leapfrogging energy system flexibility for integrating...
TRANSCRIPT
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Leapfrogging energy system
flexibility for integrating high
share of renewable electricity
Peter D. Lund 1Aalto University, School of Science Espoo-Otaniemi, Finland [email protected]
IEEE SEGE 2013, Oshawa 28-30 August 2013
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Global energy & climate nexus
Sustainable energy transition
Energy systems innovations
Cases on high RE share
Outline
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Dynamics of the global
energy system
Peter Lund 2013
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The Energy-Climate
challenge ahead
in simple terms
Peter Lund 2013
I. Fossil fuels >80% of energy, oil>98% of traffic
II. Coal (power) and oil (traffic) 80% of CO2
III.Goal: CO2 down by 60% 2050, >80% in industrialized countries
IV. 65% of energy used in cities(80% in2040)
V. Energy issues shifting from industrialized countries to emerging economies, e.g. in Asia
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Current trend: New record in
human carbon emissions 2012
Peter Lund 2013 Lhde : IEA, 2012
1990 2035
45
Gt
20
22 Gt
CO2
20% of population use 80% of all [energy] resources 1/2 of all people earn less than 2$ a day
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Peter Lund 2013
Energy technology
options by 2050 (IEA 2008)
Ref: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008
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Renewable electricity is
more than adequate to
supply 80% of U.S.
electricity in 2050;
Increased electric system
flexibility is needed
(supply- and demand-side
options);
Multiple combinations of
renewable technologies
possible.
U.S. Renewable Electricity
Futures Study (RE Futures)
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Source: NREL: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures, 2012
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Trends in new energy
- growing markets and falling prices
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Progress in solar PV and wind power
price (PV) price (wind) volume (PV) volume (wind)
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Take-off of Solar PV?
Peter Lund 2013
Ref Lund PD. Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures. Applied Energy (2010), doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.024; P.D. Lund:Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies. Energy 35 (2010) 647656
PV share of world electricity 2013 < 1%; By 2050: 5% (slowing progress) 25% (fast-track)
10% of world electricity 2050
20% of world electricity 2050
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Several studies and scenarios indicate high future market
shares of renewable energy and electricity
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Shifting to sustainable energy
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Distributed and renewable energy
generation technologies
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Distributed power topology
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http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/graphics/electricity-graphic/image&imgrefurl=http://nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/smartgridpt1&usg=__bwruLvnZSsedsUdVMyR7tQwbC8U=&h=211&w=600&sz=49&hl=fi&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=7gix3sE1foPhYM:&tbnh=67&tbnw=190&ei=0MU2TdXEJcSl8QPVpfiCDA&prev=/images?q=distributed+electricity+generation&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=727&vpy=451&dur=3485&hovh=133&hovw=379&tx=183&ty=86&oei=0MU2TdXEJcSl8QPVpfiCDA&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=22&ved=1t:429,r:20,s:0http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://midwestgreenenergy.com/images/PV-GridSystem2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://midwestgreenenergy.com/howdoespvwork.html&usg=__bF7PFSvqmoTA3b_TgNdfhLvwSwY=&h=275&w=441&sz=19&hl=fi&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=V86cm7QY3iCgbM:&tbnh=131&tbnw=210&ei=WcY2TeqQN8S48gPLgvyTDA&prev=/images?q=grid+connected+PV&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=345&vpy=86&dur=1362&hovh=177&hovw=284&tx=186&ty=101&oei=WcY2TeqQN8S48gPLgvyTDA&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=20&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://www.pvsystem.net/~k.otani/data/bipvphoto/98030827.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.pvsystem.net/~k.otani/data/bipvphoto-e.htm&usg=__buYzCbD9Cf6HUHQ820pgp9ysz7Q=&h=480&w=640&sz=42&hl=fi&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=60MFkn4_wslTJM:&tbnh=131&tbnw=174&prev=/images?q=Building+integrated+PV&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=400&ei=W8A2TYKhKcnA8QO3rc2WBA&oei=LMA2TcWLIoy28QPr95W9Aw&esq=10&page=1&ndsp=25&ved=1t:429,r:10,s:0&tx=132&ty=48http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://www.burnsmcd.com/portal/pls/portal/docs/1/196589.JPG&imgrefurl=http://www.burnsmcd.com/portal/page/portal/451B9DA9BEEC304BE040030A1B0D57A7&usg=__EQCvK55pHUHgAYF_cmuxuksJ120=&h=216&w=324&sz=34&hl=fi&start=25&zoom=1&tbnid=FEq3EXJ9xQIVJM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=171&prev=/images?q=Building+integrated+PV&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=0&ei=pending&oei=LMA2TcWLIoy28QPr95W9Aw&esq=2&page=2&ndsp=26&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:25&tx=133&ty=78
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RE (PV) resource variability
on different time scales
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Ho
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y an
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(W
/m2
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Yearly Daily
Hourly 0.1 sec
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Temporal market effects from
large-scale RE (Germany)
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(c) Peter Lund 2013
Spatial effects from RE
schemes
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Peter Lund 2013
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Large-scale RE schemes require
systemic bridging innovations
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Old 100% New 100%
New 0% Old 0%
Multi-energy networks Flexible demand
EV,ICT
Storage E2T,V2G,E2Gas
How does the energy system
work with much renewable energy?
