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1 1 1 1 2 1 2 (IPCC) AR4 GCM A1B B1 A2… GCM GCM 25 Ensemble worse case 1980~1999 (2020-2039) (2080-2099) GCM MRI 20km*20km 60% 80% A1B MRI GCM MRI (IPCC) Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model, AOGCM (GCM) IPCC AR4 150-300 (General Circulation Model GCM) GCM (>104km) GCM ( TCCIP) (99 ) TCCIP IPCC GCM 25 25 GCM (CDF, cumulative distribution function) (bias correction) 75 TCCIP A1B B1 A2 ( ) 1980~1999 ( ) 2020~2039 2080~2099 ) % ( C) GCM GCM (Multi-Model Ensemble) A1B B1 A2 GCM Ensemble MRI 20km*20km 451

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Page 1: l u Û â c | @þ x â ° 1photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd01conf/dissertation/... · 2014-04-02 · U2000 Ð õ r h ) ... dex.html ± ¬ 4 p ÷ ± ± ÿ þ x " 4Aphrodite (Asia

1 1 1 1 2 1 2

(IPCC) AR4 GCMA1B B1 A2… GCM

GCM 25Ensemble

worse case1980~1999

(2020-2039) (2080-2099)GCM MRI 20km*20km

60% 80%A1B MRI

GCM MRI

(IPCC)

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model, AOGCM

(GCM)IPCC AR4 150-300

(General Circulation Model GCM)

GCM (>104km)

GCM

( TCCIP) (99)

TCCIP IPCC

GCM 25 25

GCM(CDF, cumulative distribution function)

(bias correction) 75

TCCIP A1B B1 A2

( ) 1980~1999( )

2020~2039 2080~2099) %

( C) GCMGCM

(Multi-Model Ensemble)A1B B1

A2 GCMEnsemble

MRI 20km*20km

451

Page 2: l u Û â c | @þ x â ° 1photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd01conf/dissertation/... · 2014-04-02 · U2000 Ð õ r h ) ... dex.html ± ¬ 4 p ÷ ± ± ÿ þ x " 4Aphrodite (Asia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

(

%)

- 191

Worse case Ensemble

7 82 3 44 5 6 9

2.1 IPCC AR4 GCM 25

CN_BCC_CM1TCCIP GCM

24 GCMGCM

1999 2000 402000

100http://www.ipcc-data.org/gcm/monthly/SRES_AR4/in

dex.html Aphrodite

(Asia Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources)

mm /day (60˚E~150˚E ; 15˚S~55˚N)

1951-2007 0.25˚×0.25˚CRU (Climate Research Unit)

1901-2002 0.5˚×0.5˚ ˚C60˚E~150˚E

0˚N~55˚N 1961-2000 GCM

(Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) (Meteorological Research Institute, MRI)

( MRI-JMA ) MRI-JMA

20km*20kmGCM 20

2.2

Support Vector Machine (SVM) Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)Climate-Wizard Bias Correction Statistical Downscaling(BCSD).( 2008; 2009.)

TCCIP Bias Correction Statistical Downscaling BCSD

(Post-Process) BCSD

Wood et al. (2002), Wood et al. (2004), and Maurer (2007)

IPCC AR4

(25 x 25 )IPCC AR4

75

2.3 TCCIP

A1B B1 A2 B1A2

A1B

( Nakicenovic, 2000 ) 1980~1999( ) 2020~2039

2080~2099 )% (

C) TCCIP IPCC AR4 24 GCM

(Multi-Model Ensemble)GCM

GCM Ensemble

10

TCCIP

GCM

(1SD)(Ensemble mean)

5~10 11~4

1

1

452

Page 3: l u Û â c | @þ x â ° 1photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd01conf/dissertation/... · 2014-04-02 · U2000 Ð õ r h ) ... dex.html ± ¬ 4 p ÷ ± ± ÿ þ x " 4Aphrodite (Asia

2.4

2020~2039 2080 209925km x 25km Aphrodite

1980 1999A1B B1 A2

Ensemble Worse case

IPCC (IPCC, 2007)

( 2009) ( 2010) 1980

1999 ( 2020 2039) ( 2080 2099 )

(A1B B1 A2) Ensemble MRI

3.1

1 Ensemble mean BCSD 24 GCM

Ensemble mean 2 75 A1B B1 A2

B115

3 Ensemble mean20

4 Ensemble

7 9 A1BA1B

B1

(2) Worse case 24GCM

56

Ensemble

A1B 7Worse case

+40 -30%

-40 +60%Ensemble

3.2 MRI

(JMA) MRI 20km

8

4 5 9 11 121 10

5 11

3.3 (1) Ensemble mean

9 10Ensemble mean Aphrodite

5

(2) Worse case

11 12Worse case Aphrodite

5

GCM

MRIA1B B1

MRIGCM

MRI(1~3 ) (6~8

)

453

Page 4: l u Û â c | @þ x â ° 1photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd01conf/dissertation/... · 2014-04-02 · U2000 Ð õ r h ) ... dex.html ± ¬ 4 p ÷ ± ± ÿ þ x " 4Aphrodite (Asia

Ensemble mean+40

-30% -40+60%

GCM

Aphrodite

TCCIP

IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: The Physical Science

Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Fr

ontMatter.pdf Maurer, E. P. 2007. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of

climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Climatic Change

82(3): 309-325. Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, et al., 2000. Special report

on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (US), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US).

Wood, A. W., E. P. Maurer, A. Kumar, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2002. Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern US. J. Geophys. Res 107(D20): 4429.

Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D.P.Lettenmaier, 2004. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change 62(1): 189-216.

(2009). " ". , , .

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2. Ensemble 3 Ensemble

454

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4 Ensemble

5 6

455

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7

8MRI

456

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9 ensemble Aphrodite 10 ensemble Aphrodite

11 Aphrodite 12 Aphrodite

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