via Mindleadersbut also actively selling Mindleaders in UK

Thomson NETg goneTPG Academy The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008XOR Technology-led and successful across Europe in

major and online training programmes.


Table 4 Interviews and other news:

News and views on who’s doing what

o Academee merged with Oliver Wyman in 2009.o Atlantic Link is aggressively forging ahead with development tools and

platforms – firmly a top ten player.o Assessment 21 – interviewed: new launch business pioneering the

next generation of e-assessment. Attracted significant investment anddoing well.

o Aurion – interviewed: Belfast based company have carved a niche withCPD management systems, community portals and public sectorbespoke work.

o BTL – interviewed: well established business seeing solid growth ino e-assessment.o Brainvisa and Harbinger represent two of the new wave Indian

companies who have swiftly and successfully cracked both UK andUSA..

o Auralog, Rosetta Stone and GlobalEnglish continue to lead the way, indifferent styles, for the online language sector with Middle East andNew Europe major markets.

o Caspian Learning – doing well in the world of immersive learningsolutions, and the Thinking Worlds tool has attracted great interest.

o Cobent and ComplyWise In the general compliance technologies (nowpart of BSI) are the ones most commonly met.

o CrossKnowledge’s mix of blended learning products plus academicstudies and their own Faculty seems to be a winning mix.

o DESQ - interviewed: Sheffield based pioneer of gaming and learning,firmly believes the trajectory of e-learning will continue upward.

o e2Train - interviewed: LMS vendor continuing to win work, andconfident in the future

o e-origin – interviewed: Leading the trend back to film in learningo Epic – consolidated and coming back strongly with some real

innovation and energyo FISC – interviewed: with a blue chip client base and a firm focus in

compliance for financial services, FISC continues to prospero Futurate – interviewed: innovators extraordinaire, it is all about the

future with real insight.o i-education– interviewed: a young business already beginning to make

a global impacto Intellego – interviewed: Still doing well in the world of compliance and

regulation with in depth expertise in several vertical marketso Kineo –– interviewed: a major success story, Brighton and now

Sheffield, and heading – arriving in the USAo LINE Communications –– interviewed: very probably the UK market

leader in e-learning content, expanding into Europeo Mezzo Film – a film maker that launched the innovative Training Pod

concept – deploying e-learning on a data stick into the NHS


o My Knowledge Map – interviewed: making the virtual academy modelreally work, and more.

o Peakdean – interviewed: long established player who produces qualitye-learning for a wide range of blue chip clients

o Pixelearning – interviewed: It looks like a breakthrough forPixelearning, as they continue to prosper in the US Market

o PTK training – interviewed: New start for very experienced CEOo Real Projects – interviewed: Doing a great job in pioneering e-learning

in East Anglia. The driving force behind the Norfolk e-learning forumo Safari on-line – interviewed: Bringing books into the 21st centuryo Skillsoft – interviewed: Still a major player proving e-learning really

does work – true trail blazers, and still up there.o Umbel – apparently prosperingo Virtual College – interviewed: Another very successful practitioner of

the virtual academy modelo Webanywhere – – interviewed: UK market leader in providing school

web sites and one of only four UK Moodle partners – goinginternational from Keighley

o The Working Manager active in similar areas but each a differentproduct

o The Workshop – interviewed: The Workshop continues to prosper onits values of excellence and innovation, winning bigger and biggerclients.

o Xoolon – interviewed: bringing sport and e-learning together – and itwon’t stop at just sports – life style learning leaders.

With the industry containing so many SME organisations founded andmanaged by bright, creative people rather than entrepreneurs or strongoperations management it’s only reasonable to expect some will go stale orrun out of new ideas to meet new market situations.

4.1.3. Consolidations, Mergers & Outsourcing

In the run up to the publication of the 2007 Report there was the usual stringof acquisitions and mergers, as below,

o Saba completed acquisition of Centrao Edvantage Group completed acquisitions of Kognita and FutureMediao Blackboard and WebCT completed merger under the Blackboard brando FutureMedia completed acquisition of ebco QA and Interquad merged to form QA-IQ, (now QA again)o NIIT acquired Element Ko Redtray merged with Bourne Trainingo Academy Internet integrated key assets Adval


Earlier in this Report we revisited the Epic marketplace survey to see how the34 companies surveyed had fared. To show how the market moves on werepeat the table from that part of the Report.Company CommentsAcademy Internet acquired by Redtray February 2009Epic sold to entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008Fuel IT acquired by LRN 2007FutureMedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroupKnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the worldRTIX acquired by Ultimate Software in 2006SkillSoft acquired Thomson NETg 2007Thirdforce acquired MindLeaders in 2007 to (a) consolidate

Thirdforce presence in USA and (b)create competitorin UK to SkillSoft and Element K

Thomson NETg acquired by SkillSoft in 2007TPG Academy The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008

The trend to outsource L & D continues worldwide. One problem this canthrow up for suppliers is the disconcerting experience of turning up to a clientmeeting to find that the client’s HR operation has been outsourced, and thatinstead of talking to their regular contact they now have to negotiate with theoutsource provider – typically a competitor or with a different service focusand offering from the supplier.

HR, IS and logistics are typically the most outsourced functions in theenterprise, and the consideration that e-learning involves both HR and ISmeans that much heat is being generated by the idea of Learning BusinessProcess Outsourcing, (LBPO), which is no longer a peculiarly Americanphenomenon.

In the USA LBPO is big enough to merit its own league table and industryassociation (see: http://www.trainingoutsourcing.com/Index.asp) .

Several companies are making a determined play for the space in the UK,including Accenture, IBM, QA, KnowledgePool, Capita, Logica CMG, Serco,Cap Gemini.

This movement into managed learning is coming from both top down andbottom-up.

Top-down - Looked at from the perspective of a large managementconsulting firm the managed learning market is a subset of the HRoutsourcing market (which is itself a subset of the wider BPO market). Asclients move to outsource increasing numbers of their HR processes toexternal suppliers, Learning and Development comes into the frame as acandidate for wholesale outsourcing.

http://www.trainingoutsourcing.com/Index.asp)


Bottom-up - For training and e-learning companies, a move intomanaged learning arises out of an aspiration to get further up thefood chain within the organisations they supply, and to offset the‘lumpiness’ of their training revenues by locking clients into long-term programmes with recurring fees.

There is an argument that organisational e-learning is now toocomplex a beast – what with the proliferation of learning modalities(pod casts, wikis, blogs, virtual classroom, KM, etc. etc.) and newways of combining them coming on stream all the time - to be left tomere training managers. Outside (and outsourced) help needs to besought.


5.0 The Survey interviews

In seeking to validate further our research into the market, we undertook aseries of semi-structured interviews with a wide and representative group ofe-learning and learning technology companies.

The response to the survey we conducted with industry leaders in preparingthis Report has been so positive and the outcome so productive that we planto repeat the exercise on a regular scheduled basis going forward.

Here we hoped to both understand the mood of the industry, and capture itsviews as to current Market Trends, Technology Trends, and FutureIndustry Trends.

We spoke at length to 24 companies from Brighton in the South andNewcastle in the North, to Norwich in the east and to Belfast in the west, andof course as you would expect to a number of companies in Sheffield – wherewe believe the UK’s hub of e-learning is located.

We spoke to companies from the new and very small to the large and wellestablished, and those on that aspirational journey toward success(i.e. somewhere in the middle) as we sought to build our picture from anindustry perspective.

5.1 Market Trends

We began our interviews with a series of questions around the market trendsand prospects for e-learning in these difficult economic times.

5.1.1 Continuing growth…?

our opener being:

The e-learning industry has enjoyed considerable growth in the last fewyears, do you anticipate this growth to continue?”

The overall view: Looking good, with the economy driving demand…….And that’s not all……

Learning Light Synopsis:


The response to this question from the twenty four companiesinterviewed was one of undoubted optimism toward the future growthpotential for e-learning and learning technologies.

There is no doubt that the economy is viewed as both a challenge andan opportunity, but many other reasons were put forward for thisoptimism. Common views were that the e-learning market is still a longway from maturity and there remains abundant growth potential. Thatthe ROI models that e-learning can offer are getting more and morecompelling. That contrary to expectation demand has not fallen away inthe sectors where e-learning has traditionally done well.The growth potential was now being realized as e-learning and learningtechnologies had now passed the proof of concept stage, and interestlevels were getting higher and higher

While impressed, and pleased with the overall positive nature of theresponses we sought to probe deeper and understand what potential issuescould slow demand, and to identify whether there had been changes to thesales cycle as the economy contracts.

5.1.2 Signs of a Slowdown

Accordingly, our next two questions where:

“Are you witnessing a slowdown in demand and, if so, what factors doyou believe are causing this?”

And

“Have you noticed any changes in terms of sales cycles and startingprojects?”

The overall view: Some slowing in signing contracts and some delaysoverall, but an increasingly, opportunity rich environment

Learning Light synopsis:

The companies recognised that there were a number of factors thatdampened demand in certain areas and uncertainty in the economy hadslowed some sales cycles, but the demand drivers of speed, cost savingand overall rising interest in e-learning solutions have mitigated this.There is some noted downward price pressure in the market, and a trendtoward in-house development using the new content tools that areappearing on the market.However, we believe that the interest level and opportunity pipeline is


mitigating any negative or downward trend at present.

5.1.3 Importance of the public sector

Next we sought to focus on the importance of the public sector:

The public sector has always been of considerable importance to thee-learning and learning technologies industries.

We were keen to know more about patterns of public sector procurement andspecifically whether the creation of a specific public sector CPV code(Common Procurement Vocabulary- 80420000) for OJEU procurement ofe-learning services has had an impact. This CPV was previously attributed totraining services till June 2008.

Learning Light, with its Market Intelligence and Tender Information Servicetracks public sector procurement trends closely. Our view is that usage of thisnew CPV code is slow in its uptake, with public sector procurers using a widerange of CPVs in their procurement, some seeing e-learning as a customsoftware development service, and in one instance attributing a CPV relatingto ICT network infrastructure to procure social networking applications.

Accordingly our next question asked:

Have you noticed changes in public sector procurement patterns andopportunities?

And as the second part:

Has the pattern changed now that e-learning has its own CPV?

The overall view: The public sector is very important to the industry andthe trend remains positive


“We can almost hear the buyers’ pencils being sharpened!”

At present there seems to be little evidence of a major slow down in theuptake of e-learning by the public sector. However, we believe thatpublic sector expenditure will come under significant pressure.e-learning on the one hand could be well placed to deliver savings, bute-learning vendors will also experience greater challenges in justifyingthe ROI they can offer. There is no doubt that public sector procurerswill be demanding greater and greater price reductions, and it will beframework agreements and more competitive mini tenders that will drive


this cost saving agenda.! We were surprised that very few of the e-learning vendors were aware of the newly designated CPV for e-learningservices.

5.1.4 Where is business coming from

Our next question was designed to see how well the e-learning industry ismarketing itself, and whether levels of interest are growing outside sectorsthat have already adopted e-learning – i.e. will e-learning break out as has sooften been predicted, so we asked:

Is business coming from places other than expected?

The overall View: No but well Yes actually!


This provoked a mixed and almost contradictory response, with somecompanies telling us that they deliver tightly focused marketingoperations specialising in specific sectors and others that work iscoming from the unexpected or usually not!

It is apparent that business is coming from differing angles, the onemost significant trend is the increasing role marketing andcommunications departments are playing in using e-learning. Thesecond surprise is that business is still coming from sectors of industrythat has been badly hit by the recession such as automotive andfinancial services

5.1.5 Where are the threats

Our final and rather “cheeky” question for the first section was designed tosum up views toward the overall economy and introduce the next section ofthe interview as we asked our interviewees about the changes in technologyin our industry.

Which is the biggest threat to your business, the economy or newindustry developments?

The overall view: We are all realistic about the economy, but it seems tobe an opportunity, as do new industry developments


Technology did not appear to be perceived as a major threat, the majority ofresponders felt their organisation could adapt and utilise the new andemerging technologies.

As noted in the sections above, the industry was realistic about the economy,but the very firm view was that the recession was an opportunity more than anissue.


Neither is perceived to have precedence over the other, both are seen aschallenges and opportunities.

5.2 Technology Trends

Having raised technology as an issue or opportunity, we were keen to get amore detailed understanding from the companies of what will shape theindustry from a technical perspective.

We were keen to understand, for example, the impact open source and web2.0 would have on the e-learning industry. Were these developments likely tohave an impact upon the industries revenues and structure? Or would theyprove disruptive or an opportunity for further market growth?

5.2.1 The impact of open source

Our first question was devised to open the topic and bring the much discussedOpen Source technology to the fore. Some interviewees immediately focusedon Moodle, others did not.

Responses varied depending on the type of businesses, but the picture ismixed in its view, but confident in its ability to adapt and assimilate andcrucially confident enough to ensure its integration in pursuit of improvinglearner performance:

What do you feel is the impact of open source on the e-learningindustry?

The overall view: Its nothing new, we adapt to it and adopt it whereappropriate



This really was the Moodle, Ning, Snagit and Coggno etc… question. Inshort, it is our view that the adoption of Moodle and open source ingeneral will be driven around one of cost benefits analysis andappropriateness. If companies are looking for a rapid tacticaldeployment of an LMS – Moodle may well be the one. There is no doubtthat the M word stimulates some of the strongest views in the e-learningindustry. This however should alert the industry to a major change asthere are over 200 Learning Management Systems (LMS) and 75 VirtualLearning Environments (VLE) on the market, and just the mention of onecan produce such debate!

