laura tremblay-boyereric ross anderson a preliminary assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to...
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Laura Tremblay-BoyerLaura Tremblay-Boyer Eric Ross AndersonEric Ross Anderson
A Preliminary A Preliminary Assessment of Assessment of
Ecosystem Vulnerability Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in to Climate Change in
PanamaPanama
Presented in the McGill Panama Field Study Semester Internship Program Symposium
Research in Panama (ENVR 451)
On the 26th of April 2007 at 9:05am in the Tupper Building of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama
Host InstitutionHost Institution
Supervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana SegundoSupervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana Segundo
The Water Center for the Humid The Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Tropics of Latin America and the CaribbeanCaribbean
The Mesoamerican Regional The Mesoamerican Regional Visualization and Monitoring SystemVisualization and Monitoring System
EVCCEVCCan index of an index of eecosystem cosystem
vvulnerability to ulnerability to cclimate limate cchangehange
I.I. Sea level riseSea level riseElevación del nivel del marElevación del nivel del mar
II.II. Ecosystem GeometryEcosystem GeometryGeometría de los ecosistemasGeometría de los ecosistemas
III.III. Climatic nicheClimatic nicheEspacio climáticoEspacio climático
IV.IV. Species SensitivitySpecies SensitivitySensibilidad de las especiesSensibilidad de las especies
The main tool for this project was Geographical The main tool for this project was Geographical Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly provided by CATHALACprovided by CATHALAC
MethodsMethods
Ethics StatementEthics Statement• Credibility of the resultsCredibility of the results
Vulnerability values were calculated for each Vulnerability values were calculated for each ecosystemecosystem patch patch of Panama according to its of Panama according to its ecosystem typeecosystem type
Ecosystems: types and Ecosystems: types and patchespatches
Example: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patchesExample: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patchesTropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest (500-1000m Caribbean, 700-Tropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest (500-1000m Caribbean, 700-
1200m Pacific) – no human intervention1200m Pacific) – no human intervention
37 ecosystem types37 ecosystem types 1303 patches1303 patches
Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero to one meter was selectedto one meter was selected
A vulnerability value based on this density A vulnerability value based on this density was obtainedwas obtained
EVCCEVCC11 - Sea level rise - Sea level rise
1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core
EVCCEVCC22 - Ecosystem - Ecosystem geometrygeometry
is more vulnerable thanis more vulnerable than
is more is more vulnerable vulnerable
thanthan
2. Relative Perimeter2. Relative Perimeter
A B
C D
C
1 km2
3. For each ecosystem patch, average Gower metric of all cells for temperature and precipitation
4. Independently rank average Gower metric of all ecosystem patches on a scale from 1 to 10 for temperature and precipitation
Gower metric for each 1 km2 cell:
Predicted change in temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050 and 2099
Intra-annual temperature and precipitation range
EVCCEVCC33 – Climatic Niche of the – Climatic Niche of the EcosystemsEcosystems
C
++
EVCC3 – Results
C
EVCC3 rank for temperature vs. precipitation, area of bubble represents the number of ecosystem patches with that combination of rank
vs.
EVCCEVCC33
Temperature vs. Temperature vs. PrecipitationPrecipitationfor each ecosystem for each ecosystem
patchpatch0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ecosystem rank TemperatureE
cosy
stem
ran
k P
reci
pita
tion
C
EVCCEVCC44 – Species sensitivity – Species sensitivity
C
EVCCEVCC44 – Results – Results
C
EVCCEVCC44 and the distribution of endemic species and the distribution of endemic species
Total VulnerabilitiesTotal Vulnerabilities
According to the quality and pertinence of According to the quality and pertinence of the data, the rank of importance:the data, the rank of importance:
C
Additional EVCC Additional EVCC ApplicationsApplications
C
EVCC and degree of human interventionEVCC and degree of human intervention
Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest.Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest.Blue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerabilityBlue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerability
Level of intervention Avg_EVCC1 Ave_EVCC2 Ave_EVCC3 Ave_EVCC4 Ave_EVCC
0none 5.0987 6.4086 4.6817 2.2658 18.4548
1Natural system with low intervention
2.1636 6.2727 8.2545 3.4727 20.1636
2Natural system with medium intervention
0.0000 5.0000 7.0000 3.5000 15.5000
3Natural system with high intervention in mountains
0.0000 5.7714 7.4286 4.0857 17.2857
4Natural system with high intervention in lowlands
2.7025 6.3223 8.5207 2.8678 20.4132
5Productive system with 10-50% natural veg
3.2333 6.3167 8.1333 3.2333 20.9167
6Productive system with <10% natural veg
4.5652 6.3696 9.1522 2.7391 22.8261
7Agroforestry 0.0000 6.3333 10.8333 3.1667 20.3333
8Shrimp / Salt production
4.6667 6.8333 7.3333 2.0000 20.8333
9Populated place 3.9048 6.7619 8.5714 3.1429 22.3810
C
Average EVCC inside protected areas = 17.63062
Average EVCC for all of Panama = 17.842452
Comparative Analysis: Protected Areas and EVCC for Ecosystem Type
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
7b. BSO
T pantanoso - dom
in. por palmas
21. Veg. costera de trans. sobre suelos m
arinos muy rec.
