latest debates in climate change

SD3003Climate Change Policy, Science,

International Dimensions

Dr Gregory Borne

Responses to Climate Change Case Study2

1. Overview of Climate change Policy, International Dimensions

2. Scientific Evidence for Climate Change (Dr William Austin; Dr Rob Wilson)

3. Renewable Energy (Dr Paul Connor) (Assessment Noon Friday 28th October)

Fieldtrip Whitelee: 20th October

Introduction

1. The Basics - What is climate change, causes, impacts 2. Climate Science a paradigm shift, complexity and

uncertainty

3 Political Evolution

Tip of the (ever decreasing) Ice Berg

1. CAUSE: THE BASICS Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect

Emissions from human activities are increasing the concentration of atmospheric GHGs

Enhanced greenhouse effect occurs due to atmospheric buildup of GHGs that are released by human activities

The main sources of GHG emissions are: – Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas)– Mining activities– Industrial activities– Food production activities– Burning and exploiting forests– Land use change – Waste management

Sources of emissions

IMPACTS

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

Food

Water

Ecosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

2. Climate Science

What is Climate Change Wicked Problem

• According to Lord Stern (Stern Report)• Climate change is an externality with a difference:

– Global– Long-term– Uncertain– Potentially large and irreversible– “Climate change is the biggest market failure the world has ever seen”– This is what makes the development of effective and coordinated policies

based on the same system a challenge– Similarities between the discourses of climate change and sustainable

development

“Climate change science necessitates the ability to deal with uncertainty on several levels – not only uncertainty about the workings of the complex physical climate system, but also

uncertainty with respect to social and cultural processes that mediate

human response to changes within the system”

- Rebich and Gautier (2005, p. 355 )

CLIMATE SCIENCE

Uncertainty & Complexity in Climate Change Science

• Climate change is a ‘big’ issue• Understanding• Predicting• Acting

• The climate system is complex – ordered forcing + chaos

• Understanding of individual components may be fairly good but composite effect is uncertain

• Models can be constructed but have limitations • Complexity Uncertainty(See Hulme 2009)

Climate- Gate • Advocates and Sceptics • Results from uncertainty and

complexity of climate science, YES?

BUT ALSO• Results from vested interests and

power dynamics in society- who stands to win and who stands to lose?

• Funding of climate science? • 19th November 2009 UEA Russell Report - http://www.cce-

review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf

Three way revolution in Science towards Climate Change

Demands that are placed on scientific knowledge claims as they apply to investigations such as climate change:

• To be warranted, knowledge must emerge from a respectful process in which science's own internal social norms and practices are adhered to

• To be validated, knowledge must also be subject to the scrutiny of an extended community of citizens who have legitimate stakes in the significance of what is being claimed

• And to be empowered for use in public deliberation and policy-making, knowledge must be fully exposed to the proliferating new communication media by which such extended peer scrutiny takes place. (Hulme and Ravetz)

(Source: BBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)

3. Policy Evolution• Evolution of Climate Change Policy• United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change • COP/MOP• Kyoto Protocol• Bali Road Map• Copenhagen

The COP/MOP negotiations

1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012

Brundtland Report United nations European Directive

Concept of sustainable framework convention for an emission trading

Development on climate change (UNFCCC) scheme (ETS)

Phase 1 EU-ETS Phase 2 EU-ETS

Toronto conference Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol First commitment

Creation of IPCC Agreement entered into force of the Kyoto Protocol

1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012







1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012







1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012





1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012







Evolution of Climate Change Policy• 1988: UN sets up a scientific authority to vet the evidence on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC).• 1990: First IPCC report says levels of man-made greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere and predicts these

will cause global warming.• 1992: Rio Summit agrees to set up the UNFCCC, a vehicle for addressing climate change. The UNFCCC today has 194

parties.• 1997: UNFCCC members sign the Kyoto Protocol. Under its first commitment period, industrialised countries must cut

emissions of six greenhouse gases so they are 5.2 percent lower than 1990 levels by the end of 2012.• 2001: The Kyoto Protocol, still in framework form, is abandoned by the United States, then the world's biggest carbon

emitter. The pact is saved by the European Union (EU), which pilots an agreement on its rulebook and mechanisms, opening the way to ratification.