Discussion around open source in general can be seen as slightly morephilosophical, and its impact both in the industry and on the industries clients.


Beyond Moodle there was much less controversy about the role of opensource software. The e-learning industry proves itself at being adept inadopting and adapting all manner of new technologies

Technologies do not appear to be the issue to an industry such as this,it is much more about creating good learning in the eyes of thecompanies.

5.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0

Our next question focused on Web 2.0, an area of hype or an opportunity fore-learning, or even what was referred to as Learning 2.0. The responsesgenerated a wide range of responses, with almost all seeing the importance ofweb 2.0, but many offering a word of warning to temper the enthusiasmexpressed.

Do you feel web 2.0 technologies in general will grow in importance anduse in e-learning?

The overall view: Yes, Yes but use web 2.0 with a “health warning”

Learning Light synopsis

There is in our view huge demand emerging from learners (andincreasingly from their organisations) to translate what is happening inthe web 2.0 environment and translate the techniques and technologies


to the world of learning and development, and nowhere is this illustratedbetter than in the rise of social networking.Web 2.0 – or Learning 2.0 or whatever it is called and rebranded in futureyears is now here for the long term. It will evolve and improve andemerge in ways not yet considered by the mainstream of L&D, and willincreasingly overlap with the marketing and communications function.The companies interviewed reflected both the excitement and interest ofWeb2.0, but were quick to point out that the usage must be tempered byone of appropriateness – hence the health warning! We however believethat the e-learning industry is very well placed to benefit from thesetrends as we drive toward the new learning organisation.

5.2.3 Social networking and e-learning

Hence our next question, where we sought to focus on the rise of socialnetworking in particular:

How do you anticipate social networking environments impacting uponthe e-learning industry?

The overall view: Yes again- to anticipated growth and influence, butwith that health warning

Learning Light Synopsis

Open source, web 2.0 and social networking all add greatly to both thedebate and the opportunity. While some may see the new technologiesas a threat to more conservative business models, these technologiesundoubtedly provide huge opportunities to the content development andcreative companies in the e-learning eco-system. The threat to the LMSand VLE vendors is there, but again it appears that they too are adaptingto these developments and can take comfort in the innate andunderstandable conservativism of many private sector organisations toadopt these technologies.

In contrast it is our view that it’s the public sector – often seen as a latecomer to the e-learning industrythat is adopting the web 2.0 and socialnetworking applications. We believe this to be because firstly there is noexisting e-learning technology whose integration they need to considerand secondly because the culture of sharing good practice in theorganisation is often more established.

It is our view that these technologies will offer greater choice andgreater creative opportunities to improve the learner experience – which


the digital native learner, generation Y learner, or millennial learnerscomes to demand.

However, the industry must take care to ensure clients are not confused,overwhelmed or exposed.

We are confident that the e-learning industry is of a level of maturity nowthat it recognises that the crucial selection criteria of any learningtechnologies should be their appropriateness for each specific need.

It is interesting to note that the L&D community is hugely interested inthe power of social networking, but that it is the marketing andcommunications departments that are increasingly driving its adoption.

5.2.4 Future technology trends

Our final question for this section asked our interviewees to pick out the trendsthey sort as likely to be important in the industry in the coming years:

What new applications of technologies e.g. e-reference, online seminars,online coaching, e-assessment, mobile learning or serious gaming are youseeing or becoming interested in?

And

What other technologies have you noticed being introduced and used todeliver learning?

The overall view 1) Mobile – maybe this time, but its really about beingportable, 2) Games – going that way, keep it real and get it more real, butthe devices/consoles are a key consideration and their access isjealously guarded by manufacturers, 3)e-assessment has arrived, 4)don’t write off text – e-books and e-reference could be big…. 5) e-portfolio is now firmly established 6) content is still crucial and how youuse it is king!


It is difficult to summarize the wealth of views given to what was such anopen question, but the answers illustrate one of the key trends that runsthrough this industry review – the sheer creativeness and openness inadopting technologies for learning that this industry has. Indeed wewould recommend you read the interview narrative in the long version ofthis report.


Instead quite simply we reflect and agree with the overall industry viewas put forward above:

Mobile – maybe this time, but it’s really about being portableGames – going that way, - but not all the way onto consoles..yet?Devices make a difference – Nintendo DS or i-phones – cool ones arebest!Keep it real and make it more real – film and TV quality production oflearninge-assessment has arrivedDon’t write off text! – e-books and e-reference could be big….e-portfolio is now firmly established and e-Passports, includingSmartCards are part of the education worldContent and instructional design are still crucial, and how content isused is King!

It is interesting to note the still apparent disconnect between the videogames industry and the e-learning and learning technologies industry.We make no predictions as to how this disconnect will be overcome, butdo note the disparity in size of typical e-learning developers and videogames developers. Do see our interview section with leading gamingand learning developer Jake Habgood.

5.3 Future Industry Trends

In our third section we asked our respondents their views regarding thestructure of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry.

5.3.1 New business models

Our first question, given the characteristics of the industry was:

Do you feel new business models are impacting on the industry?

The overall view: Yes (but not so easy for new entrants) – tools drivenmodels, content aggregation models, new models to exploit IP, rapiddevelopment models, new relationships – partnerships and alliancesand SaaS – software as a service all feature in the future development ofthe industry



The e-learning industry is used to change and innovation, as many ofthe respondents pointed out, with new business models almost seen asthe norm. This creativity and innovation is only likely to accelerate.The barriers to entry from a technology perspective are not high, but thebarriers from a learning perspective are.We believe there will be a continuing trend toward collaboration andalliances both within the industry and in partnerships with ITConsultancies and training providers as “the blend” continues to bemore and more influential.The industry will continue – almost relentlessly - to adopt and adapt newtechnologies and techniques to deliver more effective and engaginge-learning. It is this innovative “colonisation” of new and emergentmodels that gives the industry its strength, and is responsible fordesigning in further growth.

5.3.2 Industry structure – mergers, acquisitions and liquidations

In our next question we asked about the structure of the industry, we werekeen to know what the industry felt about the likelihood of takeovers andacquisitions, given that this industry has seen quite a number, and wouldthere be an acceleration in this driven by the economic downturn. Likewisewould the number of new entrants to the industry slow, and the number ofliquidations increase?

Do you anticipate the industry structure changing in the next 12 months –mergers, acquisitions, new starts and liquidations?

The overall view, and not a surprising view given the e-learning industrymake up – which is principally one of Small and Medium Enterprises,especially in the content development sector was one of Yes we will seeconsolidation as companies try rapid growth strategies, Yes – we willsee continued new starts – often driven by take-over consolidations, butthis is the norm. and Yes we will see liquidations but we will also seelots of collaboration


We were intrigued to understand the industry structure and why thisapparent ceiling to growth, it was perhaps Mark Pearce at Workshop thatcrystallized our views on this matter:

“The industry has some similarities to the design and advertisingindustry, but has yet to see its “WPP” emerge.


This is probably because e-learning professionals have a slightlydifferent mindset and are more passionate about delivering goodlearning content than outright growth.”

The industry should be very attractive to new starts and technologybusinesses seeking new markets.

However, at the content development end the market competes oncreativity and cost, with an understanding of the learning requirement ofthe client often the key differentiator. It is these businesses that appearto have difficulty in scaling.

They then use and choose the appropriate technologies. It is this thatwill drive growing levels of collaboration and occasional consolidationby acquisition as larger companies acquire niche vendors. Indeed wemay see large service providers acquiring specialist content developers.

We also noted the trend in the industry to partner beyond the industryitself, the development of long term partnerships with IT consultanciesand with training providers was noted and highlighted by someinterviewees. We believe this evolving partnering with trainingbusinesses to be a significant trend likely to lead to a change in theindustry structure and provide foundation for further growth. As SafariOn-line’s Collinson puts it – more alliances than acquisitions.

Other models appear to have a differing market. Can tool vendorsbypass developers and supply direct to users? What role does genericcontent have to play in this market space?

Can large service providers in the LMS world supply to the moremedium sized companies or will Moodle come to dominate that market

5.3.3 Skill Shortages

Our final question was to understand the issues faced by the industry in skillsshortages and development.

Learning Light has tracked the e-learning jobs market closely in the Sheffieldcity region, and 2008 saw, we believe, an almost 20% growth in job numberson 2007, based on our survey research.

2009 has seen a change in the pattern toward skills requirements, withcompanies seeking to acquire skills on a “contractor” basis as opposed to afull time employment basis.


We believe this indicates a degree of caution in how the growth of thecompany payroll is managed, yet reflecting the continuing demand for skilledpersonnel. We have excluded the requirement for subject matter expertiseand instructional design services which is very often acquired on a contractbased procurement of services.

Consequently, while the number of vacancies in the Sheffield City Region fore-learning professionals appears to have only slightly declined compared tolast year, the type of employment offered has switched significantly from fulltime employment to contract employment.

Have you or are you experiencing skills shortages for employees or specialistsub contractors?

The overall view: Yes, without doubt

Seventeen (85%) of our interviewees reported skills shortages when seekingemployees or specialist sub contractors.

We propose to undertake a new piece of research in the coming weeks andmonths.


The skills issue appears to be quite complex and multi-faceted. Manycompanies reported across the board shortages – and are “alwayslooking for talent” as Workshop’s Mark Pearce puts it.

The biggest single specified requirement would appear to be a shortagein good quality Instructional Designers.

The most common theme across almost all the companies is a shortageof experience at quite a number of levels.

A number of companies – for example Line and BTL- have developed a“grow their own” policy.


6. 6. Trends in the market

6.1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000

The Hambrecht report “Exploring e-learning: a new frontier” in 2000 definedthree supplier segments in e-learning: Technology, Content and Services.Learning Light’s 2007 report commented on how the lines had continued tobecome increasingly blurred since then, with providers branching out intoother areas driven by client need and converging technologies changing theshape of what was possible.

6.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning

The 2008 Learning and Development survey included a special section one-learning. Key findings included:

o 57% of responders reported that they are using e-learning.o 27% plan to do so over the next year

Two statements seem to command near universal support.o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning'

(95% support)o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92%

support).

In organisations using e-learning, it is likely to be offered to about 60% of theemployees, but taken up by only 30%.

In using organisations, e-learning now accounts for 12% of “total training time”Only 7% of respondents including e-learning in their top three practices andonly 8% described it as “very effective”.

Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. As well as asking what percentageof training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) CIPD askedwhat this figure would be in three years time. This produced the answer 27%.This phenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has beenobserved in previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys.

What is striking is the inability of this sort of survey to define the wholetechnology-enabled learning spectrum… formal training; formal learning;informal learning; collaborative learning and JIT e-reference. Just as we arefinding it virtually impossible to size the market because it’s hard to find itsboundaries, so professional HRD practitioners cannot comment on learningforms outside their remit and often their cognisance.


Particularly interesting is Donald H Taylor’s response, below.

6.2.1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor

At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess ofcontradictions on e-learning.

Yet these figures, which might smack of woolly thinking, actually tell a clearstory of changing attitudes to learning technologies. They are also part of afundamental change occurring within the learning and development functionitself.

The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them.They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters; theyreflect actual learning and development practice today.

And the message is simple: for those that use it, e-learning is now simplyregarded as part of the learning mix, and practitioners are increasinglyconfident with it.

If people know what they’re doing with e-learning, this explains why only 7%considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. For them, this phrasing makes nosense. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learningpractice. e-learning is a medium of delivery. Any effectiveness depends not onthe medium itself, but how it is used.

Six years ago, the question could have made sense, because e-learning thenimplied something quite narrow. In 2002, e-learning essentially meant thedelivery of courses. In providing materials and a structure for self-study, it wassimilar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computer-assisted learning (CAL).

e-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via thelearning management system (LMS). In 2002, e-learning for most peoplemeant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrallyprepared or commissioned, with attendance and assessment data collectedby the learning and development.

In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning, those polled for thisCIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range ofelectronically delivered learning 2008, from LMS-delivered courses to EPSSand to the use of social networks and ….informal learning.

This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – inspite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the mosteffective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more thanthey did two years ago.


Total training time…the wording of (the survey) questions invites the respondent to consider thenarrow definition of e-learning. The very phrases ‘offered to’, ‘taken up’ and‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralised world of theLMS. If the survey had asked, ‘What proportion of your employees useGoogle, Flickr or access an online help system, or email/IM colleagues forassistance?’, the results would certainly have been different.

In other words, where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense ofwhat e-learning means, this survey shows comprehensively that in practice ithas gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is nowresolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau ofproductivity.

Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning, but cando much more besides. They will be part of a trend taking technology-supported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a socialexperience, and from a centralised ‘push’, to individually driven ‘pull’.In his essay for last year’s Reflections report, Charles Jennings of Reutersbemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning anddevelopment strategy. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chiefexecutive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be asinconceivable for a learning and development department not to have oneeither.

7. Role of large corporate suppliers

Large companies in IT, Business Consulting and Managed Services(e.g. IBM, Accenture, and Capita) who have traditionally offeredtraining to their clients, have seen opportunities in e-learning andfostered in-house operations. In some cases these have shownrapid growth, eclipsing their traditional stand-up training operationswith those companies. Here, entrenched client relationships and theability to offer the scale of operations that large clients need, give aninbuilt advantage over smaller, ‘boutique’ outfits.

