labour market analysis - cornwall council...2.4 jsa on and off-flows 16 2.5 labour market –...

Labour Market

Analysis

Monthly Update – February Release

Economic Development and Culture

1. Summary 1 1.1 Cornwall 1 1.2 United Kingdom 6

2. Cornwall 8 2.1 Jobseekers Allowance 8 2.2 Community Network Areas 12 2.3 Jobseekers by occupation - changes 14 2.4 JSA on and off-flows 16 2.5 Labour market – Resident data 17 2.6 Labour market - Workplace data 22 2.7 Vacancies 25 2.8 Claimant count data 31 2.9 Benefit claimants – Working age client group 33 2.10 Apprenticeship starts by sector – Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly 36

3. United Kingdom 38 3.1 Main points for October to December 2016 38 3.2 Summary of Labour Market Statistics 40 3.3 Employment 40 3.4 Public and Private Sector Employment 43 3.5 Actual Hours Worked 44 3.6 Workforce Jobs 45 3.7 Average Weekly Earnings 46 3.8 Unemployment 48 3.9 Claimant Count (experimental statistics) 50 3.10 Economic Inactivity 53 3.11 Young People in the Labour Market 55 3.12 Redundancies 57 3.13 Vacancies 58 3.14 Main Out of Work Benefits 58

Labour Market Analysis February 2017 release 1

1. Summary

1.1 Cornwall

Jobseekers Allowance The latest JSA count data for January was released on 15th February 2017.

The total for Cornwall is now 3,201. Since December numbers in Cornwall have increased by 120 or 3.9%.

The January figure was the lowest recorded during the run of data since 1992.

Year-on-year (January to January) the number of claimants in Cornwall decreased by 485 or 13%.

Since November 2012 the numbers each month have fallen year-on-year.

Comparing the change in numbers for Cornwall between December and January each year (since 1993) indicates that numbers increased in all of the

25 years. The increase in January 2017 was the lowest increase since 1994.

Cornwall’s JSA rate in January was 1.0%, up 0.1 point on the December rate.

Year-on-year (January to January), Cornwall’s rate fell by 0.1 point, from

1.1% to 1.0%.

Community Network Areas

On a monthly basis 14 of the 19 CNAs saw increases, while 4 saw decreases with no change in Bude.

Compared to January 2016, one area saw an increase - Launceston at

(+14%), Camelford saw no change while 17 saw decreases. Highest rates in January were in Camborne-Pool-Redruth (1.5%) then

Newquay at 1.4%. Lowest rates were found in Wadebridge & Padstow (0.6%) and then Camelford, Cornwall Gateway, Helston & the Lizard, Launceston, and

Truro & Roseland all at 0.7%. 14 areas saw rates decline year-on-year while 4 saw rates remain stable and Launceston saw rates rise.

Occupations Year-on-year in January 2017 of the 26 occupational groups, 2 saw numbers

rise, 3 were static and 21 saw numbers fall.

Comparing January 2017 to December 2016, overall numbers increased by 115. There were 7 occupations where numbers rose, 15 occupations which

were static and 4 where numbers fell.

JSA on and off-flows

In January there were 659 off-flows and 784 on-flows. Of the 6601 off-flows, 32.6% were accounted for by people obtaining a job, 28.0% not known and 23.5% failed to sign.

1 Numbers are always rounded for this dataset.


Labour market – Resident based

Labour market figures for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly from the Annual Population Survey are available up to September 20162. This covers those of working age namely the 16-64 age group who are resident in the area3.

In total there were 319,600 aged 16-64, of whom 260,300 were economically active with 247,700 who were employed. Of these 192,300 were employees

with 54,100 self-employed4). Of those employed 181,700 worked full-time with 65,800 working part-time. There were 12,600 who were unemployed, and 59,300 who were economically inactive.

The figures show that over the last year the total aged 16-64 has fallen slightly5, the numbers of economically active rose while the numbers of economically inactive have fallen. Employment numbers are up, with a rise in

both self-employed and employees. Part-time numbers fell but were offset by the rise in full-time numbers. The number of unemployed was essentially

stable over the year.

Looking at percentage changes over the year, the number employed rose by 3%, in contrast to the slight fall in the 16-64 age group, with self-employed up by 6% and full-time up by 8% with part-time down by 8%.

Over the year, the self-employment share of employment moved up from

21.6% to 22.0%. The share taken by full-time increased from 69.9% to 73.3% while part-time fell back from 29.9% to 26.6%. Unemployment rates remained stable at 4.9%.

Pre-recession employment figures peaked at 236,300 then fell back between

2008 and 2010 before picking up in late-2011.

Self-employed numbers increased from early 2006 until early 2008 before

falling back slightly. Highs were reached again in late 2011 (52,300), declining up to early 2013 before rising again and peaking at 55,100 in 2014.

Since then numbers have fallen back.

Employee numbers rose from 2004 to 2006 (191,000), then steadily declined

to 172,300 in 2010. Numbers then rose again to reach 188,300 in mid-2014, since when numbers fell back until early 2015 then remained stable prior to

the latest increase to 192,300.

After reaching a low of 7,500 in early 2006 the numbers of unemployed rose

to peak in 2010 at 23,000 before falling back to 12,400 in early 2012. Numbers climbed again until mid-2013 to 15,600 then fell until mid-2015 to

9,700. Numbers then rose reaching 15,100 in mid 2016 but with the latest quarterly figure of 12,600.

2 Figures cover a year and are produced quarterly; all figures for age group 16-64.

3 Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates.

4 Numbers may not sum to all those employed. 5 Due to the volatility of the data changes in figures from one period to another may not reflect

underlying trends.


Economic activity numbers peaked in the mid and late 2011 periods then fell

back until mid-2012. Numbers then increased reaching 255,500 in late 2014 before moving downwards. The latest figure was 260,300.

Labour market - Workplace data Latest data shows all those in employment, including those aged 65 plus,

whose workplace is in Cornwall6, up to the year ending September 2016. The data shows there were 264,200 working in Cornwall in the year ending September 2016. Of these 62,000 were self-employed, with 192,800

employees, and with another 9,400 employees deemed to be working on a flexible basis. Over the year, numbers in employment, across all categories

increased by 25,400. This increase looks as if it is the result of a statistical blip as it is a rather dramatic increase!

Over the year, the total in employment rose from 238,800 to 264,200, this

was attributable to an increase in both employee and self-employed numbers.

The number on flexible contracts fell back from 13,600 to 9,400.

As a share of the workforce, self-employed rose marginally from 23.0% to 23.5%, while those on flexible contracts fell from 5.7% to 3.6% of the total.

Sixty-five plus Overall since 2004 there has been a general upward trend in both the

numbers and share of the workforce of those aged 65 plus. In 2004 there were 6,600 while the figure in mid 2011 was 15,000. Numbers dipped in the 2011 downturn before recovering in early 2014. From then onwards numbers

dipped until late 2015 but the last three quarters have seen an increase in the figures, with numbers now at 20,100.

In 2004, the 65 plus age group constituted 2.8% of the workforce, by late

2013 it had reached 6.4% and now stands at 7.6.

Vacancies

In January there were 2,430 job postings in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly. This was up from the 1,689 in December but down year-on-year from the 3,030 in January 2016. In percentage terms numbers are 20% lower compared to a

year ago.

Year-on-year figures have remained negative since March with the exception of the July figure.

Looking at the geographical distribution within Cornwall7 Truro accounted for a significant number of vacancies – 20.7% of the total. Other top towns were

Bude (9.7%), Newquay (5.7%), Falmouth (4.7%), and Bodmin (4.6%). The top ten towns accounted for 62.5% of all vacancies.

6 Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates.

7 Not all vacancies have a specific geographic location, 26.9% in all.


Claimant count

The latest claimant count data for Cornwall showed a total of 4,965 in January 2017 up by 180 on the December figure. Numbers also increased across England and the UK.

Compared to January 2016, numbers were up by 85 or 1.7% from 4,880 to

4,965. In contrast the UK total increased by 0.1%. The difference here is to be explained by the more seasonal nature of the Cornish economy.

The claimant count rate in January 2017 was 1.5%, the same as the December 2016 figure. Compared to January 2016, the rate was unchanged

at 1.5%. The UK rate remained stable at 1.9% in January 2016 compared to January 2017.

Benefit claimants – working age client group The latest release brings the working age data up to August 2016. This gives

a total of 38,770 claimants of whom 28,290 were claiming out-of-work benefits.

The number on out-of-work benefits in the August quarter fell compared to the previous quarter and on an annual basis. The all working age benefits total also fell on both a quarterly and annual basis. Both changes were largely

attributable to changes in the number of JSA claimants and those on Disabled benefits.

Over the year the total claimant rate fell by 0.6 points from 12.5% to 11.9%,

the out-of-work rate fell by 0.5 points from 9.2% to 8.7%.

At 8.7% the out-of-work claimant rate was close to the GB rate of 8.6%. The total Working Age rate at 11.9% was above the GB rate of 11.3%.

Both out-of-work and total working age rates across Great Britain fell on a

quarterly and an annual basis.

Looking at the trends in all benefits comparing Cornwall and Great Britain. For

Cornwall there was a general decline in the all working age benefits rate from 1999 (15.1%) reaching a low of 12.9% in May 2008. With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 14.7% in February 2009, and rising

to 15.1% in February 2012. Since then the rate has fallen back to 11.9%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall have been below the GB average

although since August 2012 they have been slightly above.