• 2005: Kyoto Protocol takes effect on February 16.• 2006: China overtakes the United States as the world's No. 1 carbon emitter.• 2007: 4th Assessment Report by the IPCC says evidence for global warming is "unequivocal" and forecasts warming of

1.8-4.0 degrees C (3.2-7.2 degrees F) by 2100 and an unquantifiable rise in sea levels. Nobel Peace Prize is awarded jointly to IPCC and former US vice president Al Gore UNFCCC parties agree a "Bali Road Map" for negotiating a post-2012 climate treaty.

• 2009: Copenhagen summit, intended to seal a post-2012 deal, nearly ends in disaster. To save face, a small group of leaders sets a broad goal of limiting warming to 2 C (3.6 F) and sketches financial provisions for poor countries. But it identifies no staging posts for reaching the target, nor requires emissions curbs to be binding.

• 2010: Climate change retreats as a political priority after the trauma of Copenhagen, economic problems in rich countries and attacks on the IPCC over flaws in the 4th Assessment Report.

• Nov 29-Dec 10: Annual conference of the UNFCCC in Cancun sets sights on incremental approach, with progress on climate finance, technology transfer and deforestation.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC

• Created as a result of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit 1992)

• Aim -Stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system

• Not Legally Binding • Calls for the creation of protocols• Established the Kyoto Protocol• Parties to the Conference (COP) have met annually

since 1995

Conference of the Parties (COP)Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP)

1995 – COP 1, The Berlin Mandate1996 – COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland1997 – COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change1998 – COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina1999 – COP 5, Bonn, Germany2000 – COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands2001 – COP 6 Bonn, Germany2001 – COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco2002 – COP 8, New Delhi, India2003 – COP 9, Milan, Italy2004 – COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina2005 – COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada2006 – COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya2007 – COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia2008 – COP 14/MOP 4, Poznań, Poland2009 – COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark2010 – COP 16/MOP 6, Cancún, Mexico2011 – COP 17/MOP 7, Durban, South Africa2012 – COP 18/MOP 8

Kyoto Protocol (COP3)

The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.

The Kyoto mechanisms Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national

measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.

• The Kyoto mechanisms are: • Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" • Clean development mechanism (CDM) • Joint implementation (JI).

Participation in the Kyoto ProtocolDecember 2010

Green = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty (Annex I & II countries in dark green)

Grey = Countries that have not yet decided[citation needed]

Brown = No intention to ratify at this stage

Annex I = Industrialised Countries and Countries in TransitionAnnex II = Developing Countries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed

Bali Road Map (2007-COP 13)At the 13th session of the United Nations Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) in Bali

in December 2007,developed and developing country governments from around the world adopted the “Bali Road Map” consisting of several decisions that reflected various tracks essential to reaching a secure climate future. The UNFCCC negotiation process was assigned to a new subsidiary body – the AWG-LCA - which focused on five building blocks:

• Shared vision• Adaptation• Mitigation• Technology transfer • Financing• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) was also

added to the negotiation agendaA similar subsidiary body had been established in 2005 upon the Kyoto Protocol’s

entry into force - the AWG-KP - to negotiate binding post-2012

Copenhagen (COP15/MOP5) OUTPUT – The Copenhagen Accord• Global warming: The Accord agrees that global temperature rise should stay below 2C (3.6F).

A tangible achievement but less ambitious than some would have hoped. • Reducing greenhouse gases: China and the United states Pledge to reduce carbon emissions.

BUT he treaty did not include any numerical targets for cutting pollution. • Measuring emissions reductions: China refused to accept international monitoring but

agreed countries must measure their own emissions and report to the outside world.• Finance to help developing nations adapt: Rich nations will provide 30bn dollars in total by

2012 and 100bn per annum by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to climate change but there is no detail on where this money will come from.

• Forests: The Accord will set up a new fund that pays poor nations not to chop down trees, but there is no timetable and little money in place.

• Technology transfer: The world agreed to share information on new technology that will help countries adapt to climate change and generate clean energy but again it is not clear when this will happen.

