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1 1 1 1 2 1 2
(IPCC) AR4 GCMA1B B1 A2… GCM
GCM 25Ensemble
worse case1980~1999
(2020-2039) (2080-2099)GCM MRI 20km*20km
60% 80%A1B MRI
GCM MRI
(IPCC)
Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model, AOGCM
(GCM)IPCC AR4 150-300
(General Circulation Model GCM)
GCM (>104km)
GCM
( TCCIP) (99)
TCCIP IPCC
GCM 25 25
GCM(CDF, cumulative distribution function)
(bias correction) 75
TCCIP A1B B1 A2
( ) 1980~1999( )
2020~2039 2080~2099) %
( C) GCMGCM
(Multi-Model Ensemble)A1B B1
A2 GCMEnsemble
MRI 20km*20km
451
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-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
(
%)
- 191
Worse case Ensemble
7 82 3 44 5 6 9
2.1 IPCC AR4 GCM 25
CN_BCC_CM1TCCIP GCM
24 GCMGCM
1999 2000 402000
100http://www.ipcc-data.org/gcm/monthly/SRES_AR4/in
dex.html Aphrodite
(Asia Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources)
mm /day (60˚E~150˚E ; 15˚S~55˚N)
1951-2007 0.25˚×0.25˚CRU (Climate Research Unit)
1901-2002 0.5˚×0.5˚ ˚C60˚E~150˚E
0˚N~55˚N 1961-2000 GCM
(Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) (Meteorological Research Institute, MRI)
( MRI-JMA ) MRI-JMA
20km*20kmGCM 20
2.2
Support Vector Machine (SVM) Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)Climate-Wizard Bias Correction Statistical Downscaling(BCSD).( 2008; 2009.)
TCCIP Bias Correction Statistical Downscaling BCSD
(Post-Process) BCSD
Wood et al. (2002), Wood et al. (2004), and Maurer (2007)
IPCC AR4
(25 x 25 )IPCC AR4
75
2.3 TCCIP
A1B B1 A2 B1A2
A1B
( Nakicenovic, 2000 ) 1980~1999( ) 2020~2039
2080~2099 )% (
C) TCCIP IPCC AR4 24 GCM
(Multi-Model Ensemble)GCM
GCM Ensemble
10
TCCIP
GCM
(1SD)(Ensemble mean)
5~10 11~4
1
1
452
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2.4
2020~2039 2080 209925km x 25km Aphrodite
1980 1999A1B B1 A2
Ensemble Worse case
IPCC (IPCC, 2007)
( 2009) ( 2010) 1980
1999 ( 2020 2039) ( 2080 2099 )
(A1B B1 A2) Ensemble MRI
3.1
1 Ensemble mean BCSD 24 GCM
Ensemble mean 2 75 A1B B1 A2
B115
3 Ensemble mean20
4 Ensemble
7 9 A1BA1B
B1
(2) Worse case 24GCM
56
Ensemble
A1B 7Worse case
+40 -30%
-40 +60%Ensemble
3.2 MRI
(JMA) MRI 20km
8
4 5 9 11 121 10
5 11
3.3 (1) Ensemble mean
9 10Ensemble mean Aphrodite
5
(2) Worse case
11 12Worse case Aphrodite
5
GCM
MRIA1B B1
MRIGCM
MRI(1~3 ) (6~8
)
453
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Ensemble mean+40
-30% -40+60%
GCM
Aphrodite
TCCIP
IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Fr
ontMatter.pdf Maurer, E. P. 2007. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of
climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Climatic Change
82(3): 309-325. Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, et al., 2000. Special report
on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (US), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US).
Wood, A. W., E. P. Maurer, A. Kumar, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2002. Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern US. J. Geophys. Res 107(D20): 4429.
Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D.P.Lettenmaier, 2004. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change 62(1): 189-216.
(2009). " ". , , .
(2010). "1 ", , :
. (2009). " -
- , (II).", .
2008 ” ”
2. Ensemble 3 Ensemble
454
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4 Ensemble
5 6
455
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7
8MRI
456
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9 ensemble Aphrodite 10 ensemble Aphrodite
11 Aphrodite 12 Aphrodite
457