Out-of-work benefits trends. In Cornwall, there was a general decline in the out-of-work benefits rate from 1999 (13.3%) reaching a low of 10.3% in May 2008. With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 12.1%

in February 2009. Since then the rate has fallen back to stand at 8.7%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the GB average, since

November 2013 figures have been slightly above or more recently similar to the GB average.


Apprenticeship starts by sector – Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Data for the 11 year period 2005/06 to 2015/16 shows that numbers steadily increased from 2,120 in 2005/05 to 6,260 in 2011/12. Since then numbers have fallen back to stand at 5,460 in 2015/16.

The latest full year data for 2015/16 showed a total of 5,460 starts. The most

popular sector was ‘Health, Public Services and Care’ which accounted for 30% of the total. The other main sectors were ‘Business, Administration and Law’ and ‘Retail and Commercial Enterprise’ both with 18% and ‘Engineering and

Manufacturing Technologies' with 17%.

Looking at the percentage share by sector over time. Despite having a similar share in 2015/16 to 2005/06 (18% to 17%), ‘Business, Administration and Law’

saw some change peaking in 2009/10 at 30%. ‘Retail and Commercial Enterprise’ has seen a gradual decline over time, from 29% down to 18%. In contrast ‘Health, Public Services and Care’ increased from 13% to 30%.


1.2 United Kingdom

Main points for October to December 2016

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between the quarter

July to September 2016 and October to December 2016, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people was little

changed, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were 31.84 million people in work, 37,000 more than for July to September 2016 and 302,000 more than for a year earlier.

There were 23.29 million people working full-time, 218,000 more than for a

year earlier. There were 8.55 million people working part-time, 84,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the highest since comparable records began in

1971.

There were 1.60 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking

and available to work), little changed compared with the quarter July to September 2016 but 97,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 877,000 unemployed men, little changed compared with the

quarter July to September 2016 but 48,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 720,000 unemployed women, little changed compared with the


The unemployment rate was 4.8%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It

has not been lower since the quarter July to September 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus

those unemployed) that were unemployed.

There were 8.86 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically

inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 31,000 fewer than for July to September 2016 and 61,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were

economically inactive) was 21.6%, slightly lower than for the quarter July

to September 2016 (21.7%) and lower than for a year earlier (21.8%).

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.6%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year

earlier.


Introduction This report sets out the latest data relating to the labour market, based on the data released by the Office for National Statistics (some of which is provided

through NOMIS).

NB JSA figures for Cornwall and other areas in Section 2 are not seasonally adjusted and include those aged 16-64s. Figures provided in Section 3 at a UK level are seasonally adjusted and cover those aged 18-64. These are

the figures cited on the BBC and other media outlets. Hence, the difference in format will account for any discrepancy in the figures.


2. Cornwall

2.1 Jobseekers Allowance The latest JSA count data for January was released on 15th February 2017.

[This figure is considered to underestimate the actual numbers unemployed, as

it does not include people who are actively seeking work but not claiming Jobseekers Allowance, who are however included in the unemployment figures

which are taken as a more accurate representation of the situation. NB. Not seasonally adjusted. Figures for Cornwall cover the unitary area only].

The total for Cornwall is now 3,201. Since December numbers in Cornwall have increased by 120 or 3.9%. Within the SW, 13 of the 16 County/Unitary areas, saw increases in the number of claimants from the previous month. Poole saw

the largest increase at + 8.0%. Three authorities saw declines with the largest in Swindon at -14.1%. The January figure for Cornwall was the lowest recorded

during the run of data since 1992. The UK figure was up by 3.7%, Great Britain was up by 3.9% and South West England up by 3.5%. All details in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1: JSA count – numbers

Jan Dec Jan Change

2016 2016 2017 Monthly Annual

Area No's No's No's No's % No's %

Bath and NE

Somerset 678 260 257 -3 -1.2 -421 -62

Bournemouth 1,422 1,336 1,441 105 7.9 19 1

Bristol, City of 4,746 3,738 3,869 131 3.5 -877 -18

Cornwall 3,686 3,081 3,201 120 3.9 -485 -13

Devon 3,752 2,918 3,115 197 6.8 -637 -17

Dorset 1,695 1,353 1,423 70 5.2 -272 -16

Gloucestershire 3,233 2,622 2,752 130 5.0 -481 -15

Isles of Scilly 6 4 5 1 25.0 -1 -17

North Somerset 907 777 808 31 4.0 -99 -11

Plymouth 3,559 2,611 2,680 69 2.6 -879 -25

Poole 736 677 731 54 8.0 -5 -1

Somerset 2,752 1,517 1,468 -49 -3.2 -1,284 -47

South

Gloucestershire 1,496 1,053 1,078 25 2.4 -418 -28

Swindon 1,402 1,081 929 -152 -14.1 -473 -34

Torbay 1,688 1,096 1,170 74 6.8 -518 -31

Wiltshire 1,781 1,661 1,753 92 5.5 -28 -2

Cornwall & IoS 3,692 3,085 3,206 121 3.9 -486 -13

SW England 33,539 25,785 26,680 895 3.5 -6,859 -20

England 516,520 390,879 405,001 14,122 3.6 -111,519 -22

Great Britain 617,300 466,694 484,747 18,053 3.9 -132,553 -21

UK 656,620 498,689 517,194 18,505 3.7 -139,426 -21

[Evidence presented to the House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee suggests that a proportion of JSA claimants who are sanctioned move off JSA but

do not gain employment. It is not known what impact this has on the JSA figures but the implication is that they under-estimate the actual figures].


Year-on-year (January to January) the number of claimants in Cornwall decreased

by 485 or 13%. This compares to a decrease across the UK of 21%, Great Britain of 21% and South West England by 20%. Compared to January 2016, all authorities with the exception of Bournemouth saw a decrease in numbers. The

largest percentage decreases were Bath & North East Somerset (-62%), Somerset (-47%) and Swindon (-34%).

Since November 2012, the numbers have fallen year-on-year in Cornwall.

Fig 2.1 tracks the year-on-year changes in percentage terms since 2008. The labour market started to turn down in July 2008 with increases in job seeker

numbers rising thereafter, peaking in the quarter March to May 2009. The rate of increase then fell back before returning to positive territory in March 2010 with

numbers decreasing. However by April 2011 the situation deteriorated again with an increase in claimants until December 2011, remaining in negative territory until August 2012. From November 2012 the position turned positive with each month

seeing the percentage change year-on-year increase to peak at -38% in August 2014. Since then the year-on-year change has fallen back, however the latest

figure at -13%, showed an acceleration in the rate of decrease.

Comparing the change in numbers for Cornwall between December and January each year (since 1993) indicates that numbers increased in all of the 25 years. The figures vary with larger increases linked to a weaker economy particularly

2008 with the onset of the recession and vice versa. The increase in January 2017 was the lowest increase since 1994.

Figure 2.2 below shows the change expressed in percentage terms for each year.


JSA rate Cornwall’s JSA rate in January was 1.0%, up 0.1 point on the December rate.

Compared to the previous month, JSA rates fell in only one local authority Swindon, were stable in 6 and rose in 9.

Comparative JSA count rates for January were: Cornwall 1.0%, UK 1.3%, Great Britain 1.2%, and South West England 0.8% respectively. Year-on-year (January to January), Cornwall’s rate fell by 0.1 point, from 1.1% to 1.0%. Eleven

authorities saw rates fall over the year, while five saw rates remain stable.


All data is in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2: JSA count – rate

Date Jan Dec Jan Change


Area % % % % % % %

Bath and NE Somerset 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -67

Bournemouth 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 10.0 0.0 0

Bristol, City of 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.1 8.3 -0.2 -13

Cornwall 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 11.1 -0.1 -9

Devon 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 16.7 -0.1 -13

Dorset 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -14

Gloucestershire 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -13

Isles of Scilly 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 33.3 0.0 0

North Somerset 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1 16.7 0.0 0

Plymouth 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 6.7 -0.5 -24

Poole 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.1 14.3 0.0 0

Somerset 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -44

South Gloucestershire 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -33

Swindon 1.0 0.8 0.7 -0.1 -12.5 -0.3 -30

Torbay 2.2 1.4 1.5 0.1 7.1 -0.7 -32

Wiltshire 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0

Cornwall and Isles of

Scilly 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 11.1 -0.1 -9

South West 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -20

England 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.1 9.1 -0.3 -20

Great Britain 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -20

United Kingdom 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.1 8.3 -0.3 -19


2.2 Community Network Areas

The number of claimants and the JSA rate varies within Cornwall and different areas show different trends. Table 2.3 compares the most recent figures and shows changes on a monthly and annual basis. On a monthly basis 14 of the 19

CNAs saw increases, while 4 saw decreases with no change in Bude. The largest increases were in Hayle & St. Ives and St. Agnes & Perranporth (both +13%).

Compared to January 2016, one area saw an increase - Launceston at (+14%), Camelford saw no change while 17 saw decreases. The largest decreases were in

Cornwall Gateway (-27%), St. Agnes & Perranporth (-25%), and Truro & Roseland (-24%).