• Carbon markets: Markets are mentioned as a "cost effective way" to cut emissions, but companies will need much more concrete moves before they are confident to invest in trading carbon.

Controversial – Debates of the overall outputs of the meeting draws into the focus climate change policy based on the Kyoto Protocol

Cancun (COP16/MOP6) The Cancún Agreements• The package of decisions is seen by the UN as setting all governments more firmly

on the path towards a low-emissions future and supporting enhanced action on climate change. Highlights of the agreements include:

• Objective: agreement to peak emissions and overall 2 degree target to limit temperature rise;

• Emissions: bringing details of what developed and developing countries are doing to tackle climate change, promised in Copenhagen, into the UN system so they can be assessed;

• Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable (MRV): agreement on a system so we know how countries are living up to their promises to take action on emissions;

• Long-term finance: establishment of Green Climate Fund to help developing countries go low carbon and adapt to climate impacts;

• Deforestation: agreement on REDD+ framework to slow, halt and reverse destruction of trees and agree the rules for delivering it and for monitoring progress;

• Technology / Adaptation: set up the mechanisms to help developing countries access low carbon technology, and adapt to climate change.

Durban (COP 17/MOP7)28th November -9th December

•Global and local connections

•Occurring whilst you are taking this module

•Follow the debates

•Who are the main stakeholders?

•What are the main controversies?

•What are the outcomes?

Questioning Established NormsClimate policy

1. Essentially a problem of sharing costs– Actually about decisions on policy, investment, risks and returns

driven more by politics than by economics2. Led by the industrialised world with others following

– Actually fractured action with emerging economies accelerating3. Energy efficiency is an easy ‘free lunch’

– Good for the economy but not simple4. Carbon pricing to drive low carbon investment

– Actually has a much more complex role5. Technology will save us!

– Innovation is a result of good policy, hard to force efficiently and slow to emerge

Global and Local Connections

A human IssueEnvironmental/Social JusticeLocal Engagement Equality Power

Module will ExploreNational and Local ResponsesRenewable Energy –Whitelee Wind farmLocal Communities- Buckhaven

(Climate change protest outside the United States embassy in Jakarta in December 2009)

Questions to Think About

• Why is climate change such a complex phenomena?

• What is difference between climate science and traditional science?

• Why is climate change so controversial?• Climate change policy fundamentally exposes the

complex nature of knowledge in society. HOW? • What are the connections between global policy

and local issues?

Conclusion

• Climate Policy is Complex and Fractured• Many competing interests • Trade offs between, environmental, social and

economic imperatives • Exposes the flaws in the production of

knowledge and its multiple and contested uses in society

• Embodies the complexities of sustainable development

Readings/Resources Borne, G., (2010) A Framework for Sustainable Global Development and Effective Governance of risk, New York, Edward Mellen

PressHulme, M. (2009) Why we disagree about climate change , Understanding, Controversy, Inaction and opportunity, Cambridge,

Cambridge University PressStern, N. (2006). "Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). Executive Summary". HM Treasury,

London. http://www.webcitation.org/5nCeyEYJr Accessed 10/10/08 Foresight, International Dimensions of Climate Change (2011) Final Project Report., The Government Office for Science, London.

www.bis.gov.uk/.../foresight/.../international-dimensions/11-1042-international-dimensions-of-climate-change accessed 10/06/11

Rebich, S., Gautier, C. 2005. Concept mapping to reveal prior knowledge and conceptual change in a mock summit course on global climate change. Journal of Geoscience Education. 53(4). 355-365 (on moodle)

Climate Change Policy Time Line http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/carbonwatch/2010/05/timeline-the-road-to-climate-change-policy.html

International Law and Climate change Policy -http://untreaty.un.org/cod/avl/ha/ccc/ccc.htmlBBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)Copenhagen Accord - http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5262.phpKyoto Protocol - http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.phpClimate Change a Summary of Science

http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdfRussell Report - The Independent Emails Review Climate Change Email http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf

accessed 04/02/11

http://www.webcitation.org/5nCeyEYJr

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1

http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5262.php

http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdf

http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf