le cycle ´economique du p´etroleschindle/talks/2019-3_cours.pdf · toensmeier, e. (2016). the...
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References
Le cycle economique du petrole
Ian Schindlerhttps://www.math.univ-toulouse.fr/˜schindle/
IMTTSE
ASPO France
BY:© C©creative commons license share alike
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References
La science
Francis Bacon (Newton)
Richard FeynmanGraeber (2014).Ansatz : production d’exergie (agriculture incluse) = moteur de laproduction economique.
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References
La science
Francis Bacon (Newton)
Richard Feynman
Graeber (2014).Ansatz : production d’exergie (agriculture incluse) = moteur de laproduction economique.
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References
La science
Francis Bacon (Newton)
Richard FeynmanGraeber (2014).
Ansatz : production d’exergie (agriculture incluse) = moteur de laproduction economique.
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References
La science
Francis Bacon (Newton)
Richard FeynmanGraeber (2014).Ansatz : production d’exergie (agriculture incluse) = moteur de laproduction economique.
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References
Energie le moteur de la production economique
18ieme siecle : Richard Cantillon, Francois Quesnay.20ieme siecle :
1 Le club de Rome : Meadows (1974).2 Permaculture : Mollison and Holmgren (1978).
21ieme siecle : Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality.
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References
Cycles seculaires (via Gail Tverberg)
Turchin and Nefedov (2009)
Fraser and Rimas (2011) Bardi (2017)
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References
Cycles seculaires (via Gail Tverberg)
Turchin and Nefedov (2009)
Fraser and Rimas (2011) Bardi (2017)
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References
Cost share
Illig and Schindler (2017); Garcia et al. (tted)p = prix, q = quantite et Y def= PIB.
YEdef= cout energie
YE{def= Y − YE
Y = YE + YE{
CEdef= YE
Y = YEYE + YE{
= pqY (0.1)
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References
Conclusions
(0.1) =⇒
∂Y∂qY =
∂p∂qp −
∂CE∂qC + 1
q (0.2)
IY (t1, t2) = Ip(t1, t2)Iq(t1, t2)/ICE (t1, t2) (0.3)
ou Ix (t1, t2) def= x(t2)/x(t1).Croissance : ∂CE
∂q < 0.
Stagflation : ∂CE∂q ≥ 0 =⇒ ∂p
∂q ≥ 0 !Pouvoir determine par la taille de CS Graeber (2018).
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References
Carey King
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References
Finance
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References
Previsions pic petrole
1 Fitch : LTO production ↗, donc prix bas pour les prochainesannees.
2 Energy Information Administration : pic apres 2050.3 Agence Internationale de l’Energie : pic en 2040 si
investissements sont la, si non, problemes vers 2020.4 ASPO : pic hors LTO 2015 (Aleklett et Campbell) 2016
(Laherrere).5 Coyne et Pukite : pic ∈ [2023, 2027] .6 Problemes vers 2020-2022 :
1 AIE2 HSBC3 Haliburton4 Citibank
7 Kaplan, Patterson : 2018.9 / 30
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References
Extraction Mondiale 1994 a 2018 (Matt Mushalnik)
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References
Pics passes
• Charbon France et Angleterre : 1913.• Petrole ≤$10 : 1973.• Union Sovietique : 1989.• Petrole ≤$20 : 2005.
Previsions :• Models : interpolation.• Calculs Bottom up.
Ressources ou reserves ?
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References
Modele du prix
p = exp(aτ + bQ + cDQ) ou τ = taux et DQ def= Q(t)−Q(t − 1).
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2040
6080
100
120
Fitted model : Simple regression (1966 − 2017)
PricesFitted prices
R2 = 0.9858
Q = 0.05
DQ = −0.07
Τ = 1.17
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References
Split 1
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
2040
6080
100 Price
Fitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 1966 − 1980
R2 = 0.9889
Q = 0.06
DQ = −0.1
Τ = 0.39
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2040
6080
100
PriceFitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 1980 − 2000
R2 = 0.9903
Q = 0.04
DQ = −0.06
Τ = 1.94
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References
Split 2
Time
Pric
e in
US
$ p
er b
arre
l
2000 2005 2010 2015
4060
8010
012
0
PriceFitted price (simple)Fitted price (generalized)
Period 2000 − 2017
R2 = 0.9909
Q = 0.05
DQ = −0.04
Τ = −0.04
(H9) p(τ)↘
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References
Taux
Time
Ann
ual r
ate
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Annual federal funds rate (1965 − 2017)
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References
Symptomes economiques de la stagflation
CE ↗ =⇒ CE{ ↘.
1 Baisse des salaires =⇒ la difference entre l’elite et la classeproductive ↗.
2 Divisions politiques : autocratie ↗.3 Competition entre elites.
Exemple : 1930–45 Tverberg (2017).
