labour force potential and its realization: case of latvia
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LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE OF LATVIA. Inara Kantane, Inta Krumina. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
1
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
Inara Kantane, Inta Krumina
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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The prezentation outlines analyses of the labour force potential and efficiency in Latvia, and determines factors, which influence labour force amount and their implications on the labour force marked changes in the future.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Data:
EUROSTAT (Population Projections),
Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (Labour Force Surveys, Life Tables),
EU Structural Fund National Programme’s ‘Labour Market Survey’ (Sample Survey of Employees)
Method: Working Life Tables
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Potential labour force is made up of all those people aged between fifteen years and sixty five years, who are not excluded from the definition of the potential labour force for reasons - being in prison, full time student etc.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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.
Size of population, age and structure
Economicaly active life expectany and losses of the labour force potential due to the death
Loses of the labour force potential due to the illness and invalidity
Potential of the labour force in correlation with the profession and occupation, and correlation with the last obtained eductaion
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Forecasted old-age dependency ratio,2060, %
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
EU (27 countries)
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
Romania
Latvia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Italy
Germany
Spain
Malta
Hungary
Greece
Estonia
Portugal
Austria
Finland
Switzerland
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
France
Cyprus
Norway
Ireland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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The indicator old-age dependency ratio is defined as the number of persons aged 65 and over expressed as a percentage of the number of persons aged between 15 and 64.
World population is aging. The population projections for the period 1008-2060 come from a report issued by Eurostat, the official Statistical Office of the European Communities shows that EU27 will become older thorought the projection period due in particularly persistently low fertility and an increasing number of survivors to higher ages.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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This aging process would occur in all Member States.
The aging of the population has also affected Latvia – there is a decrease of the labour force potential versus the total size of the potential.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Analysis of the survey proves that in 2060 old-age dependency ratio in Latvia would be way above the average EU levels, i.e.for one employed person in the age group from 15-64 years. In other words, there would be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Number of population by age group in Latvia, 2005-2051
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
0-14
15-64
65-7475+
The analysis show that in 2051 in Latvia 25% of the population will be younger than 25 years, in 2007 respective figure is 22 years – increase by 3 years.
One fourth of population will be older than 65 years, increase compared with 2007 is estimated by 8 years.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Share of population by age group in Latvia, 2005-2051
0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
0-14
15-64
65-74
75+
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Gross years of working life or gross working life expectancy in the begining of the age (GWLE) serves as a measure of the aggregate level of age-specific economic activity rates and therefore is independent from the population’s age structure.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Net years of working life or net working life expectancyin the begining of the age (NWLE), unlike that of gross years, takes into account both age specific economic activity and mortality.
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Comparison of gross and net years of working life establishes probable losses from the economically active population due to mortality in years (GWLE- NWLE)and in percent (losses divided by gross years of working life).
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economically active and inactive stationary population
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Economically active Economically inactiveAge
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Gross and net working life expectancy in the begining for age 0, males in Latvia
0
10
20
30
40
50
1989 1995 2000 2004 2006 2007
NWLE GWLE- NWLE
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Gross and net working life expectancy in the begining for age 0, females in Latvia
05
1015202530354045
1989 1995 2000 2004 2006 2007
NWLE GWLE- NWLE
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Gross years of working life expectancy in Latvia by age, 2007
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5 67,5
Males Females
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Net years of working life expectancy in Latvia by age, 2007
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5 67,5
Males Females
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Stationary population and active population, by sex and age group, 2007
600000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 600000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
Males Females
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Population and economically active population, by sex and
age group, 2007
100000 50000 0 50000 100000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
Males Females
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economically active population by sex and age group, 2007
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
17,5 22,5 27,5 32,5 37,5 42,5 47,5 52,5 57,5 62,5
Males Females
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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‘Sample Survey of Employees” for population in the age between 15 and 75 years
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Economically active population by age and employment status
Employees Employers Persons who looked for a job
Self-employed Working-retired
Employment status
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ag
e 9311 020
10 056
3 5143 656828
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economically active population by age, employment status and sex
Employees Employers Persons who looked
for a job
Self-employed
Working-retired
Employment status
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ag
e
10 056
7 968
3 895
1 753
8289311 020
3 5143 656
SexMale
Female
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Economically active persons by employment status and by
the occupation relation to the last education (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employees Employers Persons w holooked for a job
Self-employed Working-retired
Related Not related
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economically active males by employment status and by
the occupation relation to the last education (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employees Employers Persons w holooked for a job
Self-employed Working-retired
Related Not related
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economically active females by employment status and by
the occupation relation to the last education (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employees Employers Persons w holooked for a job
Self-employed Working-retired
Related Not related
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
OF LATVIA
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Economicaly active population by education qualification and by the occupation relation to the last education, %
0%
10%20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
80%90%
100%
Highereducation
Vocationaleducation andprofessionalsecondaryeducation
Generaleducation
Basic education Less than basiceducation
Related Not related
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Economically active population by the sector and by the occupation relation to the last education, %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Public sector Nongovernmentorganization
Private sector
Related Not related
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Conclusions and suggestion
To decrease the death rates for the labour in the economically active age, especially for the man in the age 40-60 years.
Calculation of the Working life tables for the population in Latvia, in order to evaluate the losses of labour force potential due to the illnesses would prove complete and temporarily losses in the working potential
To increase the maximally possible work activities for retired population and rehabilitated gandicaped population
LABOUR FORCE POTENTIAL AND ITS REALIZATION: CASE
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Education and professional education in order to increase the adjustment possibilities for population in the labour market
Taxation, especially for support to handicapped labour