The LBPO Top TwentyEvery year TrainingOutsourcing.com offers a listing of the Top 20 LBPOcompanies worldwide and the Top 20 IT Training companies. Unsurprisinglymany of the same big names appear in both lists. Training Outsourcing is nowplanning to release additional sector surveys including Learning Technologies.


The most recent Top 20 outsourcing companies list is as below. They’ve notbeen ranked because of the widely differing ways they book and allocaterevenues.

The Top 20 as at June 2008 (alphabetical order)Accenture ACS Adamant ConvergysCGS DDI Delta College ExpertusGenPhysics GeoLearning Global Knowledge IBMInnovatia Intrepid KnowledgePool LionBridgeLogica NIIT Element K Raytheon RWD

These ‘Top 20' companies indicated that their revenues were generatedthrough multiple solution areas. As in previous years, the largest percentagesof revenues came from training content development (33%) and delivery(27%) - see chart below for revenue breakdown of the 'Top 20”.

Revenue Segmentation Breakdown


8. The size of the UK market

It has always been difficult to give an overall size to the UK e-learning market,since companies like Accenture anin their financial reporting (and in solearning to boutique providers, provlarge number of UK players are eiregistered companies privately owrevenues fall below the Companiehow do we price WIKIs, Blogs andsharing tools, particularly free ope

One “best guess” stated in the lastotal value of the UK e-learning mato exceed £250m all told. InterestiReport for Learning Light, the authaverage revenues and number ofdifferent “best guess” of the UK mbeing between £500m and £700mspend. But you’d have to add in ab

A third approach (not based on repsuppliers) tackles this from a perceindustry sectors against forecast Gwe measuring when we talk aboutVideo Arts videos or DTV films eq

8.1 A forecasting model

8.1.1 background to the forecas

As noted above, in January 2007 wreport was published, our estimateand £250 million, and we believe t25%.

In the time between this report andsophisticated market forecasting mincluding our Market Intelligence a

Since the June 2008 update of thecodes, e-learning has become a reprocurement and OJEU we have bpublic sector procurement patterns

Our other variables we have mode


d IBM do not break out e-learning revenuesme cases outsource elements of their e-iding a risk of double counting). Also, a

ther privately owned UK companies or UKned overseas (e.g. Plateau Systems) ands House reporting threshold … And finally…all the other informal collaboration and

n source products?

t edition of this Report (2007) was that therket was greater than £160m, but unlikely

ngly within six months of producing theor John Helmer used a calculation based onidentified companies in the UK to suggest aarket for e-learning products and services as, i.e. nearly 4% of private sector trainingout £25m for UfI learndirect….

orted or “interpreted” revenues ofntage of training budget forDP for the UK. But again what aree-learning. Does web-delivered

ual e-learning?

t

hen our first report e-learning marketfor the market varied between £160 million

he market was enjoying growth of over

now, Learning Light has developed aodel, based on a series of variables,nd Tender Information Service.

CPV (Common Procurement Vocabulary)cognised code in the world of governmenteen able to gain far greater incite into.

led include the growth (or decline) in GDP,


the expenditure on training in the UK – which we believe is closely related tocompany turnover and hence GDP. We have also modeled what we believe tobe the level of interest and uptake of e-learning by companies andorganisations, and the proportions of training budgets being spent one-learning and learning technologies.

It is in the later two categories that Learning Light in addition to its closemonitoring of public sector procurement contract awards uses its unrivallednetwork of organisations and associates along with its research skills tosynthesize these key trends.

8.1.2 The Market in 2006

Accordingly on reflection (and with the benefit of our forecasting model andinformation service) we believe the market in 2006 to have been worthsomewhere near to £229 million. We do not however consider that the marketgrew as rapidly as we previously believed. Indeed we believe the market grewin the order of 12% from our 2005 reverse forecast measure of £203 million.

8.1.3 Adoption levels

We believe uptake of e-learning has grown amongst organisations steadilyfrom the low usage levels (30% of companies) forecast in 2004 to over 57%of organisations using e-learning in 2008 (CIPD Annual Survey 2008). Andinterestingly 82% of public sector organisations using e-learning, but only 42%of private sector organisations using e-learning.

The Learning Light model adopts a greater degree of caution with uptakelevels, we believe some 45% of organisations are using e-learning in 2008and we project growth to 47.5% in 2009.

8.1.4 Percentage of training budgets

It is more difficult to estimate the amount of overall training budgets that arenow directed toward e-learning. CIPD research indicates 12% of training timeis devoted to e-learning – a long way from the 30% in the USA! Indeed wehave seen even higher adoption level numbers in the USA – up to 50% oftraining delivered in the non education sector uses e-learning!

An analysis of a Toward Maturity survey indicates e-learning expenditure as apercentage of overall training to be 13%. The Learning Light model uses aslightly more conservative forecast for 2006 and 2007, with 12% in 2008 anda forecast of 13% in 2009.

This reflects our view garnered from the industry that the UK e-learning


market is not mature.

8.1.5 Continued growth

Based upon our assumptions we believe the market continued to grow into2007 and 2008, with growth rates of 13% to 13.5%, and accordingly we wouldvalue the market in 2008 to have been worth £294 million.

Our forecast model and its assumptions are underpinned by a markedincrease in employment in the industry in Sheffield – a city with arguably theUK’s largest eco-system of e-learning and learning technology companies.

Learning Light with its partner organisation Creativesheffield undertook a skillsand employment survey in June 2008 which indicated a 20% growth inemployment numbers in the e-learning companies surveyed in the previous12 months.

Our ability to track public sector contracts awarded was able to identify anumber of significant contracts awarded to Sheffield based companies thataccount for 35% of the growth in the market from 2007 to 2008 alone!

8.1.6 2009 doom or gloom

How big will the slowdown be? Or will this be the defining moment fore-learning and learning technologies as companies turn to e-learning inincreasing numbers as a way to reduce training costs and even improve theirenvironmental credentials by traveling less for training!

The Learning Light model forecasts a 3.5% contraction of GDP, and this willwithout doubt be reflected in a reduction in training budgets as companies andorganisations cut costs and reduce employee numbers.

Indications from the USA, point to an 11% reduction in overall trainingexpenditure from 2007 to 2008 (Training Industry report). Our model sees theoverall training expenditure decline by £200 million in line with GDP to justover £5 billion.

Our £5 billion is principally the amount spent on training by companies andorganisations – including government departments based on the assumptionsthat training represents a % of company turnover. The UK Governmentspends £12 billion on adult skills (£4.5 billion on FE (Further Education) andadult skills and £7.4 billion on HE Higher Education. Source: Leitch Report2006.

We do however see a continued adoption of e-learning by companies – as


noted above to 47.5% and an increase in the percentage (of the reduced)training budget dedicated toward e-learning to 13%, from 12.3% in 2008.

Our forecast shows the e-learning market place growth to slow by more than50%, but stays in positive territory at a growth rate of 6.7%, and the industrybreaks the £300 million barrier with revenues of £313 million in 2009.

8.1.7 Higher and higher

If we accepted the CIPD level of uptake to be that 57% of companies now usee-learning we could value the market at more than £370 million for the noneducation market!

However, in 2009 we became aware of another research project undertakinga similar analysis such as ourselves, and were fortunate to be able to sharefindings.

This research indicated that we were perhaps a little cautious in our figures forthe UK and the market was closer to £450 million in the corporate and noneducation sector and an additional £150 million in the education sector. Inaddition these researchers forecast growth for the UK market at over 8%.

We accept that these forecasts are never likely to be completely accurate, andcan offer what can only be described as trends.

We believe we can now offer a valuation tri-angle made up of the work ofJohn Helmer, Learning Light and our research associate.

£0

£200

£400

£600

£8002006-7

2007-8

2008-92009-10

2009-10 projection 2Learning Light

John Helmer

Additional single forecast


8.1.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth?

e-learning is and continues to be a difficult market to put boundaries around,and in the context of the training and education market, e-learning appears tobe miniscule.

The series of interviews conducted indicate a strong belief in growth….

We do however believe that the future market for e-learning remains robust,with interest levels in e-learning continuing to grow. Learning Light operatesthe web site www.e-learningcentre.co.uk which is enjoying record numbers ofsite visitors.

Enquiries to ourselves regarding e-learning continue to grow, and we still seea significant growth of vacancies in companies in the Sheffield eco-system.However, we do note that the vacancies have changed in recent months fromfull time positions to fixed contract posts, reflecting the degree of uncertaintyin the market.

We believe the government initiatives with Train2gain will bring stimulus to thetraining market, and mitigate some undoubted decline that will take place andwhich will further underwrite the growth of the e-learning component of thetraining market .

We note an increasing trend to promote the environmental benefits e-learningcan bring, and while this in itself is not yet a major demand driver, it willcertainly underpin the e-learning market.

8.1.9 How does the UK compare with Europe

We have made some attempt to contextualize the UK market in the overallEuropean market. These figures are estimates, drawn from a number ofsources.

We believe the UK e-learning market to be along with Scandinavia the mostdeveloped markets in Europe. We believe the overall Scandinavian market tobe worth €1 billion. This would compare to the UK’s market size of between€650 and €700 million, - which has probably declined in view of exchange ratechanges.

The Scandinavian market is forecast to grow at over 8%, a figure that couldequally be applied to the UK market, given their comparative maturity.



The next largest market is anticipated to be the French market with growthprojected at over 15%, but off a lower base – we would estimate at between€300 – to €350 million.

We believe that an aggregation of the UK, Scandinavia and France willrepresent over 80% of the European market at present.

Data for the rest of Europe – Germany, Eastern Europe and Southern Europeis difficult to obtain.

8.1.10 A US perspective

The latest (February 2009) Bersin research in the US market revealed thattraining spend per learner fell between 2007 to2008 and is likely to fall furtherin 2009. In large organisations expenditure on online learning also fell for thefirst time ever and there will be continued pressure in 2009. ASTD’s recentsurvey showed that over 50% of respondents are being challenged to do morefor less with their budgets.

Although there’s a glut of industry leaders and pundits around the globe willingto offer their predictions, you’ll find that these don’t necessarily become reality.In the appendices to this report you’ll see expert predictions (from eLearnMagazine) on what to expect through 2009, which may or may not accuratelyinform market growth estimates. MischSeb Schmoller’s review of expert predstacked up…

8.2 Sizing the market - summary

Repeatedly during our three month resoptimism for the industry. Some responot only the volume of business they wwas coming from. A number of MDs oduring our research and said it seemssomewhat prolonged winter break.


ievously you’ll also find in Appendix Dictions for 2008 and how they actually

earch project we encountered genuinendents admitted they were surprised byere signing up but also where the work

f Companies have come back to uslike “business as usual” after a


9.0. Industry Trends

In this section we present a synopsis that we believe from our research to besome of the key trends that will come to define the e-learning and learningtechnologies industry as it goes forward.

9.1. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice

The Learning Management System “LMS” is the most common technologyterm in general use in the industry, but there’s a raft of Management Systemsand platform acronyms in use :

The letter game:

o LMS = Learning Management System, oro LMS = Learner Management Systemo LCMS = Learning Content Management Systemo CMS = Course Management System (classroom and e-Learning

together)o CMS = Competency Management Systemo TMS = Training Management System (classroom only)o VLE = Virtual Learning Environmento MLE = Managed Learning Environmentso KMS = Knowledge Management Systemo EPSS = Employee Performance Support System

This area of the market is also one of the most contested, with a wide range ofvendors competing. However, one word did raise considerable interestamongst our interviewees – and seems to define a new category in thismarket, the open source VLE: Moodle.

9.1.2 Moodle

Our view, based on our research is that Moodle and indeed other open sourceVLE platforms such as Sakai will come to play an increasing role in themarketplace.

Moodle will support tactical quick and practical launches of e-learning, and wesee an increasing number of content development providers incorporating


Moodle into their offer as a way of expediting the delivery of an e-learningprogramme.

We are already seeing the emergence of a growing number of a Moodle “plugins” applications for both the corporate and education market. This can onlydrive further adoption of the Moodle platform.

We believe this already crowded LMS/VLE market will benefit from what werefer to below as “Compliance 2.0” and the growing interest in e-learning andlearning technologies in mid size corporate organisations and the mediumsized SME businesses will further drive adoption of both open source andproprietary applications.

9.1.3 Moodle Plug Ins

A particularly interesting addition to the market is Moodle plug-ins andwraparounds such as MOOMIS : Moodle MIS, which seems to cover off all theknown weaknesses of Moodle e.g. Communications, CompetencyManagement, CPD, Events Management, Groups, Performance Managementand Reports. It also offers a less clumsy interface.

From our perspective it’s quite often the simplest tools that are ofinterest…NING, JING and SnagIt for example and LMS vendors and Moodleplug in developers must take care, so as not to make their systems offeringsincreasingly complicated and cumbersome.

Both Kineo and Keighley based Webanywhere (one of only four UK Moodlepartners) see strong and continuing growth for Moodle in both the educationsector, (where Moodle is being effectively deployed and integrated with schoolmanagement systems) and in the corporate market.

9.1.4 Software as a Service (SaaS)

However, we do not believe that it is outright doom and gloom for the LMSvendors. Indeed it is our view that this market, though crowded will continueto grow. The value proposition between open source solutions and proprietarysoftware will become clearer, with price as only one metric of measurement inthe true cost of ownership calculation.

Two LMS vendors FISC and e2train both report that Moodle is having littleimpact upon their businesses.

LMS vendors will seek to adapt their business models by offering SaaSdeployments and deeper integration to ERP and HR systems that exist inclosed corporate worlds where open source solutions may not be viewed quiteso favorably as in the academic marketplace.


