Photo: INBAR China

Landscape Approaches to Future Forest and Tree Resources Management

IUFRO-FORNESSA Meeting, Nairobi, June 2012

Tony Simons, Director General, ICRAF

With contributions from:Meine van Noordwijk, Peter Minang, Valentina Robiglio,

Keith Shepherd, Anja Gassner and Ravi Prabhu

Abdou Salam OuedraogoAbdou Salam Ouedraogo1957 1957 -- 20002000

1. What is a landscape?

2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees

3. What problems are we tackling?

4. Landscape Approaches

Landscape Approaches with Forest and Trees

Landscape comprises the visible features of an area of land, including:

• physical elements of landforms such as mountains, water bodies, vegetation

• human elements including different forms of land use, buildings and structures, and

• transitory elements such as lighting and weather conditions.

(from Wikipedia, 2012)

1. What is a Landscape?

1. What is a Landscape? (cont.)

5th Century - landscaef (England) & landscahft (Germany)- small administrative units of land (natural and human made)

16th Century - Dutch painter’s term (Bruegel)- bird’s eye viewpoint of Flemish countryside

1930s - domain of geography, subset of region (Hartshorne)

1970s - transition of natural to human landscapes- Meinig combined the physical and human perceptions

"landscapes are not only what lies before our eyes but what lies within our heads."

1. Recent political exposure

Rio - 20 (Stockholm , Earth Summit, 1972)

Rio (Rio de Janiero, UNCED, 1992)

MDGs (New York, UN General Assembly, 2000)

Rio +10 (Johannesburg, WSSD, 2002)

Rio +20 (Rio de Janiero, UNCSD, 2012)

0

(1)

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0

0

Agriculture - 6 mentions

Forest - 35 mentions

Land Manag/Degrad - 12 mentions

Take concrete steps to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies

Restore 150 million ha of deforested and degraded lands by 2020

Secure water supply by protect biod, ecosystems and water sources

Rio Dialogues

10,000 ideas from civil society

Clustered to top 100 actions

1.3 million voted on-line

66.1%

34.6%

34.2%

(Landscape)

(Close your eyes)

Integrate SegregateAgroforests

Fields, Forests & Parks

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2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees

Choosing a forest definition

for the Clean Development MechanismFORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING PAPER 4 – 2006

http://www.fao.org/forestry/media/11280/1/0/

For the CDM, developing countries must choose the parameter values from the ranges: “Forest” is a minimum area of land of 0.05-1.0 hectares with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of more than 10-30 per cent with trees with the potential to reach a minimum height of 2-5 meters at maturity in situ.

% tree crown cover

Opportunity for

incremental carbon(t/ha)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

50

40

30

20

10

The relationship between tree crown cover and abilityto add extra carbon looks something like this.

% crown cover

Opportunity for

incremental carbon(t/ha)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

50

40

30

20

10

Lower and upper limits for CDM A/R

National governments can set theirforest definition as tree cover minimum threshold between 10% and 30%

% crown cover

Opportunity for

incremental carbon(t/ha)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

50

40

30

20

10

Avoided deforestation at 30%

Aff/Reforestationat 30%

ARat

10%

Avoided deforestation at 10%

REDD

CDM A/R

6700 km2 = 2.8% of land area 36,000 km2 = 14.9% of land area

10% 20%

30%

69,300 km2 = 28.6% of land area

Implications of forest definition 1-A/R Uganda

Zomer et al. 2008

Land suitable for CDM Afforestation according to tree canopy cover as forest definition

% increase from 10-30%

Difference(hectares)

Cote d’Ivoire 1583% 7.7 million

Ghana 1063% 6.8 million

Nigeria 446% 19.5 million

….are included under forest, as are areas normally forming part of the forest area which are temporarily

unstocked as a result of human intervention such as harvesting or

natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest;

[FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1]

Any signs of deforestation?

Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,

Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,

The foresters’ view of the world

The agroforestry view of the world

The integrated view of the world

Global tree cover inside and outside forest, according to the Global Land Cover 2000 dataset, the FAO spatial data on farms versus forest, and the analysis by Zomer et al. (2009)

Guiding Paradigms

31

Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)

Forest Use Class % area Loss during 2000-2005

t C ha-1 yr-1 % yr-1 % total emissions

Protected Forest 26.7% 2.01 0.90% 20%

Production Forest 31.8% 3.28 1.80% 39%

Convertible 9.6% 3.07 1.87% 11%

“Non-forest” 31.9% 2.57 3.33% 30%

TOTAL 2.69 1.70

Indonesia’s forest loss by land-use category

(Source http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/ALLREDDI)