Table 2.3: JSA count – numbers

Jan Dec Jan Change


Area No's No's No's No's % No's %

Bodmin 152 134 149 15 11 -3 -2

Bude 111 101 101 0 0 -10 -9

Camelford 51 56 51 -5 -9 0 0

Caradon 95 72 80 8 11 -15 -16

China Clay 189 154 167 13 8 -22 -12

Cornwall Gateway 190 141 138 -3 -2 -52 -27

Camborne-Pool-Redruth 650 552 557 5 1 -93 -14

Falmouth & Penryn 336 284 286 2 1 -50 -15

Hayle & St Ives 165 113 128 15 13 -37 -22

Helston & Lizard 162 143 140 -3 -2 -22 -14

Launceston 76 84 87 3 4 11 14

Liskeard & Looe 192 162 176 14 9 -16 -8

Newquay 277 215 234 19 9 -43 -16

St Agnes & Perranporth 106 71 80 9 13 -26 -25

St Austell 231 212 221 9 4 -10 -4

St Blazey, Fowey & Lostwithiel 93 83 85 2 2 -8 -9

Truro & Roseland 263 206 200 -6 -3 -63 -24

Wadebridge & Padstow 88 62 68 6 10 -20 -23

West Penwith 259 236 253 17 7 -6 -2

Cornwall 3,686 3,081 3,201 120 4 -485 -13

It should be noted that as JSA count figures are based on where people live rather than where they work, changes do not necessarily reflect the local economy but also commuting patterns. Vacancies require skills sets which are not always

available in the immediate locality and jobs will of course be open to competition.

Table 2.4 shows the JSA rate by CNA8. Highest rates in January were in Camborne-Pool-Redruth (1.5%) then Newquay at 1.4%. Lowest rates were found

8 Rates based on 2013 MYE data.


in Wadebridge & Padstow (0.6%) and then Camelford, Cornwall Gateway, Helston

& the Lizard, Launceston, and Truro & Roseland all at 0.7%. 14 areas saw rates decline year-on-year while 4 saw rates remain stable and Launceston saw rates rise.

Table 2.4: JSA – rate

Period Jan Dec Jan Change


Area % % % % % %

Bodmin 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0

Bude 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 -0.1 -9

Camelford 0.7 0.8 0.7 -0.1 0.0 0

Caradon 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -16

China Clay 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 -0.1 -12

Cornwall Gateway 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -27

Camborne-Pool-Redruth 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.0 -0.3 -14

Falmouth & Penryn 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -15

Hayle & St Ives 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 -0.2 -22

Helston & Lizard 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -14

Launceston 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 14

Liskeard & Looe 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 -0.1 -8

Newquay 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.1 -0.2 -12

St Agnes & Perranporth 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -19

St Austell 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0

St Blazey, Fowey &

Lostwithiel 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0

Truro & Roseland 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -31

Wadebridge & Padstow 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -23

West Penwith 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 -0.1 -9

Cornwall 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 -0.1 -13


2.3 Jobseekers by occupation - changes

Year-on-year in January 2017 there were 490 fewer jobseekers9 compared to January 2016. Of the 26 occupational groups, 2 saw numbers rise, 3 were static and 21 saw numbers fall – (Table 2.5)10. The biggest reductions were: ‘Corporate

Managers’ (-90), ‘Elementary Administration and Service Occupations’ (-85) and ‘Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations’ (-80). ‘Sales

occupations’ increased by 70.

Table 2.5: Changes in jobseeker numbers – Jan 2017 compared to Jan 2016

Period 2016 2017 Change

Usual Occupation No’s No’s No’s %

71 : Sales Occupations 2,145 2,215 70 3

24 : Business and Public Service Professionals 0 5 5

21 : Science and Technology Professionals 5 5 0 0

22 : Health Professionals 0 0 0 0

33 : Protective Service Occupations 0 0 0 0

23 : Teaching and Research Professionals 10 5 -5 -50

31 : Science and Technology Associate

Professionals

15 10 -5 -33

32 : Health and Social Welfare Associate

Professionals

5 0 -5 -100

34 : Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 20 15 -5 -25

35 : Business and Public Service Associate

Professionals

10 5 -5 -50

42 : Secretarial and Related Occupations 10 5 -5 -50

72 : Customer Service Occupations 15 10 -5 -33

12 : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture and

Services

15 5 -10 -67

51 : Skilled Agricultural Trades 40 30 -10 -25

62 : Leisure and Other Personal Service

Occupations

20 10 -10 -50

52 : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades 25 10 -15 -60

81 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 45 30 -15 -33

53 : Skilled Construction and Building Trades 45 25 -20 -44

54 : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades 40 20 -20 -50

61 : Caring Personal Service Occupations 55 30 -25 -45

82 : Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and

Operatives

45 20 -25 -56

00 : Occupation unknown 255 220 -35 -14

41 : Administrative Occupations 155 80 -75 -48

91 : Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related

Occupations

205 125 -80 -39

92 : Elementary Administration and Service

Occupations

220 135 -85 -39

11 : Corporate Managers 275 185 -90 -33

Total 3,685 3,195 -490 -13

9 All numbers are rounded. Includes ‘Occupation unknown’.

10 The figures do not necessarily show which occupations people have moved into only the usual

occupation of the claimant prior to claiming JSA.


Comparing January 2017 to December 2016, overall numbers increased by 115. There were 7 occupations where numbers rose, 15 occupations which were static and 4 where numbers fell. ‘ Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related

Occupations’ fell by 10. Sales occupations’ saw the biggest increase of 95.

All data is in Table 2.6.

Table 2.6: Changes in jobseeker numbers – Jan 2017 compared to

Dec 2016

Period Nov Dec Change

Usual Occupation No’s No’s No’s

71 : Sales Occupations 2,120 2,215 95

00 : Occupation unknown 205 220 15

41 : Administrative Occupations 75 80 5

51 : Skilled Agricultural Trades 25 30 5

53 : Skilled Construction and Building Trades 20 25 5

62 : Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations 5 10 5

92 : Elementary Administration and Service Occupations 130 135 5

12 : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture and Services 5 5 0

21 : Science and Technology Professionals 5 5 0

22 : Health Professionals 0 0 0

23 : Teaching and Research Professionals 5 5 0

24 : Business and Public Service Professionals 5 5 0

33 : Protective Service Occupations 0 0 0

34 : Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 15 15 0

35 : Business and Public Service Associate Professionals 5 5 0

42 : Secretarial and Related Occupations 5 5 0

52 : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades 10 10 0

54 : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades 20 20 0

61 : Caring Personal Service Occupations 30 30 0

72 : Customer Service Occupations 10 10 0

81 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 30 30 0

82 : Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives 20 20 0

11 : Corporate Managers 190 185 -5

31 : Science and Technology Associate Professionals 15 10 -5

32 : Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals 5 0 -5

91 : Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations 135 125 -10

Total 3,080 3,195 115


2.4 JSA on and off-flows

In January there were 659 off-flows and 784 on-flows. Of the 66011 off-flows, 32.6% were accounted for by people obtaining a job, 28.0% not known and 23.5% failed to sign. All details in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7: Off-flows –reasons

Reason No's %

Found work or increased work to more than 16 hours a week 215 32.6

Not known 185 28.0

Failed to sign 155 23.5

Claimed benefit other than JSA 35 5.3

Ceased claiming 35 5.3

Gone abroad 20 3.0

Other reasons 15 2.3

Education or approved training 5 0.8

Government supported training 0 0.0

Total 660 100.0

NOMIS state: The percentage of off-flows with a "not known" or "failed to sign"

destination has increased since the start of the series (representing 44% of total UK off-flows in July 2009). This is because the completion levels of the forms filled in by JSA leavers have decreased. Many of these unknown leavers will have

moved into employment.

11

Numbers are always rounded for this dataset.


2.5 Labour market – Resident data

Labour market figures for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly from the Annual

Population Survey are available up to September 201612

. This data set covers

those of working age namely the 16-64 age group who are resident in the area13.

In total there were 319,600 aged 16-64, of whom 260,300 were economically active with 247,700 who were employed. Of these 192,300 were employees with

54,100 self-employed14). Of those employed 181,700 worked full-time with 65,800 working part-time. There were 12,600 who were unemployed, and 59,300

who were economically inactive.

The figures show that over the last year the total aged 16-64 has fallen slightly15, the numbers of economically active rose while the numbers of economically

inactive have fallen. Employment numbers are up, with a rise in both self-employed and employees. Part-time numbers fell but were offset by the rise in full-time numbers. The number of unemployed was essentially stable over the

year.

All data in Table 2.8.

Table 2.8: Labour market indicators – Cornwall & IoS

Period Change

Date Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Prev

Qtr Year

Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's

16-64 322100 322200 321100 320900 319600 -1300 -2500

Econ active 252000 253100 253100 251700 260300 8600 8300

Econ inactive 70100 69000 68000 69200 59300 -9900 -10800

Employed 239700 239300 239900 236600 247700 11100 8000

Unemployed 12400 13900 13200 15100 12600 -2500 200

Employees 185400 186400 189400 184900 192300 7400 6900

Self employed 51000 49700 48400 50200 54100 3900 3100

Full-time 167500 172300 172800 171700 181700 10000 14200

Part-time 71500 66300 66400 64600 65800 1200 -5700

Flexible 15600 12900 13200 11700 11600 -100 -4000

Looking at percentage changes over the year, the number employed rose by 3%, in contrast to the slight fall in the 16-64 age group, with self-employed up by 6%

and full-time up by 8% with part-time down by 8%.

12

Figures cover a year and are produced quarterly; all figures for age group 16-64. 13

Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates. 14 Numbers may not sum to all those employed. 15

Due to the volatility of the data changes in figures from one period to another may not reflect

underlying trends.


