land of the spooky tooky owl project by: colin curwen-mcadams kyle avery spencer johnson stephanie...
Post on 22-Dec-2015
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Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl
Project by:
Colin Curwen-McAdams
Kyle Avery
Spencer Johnson
Stephanie Ostrander
Who Says What?• What is the growth rate of the Spooky
Tooky Owls?
• When will the Owls meet their demise?
University Biology Students
• Annual Growth Rate: 97.6%
• Time before population crash: 356.5 years
The Government
• Growth Rate: 86.8%
• Crashes after: 66.4 years
The Sierra Club
• Growth Rate: 65.4%
• Crash after: 22.1 years
What affects Lambda the most?
• Changing the Adult Survival Probability
• Least Sensitive Factors:– Age at which start breeding– Female Fecundity Rates
Momma Owl
Maximum Reproduction Age(or, the previous LHS over the result of one minus the result of the result of s divided by lambda to the power of MRA minus alpha plus 1.)
• A new factor: “W”• What happens to growth
rates and extinction dates?
Republicans = 10
Democrats = 15
Republicans
Without W W = 10
• University Biologists– Growth Rate = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– Growth Rate = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– Growth rate = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183
• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
Democrats
Without W W = 15
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. < 0.9500001– Pop. Crash < 183
• Gov’t– G. R. < 0.8500001– Pop. Crash < 57
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
What? Both parties are wrong?
• LHS made up of three terms
• Two terms are exponential
• W always greater than alpha
• If w – a is small, two terms begin to cancel and
• Nonsense!
Sparky’s Legacy
Without W W = 60
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.976– Pop. Crash = 356
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.868– Pop. Crash = 66
• Sierra Club– G. R. = 0.654– Pop. Crash = 22
• University Biologists– G. R. = 0.96683– Pop. Crash = 278
• Gov’t– G. R. = 0.85725– Pop. Crash = 60
• Sierra Club– G. R. < 0.6500001– Pop. Crash < 21
Equilibrium Occupancy
How many Starbucks can we build?
Hate Triangle?
VS.The Government
The Sierra Club
U of O Scientists
H : Habitable Area
=
=
Habitable50%
Not habitable50%
Habitable25%
Not habitable75%
Habitable38%
Not habitable
62%
P : Observed Equilibrium Occupancy
Inhabited40%
Uninhabited60%
Inhabited70%
uninhabited30%
Inhabited20%
uninhabited80%
=
=
University of Oregon Scientists
• k = 0.772 ± .0589• p = 64.92%
when h=65%
• ho= 38%
• hcritical = 22.8%
31.64% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• 7% more to develop
The Government
• k = 0.85 ± .0725• p = 76.92%
when h=65%
• ho= 50%
• hcritical = 15%
25.88% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• 24% more to develop
The Sierra Club
• k = 0.8 ± .0316• p = 69.23%
when h=65%
• ho= 25%
• hcritical = 20%
24.74% - 10% chance
(1.5σ)• <1% more to develop
Progress
building stuff, selling shit, killing things
Stage 1
Stage 2
• Jobs and stuff
• Good, manly work
• Trees to build stuff for stage 5
Stage 3
• Landscape not all cluttered up with trees
Stage 4
+
Decisions made regardless of science
Stage 5
Create more useful habitat
Stage 6
• What about the Spooky Tooky?
• Why doesn’t this smug bastard get a job?
Stage 7
Okay, what just happened?
• Wide variability of studies makes it impossible to make an informed decision
• Errors surrounding k value make it hard to know how much can be developed
• Cash rules everything around us
What do we do?
• Following the Sierra Club study doesn’t allow for development
• University Study allows for 7%, so we can fit some suburbs
• Government study allows for 24% - which may lead to the extinction of the Spooky Tooky, but allows for the proliferation of a very different species
Stage 8
Fair Trade