Arthropods64.5%

Plants - 14.3%

Vertebrates - 2.7%

Algae - 2.4%Fungi - 4.2%Nematodes - 0.9%

Protozoans - 2.4%

Molluscs - 4.2%

Viruses - 0.3% Bacteria - 0.2%Other invert - 3.9%

Source: I. Koziell (2001) Diversity not Adversity, IIED, 58pp

Number of described species for major groups of organisms as proportions of global total

25% are woody species

A. Trees for Products

B. Trees for Services

fruit firewood medicine income sawnwood fodder

soilfertility

carbon sequestration

soilerosion

watershedprotection

shade biodiversity

Tree Products and Tree Services

• Increased production of timber and fuelwood on-farm and in rotational wood-lots can potentially reduce emissions from forest degradation especially in instances of restricted access to forests or limited supply in “open access” forests.

Traditional Medicine in Sub-Saharan Africa80% of people use traditional medicine

3. What problems are we tackling?

Los Angeles city commuters

Cairo City populace

Developing countriesrural poor/hungry

Differentiated problems? or interlinked global challenges?

0 1 10 100 1000

Log Scale Time (years)

Temporal ScaleEcosystem processes

Lifespan timber tree

Lifespan atmosph CO2

Human lifespan

Time to project impact

Project duration

Cropping season

Political Term

Adjudicated Land

Adjudicated under the Land Adjudication Act CAP 284 1968, intensive smallholder cultivation with clear freehold title

Unadjudicated Land

Unadjudicated land, no firm legal title

Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts Unadjud Freehold Tenure

Effect Net returns to land ($ ha-1 y-1) $126 $288 2.28 Woody crops, woodlots etc (ha km-2) 5.4 25.6 4.7 Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5 Social cost from embedding -$40 $30 $70 Social "tax" -32% +10%

(Norton-Griffiths et al., 2012)

Redirecting development pathways towards environmental integrity

Positive incentives are needed to reward rural poor for the environmental services they can/do provide

World Bank (2012) World Bank, Washington, 118p.

The amount of support that govtswill need to provide by the year 2030 to enable farmers to implement SLM practices are projected at:

US $20 billion in Africa, US $41 billion in Latin America, US $131 billion in Asia.

Basic problemThere is a lack of coherent and rigorous sampling and assessment frameworks that enable comparison of data (i.e. meta-studies) across a wide range of environmental conditions ... and scales

Quantification and systematic monitoring are essential to understand and manage trade-offs among ecosystem services and know where are the tipping points

Land Health Surveillance

Towards evidence-based decision makingfor sustainable agricultural intensification

Concepts, methods, technology, protocols, & tools to help apply the type of scientific rigour that exists in public health surveillance to measurement and management of agro-ecosystem health at multiple scales

Vagen

Land Health - the capacity of land to sustain delivery of essential ecosystem services (the benefits people obtain from ecosystems)

Surveillance scienceLand health metrics

Consistent field protocol

Soil spectroscopyCoupling with remote sensingPrevalence, Risk factors, Digital mapping

Sentinel sites Randomized sampling schemes

Ethiopia Soil Information System

EthioSIS is adopting a new, innovative technological approach that allows for quick, high-resolution coverage of the country, combining remote sensing data and ground tests

Mapping soil carbon stocks in landscapes

Soil organic carbon stocks within a 10 x 10 km sentinel site in western Kenya mapped by statistical modelling of ground data to satellite spectral bands

The effect of cloud is masked as no data 56

UNEP Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement tools

4. Landscape approaches

C55H72O5N4Mg

Biomolecules in Green Development

Chlorophyll

LANDSCAPE CONCEPT AND LANDSCAPE APPROACH

landscapes as spatially heterogeneous geographic areas characterized by diverse interacting patches or ecosystemsLandscape approach is necessary to deal at the same time with production, biodiversity, ecosystem services and functions, livelihoods strategies, policy and institutions across scales. The landscape approach is particularly valuable to create an understanding in the complex (competing) interrelationships between resource use and users across scales.

Livelihoods strategies

Production

Ecosystem services Biodiversity

Carbon sink and sequestration

Institutions

policy System resilience

HUMAN LANDSCAPES

Land units as non-interacting aggregates

Economic or social synergies not accommodated

Social processes across land uses ignored or aggregated

Ghazoul, ISPC Meeting, 2011)

REDD+

plus what?

People?Water?Biodiversity?Landscape?

