leap study of edmonton voters - the western standard
TRANSCRIPT
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
LEAP study of Edmonton votersMajority support relocation of Lucy, the
elephant nobody forgets
Photo: Alex Pugliese
About Mainstreet
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Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted on January 18 2021. among a
sample of 1113 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in the City of Edmonton. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR) and online panel using Survey Monkey .
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population in Edmonton according to
Census 2016. The poll was commissioned by Lucy’s
Edmonton Advocates Project (LEAP).
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.93% 19
times out of 20. Margins of error are higher in each
subsample.
The frame consisted of Mainstreet Research’s
commercial directory which includes both current
landlines and past directories ported to cellular
lines. An online sample collected using Survey
Monkey was also included that consisted of voters
under 35 years of age only. The Directory
components are 30% cellular lines and 70%
landlines. The RDD component was 80% cellular
lines and 20% landlines.
The results are weighted for age and gender.
As with all polls, there are other sources of
potential error and bias beyond the margin of error
indicated above including but not limited to
coverage error, sampling error, mode bias, social
desirability and house effect bias.
For more information on Lucy’s Edmonton
Advocates Project (LEAP), please visit:
www.leapforlucy.com
Majority support Lucy relocation to Sanctuary
Meanwhile Mayor's race anybody's to win
Two thirds majority of Edmonton voters (66.7%) who expressed an opinion on the
relocation of Lucy the elephant, support her relocation, compared to one third (33%) who
said they did not support the relocation. More than 8 in 10 Edmonton voters expressed an
opinion, just 2 in 10 (19.2%) had no opinion.
Almost twice as many people (26% to 17%) surveyed said they were either much more or
somewhat more likely to vote for someone who supported the relocation of Lucy. That
opinion was shared across genders and age groups. The poll shows the race for Mayor with
no incumbent is wide open, and support for Lucy’s relocation having a significant impact.
In the Mayors race, we find a very open race between the four most likely candidates with
more than 6 in 10 voters remaining undecided and nearly 7 in 10 (68.8%) not decided on
any of the four likely candidates. In terms of the impact of this issue, it appears to be more
significant to supporters of Mike Nikel and Cheryl Watson than the other two candidates.
At this early stage of the election year, and with incumbent Don Iveson not seeking re-
election, a majority of voters simply don't like their current options.
A heightened grassroots public advocacy campaign during this election could be useful in
shoring up support for relocation. 13% said that they were much more likely to vote for a
candidate that supported relocation. Three of the 12 Edmonton council races in 2017 were
decided by a smaller margin than this so being on the wrong side of public opinion might
cause a candidate to win or lose in their ward in a quarter of the council seats.
"The issue of safely relocating Lucy does receive a
significant majority of the support among Edmonton
voters. said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. "While more than two thirds are not decided on
how they might vote, just 19% don't have an opinion on the
relocation of Lucy the elephant." he added. "While we did
not ask awareness of this as an issue in the coming election,
the contrast between those two measures means
Lucy illicits opinions from voters' he added. "Perhaps she
could run for Mayor herself, they do say she’s the elephant
nobody forgets".
The City of Edmonton spends an average of $250,000 per year to house, feed and care for the elephant known as “Lucy” at the Edmonton Valley Zoo. Do you believe this is a good use of municipal tax dollars?
The elephant known as Lucy could be moved to an elephant sanctuary at no cost to the City of Edmonton. Zoo staff say she can’t be transported safely, while other experts disagree. If she could be transported safely and at no cost to the City, would you support the relocation of Lucy to a sanctuary?
And if the next election were held today, how would you
vote, or are leaning towards voting for Mayor?
And if the next election were held today, how would you
vote, or are leaning towards voting for Mayor?
Contact Mainstreet Research about this poll: For general inquiries please email [email protected]. For interview requests, please email [email protected] call 416-570-3762.
The next municipal election will take place on Monday,
October 18th 2021. Would you be more or less likely to
support a candidate who supported the relocation of the
elephant known as Lucy?
Contact Mainstreet Research about this poll: For general inquiries please email [email protected]. For interview requests, please email [email protected] call 416-570-3762.
QUESTIONNAIRE
Now, to begin, please tell us, if you recall, did you vote in the last election for Mayor of Edmonton?
Yes
No
Not Sure/ Don’t Recall
The City of Edmonton spends an average of $250,000 per year to house, feed and care for the elephant known
as “Lucy” at the Edmonton Valley Zoo. Do you believe this is a good use of municipal tax dollars?
Yes
No
Not Sure/ Don’t Recall
The City of Edmonton spends an average of $250,000 per year to house, feed and care for the elephant known
as “Lucy” at the Edmonton Valley Zoo. Do you believe this is a good use of municipal tax dollars?
Yes
No
Not Sure/ Don’t Recall
The next municipal election will take place on Monday, October 18th 2021. Would you be more or less likely to
support a candidate who supported the relocation of the elephant known as Lucy?
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Neither more nor less likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Not Sure/Don’t know
And if the next election were held today, how would you vote, or are leaning towards voting for Mayor?
Mike Nickel
Kim Krushell
Cheryll Watson
Andrew Knack
Someone else
Undecided
Just two more quick questions, first, can you tell us what age category you belong to?
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
And what is your gender or gender identity?
Male
Female
Other
Contact LEAP Contacts
Mary-Ann Holm [email protected]
Judy Malone [email protected]