laszlo tunyogi dr.ggi conference october, 2013, rome 1 us. and eu free trade agreement economic nato...
TRANSCRIPT
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
1
US. AND EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
ECONOMIC NATO - OR A DREAM
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
2
OVERVIEW
• Antecedent
• Why FTA?
• Why U.S – EU?
• Hurdles to the deal
• What to do in GGI?
• Conclusions
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
3
STATE OF THE UNION13. 02. 2013.
• „Tonight, I’m announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union, because trade that is fair and free across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs.”
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
4
Barroso, on Wednesday 13 February
• “There have been in the past several attempts to launch this process of negotiations, but every time there were obstacles and resistance.”
(WTO, multilateral attempt: Deadend)
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
5
Trade-negotiation round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) 2001.-2012(?)
• Lower trade barriers around the world
• In 2008, talks have stalled over a divide on major issues,
• such as agriculture,
• industrial tariffs and
• non-tariff barriers,
• services, and
• trade remedies agricultural subsidies
• The July 2008 negotiations broke down after failing to reach a compromise on agricultural import rules
The most significant differences are between
European Union (EU), United States (USA),
Japan Brazil, China, India,
South Korea, South Africa.
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
6
Barroso to John Kerry22. 04. 2013.
„I believe we can get a mandate from our member states before summer, that we can keep the momentum and have this historic game changer agreement ready as soon as possible”
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
7
Rompuy, Obama, Barroso
„The progress achieved bilaterally on the liberalisation of trade and investment and the regulatory and non-tariff barrier issues will help to breathe new life into transatlantic trade, as well as help to develop global rules to reinforce the multilateral trade system”.
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
8
De Gucht (EU Trade comissioner) and Froman (US Deputy National Security Adviser)
„The future transatlantic agreement was not aimed against developing countries, and that it would give fresh momentum to the multilateral negotiations at the WTO. “Nothing that we are doing here is about ganging up on emerging economies. Our fervent hope is that what we're doing here will have a positive impact, including with countries like Brazil”,
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
9
Behind statements
• US:– Reindustrialiling the USA
• Return manufacturing activity from China– Computers, cars,
householdappliances, furnitures, clothing
– EU is more trasparent, prices, costs about the same, intellectual properties are respected.
• EU:• To avoid the risk of
becoming isolated if Americans focus on Pacific Ocean against China and Asia
• Reduce Asia-s overweight on EU market
• Convince Great Britain to stay in the EU (referendum until 2017)
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
10
OECD statistics (2011) EU (27) USA China India RussiaSouth Africa Brazil
Total population (million) 502 312 1.347 1.210 142,9 50,5 192,8
GDP output approach (trillion USD) 16.466 14.991 11.300 4.200
2.558 546 5.879
GDP growth rate (%) 1,5 1,8 10,4 9,1 4,3 3,5 7,5
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
11
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
12
Trade relation is the backbone of the world economy
• European Union and the Unites States account for about half of the world GDP (31,5 Bn =47%)
• one third of global trade flows • Each day goods and services of almost € 2 billion are
traded bilaterally • bring overall annual gains of 0.5% increase in GDP for
the EU and a 0.4% increase in GDP for the US by 2027. • €86 billion of added annual income to the EU economy
and €65 billion of added annual income for the US economy.
• BUT: BRICS account for more than 1/3 of the world GDP( 24,5 Bn = 37%)
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
13
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
14
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
15
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
16
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
17
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
18
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
19
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
20
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
21
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
22
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
23
OBSTACLES
• Time-schedules
• Fassion of pessimism in Europe
• Local interests
• Different regulations
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
24
Time schedule– negotiating mandate,
agreed in the 27 capitals (28 from 1 July with Croatia), is not easy
– current European Commission expires in autumn 2014
– On the American side, in two years' time there will be the mid-term elections,
• Without the ultimate approval of US Congress and the EU Parliament, there will be no agreement
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
25
Local Interests
• to France, GMOs (genetically modified organisms) are to be hived off from the negotiations
• Château, prosecco or champagne denominations for wines cannot be indicated on products across the Atlantic
• France also wants to exclude defence („we will not accept opening ours when the American defence market is closed”, (French Minister for Trade Nicole Bricq)
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
26
Elimination of Custom Duties
– tariff barriers are relatively low today (on average 5.2% in the EU, 3.5% to the United States) Eliminating existing tariffs would boost two-way trade by $120 billion within five years and and $180 billion the U.S. and E.U combined GDP.
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
27
Behind the border obstacles
• different safety or environmental and safety (test) standards for cars.– Light– Door-lock– Brakes– Steering– Seats– Seat belt– Electric window
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
28
Cultural and social issues
Several European professional film organizations (Eurocinéma, EuropaCinéma, EuropaDistribution, FIAD, SAA and UNIC) to ask European leaders not to include the audiovisual sector in the draft free trade agreement. (Commission staff said that this did not mean that the audiovisual sector would be totally excluded from the negotiations.)
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
29
chemicals, pharmaceuticals and medical devices
Consequences
• Unnecessary barriers– European blue cheese (not pasteurised)
• Unnecessary expenses– Separate production lines (car security
standards)
• Unnecessary duplication– European Chemicals Agency /US
requirements
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
31
SOME OPEN QUESTIONS
-How can we reduce legal risk, compliance complexity and regulatory uncertainty due to differences in the EU and the US regimes?
-Does mutual recognition require identical legal texts or should the objective and the outcome of the regulation be decisive?
-How can we facilitate the comprehensive and timely pooling of information?
-How can we achieve regulatory coherence in specific pieces of legislation
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
32
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
33
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
34
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
35
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
36
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
37
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
38
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
39
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
40
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
41
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
42
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
43
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
44
Opportunities for GGI members
• Euroatlantic info-bridge within GGI (see attached chart)• Harmonization standards and procedures
– Public procurement – chemicals, – automotive, – pharmaceuticals – medical devices
• Intellectual property to identify a number of specific issues regarding their
divergences.
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
45
Opportunities for GGI member’s clients
• You as GGI member can provide the latest and nonpublic information on EU developments – Drafts, green papers etc. Will be delivered via
mail upon request
• You as GGI member can transfer your client’s reflections to the EC
• Your voice in Europe – see next presentation
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
46
UN-EU-GGI Partnership
• To register at ECOSOC to have access to conferences, events, forums, decision makers in the UN family
• To be active at EU as stakeholder, to participate in open discussions on the subject
The progress of negotiations
• 8 July, 2013: 1st round in Washington
• 23-27 September, 2013: working group meetings
• 7-11 October, 2013: 2nd round
• December, 2013: 3rd round
• January, 2014: Stock-taking exercise with EU Commissioner Karel de Gucht and US Trade representative, Michael B. Froman
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
47
Other negotiations due to TTIP
• Japan: resolve to accelerate free trade negotiations (next meetings: end of October, beginning of 2014)
• Singapore: Free trade agreement initialled, to be approved by political authorities (opportunities in services sector and PP)
• WTO-Doha: negotiations relaunched
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
48
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
49
Laszlo Tunyogi Dr. GGI CONFERENCE October, 2013, ROME
50
7. Want more about…?• http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/publicprocurement/
index_en.htm• http://search.wto.org/search?
q=GPA&site=English_website&client=english_frontend&proxystylesheet=english_frontend&output=xml_no_dtd&numgm=5&proxyreload=1&ie=ISO-8859-1&oe=ISO-8859-1
• http://www.planpublicprocurement.org/main/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=603:call-for-paper-proposals-5th-international-public-procurement-conference&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50
THANKS!Dr. Laszlo [email protected]+41 76 278 81 32+36 30 950 60 11