Table 2.9: Labour market indicators –

Cornwall & IoS

Date Oct-14 Oct-15 Change YOY

Sep-15 Sep-16

Group No's No's No's %

16-64 322100 319600 -2500 -1

Econ active 252000 260300 8300 3

Econ inactive 70100 59300 -10800 -15

Employed 239700 247700 8000 3

Unemployed 12400 12600 200 2

Employees 185400 192300 6900 4

Self employed 51000 54100 3100 6

Full-time 167500 181700 14200 8

Part-time 71500 65800 -5700 -8

Flexible 15600 11600 -4000 -26

Over the year, the self-employment share of employment moved up from 21.6% to 22.0%. The share taken by full-time increased from 69.9% to 73.3% while

part-time fell back from 29.9% to 26.6%. Unemployment rates remained stable at 4.9%.

Table 2.10: Labour market indicators – Cornwall & IoS

Period Change

Date

Oct-14

Sep-15

Jan-15

Dec-15

Apr-15

Mar-16

Jul-15

Jun-16

Oct-15

Sep-16

Prev Qtr

Year

Group % % % % % % %

Econ active 78.2 78.6 78.8 78.4 81.4 3.0 3.2

Econ inactive 21.8 21.4 21.2 21.6 18.6 -3.0 -3.2

Employed 74.4 74.3 74.7 73.7 77.5 3.8 3.1

Unemployed 4.9 5.5 5.2 6 4.9 -1.1 0.0

Employees 78.4 78.9 79.6 78.6 78.0 -0.6 -0.4

Self employed 21.6 21.1 20.4 21.4 22.0 0.6 0.4

Full-time 69.9 72 72 72.6 73.3 0.7 3.4

Part-time 29.9 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.6 -0.7 -3.3

Flexible 6.2 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.3 -0.3 -1.9

Fig 2.3 shows trends over time. Pre-recession employment figures peaked at 236,300 then fell back between 2008 and 2010 before picking up in late-2011.

Self-employed numbers increased from early 2006 until early 2008 before falling back slightly. Highs were reached again in late 2011 (52,300), declining up to

early 2013 before rising again and peaking at 55,100 in 2014. Since then numbers have fallen back. Employee numbers rose from 2004 to 2006 (191,000), then steadily declined to 172,300 in 2010. Numbers then rose again

to reach 188,300 in mid-2014, since when numbers fell back until early 2015 then


remained stable prior to the latest increase to 192,300. After reaching a low of

7,500 in early 2006 the numbers of unemployed rose to peak in 2010 at 23,000 before falling back to 12,400 in early 2012. Numbers climbed again until mid-2013 to 15,600 then fell until mid-2015 to 9,700. Numbers then rose reaching

15,100 in mid 2016 but with the latest quarterly figure of 12,600.

Economic activity numbers peaked in the mid and late 2011 periods then fell back until mid 2012. Numbers then increased reaching 255,500 in late 2014 before moving downwards. The latest figure was 260,300.

Fig 2.4 shows rates and shares over time. From 2004 to 2007 employees

accounted for over 80% of the workforce. Their share fell slightly to lows around 77% between late 2011 and mid 2012 with a slight rise thereafter. However

levels are still below the 80% level. The self-employed share followed the opposite pattern. Unemployment reached lows in early 2006 (3.2%) to 2006 (3.5%). There was then a steady upward trend to reach 9.4% in 2010. Thereafter

the rate fell, down to 3.8% in mid 2015 followed by a number of increases and now standing at 4.9%. From 2004 to 2012 the full-time share was generally

above the 70% level, falling below in early 2013 however, the last four quarters have seen figures above the 70% threshold.


Comparing Cornwall to the UK using the average for four sets of yearly data16, removes some of the volatility in the data. Comparing the averages in Table 2.11

below shows that: economic activity rates and employment rates have now moved marginally above the UK rate. Economically inactive is slightly below. As

expected both self-employment and part-time employment are higher in Cornwall and conversely employee levels and full-time employment are lower. Average unemployment runs at 5.4% just above the UK average.

Table 2.11: Labour market indicators

- Cornwall and UK

Cornwall UK Ratio

Status % % %

Econ active 79.3 77.7 1.02

Economically inactive 20.7 22.3 0.93

Employed 75.1 73.6 1.02

Unemployed 5.4 5.3 1.02

Employees 78.8 86 0.92

Self employed 21.2 14 1.51

Full-time 72.5 74.4 0.97

Part-time 27.3 25.3 1.08

Flexible 4.8 5.1 0.94

The ratio shows with the figure for Cornwall divided by the UK figure. E.g. 79.3 divided by 77.7 gives a ratio of 1.02. Numbers greater than 1 show Cornwall has

a higher percentage than the UK, less than 1 show that Cornwall has a lower percentage share than the UK.

16

Each period covers one year, and each year includes 3 of the quarters covered in the previous

year.


All employment and 65+

The latest figures show that there were 20,200 people aged 65 plus in the workforce. This represents 7.5% of the workforce, up significantly on the figure of 5.2% a year earlier. Whereas the 16-64 age-group saw a 3.0% increase over the

year, the 65 plus group saw numbers increase by 54%.

Numbers working on a flexible basis fell over the year by 4,000 from 15,600 to 11,600, while the rate fell from 6.2% to 4.3%17.

All details in Table 2.12.

Table 2.12: All Employment – Cornwall

Period Change

Oct-14

Sep-15

Jan-15

Dec-15

Apr-15

Mar-16

Jul-15

Jun-16

Oct-15

Sep-16

Prev

Qtr

Year

ago


65+ 13,100 14,400 16,100 18,000 20,200 2,200 7,100

16-64 239,700 239,300 239,900 236,600 247,700 11,100 8,000

All 252,800 253,700 256,000 254,600 267,900 13,300 15,100

Flexible 15,600 12,900 13,200 11,700 11,600 -100 -4,000

Group % % % % % % %

65+ 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 7.5 0.5 2.4

16-64 94.8 94.3 93.7 92.9 92.5 -0.5 -2.4

Flexible 6.2 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.3 -0.3 -1.9

Source: NOMIS, Annual Population Survey, 18 January 2017.

17

Those working on a non-permanent basis as a % of all employed.


2.6 Labour market - Workplace data

Table 2.13 shows all those in employment, including those aged 65 plus, whose workplace is in Cornwall18, up to the year ending September 2016. The data shows there were 264,200 working in Cornwall in the year ending September

2016. Of these 62,000 were self-employed, with 192,800 employees, and with another 9,400 employees deemed to be working on a flexible basis. Over the

year, numbers in employment, across all categories increased by 25,400. This increase looks as if it is the result of a statistical blip as it is a rather dramatic increase!

Table 2.13: Workplace Employment (No’s)

Period Change

Oct 2014

Sep 2015

Jan 2015

Dec 2015

Apr 2015

Mar 2016

Jul 2015

Jun 2016

Oct 2015

Sep 2016 Prev Qtr Year ago


Employees 170300 171400 176600 176100 192800 16700 22500

Self-employed 54900 56600 55800 58700 62000 3300 7100

Other flexibility 13600 11600 11700 10900 9400 -1500 -4200

All 238800 239600 244100 245700 264200 18500 25400

Over the year, the total in employment rose from 238,800 to 264,200, this was

attributable to an increase in both employee and self-employed numbers. The number on flexible contracts fell back from 13,600 to 9,400.

As a share of the workforce, self-employed rose marginally from 23.0% to 23.5%, while those on flexible contracts fell from 5.7% to 3.6% of the total. All in Table

2.14.

Table 2.14: Workplace Employment (%)

Period Change

Oct-14

Sep-15

Jan-15

Dec-15

Apr-15

Mar-16

Jul-15

Jun-16

Oct-15

Sep-16 Prev Qtr Year ago


Employees 71.3 71.5 72.3 71.7 73.0 1.3 1.7

Self-employed 23.0 23.6 22.9 23.9 23.5 -0.4 0.5

Other flexibility 5.7 4.8 4.8 4.4 3.6 -0.9 -2.1

All 100.0 100 100 100 100 0 0

Fig 2.5 shows workplace employment since 2004. Numbers peaked in early 2008 pre-recession, and then fell back before rising until early 2011. Numbers then fell

back again until late 2012. Numbers then increased to peak in mid 2014 since when they have fallen back though with a recent rise to stand at 264,200. The

chart also shows the 16-64 workforce.

18

Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates.


[Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimate].

Sixty-five plus Figs 2.6 and 2.7 set out what has happened to those aged 65 plus in the

workplace workforce. Overall since 2004 there has been a general upward trend in both the numbers and share of the workforce of those aged 65 plus. In 2004 there were 6,600 while the figure in mid 2011 was 15,000. Numbers dipped in

the 2011 downturn before recovering in early 2014. From then onwards numbers dipped until late 2015 but the last three quarters have seen an increase in the

figures, with numbers now at 20,100.


In 2004, the 65 plus age group constituted 2.8% of the workforce, by late 2013 it had reached 6.4% and now stands at 7.6.

[NB Workplace data is now provided at both a Cornwall and Cornwall and Isles of Scilly level. However, there are issues about the accuracy of the latter set of data

as the discrepancy between the two data sets is substantial. Therefore data for Cornwall is used instead].

Source: ONS, APS, Workplace analysis, 18th January 2017.


2.7 Vacancies

In January there were 2,430 job postings in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly. This was up from the 1,689 in December but down year-on-year from the 3,030 in January 2016. In percentage terms numbers are 20% lower compared to a year ago.

[NB. The vacancy data used here is from a different source than that used by ONS at a UK level].