One privately commissioned survey in January 2008 identified hostedservices (ASP and Software as a Service) as becoming an increasinglyattractive alternative to capital investment in behind-the-firewallimplementations. This is certainly the strategy being pursued by e2train.

9.2. Content – How you use content is now King

9.2.1 Generic content:

SkillSoft absorption of the former Thomson NETg appears to havegone well and the new SkillSoft can demonstrate increased servicesand support services on a genuinely global basis.

Despite taking what SkillSoft described as their only real competitionout of the market, we continue to see a number of new andinnovative competitors emerge.

There’s an opinion that there has been a gentle decline in theperceived value of all-you-can-eat catalogue libraries, the fact thatthere are new entrants into the market indicates that the value ofgeneric content overall remains strong.

Indeed we are seeing added value services increasingly beingoffered with greater and greater levels of integration of content in tothese services, and we remain of the view that the creative use ofcontent, (be it generic or bespoke) will be the key differentiator.

9.2.2 e-reference systems and Academies

The net result has been the emergence of smaller libraries, induration, size and value, and the emergence of new categories in themarket: e-Reference systems and on-line academies.

Books 24 X 7 is undisputed leader in terms of volumes of digitisedbusiness books for on a knowledge engine. For IT technical contentthere are Safari Online’s e-Reference system and GetAbstract booksdigest system.

Europe and the UK are particularly well-served in this new e-Reference and knowledgebase sector:

The Working Manager, My Knowledge Map and Virtual College areexamples of developers pursuing the Academy model, all using anarray of competency assessment tools and federated search enginetechnologies.

Other examples include the Umbel system, a configurable andcustomisable supervisory and management knowledgebase. Thistask-based system can be customised to reflect clients’ own


competency models and competence frameworks.

Finally (though we know there are more, particularly niche marketplayers such as Intellego) we need to mention CrossKnowledge whoseem to be bridging the e-learning/ILT/e-reference marketssuccessfully.

9.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation

Bespoke content development has in the past been the healthiestarea of UK e-learning, perhaps due to the fact that a bespokeoperation carries less upfront risk than a products business.

We have seen very strong growth from a number of companies in this field,with several Sheffield based companies including the Workshop, Desq as wellas London and Sheffield based LINE Communications and Brighton andSheffield based Kineo all growing strongly.

Indeed our tracking of the Sheffield based companies saw 2008 as one ofconsiderable expansion in job numbers, a 20% growth in employmentnumbers.

Not a mouse is moved in anger until a customer has already agreed to buy theend result, and marketing costs can be kept fairly minimal. However, with e-learning becoming more established within large organisations, increasingprice pressure is beginning to be seen, and a questioning of the costs involvedin continually reinventing the wheel this way.

The demand for bespoke content development we believe will continue andget stronger and stronger. We anticipate (and indeed are seeing) that newgenres emerge using the values of TV and film production. This is true ofBelfast based Aurion Learning and Leeds based Mezzo films.

The demand for ‘realer’ and ‘realer’ and more relevant content will continue,manifesting itself in scripted scenarios and more and more sophisticatedimmersive learning scenarios and simulations.

The key defining element will be the capability of the industry to deliver goodlearning design. This more than any other factor we believe will be both abarrier to entry to the market and a potential barrier to growth.

We have also detected a change in attitude emerging amongst developerswho now seek to retain IPR to exploit products jointly developed with clients.This we believe will grow in significance in coming months and years.

The willingness and ability and undoubted creativity of many bespoke content


developers to adopt and adapt both rapid development tools and techniques,as well as the web2.0 and social networking applications gives continuingconfidence in this segment of the industry.

9.4 Gaming and learning

We anticipate continued growth in the serious gaming or immersive learninggenre. Coventry based Pixelearning are having increasing success in NorthAmerica, with a growing roster of blue chip clients. Sheffield based Desqreport continued interest in the use of games in e-learning, and the arrival ofthe Caspian rapid 3D authoring tool for Immersive learning all add to themarket dynamic.

It is however the demand for this learning style that will in the end drivedemand through to the industry.

We, however remain less clear as to how, or indeed if the video gamingindustry and the e-learning industry will collaborate or converge. In the fullinterviews synopsis we present the views of a leading exponent of the use ofvideo games for learning – from the games developer’s perspective.

9.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity

Tools – rapid and self authoring will drive demand as well as drive down costsand seed both issues and opportunities for the e-learning industry.

We, like many others in the industry have been impressed by the speed ofgrowth and expansion of Kineo, a company who built its business modelaround rapid e-learning development tools.

The emergence of rapid tools that allow much greater self authoring potentialto trainers or subject matter experts we believe will have considerable impacton the market place.

We anticipate an emergence of new business models – the North Americanmarket has seen this, with companies such as Red Vector and Udutudeveloping and utilising rapid tools (and offshore rapid development). Alreadywe have seen companies such as REAL Projects adopt this “tools baseddevelopment” model to some success.

It would appear logical that more and more learning can be developed by in-house teams and following that logic we would anticipate seeing the uptake oftools by in house learning development teams.

However, as yet we see the e-learning developers themselves utilising the


rapid tools with considerable effect to deliver against new and evolvingdemands for rapidly deployed e-learning.

Some put their faith in rapid e-learning – which promises drastically to lower thecost and time it takes to produce bespoke e-learning, but which may involve areadjustment of expectations difficult for some to make.

Rapid production methodology leans heavily on the Pareto Principle, or 80/20rule – and to really make inroads into costs must require some degree ofreliance on generic materials as a starting point.

However, the pragmatic view this requires runs counter to the prevailingculture in training departments (especially within the public sector) with manyorganisations persisting in seeing their own skills issues as unique andunprecedented.

9.6 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 – Social networking and Informal learning

There was undoubtedly great enthusiasm among some of the companiesinterviewed for the use of web2.0 and social networking, coupled with a veryclear health warning as to the appropriateness of its usage.

The key message from our interviewees was one of “appropriateness”, - thelearning requirement must be paramount, prior to the choice of technicalsolution.

Web 2.0 and Social networking will without doubt find a role in the learningand development mix, and will quite possibly go a considerable way insupporting and delivering the “informal learning” agenda.

However, its usage and its effective integration into the overall learning anddevelopment mix will be dependant upon the creativity, innovation andlearning design skills of the solution vendor.

We are non the less greatly taken with the concept coined by Jay Cross(2007) in his work “Informal Learning” of “Learnscapes”.

“The emergent way of learning is more likely to involve community,storytelling, simulation, dynamic learning portals, social network analysis,expertise location, presence awareness, workflow integration, searchtechnology, help desks, spontaneity, personnel knowledge management,mobile learning, and co-creation”. Cross (2007) p41

9.7 Mobile, Handheld, Portable or…..?

Will it be mobile learning, handheld learning or will it become portablelearning? Our research highlighted that mobile learning was finally becomingof age, after several false starts. Until now M Learning has been one of great


promise, but with few really good tangible examples for the corporate market.

The arrival of Adobe Flash Lite is having an impact for developers allowingricher content to be developed. 3G mobile networks now allow improvedlevels of connectivity.

The choice of platforms – from i-phones to netbooks, via Nintendo DS are allnow providing better and better portable learning devices.

The Apple impact cannot be underestimated – both the devices and the arrivalof i-tunes U will embed learning into portable devices, and be seen as cool.

The netbook is another major factor that will support the growth of portabledevice learning opportunities.

Epic have successfully used the Nintendo DS to deliver specific learningrequirements.

9.8 e-assessment

Despite the anticipated arrival of e-assessment for a number of years, andsurprisingly little comment from the e-learning industry itself, we believe thate-assessment will grow strongly in importance.

The demand drivers we believe are firmly in place, and the applications beingoffered now deliver on the ROI model. Our view is that higher education willprove receptive to the time savings and quality consistency e-assessmenttools can now offer.

We provide an insightful piece based round an interview with Assessment21’sGerard Lennox who provides us with a clear understanding as to why thissegment of the market is set for strong growth.

10.0 Drivers of growth

10.1 Compliance 2.0

It became quickly apparent in our interviews that interest levels for e-learningremained strong in areas that conventionally given present economiccircumstances we would have anticipated a marked fall in demand. By this wemean the banking and finance industry and the automotive sales industry.Sheffield based FISC, Kineo and LINE Communications have all reportedcontinuing high levels of interest from the financial services sector.

However, the financial services industry in recognising a failure in regulation is


we believe embarking upon a range of new Compliance driven learning andtraining.

Many financial institutions are already LMS operators but others are not.Secondly the content in use by many organisations is quite dated, andsuffering from the law of diminishing returns.

We foresee a significant level of demand for new and more interactive contentto deliver the softer end of compliance training as well as defining leadershipand decision issues in a learning format.

As we live in an ever increasing litigious world, compliance in health care,health and safety, government directives such as the WEEE directive forexample will drive the need for both interactive content and the auditableevidence of the training being delivered.

While Compliance has often been seen as one of the early drivers for theadoption of e-learning, its importance is still too great to be written off as oneof yesterday’s driver of demand. Indeed it is our view that this market will besignificantly stimulated by recent events.

10.2 Lifestyle learning

The evidence of our research and interviews strongly indicates a growingrealisation and receptiveness toward e-learning across a widening swathe oforganisations, institutions, associations, hobby groups and loose federationsof common interest that may spring up rapidly and disappear equally rapidly.

Learning will continue to grow and grow beyond the formal organisational andeducational frameworks. Peer to Peer learning and sharing across all thesevarying modes of communications and collaboration will flourish.

User or learner generated content will become more and more important. Thistrend is difficult to predict and even harder to prevent, given the speed oftechnical development, and the transient and promiscuous user pattern.

10.3 The training industry gets e-learning.

In addition we firmly believe that the UK training industry will embracee-learning to a much greater extent. Indeed we would argue that the relativelyslow adoption of e-learning and learning technologies in the UK (incomparison to the USA) has been in part due to the reluctance of the trainingindustry to adopt and endorse e-learning.

We believe the training industry (in certain cases) has seen e-learning as athreat, and some, but not all used every opportunity to discredit e-learning.


The industry itself has been aware of this, but now firmly believes that it hasovercome the arguments first deployed against it by the more traditionaltraining industry.

We have noticed a much greater level of interest from training organisations inhow they can use e-learning, given the challenges of the present economicclimate.

Training budgets will increasingly come under pressure and trainingorganisations (in house or third party) will increasingly need to offer “more forless”.

The culture of learning will change in organisations and the need for ‘Just inTime’ learning will increase, leading to the disaggregation of many linearcourses into small knowledge nuggets of learning.

The rise and rise of social networking – from Facebook to Linked-in or Naymz,via Twitter will create the opportunity for learners to request solutions toproblems from peer groups across the organisation (or indeed the world). Addto this Blogs and micro-blogs and Wikis and other open source environmentssuch as Ning and the traditional training industry will be challenged.

The rise of the Play Station generation has likewise put new demands uponboth schools and employers as to the quality and means of delivery oflearning and training.

10.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learnerimpact

Traditionally e-learning benefits have been promoted with ROI and the abilityto scale consistently to support global delivery as key benefits. In addition,LMS vendors typically stress the ability to schedule and track learning anddevelopment.

We are now seeing speed of development and deployment as a new and keydifferentiator coming to the fore, as a way of measuring return on investment.

10.4.1 The e is for environmental

The environmental agenda for e-learning is at present still latent. However, anincreasing number of e-learning companies are adding environmental benefitsto the marketing mix of their offer.


10.6 e–Learning 2.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise

Interviews uncovered trends towards medium sized businesses expressinggrowing interest in e-learning and learning technologies.

Our slide presented on page 20 “from automation to innovation” illustrateswhat we believe to be this trend.

It is our view that the availability of rapid e-learning tools, the emergence ofweb 2.0 will support the uptake of e-learning and learning technologies inmedium sized organisations.

New pricing models – software as a service in particular will enable access tolarger applications by medium sized companies.

10.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market

We noted several instances of e-learning commissions being led by marketingdepartments in organisations. This is a trend we expect to continue and growin importance.

Marketing departments appear to be impressed by how e-learning companieshave grasped the use of web 2.0 technologies and social networking asmeans of engagement. It is also true to note that many of the leadinge-learning players keep a foot in the marketing and communications camp aswell.

This has proven to be more than a happy co-incidence but undoubtedly thishas added to our confidence in the growth of the market, as marketingdepartments seek to use e-learning to support products and services in themarket.

10.8. Services

10.8.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry?

e-Learning consultancy is something of a cottage industry in the UK,most companies engaged exclusively in the field being micro-businesses.

As industry watchers we have Learning Light, the e-Learning Centre,Seb Schmoller, Jane Hart, and a handful of other quasi-equivalents toJay Cross, Bersin & Associates, or Brandon Hall. A standard growthstrategy for most learning technology companies, content companiesand training specialists is to offer consultancy in one form or anotherand some are quite sophisticated operations. BUT many of the big


players, including outsourcers, rely on the services of Associates fromthe micro-businesses.

We have noted the growing success of LINE, the Workshop and Epicin offering consultancy services. This is a trend we expect to continue,and the Sheffield cluster of e-learning companies is particularly wellserved by a rich eco-system of specialist consultants such as KeithShaw, Phil Green and others. The growth of Sero Consulting has beenparticularly impressive, and has been effective in using theconsultancy eco-system made up of companies such as Psydev,Dunelm and e-loki.

