Learning & Working Today: What young people themselvesand the research are telling us

DUSSELDORP SKILLS FORUMJuly 2007DSF.ORG.AU

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Dusseldorp Skills Forum

Established 1988 by Lend Lease shareholders Independent public interest enterprise Operating foundation with policy, research &

practice arms Focus: youth, skills, participation, citizenship Seeks: individual, community & policy change Catalyst for significant legislative, policy &

practice change in education and training

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Our major partners Australian Industry Group Business Council of Australia Australian Council of Trade Unions Group Training Australia Philanthropies Worldskills Commonwealth & State governments Practitioners, educators, researchers, youth

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Projects & research featured

It’s Crunch Time, 2007 What Young People are Thinking, 2007 Fearless and Flexible, 2006 How Young People are Faring, 2006 Clearing the Myths Away, 2006 Kirby Comes of Age, 2006 Getting It Right, 2005 Same Kids, Same Goals Next Generation teacher preparation

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Some systemic challenges

Australia’s knowledge elite & equity challenge From mass schooling to universal provision Attractions of the labour market Poor resource allocation across sectors Core standards alongside customised learning Equity & excellence issues for VET & TAFE Points of change in very large systems Civic virtues of learning & instrumental outcomes

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Importance of youth transitions

Social & cultural induction to adulthood Economic impacts on participation & productivity:

returns from good transitions are very large An offset to looming demographic squeeze Key fact: successful transitions are taking longer Key variable: first 12 months post-school are central to

successful transitions

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We are not running out of young people

Numbers of 19 year-olds will continue to increase. Youth will be a vital factor in the economy. Source: How Young People are Faring 2006, ABS

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We are not running out of young people

Estimates of the 15-19 year-old population to 2051. Source: Clearing the Myths Away, Productivity Commission

1 . 2

1 . 3

1 . 4

1 . 5

1 . 6

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051

Million persons

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What young people are thinking

National representative sample of Australians aged 18-24 years about learning & work

Optimistic, confident & fearless about their future Positive about final year at school, work & study Engagement significantly affected by early school leaving,

attending a government school, parental background Significant disaffection among casual workers Some concerns about education costs Maximum margin of error is generally 3 percent

10

37

34

40

35

34

40

35

40

26

31

41

49

58

31

42

27 13

24

15

37

29

18

14

13

20

21

21

20

20

19

19

19

73

69

60

60

60

63

58

69

42

51

59

74

65

66

65

66

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

TOTAL

SEX

AGE

AREA

PARENTS'EDUCATION

HIGHESTSCHOOLING

SCHOOL INFINAL YEAR

%PT/NO WORK &/OR PT STUDY NO WORK OR STUDY FT STUDY OR FT WORK

LEVELS OF ENGAGEMENT BY SEGMENT

11

12

9

15

88

90

844

1

2

33

43

40

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100%NOT PARTICULARLY NOT AT ALL VERY SOMEWHAT

And still thinking about the future. At the moment, how confident do you feel that everything will work out OK for you in your working life and career in the years ahead?

CONFIDENT

FULLY ENGAGED

NOT FULLYENGAGED

TOTAL

CONFIDENCE IN WORKING LIFE AND CAREER IN THE YEARS AHEAD

12

5

3

8

30

26

37

17

36

40

55

95

97

92

69

74

62

82

64

59

4326

15

10

4

13

7

9

1

2

15

12

13

31

13

23

20

47

48

48

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

%

SOMEWHAT DISSATISFIED VERY DISSATISFIED VERY SATISFIED SOMEWHAT SATISFIED

LIFE OVERALL

FINANCIAL SITUATION

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION

SATISFACTION WITH VARIOUS ASPECTS OF LIFE

FULLY ENGAGED

NOT FULLYENGAGED

TOTAL

FULLY ENGAGED

NOT FULLYENGAGED

TOTAL

NOT INPAID JOB

NOT INPAID JOB

WORK FULL TIME JOB

WORK PT/ CASUAL

DISSATISFIED SATISFIED

13

FULLY ENGAGED

NOT FULLYENGAGED

< YEAR 12

YEAR 12

GOVERNMENT

NON-GOVERNMENT

29

24

37

58

21

37

13

71

76

63

42

79

63

874

14

6

31

12

10

11

25

12

19

7

15

17

16 41

47

32

21

47

33

58

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

TOTAL

ENGAGEMENT

HIGHESTSCHOOLING

SCHOOL IN FINAL YEAR

%FAIR POOR EXCELLENT VERY GOOD GOOD

Now a question about the school you attended in your last year of high school. In your opinion, what kind of job did the school do in giving you a good education?

