Leading Acquisition Series: Leading in Permanent WhitewaterSteve Firestone, Ph. D.Defense Systems Management CollegeDAUNovember 4, 2020

• Steve Firestone, Ph. D.• Intermittent Professor – DAU, ALD instructor• Associate Professor/Director of M.A. in Organizational

Leadership Program – Regent University• Retired Naval Aviator – C130s, SH60Bs, T34s• U.S. Fleet Forces Command (USFF)• Joint Forces Staff College (JFSC)

• My experience in permanent whitewater• Naval Aviation and USFF • Crisis Action Team Lead• Personal life

Today’s Presenter

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VUCA Defined

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Volatile

Uncertain

Complex

Ambiguous

The environment requires you to react quickly and adaptively to ongoing changes that are unpredictable and out of your control

Not enough information; the environment demands that you take action without certainty

The environment is dynamic with many interdependencies, not all of which may be known; cause and effect are frequently not obvious, multiple causes are in play

The environment is unfamiliar and outside of your and other’s experience

Introduction

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“The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”

~ Alvin Toffler

Source: Alvin Toffler (1984). Future Shock Bantam Books

Your ability to adapt to the VUCA world is what will make a crucial difference to

where you find yourself, even just five years from now

Objectives

• Define the concepts of permanent whitewater and VUCA• Describe the VUCA environment• Discuss ways to navigate the VUCA environment• Determine new strengths needed to succeed in a VUCA world• Present a tool for you to use to succeed in this era of permanent

whitewater/VUCA

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Desired Work and Life Environment

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While we would like things to be calm and predictable . . .

Actual Work and Life Environment

Instead of calmness,

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we get whitewater

Poll 1

• Which slide do you think represents your life better?

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A B

Poll 2

• Which slide do you think represents your work better?

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A B

Permanent Whitewater

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Question 1

• Can you think of examples of VUCA in the world around us (i.e. world and national events)?

• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous

• Please type them in the chat window.

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Why VUCA is Important to the Acquisition Community

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Question 2

• Can you think of examples of VUCA in your organization?

• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous

• Please type them in the chat window.

• Did any of these overlap with the example(s) you thought of in the previous question on VUCA in the world?

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Historical Perspective

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+

-

Rate

of C

hang

e

Time

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. So, we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st Century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”

~Ray Kurzweil

The Changing Workplace

• Large scale changes that have occurred throughout time have impacted everyone in the organization:

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Industrial Age

Workers are cogs in a lineSystematic

Task FocusedLeader plans/ thinks;

workers do

Information Age

Information = PowerTeam focused

Authority still lies with the “leader”

Knowledge Age

Ideas = PowerInnovation focused

CollaborationInformation and

leadership are shared

The World Today vs. Yesterday

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Permanent Whitewater• VUCA = Permanent Whitewater• Calm water is a thing of the past• Leaders must adapt

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VUCA in Defense Acquisition

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Factors driving VUCA in Defense

Acquisition

Technology:• Disruptive change• Breakthrough

innovation• Artificial

intelligence• 3D printing• IoT (Internet of

Things)

Policies/procedures:• Section 809• Middle tier of acquisition• Other transaction

authority• Rapid prototyping/fielding

of capability to warfighter• Back to Basics

Environment:• Natural disasters• Climate change

National Defense:• New patterns of

world conflict• Dysfunction of

national governments• Supply chain

globalization and interdependence

• Scarcity of rare earth minerals

• Depletion of home-grown STEM resources

• VUCA can best be described as four different environments in a matrix with two dimensions:

1. How much do you know about the situation?2. How much can you predict the results of your actions?

The VUCA Environment

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How

wel

l can

you

pre

dict

the

resu

lts o

f you

r act

ions

?

