land use scenarios status. encompass 2040 scenarios scenario 1: continues similar development...
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Land Use Scenarios Status
Encompass 2040 Scenarios• Scenario 1: • Continues similar development
patterns of the past with no new zoning initiatives
• Scenario 2:• Encourages infill and downtown
development in each community
• Scenario 3:• Outward expansion with clustered,
mixed-use development
1
2
3
Scenarios
Present
Allocation
Land Suitability Analysis*
Build-Out Analysis
Constraint Analysis
*Land Suitability Analysis Model only used for Scenario 2 and Scenario 3
Constraint Analysis
• Areas where development cannot occur• Not a stand-alone tool• Determines land available for
development• Used in Build-Out Analysis
Component Scenario 1
Floodways Parks Road Rights-of-Way Wildlife Management Areas
Prime Farmland*
Constraint Analysis
Development Constraints
Rights-of-way Protected areas Parks Water bodies
Floodways Open space Wetlands Farmland*
Areas not available for development
Constrained Area Map
Areas available for development
Build-Out Analysis
Legend
Analysis Tool Model Input Data Reference MapModel Output Next Model
Comparing CommunityViz to GAM
• Growth Allocation Model (GAM) • Used by ACOG since 1985• Allocates future growth based on attraction
and capacity• Trend Continued
• CommunityViz• More detailed analysis• Allows for multiple growth scenarios
• Proximity analysis• Assessment of scenarios
• GAM as calibration for CommunityViz
Development Capacity
• GAM• Calculation• Acreage available for future Land
Use
• CommunityViz• Build-Out Analysis• Uses available land determined in
Constraint Analysis• Numeric and Spatial • 8-10 hours to run
Build-Out Analysis
Development Characteristics
Developable areas
Base data Max density
per city
Community & Place Types
Form & Pattern Table
Site Efficiency Factor
Areas of potential future development
Potential Development Map
Allocation
Legend
Analysis Tool Model Input Data Model AssumptionsModel Output Reference Map Next Model
Attractiveness
• GAM• Factors influencing development• Rates for each• Weighted based on correlation
• CommunityViz• Land Suitability Analysis• Rates (same as for GAM)• Variable weight assumptions
Component Scenario 1
Schools Current Trends Downtowns Redevelopment Areas Transit Oriented Developments (TODs)
Utilizes Existing Service Area Boundary
Land Suitability Analysis
Attraction Factors
Current trend areas
Schools Income Density
Redevelopment areas
TODs Service area
boundaries
Assign weights to attraction factors
Calculate attraction score
Land Suitability Map
Allocation
Legend
Analysis Tool Model Input Data Dynamic CalculationModel Assumption Reference Map Next Model
GAM CommunityViz
Growth Allocation
• GAM• Future development capacity • Weighted attraction scores
• CommunityViz• Future development capacity
• Constrained land• Development characteristics
• Land Suitability Analysis attraction scores
AllocationAllocation Factors
Weighted attraction score (LSA) Potential development areas
(Build-Out) Control totals
Allocation Type
Future year allocation
Future Allocation Map
Scenario Indicators
Legend
Analysis Tool Model Input Data Model OutputModel Assumption Reference Map Scenario Evaluation
GAM CommunityViz
Progress of Scenario 1
Data Collection Model Inputs Constraint Analysis Land Suitability Analysis Build-Out Analysis
Refine: Community Types and development characteristics
Growth Allocation Control totals
Scenario 1 Employment
Scenario 1
Open Space
Low Density Development
Medium Density Development
Open SpaceLow Intensity DevelopmentMedium Intensity DevelopmentHigh Intensity DevelopmentTown CenterMetropolitan Center