Would you say it did an excellent job, very good, good, fair or poor job?”FAIR / POOR EXCELLENT / VERY GOOD /

GOOD

FEELINGS ABOUT SCHOOL

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SATISFACTION WITH VARIOUS ASPECTS OF JOB- FULL TIME VS PART TIME/ CASUAL -

15

22

9

14

12

17

18

24

25

34

14

21

17

30

26

27

16

27

84

78

91

86

87

80

81

75

69

57

84

77

83

68

74

73

84

6910

6

9

9

10

6

7

3

15

11

7

5

4

6

3

1

5

7

30

45

32

30

22

35

34

48

13

31

30

39

51

61

28

35

36

45

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

%

SOMEWHAT DISSATISFIED VERY DISSATISFIED VERY SATISFIED SOMEWHAT SATISFIED

DISSATISFIED SATISFIED

OVERALL DUTIES/ TASKS

SUPERVISOR

SENSE OF ACHIEVEMENT

OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROMOTION

OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRAINING/ LEARNING

HOW CHALLENGING JOB IS

PAY - TAKING INTO ACCOUNT YOUR SKILLS/ EXPERIENCE

OTHER TERMS/ CONDITIONS EG HOURS, LEAVE, SICK PAY

JOB OVERALL

15

21

3

4340

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

A LOT / A LITTLE BETTER THANTHOUGHT IT WOULD BE

ABOUT WHAT EXPECTED VERY / A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING

%

25 23

2

18

4

50

35

14

25

54

46

39

15

3843

17

2

13

3

19

0

20

40

60

80

100

BET EXP DIS BET EXP DIS BET EXP DIS BET EXP DIS

% FULLTIME

PARTTIME

Which one of the following best describes your feelings and impressions so far about being a student at (educational institution)? Overall, would you say it has been...?

TOTAL STUDYING

ATUNI

OTHERINSTITUTION

OVERALL FEELINGS/ IMPRESSIONS ABOUT BEING A STUDENT

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Teenagers not engaged full-time

13.8% (or 196,200) teenagers not in full-time learning or work.

5

10

15

20

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08

Year

% of 15-19 year-olds not in ft study or ft

work

MalesFemalesPersons

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Unemployment & part-time work

Unemployment has more than halved since the 1990s recession while part-time work has risen.

2

4

6

8

10

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08

Year

% of 15-19 year-olds

Pt WorkUnempNilf

18

School leavers not fully engaged

Nearly 30% of 2005 school-leavers were not in study or work full-time in May 2006.

15

20

25

30

35

40

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08

Year

% of school leavers not in ft study or ft

work

MalesFemalesPersons

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Completing Year 12 matters

20% of Y12 leavers; 45% of Y11 leavers; 50% of Y10 leavers not fully engaged: a big opportunity gap.

10

20

30

40

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

% not studying & not working full-time

Yr12Yr 11Yr 10

20

Young adults not fully engaged

The level of young adult engagement is improving but still 22% are not fully engaged.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08

Year

% of 20 to 24 yos not in ft study or ft work

MalesFemalesPersons

21

Growth in full-time jobs since 1995

1.270 million full-time jobs created for 25-64 year olds since 1995; static full-time job growth for teenagers & decline of 42,000 for young adults.

60

90

120

150

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Year

% growth of full-time employment

15-19yo20-24yo25-64yo

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It’s Crunch Time: attainment

School or Cert III completion rate of 81 percent Relatively static for more than a decade Indigenous completion at half this rate 25-34 yo: 20th in OECD for school completion 46% of school leavers not in post-school study 47% overall traineeship completion rate 60% traditional apprenticeship completion rate Early leavers profoundly disadvantaged in Australia

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It’s Crunch Time: engagement

Noticeable improvement in recent years 13.8% of teenagers not fully engaged 22% of young adults not fully engaged 526,000 or 18% of 15-24 yo not fully engaged 306,000 or 11% of 15-24 yo unemployed,

underemployed or marginally attached to work

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It’s Crunch Time: attainment & engagement

45-50,000 early school leavers each year not fully engaged 6 months after leaving school

45% of Year 11 leavers & 49% of Year 10 leavers not fully engaged

1:3 Year 11 leavers & 2:5 Year 10 leavers not fully engaged as young adults

107,000 young adults without Yr 12 or Cert III not in the labour force, unemployed, or working part-time and not studying

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Some significant policy myths Too much emphasis is placed on university

education A choice must be made between trade

training & university education Today’s training rate will meet future skill

needs Youth benefit most from higher training rates Traineeships will meet skills shortages Traineeships are inferior forms of training

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Final comments

Young Australians are confident & fearless about their future & their experience in work or learning

Early school leaving, attending a government school & parental background significantly affect engagement

Gaps around policy rhetoric & current resources Lack of integrated approach in federal policy development Very significant opportunity to address Australia’s 3Ps It’s up to us: investment & policy decisions of baby-boomers

will determine if youth confidence is justified Stakeholder engagement & national debate are crucial