lange, marcus - littoral 2010 - a take on the risk associated with offshore wind farming
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
1/23
Vestas Central Europe
A new Future of the Sea? A Take on theRisk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
Marcus Lange1, Kira Gee2, Andreas Kannen2 &
Benjamin Burkhard3
1 LOICZ IPO at GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,2 GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,3 Ecology Centre at Kiel University, Germany
Zukunft Kste Coastal Futures
Zukunft Kste Coastal Futures
Ecology Centre at Kiel University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
2/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Drivers of change
Reduction of CO2emissions,
Generation of additionalemployment.
DPA
Main pillar of Offshore Wind
future renewable = > Farming
energy supply
National Action Plan forRenewables (Sept 09)
Target:
Continous increase in share ofrenewable energies inelectricity consumption (30 %by 2030).
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
3/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Drivers of change
Offshore Wind Farming - Capacity
Source: Burkhard2009
25.564 MW(4,5 MW pro Anlage)
Construction
Phase Potential Capacity
2010 2030 20.000 25.000 MW
Source: Germannational strategyfortheuseof
offshore windpower (2002; 2009)
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
4/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Marine polyculture + Offshore Wind Energy
- Offshore Wind Farming
- Fishery
- Marine Protected Areas
- Tourism
- Oil Extraction
- Coastal & Island Defense
- Shipping
and many more
Source: BSHCONTIS InformationSystem (2010), www.bsh.de
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
5/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
GEWIND
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
6/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
WWF-Canon/MichelGunther
GEWIND
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
7/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
GEWIND
MCA, GB
GEWIND
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
8/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
BildJournal 19.12.2003
GEWIND
Crazy! Giant wind mills in
front of the Baltic coast
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
9/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
Lange
GEWIND
Crazy Giant wind mills
in front of the Baltic coast
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
10/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea
Lange Lange
GEWIND
Crazy Giant wind mills
in front of the Baltic coast
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
11/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Uncertainty factors of risk analysis
Coastal and
Marine system
Major unknowns and uncertainties are shaped by dynamics of
the coastal and marine system that are difficult or not to predict;
Lack of data No realtime data for the impacts of large scale offshore
windfarms exist (because only one farm in the German North
Sea is in operation so far);
Politics and
Economy
The expansion of developments depends on the political will and
investor support;
Individualdimension
Individual perceptions of risk shape the level of acceptance;Dynamics and consequences of human intervention can be
interpreted differently.
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
12/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
The Coastal Futures approach a view of the whole
In the sea
Above sea
On land
Kannen, Lange & Burkhard
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
13/23
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
14/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Distribution of divers in the German North Sea
Garthe & Mendel (2010)
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
15/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Human activities and distribution of divers
Affected individuals
Cumulative: 4.168 ind.
OWF: 1.450 ind.
Shipping traffic: 2.718 ind.
National population *
National 18.500 ind.
Average:
*Source: Gartheetal. (2007);
Garthe & Mendel (2010)
1 = sehr dafr 2 = eher dafr 3 = keine Meinung 4 = eher dagegen 5 =
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
16/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Perceived risks
1 = sehr dafr, 2 = eher dafr, 3 = keine Meinung, 4 = eher dagegen, 5 =
dagegen
15%
30%
11%
26%
18%
44 %
against
in favour
(with confinements)
in favour
neutral /
nopositionStatements:
Offshore wind farms upsetnatureandanimals, nevermindthevisual
impacts.
Disappearanceofthelastremainingporpoises, pollution, evenmoredeadbirds, dangerof shippingaccidents andoil spills.
Results of a surveyof local residents(West Coast)
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
17/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Perceived risks and benefits
Category
Frequency
(% of allarguments)
Main arguments against offshore wind
Aesthetics oflandscapeand seascape 21.8
Natureconservation 15.1
Emotional arguments 7.6Shippingsafety 3.6
Main arguments in favourof offshore wind
regenerative/clean formofenergygeneration 23.3
Employmentintheregion 5.2
Climatechange 0.2Main unertainties with respect to offshore wind (undecided respondents)
Technological feasibility 4.6
Economic feasibility 4.4
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
18/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UKLITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Person
Years(
2000)
Sc
o
Scenrio 'Little Implementation' 'Modest Implementation' ' igh Implementation
Cumulated employment effects of offshore wind energy in the 'West Coast' region of S until 2030
assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value chain
I
v
m
w
y O& w
y I
com
m l pl
w
Co
o
l
l
c c y
pl c
I
com
m l pl
co
v.
l
c c y Co
mp o
c
I
com
m l pl
co
mp o
N
c
R o l co om c c
2.000 MWinstalled Offshore Wind
Power capacity
Source: Hohmeyer (2010)
15. 000 MW
25. 000 MW
Cumulated employment effects of offshore wind energy in the West Coast region of Germany
until 2030 assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value chain.
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
19/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Regional economic effects
Just anchoring parts of the value chain in the region can lead to positive
employment effects;
The greatest risk from an economic perspective for the West Coast is to not
make use of the opportunity presented by offshore wind;
Targeted oriented policy (local, regional)
is required to reduce uncertainties for
investors, as well as decidedness in
planning to reduce delays.
REpowerSystems
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
20/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Comprehensive risk analysis
as an essential task for science
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
21/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Conclusions
We came to the conclusion that we need to apply a systemic approach to assess thecomplex risks associated with Offshore Wind Farming.
Licensing of offshore wind parks should therefore be made on the basis of a multi-
perspective analysis of risk based on an assumption of all planed wind farm projects.
A comprehensive risk analysis helps to overcome problems arising from uncertainties
in many parts of the Social-ecological coastal system - Offshore Wind Power.
If we want to increase acceptance of Offshore Wind Farming, we need to reduce
personal uncertainties of local residents (by increasing the knowledge base) but also
take seriously the concerns and values of stakeholders.
The Coastal Futures approach has the potential to strengthen the information base for
decision making in the context of ICZM and Marine Spatial Planning.
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
22/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Thanks for your Attention !
REpower Systems AG
Synthesis Report
Lange, M., Burkhard, B., Garthe, S., Gee, K.,
Kannen, A., Lenhart, H. & Windhorst, W.
(2010):
Analyzing Coastal and Marine Changes:
Offshore Wind Farming as a Case Study.
Zukunft Kste - Coastal Futures Synthesis
Report. LOICZ Research & Studies No. 36.
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, 212 pp.
www.loicz.org
-
8/8/2019 Lange, Marcus - LITTORAL 2010 - A take on the risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
23/23
September 21st 23rd , 2010, London, UK
LITTORAL 2010Ecology Cantre at KielUniversity FTZ Westcoast Buesum
Thanks for your Attention !
www.coastal-futures.org
REpower Systems AG