leadership summit presentation - bill van amburg

X Prize BusinessAccelerating Vehicle Adoption

Clean Transportation Clean Transportation Technologies and Technologies and SolutionsSolutions SMSM

Bill Van AmburgSenior Vice President

Progressive Automotive X PrizeLeadership Summit

July 27, 2010

Copyright CALSTART 2010 2

Criteria Emissions – New Ozone Rules Coming

• EPA announces it will strengthen ozone rules to meet health standards

• Would replace standards from Bush Admin which were not as protective of health as science advisors had recommended

• New rules would drop ozone limits to no more than 0.060 – 0.070 ppm ozone over 8 hours, phased in over up to 20 years– Current limit 0.075 ppm

• Hundreds of additional counties will fall into non-compliance (from 322 today up to as many as 650 out of 675 monitored)

• EPA finalizing rule – will issue final standards by Aug 31, 2010 – states would need to outline plans to meet standards by 2013 which go into effect in 2014

• Most-impacted regions receive to 2031 to comply


Regional Impact of Ozone Rules Example: Southern California

• LA region still has worst air quality in nation

• SCAQMD supports the new ozone levels, but estimates to achieve them will require reducing NOx in region by additional 88-91%!

• Could mean transition away from fossil fuel combustion

• District believes it cannot achieve standards if federal emission sources (ships, trains, planes) do not significantly reduce their impacts

We calculate that to demonstrate attainment of the proposed standard range would require 88 to 91% reductions in NOx emissions. This preliminary analysis means that we need to essentially transition out of fossil fuel combustion and move toward zero-emission technologies. - Dr. Barry Wallerstein, SCAQMD Executive Officer, in comments to EPA on proposed rule


Challenges

Yes -• Cost; Distribution; Service; Scale Manufacturing

But also:• Utility to User• Value Equation

– What is the benefit case for the user?– Fuel economy?– What else?


Efficiency: What is Your Competition?

Average car: 12,000 miles/year; 20 mpg; (25mpg)

600 gallons/year @$3/gal = $1800/year

~12,000 lbs CO2 - 6 tons

(480 gallons/year @$3/gal = $1440/year)

**Commute Car: 7500 miles/year; 27.5 mpg

((273 gallons/year @$3/gal = $819/year))

Xprize Car: 12,000 miles/year; 100 mpg

120 gallons/year @$3/gal = $360/year

~2400 lbs CO2 - 2.4 tons

Save: $1440/year? ($1080) (($459))

Own 5 years: $7200 ($5400) (($2259))

Carbon savings: 3.6 tons @$3/ton? $20/ton?


Segmentation

• What utility (use) can you really provide?

• What market segments can you ideally serve with that use?

• Everyone wants to be “the car for everyone.” You are not that car. You need to start with smart segments.

• Think of finding beach heads – not your total market, but your best launch points


Example: Top Early Hybrid Truck Applications

Class 6-8 Heavy Urban delivery trucks-regional heavy distribution (beverage, grocery, postal)

Specialty Truck Applications (Class 4-7)-Utility “Bucket” trucks

-Telecom/cable trucks

Class 3-6 Urban delivery trucks-package delivery

-beverage delivery

Class 7/8 Refuse trucks

“Beach Head” Markets Show Best First Promise

North American Deployment & Assessment

24 Truck Deployment Locations

HTUF Utility Hybrid Working Group

Data Collection Will Assist with User Business Case AssessmentAEP

Alabama PowerBaltimore Gas & Electric

Duke EnergyEntergyExelon

Florida Power and LightGeorgia PowerHydro Quebec

Missouri Dept. of Trans.PG&E

Pepco/ConectivSouthern Calif Edison

TXU


Data Collection and Validation

• Three basic trucks on two main chassis identified

• High idling time

• Sufficient purchase volumes to help launch market


Engaged in “Down Select” Exercise

• Fleets identified top performance requirements critical to operations

• Then ranked/prioritized requirements to create a top-level specification

• Results agreed to by Working Group


Four “Missions”

• Mission A– 70 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 1.5 hours

hydraulic operation (cycle 1)• Mission B

– 70 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 1.5 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 1); 1.5 hours 2 kW

• Mission C– 48 miles driving; 3 service/site calls; 3 hours

hydraulic operation (cycle 1)• Mission D

– 38 miles driving; 2 service/site calls; 3 hours hydraulic operation (cycle 2)


Fuel Economy (MPG) By Mission

01

234

5678

910

Mis

sio

n F

uel

Eco

no

my,

mp

g

A B C D

Mission ID

Baseline

HEV

Fuel Economy Increase Over Baseline:

67% 62% 137% 150%


What Are Beach Heads for New Cars?

Fleet Staff Use Vehicle? Campus Car? -Business meetings, sales

Urban Errand?-Does it drive sufficient miles to pay for itself?

Urban Fleet/ Service Support?-Geek Squad

-Specialty Delivery (pizza, flowers?0

Urban Commuter? Station Car?

“Beach Head” Markets X Prize


Fleet Users

• Engage with users in your targeted segments– Many people do “voice of the customer” but few really

listen

• Listen to their needs, not just your offerings – but seek commonalities– User groups of interested first-mover fleets

• Adapt your vehicle or offering to meet their needs where you can– Does a much cheaper 75 mpg vehicle better meet their

needs?


Fleets/Corporations as Channel Partners

• Some companies have offered employee discounts on efficient vehicles– Google, Bank of America, Hyperion, Timberland -

others

• Ideal Case: will use your vehicles for own fleet uses; also offer the cars to their employees as well

• High value co-brand– Google, Apple, Progressive, Patagonia, AT&T, Verizon,

Best Buy, Microsoft


Fleet Benefits and Challenges

• Targeted launch and learn – limited customer base allows you to get it right

• Targeted service and support – geographically, vehicle use; often return to base vehicles

• Can be regular, yearly market• High expectations; price and benefit sensitive;

have been “burned” before• Need to focus on co-values (green image,

leadership, employee retention)


New Incentives: Public and Private

• What new incentives can be built around the unique benefits and attributes of your vehicles?– Quiet? Small form factor? Lower carbon

footprint? Fewer materials to make?

• Added Benefits– Preferential parking? Access to special lanes,

reduced tolls? Reduced registration? Reduced insurance?

Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM

www.calstart.org

For info contact:

Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

leadership summit presentation - bill van amburg

Documents

ppm ozone

year xprize car

health standards

ozone limits

new ozone levels

refuse trucks

new rules

utility use