7c. BSO
T pantanoso - dom
in. por Cam
pnosperma
9. Manglares
6a. BSO
T aluvial ocasionalm
ente inundado
18a. Pant. de cyperáceas con abund. acum. de m
at. org.
7a. BSO
T pantanoso - dom
in. por dicotiledoneas
13b. Sist. prod. con veg. leñosa nat. o esp. signif. (<10
12. Poblados
6c. BSO
T aluvial ocasionalm
ente inundado - domin. por
1b. BSO
T latifoliado de tierras bajas - B
I
1a. BSO
T latifoliado de tierras bajas
1c. BSO
T latifoliado de tierras bajas - PI
17. Vegetación de páram
o
22. Albina con escasa vegetación
13a. Sist. prod. con veg. leñosa nat. o esp. signif. (10-50
15. Sist. prod. acuático-camaronera y salina
18b. Pantanos herbáceos salobres
10. B. deciduo por la sequia, latifoliado de tierras bajas
14. Plantaciones forestales
16. Sabanas arbol. de graminoides cortos inund.
20. Flujo de lava con escasa vegetación
8b. B. sem
ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas - bastante
23. Carrizales pant. y form
. sim. dom
in. por Typha
8c. B. sem
ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas - poco
8a. B. sem
ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas
6b. BSO
T aluvial ocasionalm
ente inundado - Med. I
3a. BSO
T latifoliado m
ontano
5. BSO
T latifoliado nuboso
2b. BSO
T latifoliado subm
ontano - BI
3b. BSO
T latifoliado m
ontano - BI
4a. BSO
T latifoliado altim
ontano
2a. BSO
T latifoliado subm
ontano
2c. BSO
T latifoliado subm
ontano - PI
3c. BSO
T latifoliado m
ontano - PI
11. Isla menores de 140 ha
4b. BSO
T latifoliado altim
ontano - Med. I
Ecosystem Type
Ave
rage
EV
CC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percentage Protected
Ave_EVCC
Percent Protected
EVCC and Protected AreasEVCC and Protected Areas
C
Distribution of Distribution of biodiversity and biodiversity and
endemic species in endemic species in PanamaPanama
a. Distribution of biodiversity
b. Endemic Species
Correlations between the Correlations between the EVCCs, distribution of EVCCs, distribution of
biodiversity and endemic biodiversity and endemic speciesspecies
# species # endemic species
C
Combining EVCC with the distribution of Combining EVCC with the distribution of biodiversity – in a mapbiodiversity – in a map
Conclusions Conclusions
The EVCC index has the potential to be a very useful tool for conservation of large-scale biodiversity;
It is important to include the uncertainties and to be flexible in the application of this index, always including and improving it with the latest scientific knowledge;
Climate change should be evaluated in conjunction with other factors that threaten ecosystems
What have we learned?What have we learned?
““Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a difficult word to say… in all languagesdifficult word to say… in all languages
GIS is a very powerful toolGIS is a very powerful tool
Communication is essentialCommunication is essential
The availability of data is necessary to The availability of data is necessary to increase the quality of environmental studiesincrease the quality of environmental studies
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
Our university and professorsOur university and professors CATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASACATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASA