land use change induced by large scale land acquisitions paolo d’odorico 1,2, maria cristina rulli...
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LAND USE CHANGE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS
Paolo D’Odorico1,2, Maria Cristina Rulli 3
Stefano Casirati 3, Kyle Davis 1, Jampel Dell’Angelo 2
1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia2 National Social-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland3 Department of Civil & Environmental Eng., Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Global Agricultural Security depends on TradeIn many countries domestic production is not sufficient
(D’Odorico, et al, Earth’s Future, 2014)Net Importers Net Exporters
1986 2010
Increasing Reliance on TradeGlobally, 24% of the food we eat 40% of biodiesel production
Globalization of Food, Land, and Water
• Increase in food prices, social unrest, riots…• Export bans in Russia, Indonesia, Argentina...• Food insecurity
Vulnerability of Trade-Dependent Countries
A look at the 2008 & 2011 food crisesImportation of food
Picture from: Afronline.org
Large Land Acquisitions
• Need for more food Close Yield Gaps• Need for secure access to food.
Controversial issues: Development opportunities or loss of rural livelihoods?
• Investments to increase yields Agricultural Intensification• … but the land is often not used for production no real development• Dispossession of local communities Loss of Rural Livelihoods• Counterargument: the land was “unused” Agricultural Extensification Environmental Impacts
• Water is a major driverQuestions:- Appropriation of land & land-based resources? Water as a driver?- How much more food can be produced at gap closure?- Prior land use? Evidence of Deforestation?
Global Water Appropriation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Africa SouthAmerica
Asia &Oceania
Total
Gra
bbed
Gre
en W
ater
(billi
ons
of m
3 )Intended, no contract
Contract areas not in production
Contract Areas in Production
• Using land acquisition data from Land Matrix (2013) • And the CROPWAT model for crop water use (FAO)
[Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013.]
Green, Blue, and Grey Water
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Africa SouthAmerica
Asia &Oceania
Total
Grab
bed W
ater
(billi
ons o
f m3 )
Grey Water
Blue Water
Green Water
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gra
bb
ed W
ater
(b
illio
ns
of
m3 ) Grey Water
Blue Water
Green Water
Considering only acquisitions for which a contract area has been reported
Blue Water: Scenario of “maximum irrigation”
[Rulli, Saviori, and D’Odorico, PNAS (2013); Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013]
RainwaterIrrigation water Water to dilute pollution
Comparison with other major water flows
Annual flow (m3 y-1)
Year Source
Water Appropriation from Land Rush 0.4 × 1012 2012 Rulli and D’Odorico,2013.
Groundwater Depletion0.14 × 1012
0.28 × 10122001 2008
Konikow, 2011
Wada et al., 2010
Grounwater Withdrawals 0.6-0.7 × 1012 Margat and Custodio, 2004Water Used for Biofuels ≈ 0.25 × 1012 2010 Our studyVirtual Water Trade (food only) 2.81 × 1012 2010 Carr et al., 2013Freshwater Used for Food 6.75 × 1012
11.8 × 1012
1996-05
2010
Mekonnen&Hoekstra 2011
Carr et al., 2013
Food potentially produced in acquired land
(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)
How many people could be fed?
(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)
(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)
Food “Appropriation” in Africa
Are crops exported or made available to the local populations?
Total for Africa (Millions):52-89: with Existing Technology 123-212: at Gap Closure (140% increase)
223 Million Malnourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2013)
(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)
Only ≈25% of the land is in production
Two different types of impacts
- If previously cultivated/used livelihood loss- If previously uncultivated environmental impacts
(D’Odorico and Rulli, Nat. Geo., 2014)
Was the land previously cultivated?Do land investors cause deforestation?
Data
• 2000-2013 forest change maps by Hansen et al. (Science, 2013) - 30-m resolution Landsat 7 data
• Land oil palm concessions (Indonesian Government). • Logging concessions data for Liberia (WRI, 2014) • The Land Matrix database.
Deforestation in Oil Palm Concessions in Indonesia
About 25% of deforestation is in Oil Palm Concessions
Deforestation in about 25% of Oil Palm Concessions
(Rulli et al., in prep. - See also Carlson et al., PNAS 2012)
The Case of Logging in Liberia
Concessions for loggingForest LossForest Gain
Closed evergreen lowland forest
Mosaic Forest/ Crop-lands
Degraded Evergreen
lowland forest
Deciduous shrubland & Submontane forests
(Rulli et al., in preparation)
(ha)
Conclusions
• If used for local needs the acquired lands would produce enough to abate malnourishment
- … but investors acquire the land as a business opportunity/option for the future, without starting production.
- … commodification of the land- Evidence of deforestation induced by Large Scale Land Acquisitions