While there is real disappointment with the continued insistence bypublic sector procurement to play safe by engaging major players whocan then carry all project risks, the up-side is that so many majorplayers act as an employment agency for the SME and micro businesssectors.


Appendices

Appendix A - The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning

The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) - summary

Our 2008 Learning and Development Survey included a special section one-learning. This recorded steady progress in the acceptance of e-learning, butthat much remains to be done.

Key findings included:o More than half of the respondents (57%) reported that they are using

e-learning. This is the first time that the proportion has topped 50%.o Of those who are not using e-learning more than one quarter (27%)

plan to do so over the next year. a key part of training delivery.o In organisations using e-learning, it is likely to be offered to about 60%

of the employees, but taken up by only 30%.

Two statements seem to command near universal support:o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning'

(95% support)o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92%

support).

Respondents to the survey were asked 'which of the following training anddevelopment practices do you believe are most effective?' and were invited tochoose three practices from an extended list.

E-learning came next to bottom with 7% of respondents including it as one ofthe three – in-house development programmes and coaching attracted 55%and 53% respectively.

When asked 'How effective do you think e-learning is as a learning anddevelopment intervention?' only 8% stated 'very effective' with the majority(64%) saying that it was 'fairly effective'.

In those organisations that are using e-learning, it now accounts for about12% of 'total training time'.The figure recorded for the United States in 2006 by the American Society ofTraining and Development (ASTD) was 30% .

Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. As well as asking what percentageof training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) we asked whatthis figure would be in three years time. This produced the answer 27%. Thisphenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has been observedin previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys.


Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report

Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor

At the beginning of the decade, there was huge interest in e-learning. Doesthe interest continue, and how far has e-learning lived up to expectations sofar? Donald H. Taylor, Chair of Learning Technologies, investigates thesequestions, and asks whether shifts in the learning and developmentprofession’s attitude to e-learning suggests that the profession itself ischanging

At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess ofcontradictions on e-learning.

Just 7% of those polled regard it as among the most effective learning anddevelopment practices, yet 57% of organisations use it and 27% of theremainder plan to use it within 12 months.

While only 8% of those who use e-learning as a learning and developmentintervention would rate it as ‘very effective’, 64% believe it is ‘fairly effective’.

Yet these figures, which might smack of woolly thinking, actually tell a clearstory of changing attitudes to learning technologies. They are also part of afundamental change occurring within the learning and development functionitself.

The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them.They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters; theyreflect actual learning and development practice today.

And the message is simple: for those that use it, e-learning is now simplyregarded as part of the learning mix, and practitioners are increasinglyconfident with it.

In this survey in 2002, 54% agreed that ‘e-learning involves the possibility ofwasting a lot of money’, a figure that six years later has dropped to 38%, withjust 14% agreeing strongly. The intelligent customer has arrived.

If people know what they’re doing with e-learning, this explains why only 7%considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. For them, this phrasing makes nosense. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learningpractice. E-learning is a medium of delivery. Any effectiveness depends noton the medium itself, but how it is used. Those familiar with e-learning willalmost certainly be using it as one part of a delivery strategy that alsoincludes, for example, classroom delivery and book-based self-study.

Six years ago, the question could have made sense, because e-learning thenimplied something quite narrow. In 2002, e-learning essentially meant the


delivery of courses. In providing materials and a structure for self-study, it wassimilar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computer-assisted learning (CAL).

E-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via thelearning management system (LMS). In 2002, e-learning for most peoplemeant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrallyprepared or commissioned, with attendance and assessment data collectedby the learning and development.

E-learning has come a long way since then.

In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning, those polled for thisCIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range ofelectronically delivered learning materials available in 2008, from LMS-delivered courses to electronic performance support systems (EPSS), to theuse of social networks and Google to support informal learning.

This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – inspite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the mosteffective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more thanthey did two years ago. Of a list of 13 practices, this was the third greatestincrease.But if it is being used widely, the survey suggests that it is not being used veryeffectively.

Although 52% of those using e-learning claim it is ‘offered to’ 75–100% ofemployees, 57% say that only 0–25% actually ‘take it up’. This explains why66% of respondents estimate that less than 10% of ‘total training time’ isdelivered by e-learning.

Again, though, the wording of these questions invites the respondent toconsider the narrow definition of e-learning. The very phrases ‘offered to’,‘taken up’ and ‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralisedworld of the LMS. If the survey had asked, ‘What proportion of youremployees use Google, or access an online help system, or email/IMcolleagues for assistance?’, the results would certainly have been different.

In other words, where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense ofwhat e-learning means, this survey shows comprehensively that in practice ithas gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is nowresolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau ofproductivity. The key statistic here: 65% of respondents strongly agree it ismore effective when used with other forms of learning. E-learning is nowsimply part of the mix.

People don’t necessarily find e-learning easy (80% rightly say it requires newskills for learning and development practitioners), but it is no longer regarded


as revolutionary. Six years ago it excited the profession: 34% agreed with thestatement that ‘e-learning will significantly alter our training offerings’.

When this year’s survey asked for ‘the major change affecting organisationallearning and development over the next five years’, the CIPD did not eveninclude e-learning among the options offered and nobody mentioned it underthe catch-all answer of ‘other’.

It has taken e-learning about ten years to reach this state of maturity.

In 2008, as in every year, we can expect other learning technologies to cometo the fore, which could still be grouped under the widening banner of ‘e-learning’. Most of them will already be familiar, and their extension into thelearning field will be part of the natural extension of what e-learning means. Ithas already moved away from a centralised to a more diffuse idea of learning,and these new technologies will continue that movement.

Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning, but cando much more besides. They will be part of a trend taking technology-supported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a socialexperience, and from centralised ‘push’, to individually driven ‘pull’.It is difficult to imagine, given the results of this survey in comparison with thatof 2003, that any of these tools will have the dramatic impact on perception (ifnot on reality) that e-learning did in the early part of the decade.

The learning and development professional is just too savvy now. And thisacceptance of e-learning as one of many tools reflects an important change inthe learning and development function’s priorities. As noted above, whenasked to identify ‘the major change affecting organisational learning anddevelopment over the next five years’, respondents did not answer ‘e-learning’. The most popular answer, significantly ahead of the others, was:‘closer integration of learning and development activity and business strategy’.

In his essay for last year’s Reflections report, Charles Jennings of Reutersbemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning anddevelopment strategy. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chiefexecutive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be asinconceivable for a learning and development department not to have oneeither.

Implications for practitioners1. Don’t do e-learning to tick a box. If you are one of the 57% of

organisations with a 0–25% take-up of e-learning, ask yourself whatyou can do to improve this number. If you cannot, consider whether themoney could be better spent elsewhere.

2. Investigate your organisation’s current informal use of e-learning. Doemployees poll peers in other organisations via social networkingtools? How much do they use Google? Where can the learning and


development department help in providing swifter access to well-qualified experts, and online access to rich, sure sources ofinformation?

3. You are not alone. Network with your peers in other organisations toshare good practice in the implementation of learning technologies.

4. Establish how learning technologies can provide the data demanded byyour organisational learning and development strategy. If you don’thave a strategy, write one.

Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 - eLearn Magazine

Pressure to reduce costs. Technology … favoured over registrations in hotels& hours in classrooms away from customers and clients. In the good old days,an instructional designer would develop, and an instructor would deliver alltogether, same time and place. When the ideas, examples, or exercisesveered off mark, or were stale, the instructor fixed it. Thus the need foranalysis (now) grows even greater. How else to anticipate what is needed,what must be committed to memory, what can be sought at the moment ofneed? How else to determine readiness & eagerness? Allison Rossett, SanDiego State University, USA

Alternative interfaces … big this year: more Wii toys hooked up to computers,orientation-sensitive interfaces, gesture-based presentation software, evenbrain-wave and body feedback games… a lot of discussion of identity, data,and computational portability; cloud computing; and virtual machines….calendaring and event-related services will become widely popular:…increase in synchronous online classes, conferences, concerts, and otherKantian (time and place based) applications. Kantian computing alsoembedded into devices as well: cameras, phones, PDAs, laptops, cars, beltbuckles, keychains et al. Recommender systems will improve enough tobecome actually a little bit relevant, appliances will be more connected anddata intelligence (summarisation, visualisation, and decision support) will behuge. Stephen Downes, Researcher, National Research Council, Canada

Researchers will continue to make progress in discovering evidence-basedprinciples for the design of e-learning, including new applications of thescience of learning to educational games, simulations, and pedagogicalagents. Richard E. Mayer, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

…cell phone will emerge as the learning infrastructure for the developingworld. Initially, those educational applications linked most closely to localeconomic development will predominate… parents will have high interest inways these devices can foster their children's literacy. Countries will begin tosee the value of subsidising this type of e-learning, as opposed to moretraditional schooling. Chris Dede, Harvard University, USA

Training professionals are accustomed to being at the leading edge ofdownturns in the economy but this downturn is a genuine game changer.


Three trends are worth watching: (1) radical react mode; (2) fragmentedapplication of ADDIE and ID; and (3) extreme gigs for an army-of-one.Organisations in crisis don't plan, so get used to all assignments beingreactionary and due yesterday. Processes like ADDIE & classic ID will beused selectively or fragmented due to time and cost pressures. Downsizedtraining organisations & one-person consultant firms will find they need to do itall and rely on tools, technology, and temporary alliances with other armies-of-one to survive. Margaret Driscoll, Consultant, IBM, USA

… the emergence of new corporate-focused Virtual Learning Worlds (VLWs)or Massively Multi-Learner Online Learning Environments (MMOLEs) (will)nudge out interest in consumer-oriented versions of 3-D worlds that haven'tmade the adaptation to corporate needs. MMOLEs will contain elements thatmake them more corporate-friendly like SCORM compliance and avatarbehavior tracking….. one or two major 2-D virtual classroom vendors torelease 3-D environments…. increase in budgets for creating e-learning at theexpense of face-to-face learning and an increase in the use of social media incorporations. The increased adoption will be modeled after the Wikipedia-typeapplications of Pfizer (Pfizerpedia) & the U.S. intelligence community(Intellipedia). Karl Kapp, Assistant Director, Institute for InteractiveTechnologies Professor of Instructional Technology, BloomsburgUniversity, USA

Schools will have to offer to train students to do actual jobs and they will dothis online. The first two, which I know of, to step up to the plate are ISIL inLima, Peru and La Salle, in Barcelona, Spain. Real education, according tothe second president of the United States, John Adams, "...is about learning tolive and learning to make a living" an idea that got lost between the late 1700sand today. Roger Schank, John Evans Professor Emeritus of ComputerScience, Psychology, and Education, Northwestern University; CEOSocratic Arts

Organisations will no longer be able to afford the production of sophisticatedcourseware… more reliant on employee-generated content and increasinglyappreciate the potential of Web 2.0 approaches for informal, social, &collaborative learning & knowledge sharing... also be a growing trend towardadopting a top-down approach to using social media in organisations bybuilding a social media/learning strategy and implementing a platform thatintegrates a number of social media tools for enterprise use. Jane Hart,Social Media & Learning Advisor, Centre for Learning & PerformanceTechnologies, UK

… growing population of the world with quality, accessible, and abundanteducational opportunities—especially the rise of e-learning in both thegovernment and the private sector— eager to spend billions …in 2009 for thedelivery and marketing of e-learning programs that have been recognised asessential alternative delivery methods for education & training around theworld in this economic crisis. … we find ourselves in a world … where virtualreality puts people inside a computer-generated world and ubiquitous


computing forces the computer to live out here in the world with people. UgurDemiray, Editor-In-Chief, Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education-TOJDE, Anadolu University, Turkey

Free online courses, programmes and universities will increasingly bediscussed, debated, and ultimately enrolled in…. trend toward teachinglanguage online will continue to mushroom and lead to greater acceptance notjust of teaching languages in free and collaborative ways, but of entirecourses, programmes and degrees….. high schools, universities andcorporate training centres will need to adjust their policies, procedures, andphilosophies related to teaching and learning. Curt Bonk, Professor, IndianaUniversity, USA

The risk (to suppliers) of relying on free tools and services in learning willbecome apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail and as bigsuppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them. The OpenEducational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen, will face up to the"cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER.Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasingand better use of the data they have about learner behaviour, for example,which books they borrow, which online resources they access, how long theyspend doing what. Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK'sAssociation for Learning Technology (ALT), UK

… the global transition from the industrial age to the network economy will killoff much of the training and education programmes as we have known it. In itsplace will arise a more natural approach to learning through collaboration andsharing… great times ahead: fulfilling, bounteous learning unprecedented…the journey to this promised land will be brutal and unforgiving for people andorganisations who resist change and lobby for "back to the basics." JayCross, Internet Time Group LLC, USA

….. online content is becoming easier to maintain. Social interaction andsocial presence tools such as discussion forums, social networking andresource sharing, IM, & Twitter are increasingly being used to provide formaland informal support that has been missing too long from self-pacedinstruction….extremely optimistic about the convergence of "traditional"instruction and support with technology-based instruction and support.Patti Shank, Learning Peaks, USA

…. increased interest in open source software as well as tools and methodsthat enable online collaboration. E-learning will finally break free of thecourses-online model as more people realise the business benefits ofnetworked informal learning. Everyone will be looking at lower cost options fortheir training and development. Harold Jarche, Canada

…. opportunities for new technology-enabled educational innovations in whichthe repetitive routine lecturing, administrative and related repetitive tasks are


replaced with e-learning options, and the teachers—though fewer in number—will have more opportunities to serve as student mentors…. combination ofpersonal mentoring plus tailored e-learning environments for students couldusher in an age of personalised learning analogous to the movement towardpersonalised health care. Richard C. Larson, Founder & Director, MITLINC—Learning International Networks Consortium, USA

I hope for greater government support for e-learning around the world withmentoring for the less privileged communities. Yehudit Judy Dori, Technion,Israel Institute of Technology, Israel, and Visiting Professor,Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

The ordinary: Mobile will emerge, not as a major upheaval, but quietlyinfiltrating our learning experiences … more use of games as a powerfullearning opportunity and tools to make it easier to develop. Social networkingwill become the 'go to' option to drive performance improvements.The extraordinary: we'll start realising the power of consistent tagging & beingable to meta-process content to do smart things on our behalf. We'll startseeing cloud-hosting as a new vehicle for learning services.Clark Quinn, Quinnovation, USA

E-learning could enable campuses to fulfill their obligation to serve theincoming tidal wave (of unemployed learners) by expanding the capacity oftheir pipelines. It may mean focusing on delivering good product to thecustomer efficiently and trimming administrative salaries ,hiring more faculty,and deploying innovative technology. David Porush, CEO, MentorNet, USA

The parallel requirements of thrift and quality—two values traditionally seen atopposite ends of the continuum—will combine to drive a more scalable modelfor online "eWorking." Thrift and quality are both needed for online support tobe a scalable and acceptable replacement for face-to-face training. "Learning"as a discrete activity will take a back seat to the contextual tagging &appearance of appropriate knowledge chunks in support of specific tasks inreal time. These tagged "coherent chunks" will be semantically integrated withan organisation's tacit knowledge to form a dynamic user-driven packagecombining both vetted and open source (contributed, shared) content, onesmall package at a time as needed. Jonathon Levy, President & Co-founder, LeveragePoint Innovations, Inc.

