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Joseph Kiesecker – Lead Scientist
The Nature Conservancy
From Paris to Practice: Energy Sprawl Solutions
“Buy land, they're not making it anymore.” - Mark Twain
20%
DEVELOPMENT
THREAT
CATEGORIES
NATURAL
LANDS
OF LANDS AT HIGH RISK
5%
OF LANDS PROTECTED
Global Assessment: Lands at Risk
Oakleaf, Kennedy, Baruch-Mordo & Kiesecker (2015) A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion. PLoS ONE 10 (10): e0138334. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138334
Potential
Impact
Residual
Impact
Mitigation Hierarchy
Restore
Offset
No
Net
Loss
Minimize
Kiesecker, J.M, H. Copeland, A. Pocewicz, N. Nibbelink, B. McKenney J. Dahlke, M. Holloran and D. Stroud 2009 A Framework for
Implementing Biodiversity Offsets: Selecting Sites and Determining Scale. BioScience 59:77-84.
Impact
+
- Avoid
Avoid
Minimize
Restore
Offset
What needs to change?
GO BIG
-Connect Global commitments to Local Scales
-Site based to landscape scale
-Revise current EIA process?
GO EARLY
-Advanced planning
-Project future potential development
-Develop quantitative conservation goals
FINE FILTER
Species
Other Goals i.e. Eco. Services
Social/Cultural
(X) Acres of habitat needed to maintain viability
( Y ) Acres of habitat or point locations (i.e. nests)
needed to maintain viability
Select BIODIVERSITY ELEMENTS Set GOALS
assess ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Conservation Portfolio Design:
Development Portfolio Design: Cost / Suitability Index
•Road & RR Density
• Population Density
• Converted Land Cover
• Irrigated Land Cover
• Housing density
Future development pressure
automated
site selection
(MARXAN with ZONES)
Integrated Conservation & Development Planning
COARSE FILTER
Vegetation Types
( Z ) Amount of production
Achieving Conservation Goals in the Face of Development
endemic / restricited range
Landform classification
wet/salty depressions
key evolutionary processes
unique ecosystems
source: McCarthy et al. (2009)
source: : McCarthy (2000)
globally and nationally endangered
conservation portfolio = critical habitat
congretory and migratory
+
=
Figure 4. Identification of critical habitat in the Gobi region for the purposes of implementation of the IFC Performance Standard 6. Critical habitats are areas important for Globally or
nationally Critically Endangered or Endangered species; Restricted-range or endemic species; Concentrations of migratory and congregator species; Highly threatened and unique
ecosystems; and Key evolutionary processes. These features can be built into the design of a conservation portfolio and serve to identify critical habitat.
Initial portfolio and existing mineral leases
Areas of potential conflict with mineral development
Initial portfolio re-designed to minimize conflict with mineral development
Portfolio re-designed to minimize conflict with mineral development
National PAs
2011 Eastern Grasslands
64,000 km2 (41%)
2013 Gobi region
34,900 km2 (19%)
2016 West & Central Mongolia
48,400 km2 (18%)
Mongolia:
conservation portfolio
National PAs
study area
Science that works
new PAs in portfolio
conservation portfolio
National PAs
study area
new PAs in portfolio
conservation portfolio
National PAs
study area
new PAs in portfolio
conservation portfolio
National PAs
study area
[1] Heiner, M., Y. Bayarjargal, J.M. Kiesecker, D. Galbadrakh, N. Batsaikhan, M. Ganbaatar, I. Odonchimeg, O. Enkhtuya, D. Enkhbat, H. von Wehrden, R. Reading, K. Olson, R. Jackson, J. Evans, B. McKenney, J. Oakleaf, K. Sochi, E. Oidov. (2013) Applying conservation priorities in the face of future development: Applying development by design in the Mongolian Gobi. The Nature Conservancy. Ulanbaatar. [Also available in Mongolian]
[2] Heiner, M., D. Galbadrakh, J.M. Kiesecker, B. McKenney, J. Evans, E. Tuguldur, D. Zumburelmaa, V. Ulziisaikhan, B. Oyungerel, D. Sanjmyatav, R. Gankhuyag, D. Enkhbat, L. Ocirhuyag, G. Sergelen, E. Girvetz and R. McDonald. (2011) Identifying Conservation Priorities in the Face of Future Development: Applying Development by Design in the Grasslands of Mongolia. The Nature Conservancy. Ulanbaatar. [Also available in Mongolian]
43% of the portfolio
9% of Mongolia
Achieving Development Goals in the Face of Conservation
Achieving Development Goals in the Face of Conservation