Fig 2.8 shows the overall trend in vacancy numbers since June 2012 from the Labour Insight tool19,20,21. After peaking in July 2013 numbers fell back but

increased from December 2014 to March 2015. Numbers then fell back particularly in July 2015 followed by a dramatic reversal in August 2015 when

numbers increased dramatically. From then until December 2015 numbers steadily declined before picking up in January 2016. From February to April,

numbers fell back on a monthly basis, followed by increases from May to July with falls every month since then in 2016 with the exception of September. It should be noted that vacancy figures tend to decline towards the end of the year. The

January figure increased compared to the December total.

Fig 2.9 shows year-on-year vacancy data. 2013 saw positive figures compared to

the previous year, this situation continued in the first half of 2014 followed by negative numbers in the latter half of 2014. 2015 saw a return to positive figures,

however in early 2016 the figures were less impressive before slipping into negative territory in March. The monthly year-on-year figures have remained negative since then with the exception of the July 2016 figure.

19

The Labour Insight tool is a system produced by Burning Glass to capture vacancies in the labour

market. 20

Some changes in the figures may reflect improved data capture over time. 21

Burning Glass have recently revised the series therefore all trend data has been updated.


Fig 2.10 shows vacancy data on a quarterly basis. The use of quarterly data removes the volatility which can arise with monthly data. Although some care

should be taken with the figures as lower levels in the earlier period may partly reflect lower data capture rates. The total for 2016 was 30,303 down on the 2015 total of 36,672.

Looking at the geographical distribution within Cornwall22 Truro accounted for a significant number of vacancies – 20.7% of the total. Other top towns were Bude

(9.7%), Newquay (5.7%), Falmouth (4.7%), and Bodmin (4.6%). The ten towns in Table 2.15 accounted for 62.5% of all vacancies.

22

Not all vacancies have a specific geographic location, 26.9% in all.


Table 2.15: Top ten towns

Town No's % Town No's %

Truro 502 20.7 Redruth 109 4.5

Bude 236 9.7 St. Austell 109 4.5

Newquay 138 5.7 Penzance 78 3.2

Falmouth 115 4.7 Liskeard 62 2.6

Bodmin 111 4.6 Launceston 59 2.4

Sub-total 1,519 62.5

[As % of total vacancies]

Table 2.16 shows the top ten vacancies by occupational groups, using the two

digit code, in January. These accounted for 68.9% of all vacancies. ‘Business and public service associate professionals’ at 10.4%, ‘Health professionals’ at 9.8%,

and ‘Administrative occupations’ at 8.7%, were the top three groups.

Table 2.16: Top ten occupations (2 digit)

Occupation No's %

Business and Public Service Associate Professionals (35) 252 10.4

Health Professionals (22) 237 9.8

Administrative Occupations (41) 211 8.7

Science, Research, Engineering and Technology Professionals (21) 187 7.7

Corporate Managers and Directors (11) 168 6.9

Business, Media and Public Service Professionals (24) 153 6.3

Caring Personal Service Occupations (61) 142 5.8

Elementary Administration and Service Occupations (92) 122 5.0

Sales Occupations (71) 107 4.4

Science, Engineering and Technology Associate Professionals (31) 96 4.0

Sub-total 1,675 68.9

[% based on total vacancies]

Table 2.17 shows the top ten vacancies by occupation (4 digit level) in January. These accounted for 25.8% of all vacancies. ‘Nurses’ topped the list followed by

‘Other administrative occupations’ and ‘Care workers and home carers’. It should be noted that vacancy numbers also reflect the amount of ‘churn’, which for some

occupations such as Care workers and home carers, Chefs, Cleaners and domestics, Kitchen and catering assistants and Sales and retail assistants, is higher than the average.


Table 2.17: Top ten occupations (4 digit)

Occupation No's %

Nurses (2231) 146 6.0

Other administrative occupations n.e.c. (4159) 82 3.4

Care workers and home carers (6145) 70 2.9

Chefs (5434) 62 2.6

Human resources and industrial relations officers (3562) 55 2.3

Business sales executives (3542) 49 2.0

Programmers and software development professionals (2136) 44 1.8

Teaching assistants (6125) 40 1.6

Chartered and certified accountants (2421) 39 1.6

IT user support technicians (3132) 39 1.6

Sub-total 626 25.8


Table 2.18 shows vacancies by sector. Not all vacancies can be allocated to a

sector so the table below presents only a partial picture. The highest share was in ‘Health and social work’ at 33.0%, then ‘Accommodation and food services’ with 17.7%, and ‘Education’ at 10.0%.

Table 2.18: Vacancies by sector

Sector No's %

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0 0.0

Mining and quarrying 19 1.4

Manufacturing 102 7.6

Energy 2 0.1

Water, sewerage & waste 6 0.4

Construction 50 3.7

Wholesale, retail & motors 108 8.1

Transportation and storage 26 1.9

Accommodation and food services 237 17.7

Information and communication 17 1.3

Financial and insurance 14 1.0

Real estate 18 1.3

Professional, scientific and technical 69 5.2

Administrative and support services 50 3.7

Public admin etc. 14 1.0

Education 134 10.0

Health and social work 442 33.0

Arts, entertainment and recreation 11 0.8

Other service 19 1.4

Households 1 0.1

All 1339 100


[% based on vacancies where the industry sector was named]

Table 2.19 shows the top ten employers with vacancies in January. The top employer was as is usually the the case, the NHS.

Table 2.19: Vacancies by employer - top ten

Sector No's %

National Health Service 179 12.0

Cornwall Council 73 4.9

Smithcorp 36 2.4

Cornwall Staff Agency Limited 61 4.1

Haven 31 2.1

Rick Stein group 21 1.4

Retallack 20 1.3

Concorde Limited 19 1.3

University of Exeter 16 1.1

Cornwall Development Company Limited 14 0.9

Sub-total 470 31.4

[% share based on those vacancies with named employers].

Of the 2,430 jobs advertised, 1,892 (77.9%) were permanent with 210 (8.6%) temporary. 1,969 (81.0%) were full-time, 128 (5.3%) were part-time.

Table 2.20: Job type

No's % No's %

Permanent 1892 77.9 Full-time 1969 81.0

Temporary 210 8.6 Part-time 128 5.3

Internship 2 0.1 Unknown 333 13.7

Apprenticeships 75 3.1 All 2430 100.0

Unknown 251 10.3


12.7% of vacancies were jobs with salaries below £15,000, with 53.7% between

£15,000 and £29,999.

Table 2.21: Salaries

Range No's % Range No's %

Less than £10,000 74 4.7 £50,000 to £59,999 50 3.2

£10,000 to £14,999 126 8.0 £60,000 to £69,999 26 1.6

£15,000 to £19,999 405 25.7 £70,000 to £79,999 15 1.0

£20,000 to £29,999 441 28.0 £80,000 to £89,999 14 0.9

£30,000 to £39,999 301 19.1 More than £90,000 10 0.6

£40,000 to £49,999 114 7.2 1576 100.0

[% share based on those vacancies where a salary was included].


Mean real-time salary = £27,193.

[Labour Insight uses data from real-time job postings. Salary figures are pro rata

to reflect full-time, annual wage status].

Source: Labour Insight/Jobs, Burning Glass.


2.8 Claimant count data

As a consequence of changes to the welfare system, notably the introduction of Universal Credit, the way the claimant count figures are calculated has changed. There are now two sets of figures, the JSA figures which are shown in Table 2.1 in

this report and the new claimant count figures below. These new figures also include those on Universal Credit.

The latest claimant count data for Cornwall showed a total of 4,965 in January 2017 up by 180 on the December figure. Numbers also increased across England

and the UK. Compared to January 2016, numbers were up by 85 or 1.7% from 4,880 to 4,965. In contrast the UK total increased by 0.1%. The difference here

is to be explained by the more seasonal nature of the Cornish economy.

Table 2.22: Claimant count (16+) – numbers

Month Cornwall

Cornwall

& Isles

of Scilly

South

West

England

England UK

Jan-16 4,880 4,885 40,250 613,035 773,140

Feb-16 5,085 5,095 42,340 635,455 800,775

Mar-16 5,025 5,030 42,595 639,925 805,770

Apr-16 4,770 4,770 41,635 631,730 793,635

May-16 4,485 4,490 40,520 624,535 783,245

Jun-16 4,285 4,285 39,085 611,510 768,195

Jul-16 4,140 4,145 38,920 609,500 768,325

Aug-16 4,035 4,035 39,155 616,025 776,390

Sep-16 4,030 4,035 39,035 614,530 769,860

Oct-16 4,235 4,245 39,975 614,915 766,230

Nov-16 4,560 4,570 40,355 610,600 759,920

Dec-16 4,785 4,795 40,560 605,045 752,125

Jan-17 4,965 4,975 42,270 622,190 774,200

Change No's No's No's No's No's

Monthly 180 180 1,710 17,145 22,075

Year on year 85 90 2,020 9,155 1,060

Change % % % % %

Monthly 3.8 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.9

Year on year 1.7 1.8 5.0 1.5 0.1

The claimant count rate in January 2017 was 1.5%, the same as the December

2016 figure. Compared to January 2016, the rate was unchanged at 1.5%. The UK rate remained stable at 1.9% in January 2016 compared to January 2017.


Table 2.23: Claimant count - Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64

Month Cornwall

Cornwall

& Isles

of Scilly

South

West

England

England UK

Jan-16 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.9

Feb-16 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.9

Mar-16 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.0

Apr-16 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.9

May-16 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.9

Jun-16 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9

Jul-16 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9

Aug-16 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9

Sep-16 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9

Oct-16 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.9

Nov-16 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.8

Dec-16 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8

Jan-17 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.9

Change Points Points Points Points Points

Monthly 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Year on

year 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

ONS state:

Ideally only those Universal Credit claimants who are out of work and required to seek work should be included in the Claimant Count but it is not currently possible to produce estimates on this basis.