How much do you know about the situation? +

+

- -

volatilityExample: Prices fluctuate in your supply chain after a natural disaster impacts one of your suppliers

uncertaintyExample: A new vendor’s product launch muddies the future of the vendors you use on your program and the market in general

complexityExample: You are working foreign military sales with many countries, all with unique regulatory environments, tariffs, and cultures

ambiguityExample: You decide to use an immature technology on your program to speed up delivery to the warfighter

Question 3

• What are some ways you can better operate and lead in the VUCA environment?

• Please type your examples in the chat window.

• Listen Well• Think Divergently• Celebrate Success

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Leadership Challenges in a VUCA World

• Only 18% of leaders are “very capable” of leading in a VUCA world*

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*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board

‒ Anticipating and reacting to the nature and speed of change

‒ Acting decisively without always having clear direction and certainty

‒ Navigating through complexity, chaos, and confusion

‒ Maintaining effectivenessdespite constant surprises and a lack of predictability

Challenges in a VUCA World

• Percent of HR professionals who report leaders are incapable of meeting the challenges of:

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‒ Volatility – 40%*‒ Uncertainty – 35%*‒ Complexity – 36%*‒ Ambiguity – 31%*

*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board

Volatility Challenges• Volatility - exponential increase in the type, speed, volume, and scale

of change• Challenges you might face in a volatile environment:

• Pace of change is faster than our ability to respond• Pace of change requires accelerated decision-making• Change is large-scale, occurs suddenly, requiring an urgent response• Constant feeling of being overwhelmed, stressed, anxious, and unprepared• VUCA and hierarchical command and control structures do not work well together

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Uncertainty Challenges

• Uncertainty - lack of predictability with issues and events

• Challenges you might face in an uncertain environment:

• Inability to clearly understand a situation• Insufficient information• Too much information• Failure to understand the outcome of

events

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Complexity Challenges• Complexity - confounding of issues and the associated chaos that ensues• Challenges you might face in a complex environment:

• Mandates or pressure from above

• Problems are complex and interdependent

• Doing more with less• Conflicting expectations• No time for reflection

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Ambiguity Challenges• Ambiguity - mixed meanings surrounding conditions and causes of the who,

what, when, where, how, and why behind the things that are happening that are unclear, and hard to ascertain

• Challenges you might face in an ambiguous environment:• Failure to understand the significance of an event• High risk of misinterpreting events and responding inappropriately• Being too far removed

from the source and context of the events

• Having to act based on limited understanding

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Navigating VUCA

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Build the skills to be on top of your game, be in great condition, and have high energy levels

Volatility

Vision • Relentlessly communicate

your vision and lead people towards it

• Believe in yourself and others

• Ensure your team’s efforts are aligned and focused on the right areas

Uncertainty

Understanding• Ask questions that challenge

the status quo• Collaborate widely and

encourage multiple perspectives

• Be empathetic, get where people are coming from–their hopes, fears, and desires

• Explore new ideas, reflect, seek constructive criticism

Complexity

Clarity• Continuously focus on

desired outcomes• Be aware of the limits

imposed on you by old, comfortable ways of thinking

• Use your intuition, trust your gut, and your experience

• Approach problems from a systems thinking perspective

Ambiguity

Agility• Adapt quickly to changing

circumstances and make decisions with confidence

• Fail fast and learn from your mistakes

• Value social networks as well as hierarchy

• Set people free to do great work

• Know your limits, be comfortable that you just don’t know

Poll 3

• Which one of the four environments of VUCA are you the least comfortable with?

VolatilityUncertaintyComplexityAmbiguity

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The VUCA Paradox

• We cannot perfectly predict the future.

• But we need to be able to make sense of and understand the future in order to help our organizations to thrive in this VUCA world.

• As shown earlier there is a tool to help you succeed in the VUCA environment.

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Volatility Vision

Uncertainty Understanding

Complexity Clarity

Ambiguity Agility

Closing Thoughts/Questions?

• How can you use this understanding of VUCA and the tools presented to deal with permanent whitewater in your role in the acquisition community?

• This webcast was based on a class in our Acquisition Leadership Development (ALD) program.

• Any Questions?• Please reach out to me with

any other questions.• stephen.firestone@dau.edu

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