The Challenges of REDD1. Market alone won’t solve deforestation problem2. Carbon only part of picture (water, habitat, biodiversity, services) 3. MRV needs to be independent of government4. Handling cross-sectoral/ministerial issues5. Controversy over rights to pollute, displacement of emissions6. Opportunism of carbon cowboys7. Definition and inclusion problems of tree, forest8. Asynchronous forest laws, agrarian reform, land tenure9. Land-use/land-cover conundrum10. Bundling protection forest, production forest, conversion forest, (non-forest)11. REDD is only partial accounting12. Low capacity/compliance of fpic, indigenous rights, social safeguards13. Baselines versus reference levels14. Emissions embedded in trade15. Stock:emission rate ratios are lowering (time pressure to act)16. All actors believe most finance should go to them

MAIN ACTORS % Finance

National Governments 90%

Brokers/Investors 90%

MRV, compliance 90%

Implementers, Managers, NGOs 90%

Stewards, communities 90%

TOTAL 450%

ACTORS and FINANCING

MAIN ACTORS % Finance

National Governments 25%

Brokers/Investors 15%

MRV, compliance 15%

Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20%

Stewards, communities 25%

TOTAL 100%

ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)

MAIN ACTORS % Finance Source of Finance

National Governments 25% ODA

Brokers/Investors 15% Market

MRV, compliance 15% Market

Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20% Market

Stewards, communities 25% ODA

TOTAL 100%

ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)

- 50:50 financed by market and ODA - MRV independent of Govt- Govt and communities less vulnerable- Govts need to function for market to trust them

• Agroforestry, Afforestation and Reforestation can be part of REDD+ depending on the definition of forest in a given country

Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x

37%

% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.)

68%58% 30%

40%41% 46% 22%

42%

1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river

basin.

Approximately a third comes from ‘local’

sources

Global circulation patterns of humidity in the atmosphere suggsts a strong link between West Africfan rainfall and the recycling of rain-fall back to the atmosphere in East Africa & Nile basin; this suggests very different geopolitics to carbon-based global climate negotiations

van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐ Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,

Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG, 2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746

Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling

Sahel

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Rain

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Ring w idthRain season prec.

Year Three ‘drought’ indicators: Ringwidth C12/C13 carbon isotope ratiops indicative of stomatal closure O16/O18 oxygen isotope ratios indicative of stomatal closure + ocean/terrestrial origin of rainfall

Enhanced EL means increased precipitation

Empirical data: research by Aster Gebrekirstos c.s. showed intra-annual variation in O16/O18 ratio in growth rings in the Sa-hel, indicative of ‘short cycle’ rain in 2nd partof growing sea-son

Tree Species Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Avocado

Citrus

Parinari curatellifolia

Mangoes

Uapaca kirkiana

Strychnos cocculoides

Syzygium cordatum

Annona seneghalesis

Azanza garckeana

Flacourtia indica

Vangueria infausta

Vitex doniana

Adansonia digitata

Ziziphus mauritiana

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100N

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Zambia

MalawiHungry/cropping

season

Harvest/off-

season

New Cultivar Development (Uapaca kirkiana)

Earlier fruiting, bigger fruits, heavy fruit loads, smaller trees and uniform quality

A superior cultivar (fruited after 4 yrs.)

Variations

Palopo Cocoa Centre, Sulawesi

Case Study: Cocoa Rehabilitation

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Pod Number

Trunk Circumference

Pod Number & Wet Bean Weight

Witches’ Broom Resistance

Pod Weight

Frosty Pod Resistance & Wet Bean Weight

Bean Length

Jorquette Height

Frosty Pod Resistance

Bean Length, Seed Weight,Ovule Number, & Trunk Circumference

Black Pod

Bean Weight, Bean Thickness, Pod Weight & Pod Length

~40 identified QTLsin cacao

- Resolution 30m x 30m- Based on 280 (56 x 5) ground truthed cocoa locations- Maximum likelihood classifier spectral landcover reflectance probability using ENVI

Project Project Vision for ChangeVision for Change (V4C)(V4C)

First flowers after 5 months First pod at 9 months

Capacity building and mobilisation: State of our national partners HQ in Abidjan, August 2011

A growing on-farm domestic timber sector in Cameroon (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Kenya????)…

81

Once SSL production is included the overall value of national timber production doubles!

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2000 2005 2010

Mill

ions

m3

Official productionSSL informal production

Robiglio, V. et al. 2011. Submitted to Small Scale Forestry .

eastern

western

Fort Tenan

FFAOFAOFFAOFAO

Components:Components:1. Global Review 2. International Forum (March 12-16, 2012)3. Action and Advocacy

To strengthen CGIAR’s impact; in the past our research activities were not usually based on a common set of research instruments, and long term horizon

Initial selection of 6 landscapes in Africa, Latin America, South East Asia

Selection driven by CRP6 research hypothesis

Cross regional comparison Standard network protocols & data sharing

policies Long term presence Platform for co-locating research

Sentinel landscapes –CGIAR long-term research network under CRP6