LAPS WORKSHOP SUMMARY

Oct. 25-27 2010, ESRL, Boulder, CO

LAPS SUMMARY

• User base - 150+ users– NWS – WFOs via AWIPS2– Other US agencies – DHS, FAA, DoD, NASA– Private sector – Renewable Energy, weather forecasting– Internationally – Weather forecast agencies in Europe and Asia

• Primary application areas– Situational awareness

• Convective initiation, aviation, winter weather– Warn-On-Forecasting

• Severe weather, fire weather, hydrometeorology

• Unique combination of features– Consistency with observations– Fine scales– Very rapid update– High portability– Ease of use

WORKSHOP RECOMMENDATIONS

• Continue development and support of LAPS– To serve enterprise needs

• Maintain & further enhance unique features of LAPS– Fine scales, very rapid updates, high portability,

ease of use

WORKSHOP LOGISTICS• Organized by Forecast Applications Branch (FAB) of GSD

• Held 25-27 Oct 2010 at GSD/ESRL/OAR/NOAA in Boulder

• 35 participants, including 6 via telecon– OAR – GSD, NSSL– NWS – Southern & Central Regions, Training Center– NESDIS– Academia – NCAR, CIRA– International – Finland, Spain, China– Private Sector – Vaisala, WDT, Precision Winds, Radiometrics

• 30 presentations, including 5 posters

• 2 sessions of Working Group discussions on recommendations

AREAS OF DISCUSSION

• Role of LAPS in NOAA & weather enterprise

• User requests

• Scientific opportunities / needs

• Data

• Software

• Collaboration

ROLE OF LAPS IN NOAA & ENTERPRISE• Purpose – NWP system for

– Situational awareness• Nowcasting• Verification

– Warn-On-Forecasting• For severe weather, convective initiation, aviation, fire weather,

hydrometeorology, etc

• Critical qualities– Consistency with observations– Fine scales to resolve severe weather phenomena– Very frequent update– Portability– Ease of use

• Users – 150+ users– NWS WFOs – AWIPS2

• Critical for WFO control of analysis (incl QC) & work flow– Other US agencies, private sector – 10+ groups– International applications – 6+ countries / weather services

USER REQUESTS• Quality of analyses & forecasts

– Number of problems highlighted• Noise in analysis, spin-up in forecast, need for better QC, etc• Must set priorities

– Some solutions offered by partners

• Portability– AWIPS2 & other platforms

• Efficiency– Must run in timely manner

• Ease of use– Must remain easy to set up– User interface must remain simple

SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES / NEEDS• 3/4Dvar development – Space-Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS)

– Better use of observational data– Cross-variable background error covariances– Physical balances consistent with observations

• Errors in observations– QC improvements– Observational and representativeness errors

• Choice of background field– Forecast from previous LAPS analysis (cycled DA)

• Desired but problems with errors on fine scales due to – Chaotic error growth and boundary effects

• Role of dynamical downscaling

• Initialization of NWP forecasts– Analysis must be consistent with NWP models used

• Consistency with eg microphysical and land surface model compenents

• Estimation of uncertainty in analysis and forecasts– Ensemble approach– Coupled with 3/4Dvar

• Ensemble-based covariances

DATA NEEDS• “Static” data - Use standard procedures for

access – – Fine resolution terrain, land surface, etc– E.g., Topograbber

• Observational data – Include new types• Dual polarization etc radar, lidar, satellite, etc

• Background forecast– Test new approaches

• Cycled forecasts from LAPS analysis• ECMWF 16 km global forecast

SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS• LAPS / WRF Portal

– Develop user friendly GUI for• Set-up, data access, QC, running & monitoring LAPS &

ensuing WRF forecast– Many elements exist

• WRF Portal, LAPS domain wizard, NNEW, etc– Great potential benefits – Incident meteorology

• Assimilate fire weather related observations in field

• Efficiency– Emphasis on parallelization

• Conform with coding etc standards– How to interface with GIS

• Documentation• Protocol for external contributions to LAPS

– Korea, Finland, Spain, Taiwan, private sector, etc

LAPS & THE COMMUNITY• Recommend DTC include LAPS in analysis and

forecast evaluation / verification work• Recommend HWT test use of LAPS for

– Situational awareness / nowcasting– Warn-On-Forecasting

• Training– NWS developing training package for

• Set-up, running of LAPS– Need mandate / funding for package on use of LAPS

• Products, examples, good practices, etc

• Consistency of LAPS with other NWP systems– Use/integrate community supported tools/formats (bufr,

geogen, GIS, etc)– Transfer DA methods tested successfully on fine scales

into NCEP operations

FOLLOW-UP• Do we need regular LAPS User Workshops?

