Kodi MonroeSea Grant Weather & Climate Extension Agent

National Severe Storms LaboratoryNorman, OK

CI-FLOW ProjectCoastal & Inland Flooding Observation and Warning

Origin of the CI-FLOW ProjectInitiated in response to Hurricanes Dennis & Floyd in Sep 1999• 20-25 in of rain over 10 days• River crests up to 24 ft above flood

stage• Storm surge as high as 10 ftImpacts• 52 lives lost in North Carolina• Homes: 7,000 destroyed; 17,000

uninhabitable; 56,000 damaged• 30,000 hogs, 700,000 turkeys, &

2.4 million chickens drowned• Warnings that tap water may

contain high levels of fecal coliform bacteria

History of the CI-FLOW Project

2000: NOAA OAR & National Sea Grant Meeting• Increase collaboration between Sea Grant

Extension Network & OAR research labs• Established Inland FLood Warning (IFLOW)

Project to force OU hydrologic model with NSSL precipitation estimates

National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant

S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

History of the CI-FLOW Project

2001: NCSU joins IFLOW• Coupled hydrologic model forced with NSSL precipitation

estimates to Coastal & Estuary Model & Environmental Prediction System (CEMEPS)

2006: IFLOW becomes CI-FLOW• Sea Grant funds Weather & Climate Extension Agent position

at NSSL• NWS hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) implemented

National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant

S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

History of the CI-FLOW Project

2008: CI-FLOW expands• NOAA SECART funds nowCOAST portal• OU & UNC researchers join CI-FLOW to include ADvanced

CIRCulation model + unstructured Simulating WAves Nearshore model

2010: Hurricane Earl is first real-time test of CI-FLOW• Established relationship with EPA2011: Hurricane Irene is first robust test of CI-FLOW

National Sea Grant OfficeNorth Carolina Sea Grant

S.C. Sea Grant ConsortiumTexas Sea Grant

CI-FLOW Partners

Increasing Hydrologic Forecasting Capabilities In Coastal Watersheds

Current NWS Forecast Points CI-FLOW Forecast Points

CI-FLOW PrecipitationPast rainfall: NSSL’s Next Generation QPE (Q2)• Best practices of OHD’s Multi-

sensor QPE (MPE) & NSSL’s National Mosaic & Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ)

• Gauge-adjusted 1-hour accumulation

• Uncorrected QPE available every 5 min at 1-km resolution

Future rainfall: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s QPF• 6-hour accumulation

http://nmq.ou.edu

CI-FLOW Hydrologic Modeling• Tar-Pamlico & Neuse river basins• Hydrology Laboratory –

Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) by NWS

• Hybrid conceptual-physical distributed watershed model:– Sacramento Soil Moisture

Accounting model (SAC-SMA)– Kinematic Wave Model for routing– 4-km resolution– 19 parameters; 6 state variables

CI-FLOW Hydrologic Model Ensemble

1. “Event-based” parameter set (Isabel) x 16 rainfall multipliers (0.8-1.2, uniformly distributed)

2. “Automatic” parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers3. Multiple basin scale parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers4. A-priori model (uncalibrated) x 5 rainfall multiplier x 16

channel routing perturbations = 80

Total Number of Members = 16x3 + 80 = 128

• Runs every 6 hours with rainfall forcing from NMQ/Q2 observations for past & HPC QPFs for future times

CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore

• Asymmetric Vortex Wind Model– Uses official track, forward speed, radius to maximum winds,

central pressure & other information from NHC advisories• 2-D ADCIRC

– Tides & tidal potential– River input provided by HL-RDHM at 4 hand-off points– Wind waves– Wetting/drying of elements

• SWAN: Spectral wave model– Waves in all 360 degrees– Wave action balance equation with sources/sinks

CI-FLOW Storm Surge ModelADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore

• Unstructured finite element grid

• High resolution for the Tar & Neuse Rivers, Outer Banks, & Pamlico Sound (down to 30 – 60 m)

• Dynamic coupling between ADCIRC & SWAN– Predictions of total water

level, maximum inundation, wave height, wave period, & tides

Distribution of InformationNSSL Password-protected Website – mimics NWS AHPS

Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessment

http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera_nc/cera_nc.cgi

Distribution of InformationCoastal Environmental Risks Assessment

Distribution of InformationGoogle Earth kmz files – available via OPeNDAP

Distribution of InformationNOAA nowCOAST

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ciflow/

CI-FLOW User Engagement

Primary Users• Raleigh, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office• Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS Weather Forecast

Office• NWS Southeast River Forecast CenterSecondary Users (briefed by NWS forecasters)• Local Emergency Managers (communities & universities)• State Emergency Management

– North Carolina & Virginia– NC Central & Eastern Branches

• North Carolina Department of Transportation

Future CI-FLOW Work

• Account for rainfall over ADCIRC domain• Water quality modeling• Expand to other regions: South Carolina,

Texas, Louisiana

Kodi Nemunaitis-MonroeKodi.Nemunaitis@noaa.govhttp://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow/