Choose a College Major That Makes Sense in

Today’s EconomyLaurence Shatkin, PhD

Senior Product DeveloperJIST Publishing

Survey: Most popular response (80%):

◦ “To find better job opportunities” Next most popular:

◦ “To reach my goals in life”◦ “To earn more”

Why go to college?

What do the trends in the economy mean for your plans for college?

Routine physical tasks Routine decisions Examples

◦ Welding◦ Call routing◦ Travel reservations◦ Retail sales◦ Warehousing

Big trend #1: automation

Routine physical tasks Routine decisions Examples

◦ Manufacturing◦ Help desk◦ Animation◦ Airplane service◦ X-ray interpretation

Big trend #2: offshoring

Tasks that involve more than routine physical effort◦ Unpredictable locations (e.g., plumber)◦ Emotional support (e.g., counselor)◦ Motivation (e.g., manager)

What can’t be automated #1

Nonroutine decision making◦ Airport trolley vs. airport van◦ SurveyMonkey vs. employment interviewer◦ Red-light camera vs. police officer

What can’t be automated #2

Tasks where the client/object is on-site◦ Personal contact (e.g., most health care,

grooming)◦ Physical contact (e.g., auto repair, plumbing)◦ Physical intervention (e.g., law enforcement,

firefighting)◦ Time constraint (e.g., fresh food)

What can’t be offshored #1

Tasks that require highly skilled personal communication◦ Help desk (sometimes)◦ Creative collaboration (e.g., comedy writer, app

developer)◦ In-person entertainment (e.g., musician)

What can’t be offshored #2

High-skill jobs are growing Middle-skill jobs are shrinking

◦ Because of automation◦ Because of offshoring

Low-skill jobs are growing

Result: “Hollowing-out” of the workforce

Source: Census Bureau. Analysis by Jaison R. Abel and Richard Dietz, Liberty Street Economics

Data: Census Bureau. Graph: The New York Times.

Job-specific◦ Adjusting an automobile fan belt◦ Performing a CAT scan◦ Programming an e-commerce website

Transferable◦ Mathematics◦ Complex problem solving◦ Critical thinking

Job-specific skills versus transferable skills

High-skill job or low-skill job:what’s the difference in pay?

Occupations Using Mathematics

at 3 Skill Levels

Very High

mathematicians, physicists, mechanical engineers $68,511

Mediumtravel agents, driver/sales

workers, librarians $40,657

Very Lowbailiffs, telemarketers,

crossing guards $27,470

Occupations Using Complex Problem Solving

at 3 Skill Levels

Very High

foresters, economists, sales managers $80,276

Mediumchefs and head cooks,

radiation therapists, roofers $41,671

Very Lowfloral designers, file clerks,

cashiers $23,393

Occupations Using Critical Thinking at 3 Skill Levels

Very High

judicial law clerks, microbiologists, logisticians $77,882

Mediumupholsterers, insurance sales

agents, tellers $35,661

Very Lowmodels, floor sanders and

finishers, bartenders $23,914

Which transferable skills have the biggest earnings payoff?

Skills linked to highest incomeSkill Definition

Judgment and Decision Making

Weighing the relative costs and benefits of a potential action.

Complex Problem Solving

Identifying complex problems, reviewing the options, and implementing solutions.

Active Learning Working with new material or information to grasp its implications.

Reading Comprehension

Understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work-related documents.

Critical Thinking Using logic and analysis to identify the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches.

Time Management

Managing one’s own time and the time of others.

Which skills are used by jobs with the fastest growth?

Skills linked to fastest growthSkill Definition

Service Orientation

Actively looking for ways to help people.

Active Listening Listening to what other people are saying and asking questions as appropriate.

Active Learning Working with new material or information to grasp its implications.

Speaking Talking to others to effectively convey information.

Social Perceptiveness

Being aware of others’ reactions and understanding why they react the way they do.

Writing Communicating effectively with others in writing as indicated by the needs of the audience.

I want it all: earnings and job growth

Note: Lower score means higher ranking.

What industries use these highly rewarding skills at the highest levels?

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Average Rating on Highly Rewarding Skills

Which are the most rewarding industries?

Min

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Prof

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ervice

s$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000$77,422

$72,937 $70,787 $67,541 $66,723 $63,879 $62,834

Average Annual Earnings for Bachelor's+ Occupations

Const

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Prof

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car

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5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

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35.0%

40.0%35.0% 34.2%

31.6%29.2%

20.5%18.8% 18.2%

Workforce Change 2010-20 for Bachelor's+ Occupations

Note: Lower score means higher ranking.

Retail T

rade

Prof

essio

nal, S

cientifi

c, a

nd Tec

hnical S

ervice

s

Const

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ion

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ing, q

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

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Industries Ranked Highest for Both Earnings and Growth, Bachelor's+ Occupations

GrowthEarnings

What’s the best place to prepare for highly rewarding jobs and industries?

Source: Anthony P. Carnevale, Stephen J. Rose, and Ban Cheah, The College Payoff: Education, Occupations, Lifetime Earnings

College advantage is eroding

Graph by Dylan Matthews, Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog, Washington Post site

Which of these college fields offer the biggest payoff?

Agricultural sciences

Biological sciences

Business

Computer science

Education

Engineering

Health professions

Humanities

Mathematics

Physical sciences

Social sciences

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Engi

neer

ing

Compu

ter s

cienc

e

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical s

cienc

es

Busin

ess

Health

pro

fess

ions

Biolo

gica

l scie

nces

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$85,962 $85,418

$68,814 $68,728 $66,271 $64,395

$55,240

Median Annual Earnings, Bachelor's

Note: For Health professions, includes those with higher degrees.

