latin america’s push to bring cuba back into the fold
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Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold. Professor Jorge Heine The Centre for International Governance Innovation www.cigionline.org. Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere November 16, 2009 5 th Floor Conference Room - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold
Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere
November 16, 20095th Floor Conference Room
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars9:15 AM – 12:30 PM
Professor Jorge HeineThe Centre for International Governance Innovation
www.cigionline.org
Cuba as an emblematic issue for Latin America and the
Caribbean
• Always been so, but especially so in the course of this decade• A post-Cold War environment• A more assertive region, with political stability and economic prosperity• Diversified diplomatic links and international markets• Cuban situation as a relic of an era of regional subordination
Latin American and Caribbean Embassies in
CubaLatin American and Caribbean Embassies in Cuba
Total -- 30 GuyanaAntigua and Barbuda HaitiArgentina HondurasBahamas JamaicaBarbados MexicoBelize NicaraguaBolivia PanamaBrazil ParaguayChile PeruColombia Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesCosta Rica Saint Kitts and NevisDominican Republic Saint LuciaDominica Trinidad and TobagoEcuador UruguayGranada VenezuelaGuatemala
Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign RelationsAvailable at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Embassies/Inicio.html
Cuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean
countriesCuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean Countries
Total -- 31 GuyanaAntigua and Barbuda HaitiArgentina HondurasBahamas JamaicaBarbados MexicoBelize NicaraguaBolivia PanamaBrazil ParaguayChile PeruColombia Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesDominican Republic Saint Kitts and NevisDominica Saint LuciaEcuador SalvadorGranada SurinameGuatemala Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign RelationsAvailable at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Embassies/Inicio.html
An issue which generates unanimous support
• The Latin American and Caribbean Summit in Costa de Saipe on 16-17 Dec. 08• The invitation to Cuba to join the Rio Group• The letter signed by all heads of state and government asking the US to end the embargo on Cuba• The follow-up with many state visits to Havana
Visits to Cuba in 2009So far this year Cuba has received the visits from:- President Evo Morales, Bolivia- President Fernando Lugo, Paraguay- President Martin Torrijos, Panama- President Rafael Correa, Ecuador- President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina- President Michelle Bachelet, Chile- President Álvaro Colom, Guatemala- President Leonel Fernández, Dominican Republic- President Manuel Zelaya, Honduras- President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela- President Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua- Prime Minister David Thompson, Barbados- and several other Caribbean leaders.
** President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, Brazil, visited in 2008
Source: “Paraguayan president, tenth Latin leader to visit Cuba this year”, MercoPress, 2 June 2009Available at, http://en.mercopress.com/2009/06/02/paraguayan-president-tenth-latam-leader-to-visit-cuba-this-year
Latin American Engagement with Cuba
The OAS resolution in the San Pedro Sula meeting in
June 2009
• A major breakthrough in lifting the 1962 resolution that had suspended Cuba
Cuban Imports: Latin America and Caribbean
(in US$million)
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Venezuela 1188.85 1883.66 2359.98 2847.03 3742.28
Brazil 145.149 270.051 377.582 356.236 579.533
Mexico 194.596 243.754 213.857 208.512 339.754
Netherlands Antilles 46.416 53.034 65.546 81.342 92.865
Argentina 100.497 106.525 105.379 110.791 92.805
Chile 51.691 46.841 48.739 70.724 85.732
Dominican Republic 19.105 13.003 17.165 40.151 66.749
Colombia 36.046 70.057 53.435 55.56 65.813
Uruguay 9.661 37.044 45.783 56.817 64.866
Trinidad and Tobago 23.112 26.407 32.638 40.503 46.241
Cuban Exports: Latin America and Caribbean
(in US$million)
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Guyana 38.172 43.614 53.904 66.894 76.371Belize 36.508 41.713 51.555 63.979 73.043Venezuela 105.27 85.427 30.805 49.378 62.374Dominican Republic 24.376 27.992 30.331 27.145 59.991Mexico 21.158 20.3 43.403 15.649 53.403Brazil 45.309 38.877 31.595 88.79 48.054Panama 0.408 14.34 19.768 23.709 22.947Colombia 6.151 5.014 3.701 7.842 17.941Haiti 8.073 9.224 11.401 14.148 16.152Costa Rica 7.419 6.912 8.542 10.601 12.103Honduras 3.405 3.89 4.808 5.967 6.812Jamaica 3.446 3.52 1.826 15.212 5.934Chile 0.72 1.577 1.361 2.636 4.356Argentina 1.372 1.595 2.383 2.743 2.354Bolivia 0.332 1.24 1.532 1.902 2.171Ecuador 0.246 0.266 0.635 1.747 1.796Guatemala 2.158 3.318 2.401 2.567 1.653Nicaragua 0.546 0.304 0.889 5.699 1.466The Bahamas 0.371 0.424 0.524 0.651 0.743
Mexico’s historical position on the Cuban question
• Basic principles of Mexican foreign policy• Not an issue of Left or Right, but on how to conduct foreign relations• Stance of Government of President Felipe Calderón falls squarely in that position
Brazil’s and Chile’s strong commitment to “bringing
Cuba back in”
• President Lula visited Cuba twice in 2008, and hosted Costa de Saipe Summit• President Bachelet was the first Chilean president to visit Cuba in 37 years (Feb 09)
Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s position on
Cuba
• Cubans’ sense of ownership of the Revolution• Need to respect that and not bet on stirring up further conflicts• Start talks between Washington and Havana, but without artificial deadlines or conditions
President Obama’s Latin American policy and the
Cuban question
• Despite a crowded agenda, some early signals of interest in the region• Lack of movement on trade• Mixed signals on Honduras• Policy toward Cuba as a litmus test