Knowledge for development under climate change

Habiba Gitay

World Bank Institute

• A brief overview of climate change and risks to development

• knowledge and capacity

For publications and news on the latest climate change initiativesLook for “climate change” on www.worldbank.org includes Development Outreach and Environment Matters

Earth systems

• Interacting components between land, ocean and atmosphere

Importance of greenhouse gases

• Greenhouse gases keep the earth “habitable”

Increases in major greenhouse gases

Past atmospheric concentrations of CO2

Concentration of carbon dioxide(CO2) in the atmosphere has remained within tight bounds

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)

Vostok Record

IPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome Record

Mauna Loa Record

Current

Projected(2100)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000

Observed changes Average surface temperature

Sea level rise and storm

surges

Melting Sea Ice / Glaciers / Permafrost

Increased precipitation e.g. in the northern temperate areas

Extreme events – increased frequency of droughts, floods

Observed impacts

Marine and coastal

systems -

mangroves, coral

reefs, coastal

fisheries, erosion of

coastlines

Human societies– floods, droughts, sea level rise/storm surges affected

infrastructure and livelihoods; increased water scarcity, malnutrition, vector

and water borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever, cholera, diarrhoea)

Observed impacts

Terrestrial systems

–poleward and

upward migration of

species/ecosystems;

increase in frequency

and intensity of pest

and disease

outbreaks (e.g. in

forests), wildfires.

Changes in growing

seasons, increased in

crops in northern

temperate areas,

decrease in many

parts of Africa

Impacts lends

urgency … risk

losing

developmental

gains

Inertia and lifetime of GHGs

Recent Observations Near the top or above IPCC projections

Rahmstorf et al Science 2007

Managing climate risk

• Impacts and ability to manage them depends on– Geographical location and exposure

• Present and historical climate• Condition of natural resources (e.g. fresh water supplies,

fishery, forests, agricultural production)

– Sensitivity• Are the areas and populations near their “climatic limit”

– Socioeconomic, institutional factors• Education• Technical and financial capacity• Political will

Impacts likely to get worse

A Global Deal for action

• Climate Change “fundamental failure of markets”• Atmosphere suffers from “tragedy of the

commons”• Action has to be effective, economically efficient

and equitable and be “global”

• Includes technology development and rapid sharing of technology and knowledge

• Finances for both adaptation and for low carbon economies

Modified from Stern & Noble 2007

Bali Action Plan part of United Nations Framework on Climate Change negotiations

Mitigation Mitigation AdaptationAdaptation

Technology Development and Transfer

Technology Development and Transfer

Resource Provision:

Funding and Investment

Resource Provision:

Funding and Investment

Knowledge, capacity and resources

• Climate Change and how it affects development

• Develop human capacity– Share knowledge rapidly

– Make the needed change, learn for implementation and share that knowledge

• Research and development - Knowledge generation for local context– policy changes

– regulatory changes

– technological changes

– Innovations (Development Market Place as an idea)

– Scaling-up

Knowledge – Mitigation Option

  Include introduction and/or scaling up of:–Improved energy efficiency and conservation–cleaner oil and coal technologies; –renewable energy, including solar, wind and hydropower;

–market mechanisms for carbon trading –the role of forestry and agriculture, including reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), 

–policy instruments, including regulatory frameworks, as well as carbon taxes, incentives, subsidies and education to help change behavior patterns. 

Economically efficient technologies

Sweeney 2007

Adaptation

Reduce other impacts, adapt to changed conditions• Use natural resources efficiently• Change some input-intensive production

systems to less intensive (e.g. agriculture)• Fix what doesn’t work now – better prepared for

the future. Reality…..– Better cope with present climatic extremes– Deal with present climatic extremes in the context of

all other pressures – part of development. Action from communities, government and private sector

Urgency means – knowledge and capacity paramount• Improve knowledge sharing on

– Early phase technologies and Approaches to adaptation– Scaling up - policies and strategies to do so national

action • Enhance and maintain capacity

– Understanding of climate change in university curricula– Active participation of stakeholders affected– Implement learning by doing and sharing knowledge on

early action – Working across “silos”

• Better risk management of present climatic conditions and preparedness for future climate

• Large challenges for future generations• Work towards Low carbon economies and resilient

societies

Thank you

More information atwww.worldbank.org/ and click on climate change