LABOUR MARKET

TRENDS Kevin Meaney,

Ian Power,

Christopher Ryan.

1

Overview

1. Employment Trends

2. Unemployment Trends

3. Forecasts

2

Employment Trends by Sector

QNHS

3

-33.7

-157.9

-48.5

-4.7

-14.8

6.7

-10.3

-19.3

-5.2

7.6

20.2

-55.6

-5.1

0.8

-327.3

-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade

Transportation and storage

Accommodation and food service activities

Information and communication

Professional, scientific and technical activities

Administrative and support service activities

Public administration and defence

Education

Human health and social work activities

Industry

Financial, insurance and real estate activities

Other

Total

Q1 2008 - Q3 2012

21.3

15.7

4.9

0.1

18.9

3.5

15.2

0.7

-4.0

7.0

4.1

10.2

0.8

-0.9

94.7

-50 0 50 100

Q3 2012 - Q4 2014

Employment Trends by Sector (y-o-y)

4

(20.00) (10.00) - 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade

Transportation and storage

Accommodation and food service activities

Information and communication

Professional, scientific and technical activities

Administrative and support service activities

Public administration and defence

Education

Human health and social work activities

Industry

Financial, insurance and real estate activities

Other

Total

2013 vs 2014

2014 2013

Contributions to Employment Growth

QNHS

5

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Q1

08

Q2

08

Q3

08

Q4

08

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

12

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4

13

Q1

14

Q2

14

Q3

14

Q4

14

FT PT Total employment

Part time vs. self employed

6

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q1

98

Q3

98

Q1 9

9

Q3

99

Q1

00

Q3

00

Q1

01

Q3

01

Q1

02

Q3

02

Q1

03

Q3

03

Q1

04

Q3

04

Q1 0

5

Q3

05

Q1

06

Q3

06

Q1

07

Q3

07

Q1

08

Q3

08

Q1

09

Q3

09

Q1

10

Q3 1

0

Q1

11

Q3

11

Q1

12

Q3

12

Q1

13

Q3

13

Q1

14

Q3

14

part-time self employed

Employment growth by region

7

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

200

7Q

1

200

7Q

2

200

7Q

3

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

1

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

3

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

1

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

3

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

1

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

3

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

1

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

3

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

1

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

3

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

1

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

3

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

1

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

3

201

4Q

4

Co

ntr

ibutio

n to

y-o

-y g

row

th r

ate

s

National excluding greater Dublin Greater Dublin (D, K, M, W)

Employment Trends by Region

QNHS

8

-40.3

-23.3

-27.6

-91.2

-22

-18.6

-43.7

-41.5

-308.2

-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0

Border

Midland

West

Dublin

Mid-East

Mid-West

South-East

South-West

Total

Q4 2007 to Q4 2011

5

10.9

2.3

38.7

8

-1.8

21.6

6.5

91.2

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Q4 2011 to Q4 2014

Cumulative change in employment by education

9

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

07Q

4

08Q

1

08Q

2

08Q

3

08Q

4

09Q

1

09Q

2

09Q

3

09Q

4

10Q

1

10Q

2

10Q

3

10Q

4

11Q

1

11Q

2

11Q

3

11Q

4

12Q

1

12Q

2

12Q

3

12Q

4

13Q

1

13Q

2

13Q

3

13Q

4

14Q

1

14Q

2

14Q

3

14Q

4

Low

Medium

High

Not stated

All

Source: QNHS, CSO

Unemployment by Duration

Source: QNHS

10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

200

1Q

1

200

1Q

2

200

1Q

3

200

1Q

4

200

2Q

1

200

2Q

2

200

2Q

3

200

2Q

4

200

3Q

1

200

3Q

2

200

3Q

3

200

3Q

4

200

4Q

1

200

4Q

2

200

4Q

3

200

4Q

4

200

5Q

1

200

5Q

2

200

5Q

3

200

5Q

4

200

6Q

1

200

6Q

2

200

6Q

3

200

6Q

4

200

7Q

1

200

7Q

2

200

7Q

3

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

1

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

3

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

1

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

3

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

1

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

3

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

1

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

3

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

1

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

3

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

1

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

3

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

1

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

3

201

4Q

4

Less than 1 year 1 year and over

64%

24%

30%

37%

59%

Exits from the Live Register

11

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15

Left to Take up employment No Longer Entitled to Unemployment

Took up Educational, Training or Employment Placement Transferred to other DSW Schemes

No Reason Stated % of Exits compared to LR stock (RHS)

Live Register Exit Rates to Employment

25%

12%

10%

7%

4%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Less than 3 months 3 to 6 months 6 months to 1 year

1 to 2 years 2 to 3 years Greater than 3 years

DSP/Revenue

12

Outcomes for Claimants Called to Interview

13

8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8%

19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 18%19% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19%