Health

pro

fess

ions

Biolog

ical scien

ces

Compu

ter s

cien

ce

Busin

ess

Social scien

ces

Human

ities

Educ

ation

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%15.2%

14.9% 13.5%

12.6% 12.3% 12.1% 11.7%

Projected Growth, 2010-2020, Occupations Held by Bachelor's Grads

Sources: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003; BLS

Note: For Health professions, includes those with higher degrees.

Compu

ter s

cienc

e

Health

pro

fess

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Biolo

gica

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Busin

ess

Engi

neer

ing

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical s

cienc

es0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Fields Ranked Highest for Both Earnings and Growth, Bachelor's Occupations

GrowthEarnings

Note: Lower score means higher ranking.

Which specific college majors offer the biggest payoff?

Earnings Job Growth Job Openings

Medical Preparatory Programs $100,000 Computer Systems Engineering $85,000 Pharmacy $84,000 Chemical Engineering $80,000 Electrical and Electronics Engineering $75,000 Mechanical Engineering $75,000 Aerospace, Aeronautical, and Astronautical Engineering $74,000 Computer Science $73,400 Industrial Engineering $73,000 Physics and Astronomy $72,200

Highest-paying (average of top 5 jobs employing bachelor’s grads)

Sources: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003; Bureau of Labor Statistics

Biology and Life Sciences 20.0%Computer Science 19.8%Health and Medical Technology 18.3%General Mathematics 17.8%Physical Therapy 17.6%Medical Preparatory Programs 16.5%Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technology 16.2%Physics and Astronomy 14.8%Information Systems 14.4%Mathematics and Science Teacher Education 13.9%

Fastest-growing (average of top 5 jobs employing bachelor’s grads)

Sources: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003; Bureau of Labor Statistics

Med

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Compu

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10

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20

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Majors Ranked Highest for Both Earnings and Growth, Bachelor's Occupations

GrowthEarnings

Note: Lower score means higher ranking.

But money isn’t everything!

Agricu

ltura

l scie

nces

Biolo

gica

l scie

nces

Busin

ess

Compu

ter s

cienc

e

Educ

atio

n

Engi

neer

ing

Health

pro

fess

ions

Human

ities

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical s

cienc

es

Socia

l scie

nces

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Overall Satisfaction with Job

DissatisfiedSatisfied

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Agric

ultu

ral s

cien

ces

Biolog

ical scien

ces

Busin

ess

Compu

ter s

cien

ce

Educ

ation

Engine

ering

Health

pro

fess

ions

Human

ities

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical scien

ces

Social scien

ces

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

39.5%

31.7%34.8%

59.1%

40.3%44.5%

58.1%

26.1% 28.1% 30.3%

20.2%

Percent Who Said Their Job is Closely Related to Their Major

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Agricu

ltura

l scie

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Biolo

gica

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nces

Busin

ess

Compu

ter s

cienc

e

Educ

atio

n

Engi

neer

ing

Health

pro

fess

ions

Human

ities

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical s

cienc

es

Socia

l scie

nces

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Reason Not Working in Field of Major

Pay, promotion opportunities

Working conditions (hours, equipment , environment)

Job location

Change in career or pro-fessional interests

Family-related reasons

Not available

Other reason

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Agr

icultu

ral s

cien

ces

Biologica

l scien

ces

Bus

ines

s

Com

pute

r scien

ce

Edu

catio

n

Eng

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ring

Hea

lth p

rofe

ssions

Hum

aniti

es

Mat

hem

atics

Phy

sical scien

ces

Soc

ial s

cien

ces

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

7.3%8.1% 7.4%

5.2%

10.9%

4.4%

18.5%

11.6%

8.7%

6.3%

9.9%

Percentage Who Work Part-Time

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Agr

icultu

ral s

cien

ces

Biologica

l scien

ces

Bus

ines

s

Com

pute

r scien

ce

Edu

catio

n

Eng

inee

ring

Hea

lth p

rofe

ssions

Hum

aniti

es

Mat

hem

atics

Phy

sical scien

ces

Soc

ial s

cien

ces

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

45.343.3 43.9 44.3

40.944.9

39.8 40.2 41.243.3 41.6

49 49.8 50.3 50.346.5

50.7 50 49.1 50.2 50.1 48.5

Average Work Schedule: Hours per Week and Weeks per Year

Average Hours per Week Average Weeks per Year

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

Agricu

ltura

l scie

nces

Biolo

gica

l scie

nces

Busin

ess

Compu

ter s

cienc

e

Educ

atio

n

Engi

neer

ing

Health

pro

fess

ions

Human

ities

Mat

hem

atics

Phys

ical s

cienc

es

Socia

l scie

nces

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Employer's Sector of the Economy

Education

For-profit

Not-for-profit

Self-employed

Government/military

Other

Source: National Survey of College Graduates, 2003

If you’re not satisfied with your career, it doesn’t matter how much money you earn.

If you’re not satisfied with your major, it doesn’t matter what career it prepares for.

Nonmonetary needs your major should satisfy:◦ Your interests◦ Your aptitudes◦ Your skills◦ Your personality type

“He who is contented is rich.” –Lao Tzu

Contact informationLaurence Shatkin

• E-mail: Lshatkin@jist.com• Web: www.shatkin.com• Twitter: @LaurenceShatkin• Blog: www.careerlaboratory.blogspot.com• Facebook: Laurence Shatkin, Career Information Author