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Smart infrastructures provide
spatiotemporal flexibility
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Smart built environment provide
spatiotemporal flexibility
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Energy systems perspective to
high-shares of RE power
Q1: matching supply and demand of electricity with RE sources
Q2: integrating distributed RE power into the energy system
Examples of solutions:
1. RE in urban context
2. Grid infrastructures
3. Smart Grids
4. Electricity markets
5. Co-generation (CHP)
6. RE coupled with end-use
7. Electricity-to-Gas
8. RE+Gas integration
9. Demand flexibility
10.Storage
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5 3
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http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://www.renewbl.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/masdar-city.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.renewbl.com/2010/12/06/first-masdar-city-building-completed-features-1-mw-solar-rooftop-installation.html&usg=___tbgfcooGcyAElU9bQcuH_acXpU=&h=462&w=600&sz=111&hl=fi&start=120&zoom=1&tbnid=QW3yOqD0TeJfQM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=165&ei=5ME2TZjWNsao8AO2ws2DDA&prev=/images?q=Masdar&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=0&oei=sME2TcLJHs6s8QOGzMWLDA&esq=6&page=6&ndsp=24&ved=1t:429,r:12,s:120&tx=108&ty=93
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Simple control of large-amounts of RE:
Ex. Curtailing PV power
0 %
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100 %
0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Red
ucti
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in
so
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yie
ld
Power cut-off limit (% of nominal PV power installed)
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Peter Lund 2013
Examples of
grid extension
plans in
Europe
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Integrated electricity market
a Nordic system innovation for large-scale use variable renewables
Nordic electricity market has a common power reserve which can be accessed through the power exchange
How much wind power is possible without major reserve power increase?
If wind 10% of all electricity extra cost for reserve power is 1 /MWh
If 20% 1-7 /MWh (source: H.Holttinen, VTT)
Vision: 20-25 % of all Nordic electricity wind power by 2030; Norwegian hydropower buffers
Peter Lund 2013
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REF IEA 2012
RE&Gas: better power plant flexibility
A
B C
Ref. Wrtsil, Smart
Power Generation, 2011
Ref. IEA, Golden Rules
for a Golden Age of Gas
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Final energy in urban environment
thermal energy forms dominate end-use side
Final energy use forms in buildings: heating, cooling, electricity
EU-27household energy:
Peter Lund 2013
67 %
15 %
14 % 4 %
Space heating
Appl&Light
Hot water
Cooking
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Electricity-to-thermal conversion of
surplus renewable electricity
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Picture: Helsinki Energy Annual Report 2010
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How much wind power could
be utilized in Helsinki?
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Generating spatiotemporal (load)
profiles (x,y,t)
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Annual load per type
1 5 9 13 17 21
Typical hourly load profiles per type
1 5 9 13 17 21
Total hourly load profile over a year
(x,y)-distributions e.g. building type
Scaled
profiles Fitted
profiles
Spatiotemporal
loadprofile (x,y,t)
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Peter Lund 2013
Electric (left) and District Heating
Networks and Loads (right) in Helsinki
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Matching power demand and supply
each hour of the year!
