l ongitudinal d ata and h igher e ducation a ccountability tom schenk jr., consultant
TRANSCRIPT
LONGITUDINAL DATA ANDHIGHER EDUCATION ACCOUNTABILITY
Tom Schenk Jr., Consultant
National StudentClearinghouse
StudentRecords
StudentCourses
StudentAwards
Employee
Records
FacultyPositions
UnemploymentInsurance
Iowa College Student
Aid Commission
AS-28 [Program Information]
K-12[Project EASIER][Iowa Testing Services][CTE Plus]
PROJECT LEAD THE WAYEVALUATION
4 11th Grade ITED: Math
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 950%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
NonparticipantsAverage = 65
ParticipantsAverage = 79
5 11th Grade ITED: Science
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 950%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
6 Project Lead The Way
7 Project Lead The Way
8 Selection Bias
Socio-demographic Background
Cognitive ability
School-level factors}
9 Propensity Score Matching
y = φ(x1,…,xn)
Binary outcome
Logit Function
10
Propensity Bins
0% - 25% 25.1% - 50% 50.1% - 75% 75.1% - 100%
11
Subsequent Analysis
z = β1x1,…, βnxn, βyy
Outcome Propensity Bins
12
Enrollment by Gender
84%
16%
49%50%
Participants
NonparticipantsFemale Male
13
Percentage of Whites by Cohort
2008 2009 2010 20110.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%Participants
Nonpartici-pants
14
8th Grade ITBS: Math
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 950%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
NonparticipantsAverage = 58
ParticipantsAverage = 80
15
8th Grade ITBS: Science
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
NonparticipantsAverage = 61
ParticipantsAverage = 79
16
Evidence of Selection Bias
Participants are more likely to be male, by a wide margin.
Participation by gender holds constant around 90 percent.
Students are in the 80th percentile in math and science.
17
LABOR SUPPLY
18 Wages for employees in most sectors.
Provided on a quarterly basis.
Includes multiple jobs.
Excludes workers in some sectors (e.g., military).
Does not include hourly wages or full-time status.
Only includes employees within Iowa.
Unemployment Insurance
19
Matching Wage Data
• Educational data
MIS
20
Human Capital Theory
WagesCompleters
Direct Costs
Time
Leavers
21
Returns on Investment
Σ yi - xi (1+r)t
t=1
T
- C
22
Returns on Investment
Track wages over a set period of time, T.
Find the difference between wages between completers and leavers on the student level.
Find the cost of tuition.
If you assert an interest rate, r, then solve to find Net Present Value.
If the interest rate if left unknown, then solve to find the Internal Rate of Return.
23
Methodology
Assemble a cohort of graduates (completers) and those who left college without a degree (leavers).
Stagger the cohorts so completers are finishing their final year in college as leavers are in their first year in the workforce.
Exclude students who are found in any postsecondary institution.
Estimate the tuition expenses for completers in their final year.
Cohorts from 2002 and 2006.
24
Wages by Year
Net Present Value for Completers was $3,131.Internal Rate of Return was 6 percent.
25
Returns by ClusterN
PV
26
Returns by Select Clusters
28
In-state Retention Rate
In-stateOut-of-state
Working
School
WorkingSchool
HIGHER EDUCATIONACCOUNTABILITY
31
Slightly over 52 percent of first-time, full-time students entering in 2006 either transferred or graduated within three years (by 2008).
Success Rate
2005 20060%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
32
33
The three year graduation rate for first-time, full-time students rose slightly to 39.1 percent for the 2006 cohort. The graduation rate has fluctuated, but stayed ahead of the national graduation rate (33 percent).
Graduation Rate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
34
Time-to-degree rose slightly to 2.4 years for the 2004 cohort from 2.3 years.
Time to Degree
2003
2004
0 1 2
35
Accountability Systems
Measuring the effectiveness of institutions through student outcomes.
Desirable qualities of accountability measures:1. Specifically measures the effectiveness of the institution,
not other factors.2. Measures improvement.3. Flexible to accommodate a variety of outcomes.
The current traditional measures cannot capture these elements.
36
Accountability Systems
Issues with graduation/success rate:1. Denominator debate.2. Selection bias.3. Positive feedback mechanism.
Solutions: Use the same methods that assist with Project Lead The Way evaluations.
37
50%
Estimating Success
50%
50%
50%
38
Simulated Example
OBTAININGDATA
40
Obtaining Data
Contact your major professor and/or the Department of Education.
Education data can be obtained from the Department of Education, other data (e.g., UI records) will need special permission.
Data is distributed de-identified and must be returned or destroyed at the completion of the research study.
Obtaining data is relatively low-cost, nominal fee (<$100) for a secure flash drive.
Tom Schenk Jr.Consultant – Institutional Effectiveness &
AccountabilityIowa Department of EducationPhone: 515-281-3753E-mail: [email protected]