league of women voters october 2012 final
TRANSCRIPT
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Taggert J. Brooks, PhDChair and Associate Professor of Economics
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
Budgets: Austerity vs. Investment
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Long run versus Short run
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Short run
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12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumu-lative Decline from NBER Peak (pct)
1990
2001
2007
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2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2% Change in GDP since Q1 2008
US
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
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The Fiscal Cliff
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Long run
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Growth in Real GDP/capita, 1300-2100
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Government Spending
Defense Infrastructure Education Transfers Health Other?
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Medicare and Med-
icaidDefenseSocail Se-
curitySafety Net
Benefits for VetsInterest
Infrastruc-ture
Education
Research
International
Other
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Federal Spending as % of Budget
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Future versus Present
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Present
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-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0Actual Budget Balance with 5 Year OMB Forecasts
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-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0Budget Balance as Percentage of GDP
Year Democrats
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JapanGreece
ItalyBelgiumPortugal
United KingdomIceland
HungaryFranceAustria
United StatesIreland
NetherlandsSpain
PolandGermany
TurkeyFinland
DenmarkSlovak RepublicCzech Republic
CanadaSweden
KoreaNew Zealand
MexicoNorway
SwitzerlandLuxembourg
Australia
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2010 Debt to GDP Ratio
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1913 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 19611969 1977 1985 1993 2001 20090
25
50
75
100
Top Marginal Tax Rate
Democrats
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DenmarkSwedenBelgium
FranceFinlandNorway
SpainUnited Kingdom
IsraelGermany
CanadaPolandGreece
SwitzerlandJapan
United StatesTurkeyKoreaChile
MexicoOECD Ave
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Taxes as Percent of GDP 2005
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Future
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Means-Tested Transfers
AFDC/TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families)
CTC (child tax credit) EITC (earned income tax credit) Medicaid SSI (Supplemental Security Income), WIC (The Special Supplemental Nutrition
Program for Women, Infants, and Children) Food Stamps, General Assistance, Housing
Assistance, Free and Reduced Lunches
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Social Insurance Transfers
SSDI (disability insurance), Medicare, Social Security Retirement, UI (unemployment insurance), Veterans Benefits, WC (workers compensation)
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Transfers to All
Medicare Social Security Retirement
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1960197519902005202020352050206520800
10
20
30
Medicare and Medicaid Spending Only
Ryan’s Cap Federal Spending
Percent of GDP
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19601970198019902000201020202030204020502060207020800
10
20
30
40
50Spending as a % of GDP
Medicare and Medicaid
Ryan’s Cap
Total Fed Government Spending
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Louis D. Brandeis
“We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.”
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Top 1% of Income Earners Share of Total Income – U.S.
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Louis D. Brandeis
“We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.”
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Thanks. Questions?
Taggert J. Brooks, PhDAssociate Professor of EconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin-La Crosse