17% 17% 17% 18% 18%18% 19% 20%

18% 17% 16% 15% 16% 16%

26% 27%27%

27% 27%27%

27% 28%27% 25% 25% 26% 27% 28%

29% 29%29%

28%27%

26%26%

26%

27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 30%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

May 13 -Oct 13

June 13 -Nov 13

Jul 13 -Dec 13

Aug 13 -Jan 14

Sep 13 -Feb 14

Oct 13 -March 14

Nov 13 -April 14

Dec 13 -May 14

Jan 14 -June 14

Feb 14 -July 14

March 14- Aug 14

April 14 -Sep 14

May 14 -Oct 14

June 14 -Nov 14

Entered Employment Entered Activation Scheme (Work Programme or FET)

Referred to Activation Scheme but not commenced Still on Benefit

Not on Benefit

Part Time Workers <19 hours & Casuals

14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

40000

80000

120000

160000

200000

240000

280000

200

7Q

1

200

7Q

2

200

7Q

3

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

1

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

3

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

1

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

3

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

1

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

3

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

1

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

3

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

1

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

3

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

1

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

3

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

1

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

3

201

4Q

4

Part Time Workers <19 hours

Casuals

% Share (RHS)

Unemployment: QNHS vs. LR

15

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

201

1Q

1

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

3

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

1

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

3

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

1

201

3Q

2

201

3Q

3

201

3Q

4

201

4Q

1

201

4Q

2

201

4Q

3

201

4Q

4

QNHS Live Register

Source: CSO

QNHS vs. the Live Register

16

1.58

1.53

1.67

2.47

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

Mid-East Dublin State Border

1.58

1.53

1.67

2.47

1.33

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

Mid-East Dublin State Border State - LR minus Casuals

Labour Market Transitions

SOLAS, National Skills

Bulletin 2015

17

Unemployment

Inactivity

Inter-

occupational

78,800

Intra-

occupational

166,000

Employment

184,700

171,800

Labour Market Transitions: 2012-2014

18

-50,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Net Unemployment toEmployment

Net Inactivity to Employment Net Unemployment toInactivity

Intra-OccupationalTransitions

Inter-OccupationalTransitions

2012 2013 2014

Employment growth reducing unemployment

Q4 on Q4 ('000) 2012 2013 2014

Change in Persons aged 15 years and over in Employment 1.2 60.9 29.1

Change in Unemployed Persons aged 15 years -19.3 -41.4 -39.6

Net Unemployment to Employment Transitions 10.0 36.8 40.6

Net Inactivity to Employment Transitions 0 21.5 11.1

19

Net Migration by Age Group

20

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0 - 14 15 - 24 25 - 44

45 - 64 65+ All ages

Source: Population & Migration

estimates, April 2014, CSO

Youth unemployment rates

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1

07

Q2 0

7

Q3

07

Q4

07

Q1

08

Q2

08

Q3

08

Q4

08

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

12

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4 1

3

Q1

14

Q2

14

Q3

14

Q4

14

15-19 20-24 25-34

Source: QNHS, CSO

Unemployment by previous occupation

22

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ind

ustr

y

Constr

uctio

n

Wh

ole

sa

le a

nd

reta

iltr

ade

Tra

nspo

rta

tion

an

dsto

rag

e

Accom

mo

da

tion

an

dfo

od

se

rvic

e

Info

rma

tio

n a

nd

co

mm

unic

atio

n

Fin

ancia

l

Pro

fessio

nal

Adm

inis

trative

an

dsu

pp

ort

se

rvic

e

Pub

lic a

dm

inis

tratio

n a

nd

defe

nce E

du

ca

tion

Hu

man h

ea

lth

an

d s

ocia

lw

ork

Q4 2012 Q4 2014

Labour market forecasts

23

Source: SPU April 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

as a

% o

f la

bour

forc

e

Em

plo

yment

(thousands)

Total Employment (lhs) SUR (rhs)

Cumulative change in employment

24

Source: DoF forecasts

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Em

plo

ym

en

t (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Agriculture Services

Manufacturing Construction

Total Employment

Unemployment rate forecasts

25

Source: Institutions as cited

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

as a

% o

f la

bo

ur

forc

e

DOF (Apr) IMF (Apr) CBI (Apr)

OECD (Nov) ESRI (Mar) COM (May)

Davy (Feb)

Core Messages1. Employment is recovering and is forecast to continue to recover

2. Employment creation is: 30,000 less in 2014 than 2013

Broad based across sectors

Predominantly full time

Regionally dispersed in 2013 but concentrated in Greater Dublin in 2014

3. Employment growth is acting to reduce unemployment BUT QNHS unemployment reducing faster than LR

Regional disparities between the QNHS and LR

Long Term Unemployment remains the problem

Number of LR casuals elevated compared to pre-crises

4. Forecast suggests employment will exceed pre-crisis levels by 2020 BUT with significantly different composition

Unemployment projected to decline from average 9.6 in 2015 to 6.9 in 2020

26