l12 the rise of the machine
TRANSCRIPT
“I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and won’t last out the year.”
Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
69 years ago
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
-‐ Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
38 years ago
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
-‐ Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
HistoryComputing is time consuming and error prone
Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies
Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms
Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
Efforts to speed calculations started early
Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations
The Counting Business
The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625
Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b))
Much quicker than manual calculation
The Counting Business
Early Machines
Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635)
German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany
Built a calculating machine in 1620s
Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler 1623 and 24
Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)
French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher
Built an adding machine in1642-44
Tried to commercialise the machine but labor was too cheap
Early Machines
Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716)
German mathematician and philosopher
Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide
Early Machines
History
Workmanship for building complex machines lacked
In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing
Calculations were done by hand
Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors
Think about this How long does it take to compute 707 decimal places of PI?
3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102701938521105559644622948954930381964428810975665933446128475648233786783165271201909145648566923460348610454326648213393607260249141273724587006606315588174881520920962829254091715364367892590360011330530548820466521384146951941511609433057270365759591953092186117381932611793105118548074462379962749567351885752724891227938183011949129833673362440656643086021394946395224737190702179860943702770539217176293176752384674818467669405132000568127145263560827785771342757789609173637178721468440901224953430146549585371050792279689258923
Think about this The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity
Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future?
Charles Babbage(1791 – 1871)
Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer
Wanted to remove the inevitablehuman errors from computing
Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Designed the Difference Engine
Machine to compute polynomials
Got grants but efforts were slow
Lack of workmanship of the time delayed the project
Worked stopped 1833
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam
Analytical engine
Programmable machine – with primitive programming languageInput was in punched cardsRun by steam
Augusta Ada King (1815-1852) Countess of Lovelace
A Programmable Machine - General purpose computer
Contained mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas
The first programmer
The Cash RegisterOne of the first calculating machines
Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff
“The Incorruptible Cashier”
National Cash Register Company – NCR
One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr.
Watson would later leave for CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company
Tabulating Machines
In the US need for data processing was growingOne application was census taking
US population grew from 17 million in 1840 to 50 million in 1880It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to produce the 1880 census
Tabulating Machines
Source: Tabulating machineHerman Hollerith
Tabulating Machine Company – TMC
US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census
Tabulating Machines with punched cards
Successfully finished in 2,5 yearswith one-third less cost (claimed)
Tabulating Machines
Source: Tabulating machineHerman Hollerith
Used punched cardsHollerith cards were in use until 1960s
Tabulating MachinesThe Business of Data Processing
Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited
CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM
Electric Computing
Foundation of electric computing was laid early
Mechanical computers were not considered practical
Electricity is widespread
Threat of war is looming in the 1930sGovernments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking
Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment
Source: Engines that Move Markets
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based on relay switches in 1936 – 1944
Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül
Never received any official support from war-time Germany unlike the Allies
Early Work
P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END
Source: Konrad Zuse
Bletchley Park
Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA
Alan Turing
Source: Alan Turing, COLOSSUS, Enigma
English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer
Headed the team at Bletchley Park Worked on the algorithms to break the ENIGMA code
Bombe Computer based on heuristics
Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the firstelectronic computer
Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
War Machines
Source: COLOSSUS
COLOSSUS
Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II
Designed by Alan Turing
Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces no bigger than a man's hand‘
War Machines
Source: EINIAC
ENIAC
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer
Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes
Designed by John Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert
The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955
John von Neumann
John von Neumann, Von Neumann architecture
Hungarian mathematician
Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects
Publishes paper - or a memo, On computer design, 1945
Came to be know as Von Neumann architecture
UNIVAC I
Source: Model of UNIVAC I, c. 1954. Picture from Smithsonian Institution
Source: UNIVAC I
Commercial Computer
5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock
Occupied more than 35.5 m²of floor space
The addition time was 525 microseconds
Transistor
Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals
Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster
Tyranny of Numbers
Source: Tyranny of Numbers, Transistor Computer
Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors
Problem was that as the number of components increased, wiring them together became a problem
Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
Source: Integrated circuit
Introduced in 1958 by two inventors
Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments
Transistors could be wired together in practical way
Mass manufacturing of ICs
Competition EmergesThe Computer Market is born
The main application is data processing• Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on
IBM enters the computer businessTomas Watson, Jr. launchedIBM System/360 in 1964
Systematically replaced data processing machineswith mainframe computers
Automation
Automation – Computers begin to disrupt
Start to replace jobs
Banks and insurance companies were early adopters
Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute
Automation
Source: Desk Set (from IMDB)
Hollywood took notice
Desk Set from 1957 with Spencer Tracey and Katherine Hepburn
Mainframes
IBM 704
IBM System/360
Large computers in data centres
Batch operationsCritical applicationsFinancial transaction processing
Time-sharingComputers were expensive to purchase and maintain
To make it efficient required multiple usersLarge data centres
Utility Computing
Time-sharing of expensive equipment
MinicomputersCost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s
Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes
Birth of the Minicomputers
Two major client groups: academic community and the military
MinicomputersDigital Equipment Corporation
Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960
The PDP-8 was the first successful commercial minicomputer – 1965
Used integrated circuits
Time-sharing allowed multiple users to use the machines at the same time
The Disruptive Innovation Theory
Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM
RPV
IBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low-performance mini computers
Q9The early computers were all about building the right hardware – this ignored what important element?