– Biannual? What to change, include, etc?

• Publicize outcome of workshop & LAPS?– A BAMS meeting summary?

• OR

– Several papers (special issue) for a journal (BAMS)?

• Workshop summary• LAPS overview• NWS survey• Description how LAPS used at WFOs• Contributed papers by other users?

LOCAL ANALYSIS & PREDICTION SYSTEM (LAPS):A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE

Zoltan Toth

Global Systems Division, ESRL/OAR/NOAA

Acknowledgements:

Steve Koch, John McGinley, members of Forecast Applications Branch

LAPS Workshop, Oct. 25-27,Boulder, CO

SUMMARY OF LAPS ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• First comprehensive cloud initialization scheme– Achieved in early 1990s

• Very efficient, very rapid update, fine scale– 5-15 mins cycles, 1 km resolution

• Highly portable analysis system– Pre-WRF achievement– Runs on variety of platforms

• LAPS or its adaptations operational at– 15+ agencies

• Including 6 weather services worldwide

• Plethora of scientific achievements– Large number of publications worldwide

Cloud / Reflectivity / Precip Type (1km analysis)

DIA

Obstructions to visibility along approach paths

2hr HOT FcstAnalysis 2hr NO-HOT Fcst

850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity

16 June 2002

http://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/fabOAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Mature Squall Line Animation

Initialized with LAPS Initialized with NAM

LAPS TEAM• Data assimilation

– Steve Albers, Yuanfu Xie• Satellite and other observations

– Dan Birkenheuer, Seth Gutman, Kirk Holub, Tomoko Koyama• Physical processes

– Paul Schultz• Ensemble forecasting

– Isidora Jankov• Evaluation and verification

– Ed Tollerud, Ed Szoke• Software engineering

– Linda Wharton, Paul McCaslin• Technical support

– Adrienne Rose, Joanne Krumel, Stanislav Stoichev• Former colleagues

– John McGinley, Huiling Yuan, Brad Beechler, Brent Shaw, etc• Long list of collaborators, visitors, etc

SCIENTIFIC SOUNDNESS

• Solid foundation for traditional LAPS analysis

• Weak overall structure– Not 3- or 4-Dvar arrangement

• Room for significant improvement– New 3Dvar scheme is being developed

• Traditional “hot-start” rebuilt using variational principles

– Space-Time Multi-scale Analysis System (STMAS)• More information extracted from data• More balanced initial fields• Already used by US & international agencies!

USE IN OPERATIONS• Quality

– The good and the bad – need honest feedback

• Ease of use– AWIPS and elsewhere

• Choice of domain and execution – Information Technology (IT) issue– Local / Regional

• NWS – Local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and Eastern Region– Central

• Korean Meteorological Agency• Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan)• Finnish Meteorological Institute

• Link with other tools– MADIS, NNEW, WRF, etc

LAPS IN NOAA & WEATHER ENTERPRISE• Same methodology pioneered for fine scale local applications

– Can be tested & transitioned to CONUS, national, or global scales– Scientifically, choice of execution (IT issue) does not matter

• Potential use in NCEP operations (Rapid Refresh, etc)– Ideally, same/similar algorithms should be considered for various scales– Methods tested successfully on fine scale may find their way into next

generation national / global systems

• What is needed for successful technology transfer to NCEP Central Operations?– Local execution may require specific information technology solutions– Fine scale solutions may warrant deviations from GSI approach on

specific issues– Build/retain consistency with system operational at NCEP (GSI) in all

other areas– Very challenging task

NEW DIRECTIONS• Data assimilation

– 3- and 4-Dvar• Collaboration with WRF and DTC DA activities

– Global LAPS• Encouraging results re tropical and warm season convective systems

• Ensemble forecasting– Major expansion into probabilistic forecasting– Coupled Data assimilation / ensemble forecasting system

• Ensemble-based covariances for 3-4-Dvar

• Finer resolution applications– Convective initiation

• Warn-On-Forecast– Fire weather & Renewable Energy

• 100s or 10s of meters resolution

• Field deployment– Support incident meteorology– Real time assimilation of field observations

• Statistical post-processing – To remove systematic errors from ensemble

WORKSHOP EXPECTATIONS

Provide advice and feedback to facilitate

• Adjustments / corrections in approach

• Making system more useful for customers

• New initiatives to better serve community

Thank you all for coming!

BACKGROUND