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References
Symptomes economiques de la stagflation
CE ↗ =⇒ CE{ ↘.1 Baisse des salaires =⇒ la difference entre l’elite et la classe
productive ↗.2 Divisions politiques : autocratie ↗.3 Competition entre elites.
Exemple : 1930–45 Tverberg (2017).
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References
Theorie
Economie financiere vs economie reelle.1 La creation monetaire stimule l’economie financiere (Keynes,
Keen, Dalio).2 Quand l’economie financiere n’est pas � synchronisee � avec
l’economie reelle deux possibilites :1 Inflation.2 Contraction economique.
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References
Inflation ?
Les banques centrales detiennent $ 22× 1012 actifs financiers,environ 10% du total Prins (2018) =⇒ inflation des valeurs desactifs financiers.
ConjectureLe probleme dual est deflationiste.
DefinitionLa Permaculture est une culture a base de la science des systemesapplique au probleme dual.
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References
Inflation ?
Les banques centrales detiennent $ 22× 1012 actifs financiers,environ 10% du total Prins (2018) =⇒ inflation des valeurs desactifs financiers.
ConjectureLe probleme dual est deflationiste.
DefinitionLa Permaculture est une culture a base de la science des systemesapplique au probleme dual.
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References
Exemple (Depienne)
Paradox de Jevons Illig and Schindler (2017).
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References
Les Phases
• L’expansion : petroliers transforment le petrole en monnaie=⇒ CE{ ↗.
• La stagflation : investissement dans le probleme dual rapporteplus que l’expansion.
• La contraction : petroliers transforment la monnaie en petrole=⇒ CE{ ↘.
• Moins de benefices.• Contraction economique chronique.• Hyperinflation.
Toute activite miniere se termine ou bien par la faillite, ou bien parl’hyperinflation et la demission des ouvriers. (60 000 minesabandonnees en Australie).
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References
Monnaie en petroleStress =⇒ court terme Mullainathan and Shafir (2013)
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References
Monnaie en petroleStress =⇒ court terme Mullainathan and Shafir (2013)
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References
Signes de fin de la stagflation
1 Competition entre elites• La competition pour investissements.• Des guerres diplomatiques.• La guerre civile.
2 Le vol.3 La corruption.
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References
Consequences du manque d’entretien :
Libye ?Nigeria ?Mexique ?Algerie ?Colombie ?Angola ?Oman ?Iran ?
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References
Consequences de la speculation
Sables bitumineux Canada.25 / 30
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References
Le Jardin des Fraternites Ouvrieres
1800 m2, 5 000 varietes de legumes, de cereales, plantesaromatiques et medicinales, plus de 2000 arbres fruitiers, . . . .Ecoagriculture ( bio.
La Coree du Nord, le Venezuela. Cuba.
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References
Le Jardin des Fraternites Ouvrieres
1800 m2, 5 000 varietes de legumes, de cereales, plantesaromatiques et medicinales, plus de 2000 arbres fruitiers, . . . .Ecoagriculture ( bio. La Coree du Nord, le Venezuela. Cuba.
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References
Sequestration
http://carbonfarmingsolution.com/carbon-sequestration-rates-and-stocks.Toensmeier (2016).
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References
Le compost
• Joseph Orszagh http://eautarcie.org/• Joseph Jenkins https://humanurehandbook.com/
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References
Monnaie Dette (par Galuel)
Graeber (2014)
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References
Bardi, U. (2017). The Seneca Effect Why Growth is Slow ButCollapse is Rapid. Springer.
Fraser, E. and A. Rimas (2011). Empires of Food: Feast, Famine,and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Free Press.
Garcia, L. E., A. Illig, and I. Schindler (submitted). Oil cycledynamics and future price scenarios. working paper .
Graeber, D. (2014). Debt The First 5000 Years Second Edition.Melville House.
Graeber, D. (2018). Bullshit Jobs, a Theory. Simon & Schuster.Illig, A. and I. Schindler (2017). Oil extraction, economic growth,
and oil price dynamics. BioPhysical Economics and ResourceQuality 2(1), 1.
Meadows, D. (1974). The Limits to Growth. Universe Books.Mollison, B. and D. Holmgren (1978). Permaculture One. Corgi.Mullainathan, S. and E. Shafir (2013). Scarcity: Why Having Too
Little Means So Much. Penguin UK.30 / 30
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References
Prins, N. (2018). Collusion How Central Bankers Rigged theWorld. Nation Books.
Toensmeier, E. (2016). The Carbon Farming Solution A GlobalToolkit of Perennial Crops and Regenerative AgriculturePractices for Climate Change Mitigation and Food Security.Chelsea Green Publishing.
Turchin, P. and S. Nefedov (2009). Secular Cycles. PrincetonUniversity Press.
Tverberg, G. (2017). The depression of the 1930’s was an energycrisis. blog. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/12/19/the-depression-of-the-1930s-was-an-energy-crisis.
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