Lakeview Area – Predicted PM2.5 Concentrations from Rollback and Dispersion Modeling Results

August 22, 2013

Background

• Conduct a rollback analysis and air dispersion modeling• Part of a larger picture to identify a source’s

contribution to high PM2.5 concentrations• Rollback modeling estimates concentrations using

emissions data and a distance weighting factor

• Emission Inventory Modeling = Future estimated concentrations at the monitor and the area around the monitor• Helps us determine whether Lakeview

will meet the standard in 2019

Initial Rollback Modeling Results If everything remains the same,

Lakeview is not anticipated to meet the standard

2011

(Bas

e Ye

ar)

2017

(Int

erim

Yea

r)

2019

(Fut

ure

Year

)25

30

35

40

45

PM2.5

Weighted Emissions Inventory Results – Contributing Sources (2019)

Open Burning2%

Other Area Sources0%

Residential Wood Heat-ing-Primary

93%

Fugitive Dust 1%

Nonroad sources0%

Industrial permitted sources

5%

Dispersion Modeling Results of Industrial Source Emissions

Potential Reduction Scenarios

1. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace with certified stoves

2. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace with heat pumps

3. Enhanced public awareness and education

4. Mandatory woodstove curtailment program

Uncertified WoodstovesHow many uncertified woodstoves

are in the Lakeview area (2013)?

◦~154 uncertified devices in UGB

◦~256 uncertified devices in SPZ

◦Includes recent changeouts from Department of Energy/Department of Housing funds administered by SCOEDD

Current Conditions - UGB

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169

185 234 262 263 264 264 265 265 265

123123

126 127 127 128 128 128 129

198 145 114 113 111 110 109 108 107

85 101 109 110 110 111 111 111 11134 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 3572 52 40 39 38 37 37 36 35

108 112 115 117 118 118 119 119 120

34 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 41

Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population

Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD

evic

e P

op

ula

tio

n

Change out all wood stoves for Certified Stoves- UGB

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169

185 234 262 288 315 342 369 384 386123

123126 127 127 127 127 127 127

198 145 114 88 62 37 12

0 0

85 101 109 120 131 142 152 153 15434 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 3572 52 40 29 19 8

0 0 0

108 112 115 117 118 118 119 119 12034 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 41

Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population

Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD

evic

e P

op

ula

tio

n

Change out all wood stoves for Non-wood Alternatives - UGB

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169

185 234 262 263 263 264 264 263 265

123123

126 127 127 127 127 127 129198 145 114 88 62 37 12

0 -3

85 101 109 110 110 110 110 111 111

34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

72 52 40 2919 8

0 -1 -2

108 112 115117

118118

119 119 120

34 35 3536

3739

40 41 41

Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population

Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD

evic

e P

op

ula

tio

n

What If Scenarios - ResultsWhat-If Scenarios 2019

(ug/m3)

1) Status Quo 36.4

2) Increased Public Awareness /Education 34.6

3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory 26.8

4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4

5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25

What If Scenarios - ResultsWhat-If Scenarios 2019

(ug/m3)

1) Status Quo 36.4

2) Increased Public Awareness /Education 34.6

3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory 26.8

4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4

5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25

Options to considerWhat is the target planning

threshold to meet for PM2.5 concentration? ◦Current standard – 35 ug/m3◦Other value to provide additional

buffer– 30 ug/m3?

Do you want an interim year in the planning horizon (2017)?

Brainstorming Ideas

Additional Slides

Estimated Woodstove Emissions

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Fireplace

Certified Woodstove

Non-certi-fied Wood-stovePellet Stove

Central Furnace

Lbs/

day

Design Day