The Claimant Count therefore currently includes some out of work claimants of Universal Credit who are not required to look for work; for example, due to illness

or disability.

The Claimant Count estimates are currently designated as experimental statistics because the Universal Credit estimates are still being developed by the

Department for Work and Pensions.

However the Claimant Count estimates do provide the best available estimates of

the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in the UK. The Claimant Count includes people who claim unemployment related benefits but who do not receive payment. For example some claimants will have had their

benefits stopped for a limited period of time by Jobcentre Plus. Some people claim JSA in order to receive National Insurance Credits

Levels are calculated using the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance from table JSA01 plus the number of people claiming out-of-work Universal Credit

benefits. Note due to rounding people may not add up to the sum of men and women.

Source: ONS/DWP, Claimant Count, 15 February 2017.


2.9 Benefit claimants – Working age client group

The latest release brings the working age data up to August 2016. This gives a total of 38,770 claimants of whom 28,290 were claiming out-of-work benefits.

The number on out-of-work benefits in the August quarter fell compared to the

previous quarter and on an annual basis. The all working age benefits total also fell on both a quarterly and annual basis. Changes were largely attributable to

changes in the number of JSA claimants and those on Disabled benefits.

Table 2.24: Cornwall - No's

Group\Period

Aug Nov Feb May Aug Change

2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 On last

Qtr Annual

JSA 3,020 3,290 3,580 2,930 2,660 -270 -360

ESA and incapacity benefits 22,730 22,440 22,380 22,110 22,010 -100 -720

Lone parent 3,000 2,950 2,950 2,880 2,870 -10 -130

Other income related benefit 980 930 880 810 760 -50 -220

Out-of-work benefits 29,730 29,610 29,790 28,730 28,290 -440 -1,440

Carer 5,850 5,920 5,980 6,120 6,190 70 340

Disabled 4,460 4,320 4,130 3,970 3,690 -280 -770

Bereaved 630 620 620 610 590 -20 -40

All other benefits 10,940 10,860 10,730 10,700 10,470 -230 -470

All WA claimants 40,670 40,470 40,530 39,420 38,770 -650 -1,900

Over the year the total claimant rate fell by 0.6 points from 12.5% to 11.9%, the out-of-work rate fell by 0.5 points from 9.2% to 8.7%.

At 8.7% the out-of-work claimant rate was close to the GB rate of 8.6%. The

total Working Age rate at 11.9% was above the GB rate of 11.3%.

Table 2.25 Cornwall - %


2015 2015 2015 2016 2016

On

last

Qtr

Annual

JSA 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 -0.1 -0.1

ESA and incapacity 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 0.0 -0.2

Lone parent 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0

Other income related 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1

Out-of-work benefits 9.2 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.7 -0.1 -0.5

Carer 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.1

Disabled 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 -0.1 -0.3

Bereaved 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

All other benefits 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 -0.1 -0.2

All WA claimants 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.1 11.9 -0.2 -0.6


Both out-of-work and total working age rates across Great Britain fell on a

quarterly and an annual basis.

Table 2.26: Britain - %


Benefit 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 On last

Qtr Annual

JSA 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.4

ESA and

incapacity 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 -0.1 -0.2

Lone parent 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -0.1

Other income

related 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1

Out-of-work

benefits 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.6 -0.1 -0.6

Carer 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.1

Disabled 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 -0.1 -0.2

Bereaved 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

All other

benefits 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 -0.1 -0.1

All WA claimants 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 -0.2 -0.7

Trends Fig 2.11 shows trends in all benefits comparing Cornwall and Great Britain. For

Cornwall there was a general decline in the all working age benefits rate from 1999 (15.1%) reaching a low of 12.9% in May 2008. With the onset of the

recession figures then picked up to reach 14.7% in February 2009, and rising to 15.1% in February 2012. Since then the rate has fallen back to 11.9%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall have been below the GB average although since

August 2012 they have been slightly above.


Fig 2.12 shows Out-of-work benefits trends. In Cornwall, there was a general

decline in the out-of-work benefits rate from 1999 (13.3%) reaching a low of 10.3% in May 2008. With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 12.1% in February 2009. Since then the rate has fallen back to stand at

8.7%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the GB average, since November 2013 figures have been slightly above or more recently similar to the

GB average as shown in Fig 2.12.

Source: NOMIS/DWP, Benefit claimants – working age client group, 15 February

2017.


2.10 Apprenticeship starts by sector – Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Data for the 11 year period 2005/06 to 2015/16 shows that numbers steadily increased from 2,120 in 2005/05 to 6,260 in 2011/12. Since then numbers have

fallen back to stand at 5,460 in 2015/16.

The latest full year data for 2015/16 showed a total of 5,460 starts. The most popular sector was ‘Health, Public Services and Care’ which accounted for 30% of

the total. The other main sectors were ‘Business, Administration and Law’ and ‘Retail and Commercial Enterprise’ both with 18% and ‘Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies' with 17%.

Table 2.27: Cornwall & IoS, 2015/16

Sector Subject Area No's %

Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 180 3

Arts, Media and Publishing 10 0

Business, Administration and Law 980 18

Construction, Planning and the Built Environment 400 7

Education and Training 70 1

Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies 930 17

Health, Public Services and Care 1,630 30

Information and Communication Technology 150 3

Languages, Literature and Culture -

Leisure, Travel and Tourism 140 3

Preparation for Life and Work -

Retail and Commercial Enterprise 990 18

Science and Mathematics -

Total 5,460 100

Fig 2.27 shows the percentage share by sector over time. Despite having a similar share in 2015/16 to 2005/06 (18% to 17%), ‘Business, Administration and Law’

saw some change peaking in 2009/10 at 30%. ‘Retail and Commercial


Enterprise’ has seen a gradual decline over time, from 29% down to 18%. In

contrast ‘Health, Public Services and Care’ increased from 13% to 30%.

Source: Apprenticeship Programme Starts by Region and Sector Subject Area

(2005/06 to 2016/17 - Reported to date), Department for Education, Skills Funding Agency, January 2017.


3. United Kingdom

3.1 Main points for October to December 2016 “Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between the quarter

July to September 2016 and October to December 2016, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people was little

changed, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were 31.84 million people in work, 37,000 more than for July to September 2016 and 302,000 more than for a year earlier.

There were 23.29 million people working full-time, 218,000 more than for a

year earlier. There were 8.55 million people working part-time, 84,000

more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the highest since comparable records began in

1971.

There were 1.60 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking

and available to work), little changed compared with the quarter July to September 2016 but 97,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were 877,000 unemployed men, little changed compared with the


There were 720,000 unemployed women, little changed compared with the


The unemployment rate was 4.8%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It

has not been lower since the quarter July to September 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus

those unemployed) that were unemployed.

There were 8.86 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically

inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 31,000 fewer than for July to September 2016 and 61,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were

economically inactive) was 21.6%, slightly lower than for the quarter July

to September 2016 (21.7%) and lower than for a year earlier (21.8%).

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.6%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year

earlier”.


All data is shown in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: UK - Labour market indicators Indicator M

easu

re

Period Comparisons

3M23 to Dec 16

3M to Sept 16

Year ago

Employment 24 Rate 74.6

In employment (16+) No’s 31.84m +37,000 +302,000

Employees No’s 26.82m +163,000

Self-employed No’s 4.8m +125,000

Unpaid family workers No’s 129,000 +30,000

Training & emp No’s 86,000 -15,000

Total hours worked per week No’s 1.02bn +3.2m +7.1m

Average hours worked per week

Nos 32.1

Unemployment Rate 4.8

Unemployment No’s 1.6m = -97,000

Over 12 months No’s 404,000 -86,000

16-24 – unemployed 25 No’s 568,000

Inactivity Rate 21.6

Inactivity No’s 8.86m -31,000 -61,000

Redundant No’s 121,000 = +23,000

Indicator Measu

re

Dec Dec 15

Average regular weekly pay (ex bonuses) 26

£477 £466

Sept 16 June 16 Year ago

Workforce jobs No’s 34.59m +58,000 +529,000

Sept 16 June 16 Year ago

Public sector employment 27 No’s 5.44m +12,000 -10,000

Private sector employment No’s 26.32m -17,000 +352,000

Jan 17 Dec 16 Year ago

Claimant count 28 No’s 745,000 -42,400 +2,800

3 M to Jan

17

3 M to Oct

16

Year ago

Vacancies No’s 751,000 -9,000 -13,000

Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Market Statistics, Statistical Bulletin,

15 February 2017.

23 Months 24

16-64 age group 25 369,000 excluding those in full-time education – 199,000. 26 Great Britain 27

Mainly reflecting reclassification of some educational bodies. 28

This is the new Claimant count data set which includes JSA and Universal Credit.


3.2 Summary of Labour Market Statistics

“Fig 3.1 shows the latest estimates, or October to December 2016, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and show how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (July to September 2016) and the

previous year (October to December 2015). Comparing the estimates for October to December 2016 with those for July to September 2016 provides the most

robust short-term comparison.

Fig 3.1: Quarterly and annual changes in the number of people in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics.

3.3 Employment

Employment measures the number of people in work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job.