Instructional designers ….will increasingly use newer electroniccommunication tools such as wikis and social networks as well as older toolssuch as listservs, discussion forums and blogs to cultivate learningcommunities… Whether tethered to distinct courses, as is now common inhigher education, or as ongoing communities of practice, the challenge is tocreate structures and activities that generate informal content—such asstories from the field—in support of learning, training, or performance goals.Peter J. Fadde, Assistant Professor of Instructional Technology & Co-coordinator of Center for Interactive Learning Research (CILR), SouthernIllinois University, USA


Education and training via e-learning (increasingly enhanced by theavailability of cloud computing) will grow. Cloud computing will be thedominating factor for e-learning practices, as it allows for cost-effective,efficient, and an environmentally friendly form of educational and trainingopportunities. …. individuals with specific expertise will be able to offer theirunique professional development services throughout the world at a muchmore affordable cost than traditional academic and training institutions.Badrul H. Khan, Founder & President, McWeadon.com, USA

…. investing in learning will make or break companies and organisations….evolving from an industrial age into a knowledge age, so content will becomekey in 2009. Social media use will increase because it saves money as itkeeps knowledge in a central place (quick retrievability, internationalaccess,…). Educational policies will enable educational institutions to come toterms with new learning technologies and not banish them bluntly. Mobilelearning will grow, especially in developing countries, as landlines are skippedin those regions. Inge de Waard, eLearning advisor, Ignatia Webs,Belgium

"The Year of Implementing 2.0." Previous years spent getting our industry tosee new Web technologies as having powerful learning applications. Myadvice to the e-learning community: pay close attention to the culture in whichyou are implementing. Ignoring the impact on culture will be the Achilles' heelof e-learning implementations. Brent Schlenker, New Media & EmergingTechnologies Analyst, The eLearning Guild, USA

Learning professionals start to move beyond using Web 2.0 only for "rogue,"informal learning projects and start making proactive plans for how to applyemerging technologies as part of organisation-wide learning strategy. In arecent Chapman Alliance survey, 39 percent of learning professionals saythey don't use Web 2.0 tools at all; 41 percent say they use them for "rogue"projects (under the radar screen); only 20 percent indicate they have a planfor using them on a regular basis for learning. Early adopters such as SunMicrosystems and the Peace Corp have made changes that move Web 2.0tools to the front-end of the learning path, while still using structured learning(LMS and courseware) as critical components of their learning platforms.Bryan Chapman, Chief Learning Strategist & Industry Analyst, ChapmanAlliance, USA

…. IT has proven a prominent candidate for cost reductions in times ofuncertainty. This creates business opportunities for the wider adoption of opensource, free, and user-generated technologies and content for e-learning.Organisations will give special attention to open source during this year. Thepublic sector in mature economies will increase its share of e-learningtechnologies, content and services in order to retain economic growth in thecorresponding sector. …. companies will intensify their competition over publicsector e-learning projects. … new synergies shall emerge between the

http://ignatiawebs.blogspot.com/


traditional public sector IT providers and e-Learning related companies. Web2.0 tools will continue to thrive and will be used to facilitate semantic taggingand annotation in already existing content, making it possible to incorporatesuch content in educational curricula, as well as in cultural and scientific digitalresources libraries. Spiros Borotis and Angeliki Poulymenakou, AthensUniversity of Economics & Business, Greece

Learning professionals' fears of obsolescence, expectations of connectedemployees and demands for quicker solutions will drive the rest of us toincreasingly abandon traditional instructional design in favor ofexperimentation—creating messy, loosely structured courses supplementedwith low-cost social software & old-school support tools like job aids.Employees, craving personalisation, will "go rogue" using tools and creatingcontent that best suit their needs—whether supported by the organisation ornot. In order for corporate learning management systems and talentmanagement systems to thrive, they too will "go rogue" by putting on theirinvisibility cloaks and becoming a suite of widget-like, integrated, mashed-upapplications existing inside and outside the firewall. Janet Clarey, BrandonHall Research, USA

I have been exploring frameworks during 2008 that give designers anddevelopers the ability to create applications that can reside both online and ondesktops; a capability that is quite frankly a little overwhelming when onethinks in terms of interoperability. The full impact of this implementation can berealised when we consider how the array of cloud applications can beleveraged irrespective of time, place, connectivity, device, etc. This is the levelof interconnectivity that will usher in a new paradigm in online learning. PhilIce, Director of Course Design, Research & Development, AmericanPublic University System, USA

There are three reasons why e-learning will continue to grow in 2009: (1) Theeconomy …more companies will be attempting to achieve cost savings usinge-learning technologies. (2) As students attempt to make better use of theirtime and money, they will continue to avail themselves of e-learningopportunities. (3) companies trying to establish a reputation for being eco-friendly, will use e-learning as part of their green initiatives. Matt Bovell, VellGroup, USA

….a time when more money is spent on training. The reasons are: (1) Goodcompanies (particularly in the financial sector) use training as part of an exitpackage. … as people are released, budgets are provided for the releasepackages and some of this is spent on training. (2) Individuals want todistinguish themselves from the market. This means they have to spendmoney on training to provide that differentiation. Many training companies seethis time as challenging, but not a time to expect a large decrease in trainingrevenue. Peter Parker, Owner, EPCoT Systems Ltd and ManagementConsulting Consultant, UK


Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions

From a number of Universities and the following:

Accenture EducationVETEscP ConsultingServitiumJames Cook UniversityInternational Computer Science InstituteInternet Time GroupInternational Islamic University Islamabad

. …..some key assumptions that are probably wrong.1. Open source is not, actually, free. Someone has to build it, someone has tomaintain it. Open source is simply transferring an up front and usually meagrelicence fee for a long term highly specialised labour cost, which in many casesends up creating situations where organisations are completely hamstrung bytheir IT department/gurus. 2. Consumers will probably not get increasinglysophisticated in building their own training…. people are losing essentialcreative skills, basic historic and heuristic abilities… to even reach them,e-learning needs to become more like movies or television shows, or for thatmatter facebook apps… pop culture is the actual language people areincreasingly speaking. E-learning will have to be "sold" to people and willcompete directly with the latest movies, hit TV series, and the swarm ofcompeting social networks, both general and highly specific (a la ning.com)So, the future of e-learning is, the courses that engage (shock etc) andentertain first, then educate later, will be the only ones to be efficacious.

2. E-learning is poised to grow because of lowered costs, increasedawareness of potential for incorporating new technologies in enhancingeducational content, and networking advances already available. The primaryreason is the availability of the infrastructure worldwide at reduced costs.

3. ….. we will see a shift towards web-based managed services provid(ing)recording, transmission, storage, and content management in one site…might even contain experimental media analytics approaches for automaticindexing, etc...

4. ….Adoption of Learning 2.0 approaches will start in earnest in the secondhalf of the year. LPO or Learning Process Outsourcing will gain momentum in2009. The use of the mobile as a learning platform shall see renewed interest- … The use of virtual worlds for learning will acquire more importance - ifthings are right, it should mark the beginning of the end for traditional virtualclassrooms. Games and simulations will see an increased adoption.

5. If… the online learning is authentic, engaging, media rich with high levels ofonline facilitator support, the learning experiences can easily eclipse that of


the classroom. Following this approach makes online learning just asexpensive as face-to-face although the scalability is better than the traditionalapproach. Web 2.0 and virtual environments will bring outstandingopportunities for formal and informal learning experiences, but will not saveorganisations substantially with costs.

6. … year for companies to reuse content that they have previously created bystarting to utilise EPSS solutions that can provide this information to users atthe moment of need. Providing immediate assistance to enable individuals toaccurately perform a task utilising a combination of resources from a singlepoint of initiation. We face a credit crunch and a knowledge crunch but if weutilise tools effectively we can ensure that the knowledge captured by SME'sis shared at the time it is needed

7. ….. a year where learning is moved more directly into the workflow and outof the classroom….. learning at “the moment of need”. Ubiquitous and less-expensive technology, social networking, peer-to-peer collaboration and usergenerated content are among the contributors to the increasing reality ofworkflow learning. Add ….. continuous pressures on budgets, the requirementto show business value for training spend (Return on Learning), the predictedfrequent job changing of the new generation of employees - you have atraining business that will push more learning to the actual workplace andstrive to embed learning into tasks. I see this as going beyond traditionalperformance support and into something much richer, much morecustomisable, and much more personal... 2009 won’t see the reality of this,but will move us to this type of ideal.

8. ….. we are nearing the do-or-die point for those classroom trainers whohave been resisting e-learning. Organisations (will) take a hard look at traveland other costs associated with traditional classroom training, and based oncost (rather than quality) will increasingly shift old business to new deliverymethods. While I welcome the move to increased use of e-learning (as I neverdid understand how the classroom got to be held in such exalted esteem), thisisn’t necessarily good. It breeds the “convert” (rather than transform)-a-classroom-course-to-online-mentality. … a shift toward buying or buildingwhatever is the cheapest instruction, and away from thoughtful instructionaldesign. …. we will see increasing understanding of evidence-based practicebut worry that it will be ignored in favour of easier, crank ‘em out approaches.…as much a hope as a prediction: the increasing use of social media maycreate the perfect storm for learners to start taking charge of training offeringsand let-me-get-it-myself content.


Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’expert predictions

Lisa Neal Gualtieri, Ph.D., Editor-in-Chief, eLearn Magazine, and Blog oneducation.Predicted: Better prioritisation will lead to more purposeful activities, such associal networking to make meaningful connections as opposed todemonstrating popularity. Less-democratic processes will lead to a clearerdistinction between expert-generated knowledge and the overwhelmingquantity of information available everyplace, making it easier to discerninformation quality. Ultimately, time is one of our most valuable resources, andI am hopeful that in 2008 it will be easier to learn, as well as to create andlocate high-quality learning content.Grade: BSocial networking came into its own in 2008, raising millions of dollars forsocial and political causes. And we saw attempts, at least, to popularise 'lessdemocratic' processes in the writings of Andrew Keen, the growth ofCitizendium and, of course, the Britannica Blog. But none of these made iteasier to discern information quality, and it didn't become appreciably easierto learn or locate high quality content.

Richard E. Mayer, University of California, Santa Barbara, US. .Predicted: When considering innovations in e-learning for 2008, it is temptingto focus on advances in technology—such as the use of games, virtual reality,and pedagogical agents. However, the most important innovations ine-learning will involve advances in our understanding of how to designe-learning environments that help people learn—such as how to designserious games, VR environments, and online agents that promote appropriatecognitive processing during learning. Basic research on learning andinstruction will provide new guidance for instructional design, including whichinstructional features promote which kinds of learning for which learners.Grade: DBasic research did occur in 2008, as it does every year, but it is far less clearthat we saw any particular advance in our understanding of how to designe-learning environments (unless you consider practical work such as CCK08or Jokadia or Wikiducator). Looking up "Basic research on learning andinstruction will provide new guidance for instructional design" on Google tellsus the current state of affairs: an old ITForum paper on information agelearning, Gagne's nine steps, and a 2005 paper on ISD. So generally aprediction demands specific results, and this just did not happen in 2008.