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0 %
10 %
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100 %
Tuu
livo
iman
tu
nti
-ja
viik
oar
vot
[su
ht.
teh
o]
winter summer autumn
winter summer autum
Helsinki power demand Wind power production
Win
d p
ow
er
variation
(re
l. u
nits)
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486 MW
How does wind power match demand?
Wind = power and heat demand 1349 MW wind power = 71% of electricity per year (2% of heat)
Ref: R. Niemi, J. Mikkola, P.D. Lund: Urban energy systems with smart multi-carrier energy networks and renewable energy generation. Renewable Energy, 2012. Ref: Lund, P. : Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012
Wind power supply
Heat demand
Electricity demand
1349 MW
Wind = power demand 486 MW wind power = 25% of yearly electricity in Helsinki
Worst day for wind power: Feb 6
Peter Lund 2013
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Mismatch between PV and electricity
demand case Shanghai
Different levels of PV
Ref: Lund, P. : Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration
and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012
Smart energy may 2-3 x feasible PV capacity in Shanghai Base case (PV peak equals to electric load): 31% daily energy share, 25% of yearly electricity share Advanced case (PV peak equals to total load: 50-70% of daily energy demand (40-55% of yearly electricity)
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Example of power distributions with
large PV schemes in Shanghai
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Niemi, R., Mikkola, J., Lund P., Urban energy systems with smart
multi-carrier energy networks and renewable energy generation,
Renewable Energy 48 (2012) 524-536.
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Pushing the share of RE power
2-3-fold beyond the traditional limit
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Electricity-to-Thermal strategy: RE system is oversized, surplus turned into and stored as thermal energy (heat or cold) ; or curteiled
Ref: Lund,P.: Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012
0 20 40 60 80 100
Shanghai, China (solar)
Dhahran, Saudi-Arabia (solar)
Helsinki, Finland (wind)
Share of renewable energy,%/a
4 RE provides 100% of daily cooling demand during peak RE conditions
3 RE provides 100% of daily heat demand during peak RE conditions
2 RE matches hourly demand of electricity and heat during peak RE conditions
1 RE matches hourly demand of electricity during peak RE conditions
1 2
3 4
Base case
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Electrified vehicles providing
electricity servives (E2V, V2G)
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Tesla Motors - Model S lithium-ion battery pack
Source IEA
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Key parameters for the simulation:
battery capacity10 kWh
electricity consumption 0.2 kWh/km
charging efficiency 0.9
power coefficient @ home: kW
power coefficient @ work: kW
sockets: plenty (no queuing)
socket power limit 7.4 kW
battery recharge limit: 1-hour 0100%
EV & PV & Grid
Case Helsinki Metropolitan region Area (1 million people)
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Maximum PV power overflow at peak conditions:
on consumption
and evenly
100% of PV placed
based on load
100% of PV evenly
placed
0 EVs 50,000 EVs (a 10kWh) 100,000 EVs
Large-scale PV+EV case for Helsinki:
2 GWp PV (1/3 of yearly demand, 6x min. summer demand)
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EXTRA
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How to build your own
power plant in 1 minute ?
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http://vimeo.com/66544428
http://vimeo.com/66544428http:///http://vimeo.com/66544428
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Peter Lund 2013
1 wind turbine = 3-10 GWh electricity
(ca1000-3000 households)
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Wind power: now 3 % of world electricity, 25% in 2050 ? Costs may drop by
Solar electricity (PV) : % of world electricity ($100 B business), 5-25% in 2050; Price
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Mass-production (roll-to-roll) of
solar cells
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Source: Janne Halme
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Fuel
Electrochemical conversion of fuel to electricity
Fuel Cell (solid oxide fuel cell)
electrolyte
O2 + 4e- = 2 O2-
2 O2- + 2 H2 = 2 H2O + 4 e-
4 e-
anode
cathode
O2-
Courtesy Bin Zhu
Oxidant
Peter Lund 2013