Commentary

The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work is known as the employment rate. Fig 3.2 shows the employment rates for people, men and women aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in 1971. The lowest employment rate for

people was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rates for people, men and women have been generally increasing

since early 2012. For the latest time period, October to December 2016, the employment rate for people was 74.6%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.


Fig 3.2: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, January to March

1971 to October to December 2016

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

Fig 3.3 looks in more detail at the employment rate for the last 5 years.

Fig 3.3: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, October to December 2011 to October to December 2016


For October to December 2016, 74.6% of people aged from 16 to 64 were in work, the highest employment rate since comparable records began in 1971.


Looking at employment rates by sex, for October to December 2016:

79.3% of men aged from 16 to 64 were in work, little changed compared

with a year earlier

70.0% of women aged from 16 to 64 were in work, higher than for a year earlier (69.1%) and the highest female employment rate since comparable

records began in 1971 The increase in the employment rate for women is partly due to ongoing changes

to the State Pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65.

For October to December 2016, there were 31.84 million people in work, 37,000

more than for July to September 2016 and 302,000 more than for a year earlier. Fig 3.4 shows how the estimates for full-time and part-time employment by sex

for October to December 2016 compare with those for a year earlier.

Fig 3.4: Changes in people in employment in the UK between October to December 2015 and October to December 2016, seasonally adjusted

Source: Labour Force Survey: Office for National Statistics

Comparing the estimates for type of employment for October to December 2016 with those for a year earlier:

employees increased by 163,000 to 26.82 million (84.3% of all people in work) self-employed people increased by 125,000 to 4.80 million (15.1% of all

people in work) unpaid family workers increased by 30,000 to 129,000 (0.4% of all people in

work); people on government-supported training and employment programmes fell by

15,000 to 86,000 (0.3% of all people in work).


Notes for Employment

1. Employment consists of employees, self-employed people, unpaid family workers and people on government supported training and employment programmes.

2. Unpaid family workers are people who work in a family business who do not

receive a formal wage or salary but benefit from the profits of that business. 3. The Government supported training and employment programmes series does

not include all people on these programmes; it only includes people engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training who are not included

in the employees or self-employed series. People on these programmes NOT engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training are not

included in the employment estimates; they are classified as unemployed or economically inactive.

3.4 Public and Private Sector Employment

What is public and private sector employment? Public sector employment measures the number of people in paid work in the public sector. The public sector comprises central government, local government

and public corporations. Estimates of public sector employment are obtained from information provided by public sector organisations.

Private sector employment is estimated as the difference between total employment, sourced from the Labour Force Survey, and public sector

employment.

Commentary There were 5.44 million people employed in the public sector for September 2016. This was:

12,000 more than for June 2016

10,000 fewer than for a year earlier

The increase in public sector employment between June and September 2016 was

mainly due to more people employed in the National Health Service and in the education sector. Although public sector employment increased between June and

September 2016, it has been generally falling since March 2010. There were 26.32 million people employed in the private sector for September

2016. This was 17,000 fewer than for June 2016 but 352,000 more than for a year earlier.

For September 2016, 17.1% of people in employment worked in the public sector and the remaining 82.9% worked in the private sector.

Fig 3.5 shows public sector employment as a percentage of all people in

employment for the last 5 years.


Fig 3.5: UK public sector employment as a percentage of total UK employment,

seasonally adjusted - September 2011 to September 2016

Source: Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey: Office for National Statistics

Notes: 1. In June 2012 some educational bodies were reclassified to the private sector. 2. In December 2013 Royal Mail plc was reclassified to the private sector.

3. In March 2014 Lloyds Banking Group plc was reclassified to the private sector.

Comparisons of public and private sector employment over time are complicated by several large employers moving between the public and private sectors.

3.5 Actual Hours Worked

What is actual hours worked? Actual hours worked measures the number of hours worked in the economy.

Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.

Commentary Total hours worked per week were 1.02 billion for October to December 2016. This

was 3.2 million more than for July to September 2016 and 7.1 million more than for a year earlier.

The increase in total hours worked per week between July to September 2016 and October to December 2016 reflects an increase in the number of people in work

and a small increase in average hours worked per week.

For October to December 2016: people worked, on average, 32.1 hours per week, up slightly compared with

July to September 2016 but down slightly compared with a year earlier


people working full-time worked, on average, 37.6 hours per week in their

main job, up slightly compared with July to September 2016 but unchanged compared with a year earlier

people working part-time worked, on average, 16.2 hours per week in their

main job, unchanged compared with July to September 2016 but down slightly compared with a year earlier

Fig 3.6 shows total hours worked and the number of people in work, as indices, for the last 5 years.

Fig 3.6: Total hours worked and number of people in work in the UK, seasonally

adjusted, October to December 2011 to October to December 2016

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics.

3.6 Workforce Jobs

What is Workforce Jobs? Workforce jobs measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates

are mainly sourced from employer surveys. Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey, as employment is an estimate of people and some people have more than one job.

Commentary

For September 2016 there were 34.59 million workforce jobs, 58,000 more than for June 2016 and 529,000 more than for a year earlier. Fig 3.7 shows changes in the number of jobs by industrial sector between September 2015 and September

2016.


Fig 3.7: Changes in the number of jobs in the UK between September 2015 and

September 2016, seasonally adjusted

Source: Office for National Statistics

Looking at a longer-term comparison, between June 1978 (when comparable records began) and September 2016: the proportion of jobs accounted for by the manufacturing and mining and

quarrying sectors fell from 26.4% to 7.8% the proportion of jobs accounted for by the services sector increased from

63.2% to 83.7%

3.7 Average Weekly Earnings

What is Average Weekly Earnings? Average Weekly Earnings measures money paid to employees in Great Britain in return for work done, before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates do

not include earnings of self-employed people. Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonuses) and for regular pay (which excludes bonus

payments). Commentary

For December 2016 in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation):

average regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £477 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £466 per week for a year earlier

average total pay (including bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £507 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £498 per week for

a year earlier Between October to December 2015 and October to December 2016, in nominal

terms, regular pay increased by 2.6%, slightly lower than the growth rate


between September to November 2015 and September to November 2016

(2.7%). Between October to December 2015 and October to December 2016, in nominal

terms, total pay increased by 2.6%, lower than the growth rate between September to November 2015 and September to November 2016 (2.8%).

Fig 3.8 compares the annual growth rates for both regular and total pay, in nominal terms, for the last 5 years.

Fig 3.8: Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, October to

December 2011 to October to December 2016

Source: Monthly Wages & Salaries Survey, Office for National Statistics

Looking at longer term movements, since comparable records began in 2000

average total pay for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased from £312 a week in January 2000 to £507 a week in December 2016; an increase of 62.8%. Over the same period the Consumer Prices Index increased by 41.7%.

Between October to December 2015 and October to December 2016 in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) both regular pay and total pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 1.4%.

Notes for Average Weekly Earnings

1. The estimates relate to Great Britain and include salaries but not unearned income, benefits in kind or arrears of pay.

2. As well as pay settlements, the estimates reflect bonuses, changes in the number of paid hours worked and the impact of employees paid at different rates

joining and leaving individual businesses. The estimates also reflect changes in the overall structure of the workforce; for example, fewer low paid jobs in the economy would have an upward effect on the earnings growth rate.


3.8 Unemployment

What is unemployment? Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking

work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

Commentary The proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who are out of

work and seeking work is known as the unemployment rate. As shown at Fig 3.9 (which shows unemployment rates for people, men and women), the lowest

unemployment rate for people recorded since comparable records began in 1971 was 3.4% in late 1973 to early 1974 and the highest rate, 11.9%, was recorded in

1984 during the downturn of the early 1980s. The unemployment rate for people for the latest time period, October to December 2016, was 4.8%. It has not been lower since July to September 2005.

Fig 3.9: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted,

January to March 1971 to October to December 2016


Fig 3.10 looks in more detail at the unemployment rate for the last 5 years.


Fig 3.10: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted,

October to December 2011 to October to December 2016


For October to December 2016:

the unemployment rate for people was 4.8%; it has not been lower since July to September 2005

the unemployment rate for men was 4.9%, it has not been lower since July to September 1979

the unemployment rate for women was 4.6%; it has not been lower since

August to October 2005

For October to December 2016, there were: 1.60 million unemployed people, little changed compared with July to

September 2016 but 97,000 fewer than for a year earlier

877,000 unemployed men, little changed compared with July to September 2016 but 48,000 fewer than for a year earlier

720,000 unemployed women, little changed compared with July to September 2016 but 50,000 fewer than for a year earlier

Looking at unemployment by how long people have been out of work and seeking work, for October to December 2016, there were:

946,000 people who had been unemployed for up to 6 months, little changed compared with a year earlier

247,000 people who had been unemployed for between 6 and 12 months, little

changed compared with a year earlier 404,000 people who had been unemployed for over 12 months, 86,000 fewer

than for a year earlier


3.9 Claimant Count (experimental statistics)

Between January 1971 (when comparable estimates start) and September 1996 it is an estimate of the number of people who would have claimed unemployment related benefits if Jobseeker's Allowance had existed at that time between October

1996 and April 2013 the Claimant Count is a count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) from May 2013 the Claimant Count includes

all out of work Universal Credit claimants as well as all JSA claimants

Ideally only those Universal Credit claimants who are out of work and required to

seek work should be included in the Claimant Count but it is not currently possible to produce estimates on this basis. The Claimant Count therefore currently includes some out of work claimants of Universal Credit who are not required to

look for work; for example, due to illness or disability.