Stephen Downes, Researcher, National Research Council Canada.Predicted: The "middle path"—proprietary lock-in services, like Vista, iTunes,Facebook, and Second Life, will be abandoned for more open commercialalternatives rather than free and open source software and content. "Personalnetworks" will be created by individuals to manage and share their contactsand information sources; people will "peer" into each others' networks or

http://elearnmag.org/

http://blog.acm.org/elearn/

http://blog.acm.org/elearn/

http://andrewkeen.typepad.com/

http://en.citizendium.org/

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/

http://ltc.umanitoba.ca/connectivism/

http://jokaydia.com/

http://www.wikieducator.org/Main_Page

http://itech1.coe.uga.edu/itforum/paper17/paper17.html

http://www.blogger.com/%27http:/www.nwlink.com/~Donclark/hrd/learning/development.html

http://www.twinisles.com/dev/research/instrdes1.html


subscribe to filtered versions of each others' network feeds. Digital devices willbe synched using online services that will offer a publishing option for "liveupdating." Finally, open academic publishing will have its strongest year.Many government agencies will require that funded materials be made openlyaccessible. Useful libraries and indices of open academic content will appear,pushing commercial providers to offer some free content just to stay in thegame.Grade: CWhile people avoided Vista like the plague, nobody was abandoning iTunes,Facebook or Second Life (though, in fairness, the criticisms did begin tomount). Personal networks were created but, for the most part, were not usedto create filtered feeds. Devices were synched, but mostly were used to makephone calls, listen to music and download apps from an app store. Thenumber of Open Access mandates increased, commercial publishers leanedtoward free, but useful indices did not emerge (though ticTOCs, releasedDecember 20, is a start).

Saul Carliner, Associate Professor, Graduate Program in EducationalTechnology, Concordia University, Canada. .Predicted: I see these trends emerging: (1) continued integration of e-learninginto the broader, everyday context of learning; (2) increasing interest ininformal learning (and, as seen through ebbs of interest in performancesupport and workflow training, only limited incremental practicaldevelopments); and (3) a somewhat increased interest in digital video forlearning as a side benefit of both the early 2009 transition from analog TV toHDTV in the U.S. and the hi-def DVD format-war seemingly being won bySony's Blu-Ray technology.Grade: C+This prediction is essentially a projection of three existing trends, none ofwhich demonstrated any particular strength, coupled with a known futureevent (the conversion to HD) and the projection of a very likely one (the win byBlu-Ray). The best part of the prediction is the observation that the increasedinterest in performance support and workflow learning would result in onlylimited practical developments.

Jay Cross, CEO, Internet Time Group, USAPredicted: The suffix "2.0" will be appended to almost everything. Get readyfor LMS 2.0, Performance 2.0, and even Google Search 2.0. But be carefulwhen you get to Web 3.0, Third Life, and the other 3.0s. E-learning,knowledge management, corporate communications, and talent managementwill continue to converge. Some companies will mash them together and put itall under a CPO (Chief People Officer.) Finally, hierarchies will crumble asexecutives see the speed at which Web-savvy new hires penetrate silos, talkdirectly with customers, and get things done.Grade: DYes, we got LMS 2.0, Performance 2.o and Search 2.0 - all in 2007 or earlier.No credit for predicting past events. Yes, we saw a convergence of e-learning,knowledge management, corporate communications, and talent management- in, for example, competences and skills databases. Yes, we saw the Chief

http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windows-vista/default.aspx

http://www.apple.com/itunes/

http://www.facebook.com/

http://secondlife.com/

http://davidwarlick.com/wiki/pmwiki.php?n=Main.TheArtAmpTechniqueOfCultivatingYourPersonalLearningNetwork

http://www.google.com/tools/firefox/browsersync/

http://www.eprints.org/openaccess/policysignup/

http://www.tictocs.ac.uk/

http://www.dtv.gov/consumercorner.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/feb/19/digitalmedia.sony?gusrc=rss&feed=technology

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/feb/19/digitalmedia.sony?gusrc=rss&feed=technology

http://internettime.com/workflow/intro_wfl.htm

http://jaycross.com/

http://wiki.teachuohio.org/thread/947324/LMS+2.0?t=anon

http://www.taleo.com/news/press/taleo-announces-taleo-world-2007-performance-353.html

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/search_20_what_is_next.php

http://www.tencompetence.org/

http://www.skillscanada.com/

http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/23/86/59.html


People Officer. At Wal-Mart. In 2004. A fad that didn't become a trend. Butmost of all, hierarchies didn't crumble in 2008 - though just about everythingelse did.

Michael Feldstein, author, e-Literate weblog, USAPredicted: This year we will see universities begin to provide institutionalsupport for Facebook and other Web 2.0 tools, not as replacements for theLMS but as adjuncts to them. Also, 2008 will be a blockbuster year for theparticipation of young people in the United States elections, thanks in part tothe use of Web 2.0 sites to educate them on the issues and to mobilise them.Blackboard will show measureable market-share loss for the first time. AllLMS vendors will benefit, but Moodle and Sakai will benefit disproportionately.Grade: ADetailed and specific predictions, all of which came true. The Open University,for example, was one of many institutions to develop a Facebook application.All LMS vendors adapted web 2.0 tools. Young people were a dominantinfluence on the U.S. election, sweeping established candidates and pitting achoice between 'change' and 'maverick'. Blackboard did lose market share,with Moodle benefiting. Sakai, meanwhile, maintains only a sliver of themarket.

Carol Barnum, Director of the Usability Center and Professor ofInformation Design, Southern Polytechnic State University, USAPredicted: The WOW factor is upon us. A recent two-part story on NPRreported that one in five students is now taking courses via distance learning.With so many students learning online, more attention needs to be paid to thequestion of usability, particularly to understanding the user's experience. Afew years ago, there was little mention of usability in the same conversationas e-learning. Now it comes up, even if the meaning is in the eye of thebeholder. But, here's an interesting point, which could signal convergence:U.S. News and World Report 2008 Best Careers issue puts "usability/userexperience specialist" on its list of top careers with bright futures. With thegrowing interest in e-learning and the growing prospects for usabilityspecialists, there is indeed optimism that the two spheres will not only overlapbut merge.Grade: DWe saw a video on YouTube and a paper at E-Learn but no significant up tickin the importance of usability in online learning and certainly no sign of the twospheres merging. And the U.S. news and World Report Chart? Usabilityspecialist is still on it, but with only a 'B' for job prospects and on the bubble.

Mark Notess, Indiana University, Very There Consulting, and member ofeLearn Magazine's Editorial Advisory Board, USAPredicted: 2008 will be a banner year for distance learning enrolments.Economic and geo-political instabilities will lead more people to seek newemployment credentials. The steep growth of baby boomer "first retirements"will also fuel the trend, as people in their 60s look for second careers or lifeenrichment. The distance learning build-out of the past several years will

http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/23/86/59.html

http://personalbrandingblog.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/become-the-chief-people-officer-for-the-brand-called-you/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080423121430.htm

http://mfeldstein.com/

http://ouseful.open.ac.uk/blogarchive/010855.html

http://mfeldstein.com/web-20-lms-opportunities-and-obstacles-exploring-opensocial-openidand-opencourseware-in-nixty/

http://www.helium.com/knowledge/161765-us-elections-2008-assessing-the-impact-of-younger-voters-on-the-upcoming

http://www.helium.com/knowledge/161765-us-elections-2008-assessing-the-impact-of-younger-voters-on-the-upcoming

http://change.gov/

http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/80724

http://mfeldstein.com/bad-news-for-blackboard-good-news-for-moodle/

http://www.zacker.org/higher-ed-lms-market-penetration-moodle-vs-blackboard-vs-sakai

http://www.spsu.edu/htc/home/Faculty/bios/barnum.htm

http://www.spsu.edu/htc/home/Faculty/bios/barnum.htm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqEE9FXkdsE

http://www.editlib.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=Reader.ViewAbstract&paper_id=29641

http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/best-careers/2008/12/11/the-report-card.html

http://mypage.iu.edu/~mnotess/


come into its own, but some of the persistent learner-experience issues willcontribute to continuing high attrition. These issues will generate newresearch and experimentation, resulting (eventually) in major improvements toboth program management and technology platforms.Grade: B-Bonus marks for predicting economic instabilities (geo-political instabilities area given). As for distance enrollments, everything I could find (such as thisarticle and reports such as this and this) showed that while enrolments wereup, they were not dramatically up. The rest of the prediction was too vague toevaluate. What does it mean to say that a build-out ' will come into its own"?And while there may have been "persistent learner-experience issues" but wedon't know what they were, and there was no indication that attrition was moreor less an issue this year over previous years.

Karl Kapp, Assistant Director, Institute for Interactive Technologies andProfessor of Instructional Technology, Bloomsburg University, USAPredicted: Content within corporations and universities is going to becomemore and more disaggregated and learner created. Truly valuable content willbe found as short videos on YouTube, entries on blogs, or a favourite page ona wiki, none will be housed in a Learning Management System. In fact, Ipredict a corporate version of YouTube will emerge just as the academicversion, TeacherTube previously emerged. Formalised "instructional design"will begin to look more like "instructional assembly," in that what is traditionallythought of as a course will really be the efforts of an instructional designer toassemble disaggregated pieces of related content into a coherent flow fornovice learners or learners who are not comfortable with assembling thecontent themselves for whatever reason.Grade: B-Content did become more disaggregated and learner created, continuing atrend that has been evident for several years. Penalty for non-falsifiability: ifvaluable content were housed on a learning management system, this wouldnot be evident to the wider internet. No corporate version of YouTubeemerged. 'Instructional assembly' did not emerge as a wide practice, maybe ina few years.

Angeliki Poulymenakou, Assistant Professor in Information Systems;and Spiros Borotis, Researcher, both at Athens University of Economicsand Business, GreecePredicted: The proliferation of e-learning 2.0 will create new challenges for thequality of e-learning content, i.e. the need to create meaningful supportstructures to assist learners navigating through and evaluating the plethora ofnew user-created forms of learning resources. Moreover, emerging onlinesocial communities, e.g. Facebook and MySpace, will provide new andalternative ways of rapid e-learning through various applications and groups.Regarding the use of e-learning in Europe, an emerging field concerns thesupport for contemporary employment arrangements like flexicurity, as well asfor ensuring the provision of equal opportunities.Grade: CQuality continued to be a challenge for e-learning content in new media, but

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2008/11/13/sloan

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2008/11/13/sloan

http://www.vccs.edu/Research/annualdl08.htm

http://www.ucmo.edu/rsearch/front/distance.pdf

http://www.karlkapp.com/

http://istlab.dmst.aueb.gr/content/members/m_akp.html


no new challenges emerged. While support systems for learners would beuseful, the need for them did not grow appreciably in 2008, and no newsystems were created (it's interesting that in 2008 user-created resourceswere largely ignored by most commentators). New facebook applications andgroups supporting learning were created, but not at any increased pace frompreceding years. Following from a 2006 report, Europe did establish acommission on Flexicurity, but otherwise discussion of the concept seems tohave slowed in 2008.

Jane Hart, Head, Centre for Learning & Performance Technologies, UKPredicted: Open source and other free tools will continue to dominate thee-learning market, but these will be used to create simple informational typesof e-learning rather than complex instructional solutions. Here are some toolswhich I think will do well, or even better, in 2008: Google Docs (now that it hasembeddable presentation functionality), Slideshare (with narratedpresentations) will go from strength to strength, as will VoiceThread. YouTubeand other video sites, including those that specialise in instructional videoslike TeacherTube, as well as aggregators like SuTree, will dominate. Toolslike Gcast and Gabcast will make podcasting even easier.Grade: B-While open source and free tools were important, it is hard to say that they"dominated" the e-learning market - not while commercial systems such asBlackboard and Desire2Learn are still viable, not while content creation toolslike Camtasia and conferencing tools like Elluminate still dominate theirsectors. Google Docs didn't enjoy a good year, though it remained popular.Slideshare remained strong, but has slipped a bit. VoiceThread failed,languishing at 23 on Hart's list. TeacherTube, as noted, has been dropping.SuTree, Gcast and Gabcast/ Nowhere to be found.

Prof. James Hendler, Tetherless World Constellation Chair, ComputerScience Dept., Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USAPredicted: The Semantic Web is beginning to spread. It's already being usedunderneath a few popular Web sites, and there are a large number of start-ups springing up in the area. My prediction for the coming year is that userswill start noticing more Web sites that seem to offer more views of more dataand that they will be able to make more of their preferences known toapplications. Within a couple of years, this will become expected ofeducational systems, especially library systems, and educational Web siteproviders will need to start learning more about this technology.Grade: DNot to put too fine a point on it, but predictions that the semantic web willspread have been around for years. And for years, that spread simply hasn'tbeen happening. Same in 2008, which was the year of Ajax and the mashup,and not the year of the Semantic Web at all.

Curt Bonk, Professor, Indiana University, USAPredicted: There is a distinct shift recently from the clamour over a particulartechnology or Web 2.0 tool to how they can be combined for multi-

http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/areas/industrialrelations/dictionary/definitions/flexicurity.htm

http://www.etuc.org/r/1119

http://www.etuc.org/r/1119

http://www.blackboard.com/

http://www.desire2learn.com/

http://www.camtasia.com/

http://www.elluminate.com/

http://lewisshepherd.wordpress.com/2008/11/15/ms-office-wired-openoffice-tired-google-docs-expired/

http://c4lpt.co.uk/recommended/top100.html

http://www.cs.rpi.edu/~hendler/

http://www.ajaxmatters.com/

http://www.programmableweb.com/mashups


pedagogical and multi-technological experiences. There are Facebook groupsfor Second Life educators; Facebook groups established to generate researchon YouTube; people blogging on their Second Life adventures and putting uprelated pictures in Flicker; classes creating wikibooks with students fromaround the world, which have these learners blog on their progress and createpod casts of their final products. Yet another multi-pedagogical/multi-technological example is when college students collect sounds from differentcities or locations and index them using Google maps. A new term for these"mash-ups" will emerge in 2008 in various training and education sectors tohelp focus on the wealth of learning-related aspects or possibilities that cannow be realised.Grade: CSome marks for predicting the clamour over combining things (no points forthe undefined 'multi-pedagogical and multi-technological experiences'). Thelong second and third sentences are not predictions, but rather, descriptionsof the state of affairs (at the end of 2007). No new term for 'mash-up' cameinto being in 2008.