Obermeyer B, Manes R, Kiesecker J, Fargione J, Sochi K (2011) Development by Design: Mitigating Wind
Development’s Impacts on Wildlife in Kansas. PLoS ONE 6(10): e26698. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0026698
Achieving Development Objectives
and Conservation Goals
Simultaneously
Cattle ranching Sugarcane
• Cerrado: Global biodiversity hotspot, with less than 50% natural habitat & < 2 % protected (Klink & Machado 2005)
• Land use: cattle ranching and increasingly sugarcane production (Lapola et al. 2010)
• Nature conservation on agricultural (private) lands is vital and regulated by the Brazilian Forest Code (FC) (Soares-Filho et al. 2014)
• Case study: Evaluate land use patterns to meet the FC and to optimize agricultural production, biodiversity, & ecosystem services
Cerrado
Case Study
Brazilian Forest Code
Brazil pilot River
Agriculture
Agriculture
Rural Property
Permanent Preservation Area (PPA): ~5%
• Economic return ($) (Using spatial profit models of annual
revenue – annual costs)
• 539 terrestrial birds & mammal species
(Using Polasky et al. 2008 biologic model)
• Nutrients & sediments (N, P, S loads) in surface waterways
(Using InVEST models, Tallis et al. 2013)
Economic & Environmental Modeling
Agriculture Cattle ranching
Sugar cane
Biodiversity
Terrestrial Surface Water Quality
current
20
025
030
035
040
0
#S
pecie
s (
bird
s &
ma
mm
als
)
0 10 20 30 40
Agricultural profit (in million USD)
current
0
20
040
060
0
N r
edu
ctio
n (
in to
ns)
0 10 20 30 40
Agricultural profit (in million USD)
Improved BD
+ 94 species
Improved water quality
(N, P, S loads reduced by 50%, 30%, 7%)
Brazil pilot: Optimizing land use decision-making
Current Landscape
Kennedy, C.M., P.L. Hawthorne, D.A. Miteva, L. Baumgarten, K. Sochi, M. Matsumoto, J.S. Evans, S. Polasky, P. Hamel, E.M. Vieira, P.F. Develey, C.H. Sekercioglu, A.D. Davidson, E.M. Ulhorn, & J. Kiesecker (i2016). Optimizing land use decision-making to sustain Brazilian Agricultural profits, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Biological Conservation, 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.10.039
Optimized for Biodiversity
Optimized for Water Quality
Average WQ reduced by 30%
• N loads increased by 41% • S loads increased by 8% • P loads increased by 42%
Species reduced by 58%
• 122 fewer species
Brazil pilot Optimizing land use decision-making
Optimized for Biodiversity and Water Quality
94% species
77-100% of average water quality
ABCs for Resolving Land Use Conflicts
• Ahead of the impacts
• Bigger scale – landscape-level planning
• Conservation outcome
• Development objectives
Avoid
Minimize
Restore
Offset
Predicting The Future
Examining Tradeoffs
Policy Drivers
Biofuels
Solar
Wind
Hydropower
Conventional oil & gas
Unconventional oil & gas
Coal
Agriculture
Urban
Mining
Oakleaf, James R, Christina M Kennedy, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Paul C West, James S Gerber, Larissa Jarvis, and Joseph Kiesecker. 2015. “A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.” PloS One 10 (10). Public Library of Science: e0138334. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138334.
What, Where, How Much? Global Development Risk Assessment
18% (n=360) of “sensitive” watersheds will transition into a higher impact status 7% (n=130) will move into a “nonsupporting” or “urban” drainage impact status.
Putting Science to Work
Science
Geomorphometrics Toolbox
Gobi Ecoregional Assessment Web Map
Riparian / Wetland Model Toolbox
Policy
Mongolia Mitigation Design Tool Brazil LegalGeo
Stakeholder Engagement
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Trends and Conditions Assessment Tool Central Appalachians Critical Habitat Assessment
Policy Assessments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
IA Avoidance Minim-rest Offsets Monitoring
For more details see: Villarroya A, Barros AC, Kiesecker J (2014) Policy Development for Environmental Licensing and Biodiversity Offsets in Latin America. PLoS ONE 9(9): e107144. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0107144
Snow Leopards of the World: The Science, Politics, and Conservation of Panthera Uncia
Thomas McCarthy and David Mallon, Editors
Global Lands Program: www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/urgentissues/smart-development/index.htm