The Claimant Count estimates are currently designated as experimental statistics

because the Universal Credit estimates are still being developed by the Department for Work and Pensions. However the Claimant Count estimates do provide the best available estimates of the number of people claiming

unemployment related benefits in the UK.

The Claimant Count includes people who claim unemployment related benefits but

who do not receive payment. For example some claimants will have had their benefits stopped for a limited period of time by Jobcentre Plus. Some people claim JSA in order to receive National Insurance Credits.

Commentary Fig 3.11 shows the Claimant Count since comparable records began in 1971. It

shows that the lowest number of people claiming unemployment related benefits was 422,600 in December 1973 and the highest figure was 3.09 million in July 1986. For the latest month, January 2017, there were 745,000 people claiming

unemployment related benefits.

Fig 3.11: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted, January 1971 to January 2017

Source: Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions


Looking in more detail at the most recent 5 years, Fig 3.12 shows the Claimant

Count for people from January 2012 to January 2017.

Fig 3.12: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted, Claimant Count for people from January 2012 to January 2017.


For January 2017 there were 745,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This consisted of:

498,100 people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance 246,900 people who were seeking work and claiming Universal Credit

For January 2017 there were 745,000 people claiming unemployment related

benefits. This was: 42,400 fewer than for December 2016 2,800 more than for a year earlier

For January 2017 there were:

465,700 men claiming unemployment related benefits, 30,600 fewer than for December 2016 and 6,600 fewer than for a year earlier

279,300 women claiming unemployment related benefits, 11,900 fewer

compared with December 2016 but 9,300 more than for a year earlier

Comparison between Unemployment and the Claimant Count Unemployment is measured according to internationally accepted guidelines specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Unemployed people in

the UK are:

without a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks, or;

out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two

weeks.


People who meet these criteria are classified as unemployed irrespective of

whether or not they claim Jobseeker’s Allowance or other benefits. The estimates are derived from the Labour Force Survey and are published for three month average time periods.

The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefits principally

for the reason of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). Some JSA claimants will not be classified as unemployed. For example, people in employment working

fewer than 16 hours a week can be eligible to claim JSA depending on their income.

Fig 3.13 shows quarterly movements in unemployment and the Claimant Count for the same 3 month average time periods. The unemployment estimates shown in

this comparison exclude unemployed people aged between 16 and 17 and 65 and over as well as unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education. This provides a more meaningful comparison with the Claimant Count than total

unemployment because people in these population groups are not usually eligible to claim unemployment related benefits.

When 3 month average estimates for the Claimant Count are compared with unemployment estimates for the same time periods and for the same population

groups (people aged from 18 to 64 excluding 18 to 24 year olds in full-time education), between July to September 2016 and October to December 2016:

unemployment fell by 9,000 the Claimant Count increased by 14,000

Fig 3.13: Quarterly changes in Unemployment and the Claimant Count (aged 18 to 64), seasonally adjusted, October to December 2011 to October to December

2016



Notes:

1. Unemployment estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households). The unemployment figures in this chart, exclude unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education.

2. Claimant Count estimates are sourced from administrative data from Jobcentre Plus (part of the Department for Work and Pensions).

3.10 Economic Inactivity

What is economic inactivity? Economically inactive people are not in employment but do not meet the

internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work

within the next two weeks. Commentary

The proportion of people, aged from 16 to 64, not in work and neither seeking nor available to work is known as the economic inactivity rate. Fig 3.14 shows that,

since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for people has been generally falling (although it increased during economic downturns) due to a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women. The economic inactivity

rate for men has been gradually rising.

For October to December 2016: the economic inactivity rate for people was 21.6% the economic inactivity rate for men was 16.5%

the economic inactivity rate for women was 26.6%

Fig 3.14: UK Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, January to March 1971 to October to December 2016


Fig 3.15 looks in more detail at the economic inactivity rate for people since comparable records began in 1971. The economic inactivity rate for people


increased during the downturn of the early 1980s reaching a record high of 25.9%

in 1983. As the economy improved in the late 1980s, it resumed its downward path before the economic downturn of the early 1990s drove it back up again. Following an increase in the economic inactivity rate during the economic

downturn of 2008 to 2009, it again resumed a generally downward path. For the latest time period, October to December 2016, the economic inactivity rate for

people was 21.6%.

Fig 3.15: UK Economic inactivity rate (people aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, January to March 1971 to October to December 2016


For October to December 2016, there were 8.86 million people aged from 16 to 64

not in work and neither seeking nor available to work (known as economically inactive). This was 31,000 fewer than for July to September 2016 and 61,000

fewer than for a year earlier. Looking in more detail at the 8.86 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were

economically inactive for October to December 2016, the 2 largest categories were students and people looking after the family or home (each of which accounted for

around a quarter of the total): there were 2.29 million people who were not looking for work because they

were studying, 14,000 more than for a year earlier there were 2.21 million people (of which 1.96 million were women) who were

not looking for work because they were looking after the family or home, 38,000 fewer than for a year earlier

The third and fourth largest categories were long-term sick (22.1% of the total) and retired (13.3% of the total):

there were 1.96 million people who were not looking for work due to long-term sickness, 113,000 fewer than for a year earlier

there were 1.18 million people who were not looking for work because they

had retired, 21,000 more than for a year earlier


As shown at Fig 3.16, which shows the 4 largest categories of economic inactivity

for the last 5 years, the number of people younger than 65 in the retired category has been generally falling since late 2011. This is largely due to ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the

ages of 60 and 65.

Fig 3.16: Economic inactivity by main category in the UK (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, October to December 2011 to October to December 2016


3.11 Young People in the Labour Market

It is a common misconception that all people in full-time education are classified as economically inactive. This is not the case as people in full-time education are

included in the employment estimates if they have a part-time job and are included in the unemployment estimates if they are seeking part-time work.

Commentary For October to December 2016, for people aged from 16 to 24, there were:

3.95 million people in work (including 928,000 full-time students with part-

time jobs)

568,000 unemployed people (including 199,000 full-time students looking for part-time work)

2.65 million economically inactive people, most of whom (2.01 million) were full-time students


Fig 3.17: Young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour market for October to

December 2016, seasonally adjusted


Fig 3.18 shows how the latest estimates, for October to December 2016, for

employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for people aged from 16 to 24 compare with the previous quarter (July to September 2016) and the previous year (October to December 2015).

Fig 3.18: Changes in the number of young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour

market, seasonally adjusted


For October to December 2016, the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 12.6%, lower than for a year earlier (13.6%). It has not been lower since May to

July 2005.


The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 has been consistently higher

than that for older age groups. Since comparable records began in 1992:

the lowest youth unemployment rate was 11.6% for March to May 2001

the highest youth unemployment rate was 22.5% for late 2011

Between March to May 1992 (when comparable records began) and October to December 2016 the proportion of people aged from 16 to 24 who were in full-time education increased substantially from 26.2% to 43.8%. This increase in the

number of young people going into full-time education has reduced the size of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to

work) and therefore increased the unemployment rate (because the unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who

are unemployed). 3.12 Redundancies

What are redundancies?

The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who have been made redundant or have taken voluntary redundancy.

Commentary For October to December 2016, 121,000 people had become redundant in the 3

months before the Labour Force Survey interviews. This was little changed compared with July to September 2016 but 23,000 more than for a year earlier.

Fig 3.19 shows the number of redundancies since comparable records began in 1995.

Fig 3.19: Number of redundancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted, March to May

1995 to October to December 2016



3.13 Vacancies

What are vacancies? Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to

recruit outside their business or organisation.

Commentary There were 751,000 job vacancies for the 3 months to January 2017. This was:

9,000 fewer than for August to October 2016

13,000 fewer than for a year earlier

Fig 3.20 shows the number of job vacancies since comparable records began in 2001.

Fig 3.20: Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted, April to June 2001 to November to January 2017

Source: Vacancy Survey, Office for National Statistics

There were 661,000 job vacancies in the services sectors for the 3 months to January 2017, accounting for 88.0% of all vacancies. Looking at services in more

detail, the sectors with the largest number of job vacancies were wholesaling, retailing and repair of motor vehicles (138,000) and human health and social work (117,000).

Notes:

1. The estimates exclude the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.

3.14 Main Out of Work Benefits

What are main out of work benefits? Main out of work benefits includes claimants of unemployment related benefits and Employment and Support Allowance and other incapacity benefits. It also

includes claimants of Income Support and Pension Credit. While most people


claiming these benefits are out of work a small number are in employment. These

estimates exclude claimants in Northern Ireland. The estimates are not seasonally adjusted and it is therefore best practice to

compare the estimates for November 2015 with those for a year earlier rather than with those for August 2015.

Commentary For August 2016:

there were 3.70 million people claiming main out of work benefits, 92,300 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since comparable records began

in 1999 9.2% of the population aged from 16 to 64 were claiming main out of work

benefits, down from 9.5% for a year earlier and the lowest since comparable records began in 1999

Fig 3.21 shows, for the last 5 years, the proportion of the population aged from 16

to 64 claiming main out of work benefits.

Fig 3.21: Proportion of Great Britain population (aged 16 to 64) claiming main out of work benefits, August 2011 to August 2016



Prepared by: Economic Development and Culture Team.

15 February 2017.

If you would like this information

in another format please contact:

Cornwall Council Economic Development and Culture,

Level 5, Zone A, Pydar House,

Pydar Street, Truro, TR1 1XU.

www.cornwall.gov.uk

Telephone: 0300 1234 100

Email: [email protected]

http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/

mailto:[email protected]

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