Jonathon Levy, Senior Learning Strategist, Monitor Group, USAIt appears the moment we've been anticipating may be arriving. Much of ourwork in 2008 will address RFPs for new models of performance-basedlearning both from companies and universities! We are responding to requestsfor capture of tacit knowledge, and integration of resident expertise thatpeople carry in their heads into a semantic knowledge ecosystem. There alsoseems to be recognition that there is no longer time for learning activities to beseparate from the "doing." We see a growing market for innovative "smarttools" that transcend "e-learning" and imbed new knowledge acquisition intothe context of doing actual work.Grade: DIf there was a new market in performance-based learning, it wasn't reallyevident. Certainly, it had been talked about for some time, and companies likeAccenture had launched human performance groups. But beyond the usuallevel of hype for things like Second Life (which even dropped off a bit in 2008)there was no particular emphasis on simulation or immersion in learning. Thesame with workplace learning and EPS systems. And 'smart systems'. No newdevelopments over and above the general background noise that has existedfor years. And nothing new on jonathonlevy.com after 2006.

Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK's Association for LearningTechnology (ALT), EnglandPredicted: My predictions for 2008: Effective use of RSS by learners,teachers, and learning providers will become more normal. Meanwhile the off-line capabilities of browser-based applications like Google Reader will grow,making a big difference for users with only intermittent Internet access. Thehype surrounding social networking will abate, with a greater understandingdeveloping about when social networking supports learning and when it is adistraction. And many more people will break free from Windows or OSX-based systems, and begin to rely instead on cheaper, lighter, disk-freedevices, with their "stuff" stored somewhere on the Internet rather than locally.

http://www.jonathonlevy.com/

http://firgoa.usc.es/drupal/node/6138

http://whitepapers.zdnet.co.uk/0,1000000651,260086856p,00.htm

http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/19/03/46/PDF/antonova-2006-KMLearning.pdf

http://www.pcd-innovations.com/

http://www.jonathonlevy.com/

http://www.schmoller.net/


Grade: B+Pretty good predictions. More learners, teachers and providers used RSS; thejury is out on whether it was used more effectively, and the numbers were notstaggering. Off-line browsing capacities did improve, but the impact waslimited. The hype around social networking didn't abate appreciably, but itleveled off, with criticisms about the appropriateness of using Facebook inlearning becoming more common (also, the popularity of the term 'creepytreehouse'). Windows and OSX proved more resilient than predicted, actuallygaining ground by occupying the OLPC platform. But cheaper, lighter, disk-free devices were huge in 2008.

Richard Larson, Director, MIT Learning Interactive Networks Consortium(LINC) and Mitsui Professor, Engineering Systems, MIT, USAPredicted: The year 2008 will be the year in which open source educationalmaterials will be co-invented by educators from around the world and will beas easily uploaded onto a searchable website as are the videos on YouTube.Quality control can be maintained either by official moderators, or—preferably—by market forces guided by user comments prominentlydisplayed. The content can be incorporated into class-based or distance-based courses. Each educational entry can be small (an educational"snippet"), medium (30 minutes of a class), or large (one week's worth ofwork).Grade: FThe YouTube of open leaning materials? Didn't happen? Quality controlmechanisms? Nope - all that was tried with MERLOT years ago, and thewhole quality-review thing just isn't catching on. Incorporating open learningcontent into courses? Sure - nothing new there (and not any easier, either).The concept of 'snippets' was "invented" long before 2008 - they were calledlearning objects or information objects. For a prediction, this really is asurprising submission.

Margaret Driscoll, Managing Consultant, IBM, USAPredicted: The e-learning buzz for 2008 is virtual reality (VR) for training (the3-D variety). Industry pundits are selling decision makers on VR's immersive,distributed, virtual, and collaborative attributes. This stuff is so cool thatmainstream TV shows like "CSI: NY" have an option called "Second LiveVirtual Experience," Sears has a prototype store, and MTV is already inseason three of "Virtual Laguna Beach." Recall the e-learning tsunami of hypeand you will quickly see the parallels. Look for a rush to create a VR trainingprogram, a lack of adequate funding and time to execute, and no grounding ineducational practice or theory. VR is Valhalla for die-hard constructivists.Grade: A-Hard to say that this prediction, though narrow, wasn't spot on. As 2008progressed, it was clear Second Life had peaked in 2007. By the end of it,organisations like Reuters had bailed and Second Life was fading from themainstream. Google pulled the plug on Lively. "The companies that rushed toset up bases within the cult virtual world of Second Life appear to havewasted their time as many have shut down and others are "ghost towns", an

http://mashable.com/2008/10/20/rss-forrester-study/

http://mashable.com/2008/10/20/rss-forrester-study/

http://www.labnol.org/internet/blogging/read-google-reader-rss-feeds-offline/5194/

http://campuslife.suite101.com/article.cfm/facebook_myspace_professors

http://www.chrislott.org/tag/social-learning/

http://www.chrislott.org/tag/social-learning/

http://blog.wired.com/monkeybites/2008/02/wanted-or-not-w.html

http://esd.mit.edu/faculty_pages/larson/larson.htm

http://www.merlot.org/merlot/index.htm

http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/32/378

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/616/191

http://customerlistening.typepad.com/customer_listening/2008/02/second-life-buz.html

http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/11/26/second-life-lacks-buzz-reuters-bails

http://www.lively.com/goodbye.html


Australian researcher has found."

Mark Oehlert, Innovation Investigator and Gaming Specialist, DefenseAcquisition University, USAPredicted: I predict that I will: (1) continue to look for social networkingfunctionality to become integrated into e-learning platforms; (2) ask why/howstandards like SCORM stay important/relevant as de facto Web standards likeAJAX, REST, and SOAP seem to address the same issues in a morecomplete way (and if I am wrong here, please someone tell me); (3) continueto watch as gaming design and instructional design talk past each other andfail to find a satisfactory hybrid solution; (4) continue to argue that mobilelearning (as opposed to "immobile learning?") will not cross into themainstream as long as we continue to fail to adapt our design to the fact thatmost mobile devices are first audio devices and, distantly second, visualdevices. Continuing to define "mobile learning" mainly by it association withone class of technology (cell phones) will have a similar effect.Grade: DTelling us what you are going to talk about for the next year is a bit of a cheapdodge. Also, predicting that things will not happen is also a bit of a dodge. Aprediction that is a question is definitely a dodge. Yes, web 2.0 technologieswere integrated into e-learning platforms, but this was announced prior to2008.

Patti Shank, President, Learning Peaks LLC, USAPredicted: Learning content, activity, and assessment authoring tools continueto improve. There are great tools with a short learning curve (for example,Adobe Captivate and Articulate Presenter) and tools with a longer learningcurve that are really excellent (for example, Lectora, and Flashform). Savvyinstructional designers are starting to realise that they cannot be involved inthe development of all instructional content in their organisations. Designersare beginning to help others author content and that should leave the morecomplex projects, where quality of instruction and assurance of skills isneeded, in the hands of capable instructional designers. One oh-so-hopefulprediction: Instructional design programmes will begin teaching instructionaldesigners to write. Why this critical skill isn't considered a must-have has mescratching my head.Grade: B-There's no real indication that instructional design programmes beganteaching instructional designers to write. Saying that the tools will improve iskind of like throwing rocks at trees in a forest. And designers have beenhelping others author content for many years now (these days you find mostlyinstructional design tools intended to assist authors). It's not all a washthough. It helps when somebody explicitly identifies cases where yourprediction is being realised.

Clark Quinn, Quinnovation, USAPredicted:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/technology/few-lives-left-for-second-life/2008/08/20/1218911810203.html

http://blogoehlert.typepad.com/eclippings/

http://www.blackboard.com/company/press/release.aspx?id=823603

http://www.learningpeaks.com/

http://www.macupdate.com/info.php/id/24366/exe

http://learningvisions.blogspot.com/2008/02/instructional-designer-as-consultant.html

http://www.quinnovation.com/


The cynical: There will continue to be "eLearning Solutions Providers" with noone on the executive/management team who really understands learning; atotal LMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing, all-dancing solution will beannounced, but it still won't be the answer.The optimistic: mLearning will cross the chasm this year, and moreorganisations will take a wise perspective toward using technology to populatethe "performance ecosystem." Both: Exciting new Web 2.0 applications willkeep appearing, but we won't be better at avoiding hype and looking for reallearning affordances.Grade: B-I searched high and low for a 2008 announcement of "a totalLMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing, all-dancing solution" but didn't findone (I even left out the singing and the dancing). Did mLearning cross thechasm? That's a bit of a judgment call. It was certainly more popular, but notarguably mainstream, with most activity in the form of pilot projects and testruns. Exciting web 2.0 applications kept appearing, but arguably the economiccrash has made us a lot better at avoiding hype - at least for the next fewweeks.

Ben Watson, Director, Microsoft Learning, CanadaPredicted: Somehow in 2007 the power of the human touch passed thelearning industry by when FaceBook, MySpace, and YouTube roared to lifeand gained prominence while search engines continued to grow theirdominance by becoming the learning tool of choice for individuals. In 2008,expect the learning industry to continue to struggle to remain relevant asthese technologies, and others, continue to bypass corporate-structuredlearning while individuals continue to vote with their virtual feet while creatingrelevant content on their own. Ironically, competing demands for attention willdrive people to single-source as much of their learning as possible.Grade: B+The learning industry struggled to stay relevant. Many training departmentsfailed their organisations. And with the crash in the fall, learning was first onthe chopping block and schools, colleges and universities faced funding cuts.And we began to see a shift in emphasis from institutions creating learning tostudents creating their own learning. We haven't seen the move toward single-source learning, though iTunes is definitely offering itself as a candidate.

David Porush, Co-founder and Chairman, SpongeFish, USANew gadgets and communications tech tease us with visions that "it's allgonna change." Radio, television, the first PCs"—all inspired millennialprophecies of revolutions in learning. The simple fact is that most people stilllearn formally in classrooms very similar to the Sumerians' of 3200 B.C. Whathas changed most stunningly is the breadth and instantaneity of our informallearning. My prediction? Formal learning will still take place in classrooms orvirtual simulacra of classrooms. But this year social networks for sharing whatyou know informally and personally will be the big news.Grade: CThe key aspect of Sumerian classrooms, at least according to Porush (who

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=Tw9&q=a+total+LMS+CMS+Portal+eCommunity+solution++announced+2008&btnG=Search

http://www.nmc.org/2minute-survey/mobile-projects

http://www.linkedin.com/in/bengwatson

http://digitaldialogues.blogs.com/learning_technologies/2008/10/index.html

http://www.citehr.com/81468-many-training-departments-failing-their-organizations.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/07/AR2009010702167.html

http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/brian/archives/049209.php

http://www.apple.com/education/mobile-learning/

http://wordpress.com/tag/spongefish/

http://www.nmc.org/files/Teaching, Telepresence and Telepathy.doc


appears to be the primary source for such references) is that "The discipline ofthe schoolchildren being tutored in script 'canalises' their thought processes,reinforcing certain pathways." Formal learning can still be contrasted withinformal learning, a concept that gained ground steadily in 2008. Were socialnetworks for learning big news in 2008? Not particularly more than mostanything else. A more concrete prediction would have been helpful here.

Philip Lambert, Vice-President, Red Hot Learning, CanadaPredicted: 2008 will be the year that serious games get serious attention fromcorporate training departments. More studies will show the positive learningeffects of games, and, as practitioners quote positive ROI from serious gamesthat far exceed the ROI provided by other forms of e-learning, manycorporations will jump on this exciting new bandwagon. By the end of theyear, it will be apparent that, just as in the early days of e-learning, peoplewho do not know what they are doing will create games that do not teacheffectively, do not engage learners, and are not used. This will lead some toquestion, once again, the validity of using games to teach.Grade: AGames received a lot of attention in 2008 and, in particular, as predicted,studies showed the positive effects of learning from games. Proving ROI wasmore of a challenge, generating some debate, but specific claims were made.In addition, other people built ineffective games. What's missing thus far toany great degree is the questioning. Just a matter of time, though.

Overall, the predictions were a pretty mixed bag, with lack of specificity,predictions of past events, and obviousness being the main culprits. 2008 wasan especially difficult year to predict, and those who simply predicted 'more ofthe same' (more social networks, more virtual reality, more YouTube, moremobile learning) tended to fare poorly. It's likely that in 2009 the people whobased their predictions around the current economic crisis will meet a similarfate. Predictions of an impact amount to predicting past events, but identifyingthe specific impact will be more difficult. And what will technology do in themean time? If you focused on the economic downturn, you probably missedthat.

http://www.astd.org/lc/2008/0708_paradise.html

http://www.redhotlearning.com/

http://medgadget.com/archives/2008/08/studies_show_benefits_of_video_game_playing.html

http://gigaom.com/2008/09/10/wheres-the-serious-roi-in-serious-games/

http://www.sealund.com/blog/?p=48

http://www.towardsmaturity.org/article/2008/12/10/games-military/

http://media.www.tcudailyskiff.com/media/storage/paper792/news/2008/01/17/Opinion/Credit.Cards.In.Childrens.Games.Do.Not.Teach.Careful.Spending-3155047.shtml

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