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KLIMOS Environmental Sustainability Profile

MOZAMBIQUE

October 2012

This KLIMOS Environmental Sustainability Profile was compiled as a desk study in October 2012 (all references are at the bottom of this document). The document summarizes key issues pertaining to environment and climate change facing Mozambique, and follows the structure of the KLIMOS Environmental Sustainability Toolkit (www.vub.ac.be/klimostoolkit). For more information, please contact KLIMOS staff: Jean.Huge@ua.ac.be, Tom.Waas@ua.ac.be or Bruno.Verbist@ees.kuleuven.be.

1. Mozambique at a glance

Source: World Bank Environmental Fact Sheet

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2. Climate & Air quality

2.1 Current climate

Mozambique has three agro-climatic zones:

• The northern zone of the Zambezi river is humid, with a distinct rainy season.

Generally, water is available for crops for a full growing season, with drought conditions occurring only twice every ten years.

• The central region, between the south of the Zambezi River and the north of the

Save River, experiences drought conditions approximately four years in every ten.

• The southern region has a high risk of drought conditions, with drought conditions seven out of every ten years.

2.2 Future climate

• The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.4 to 4.6°C by the 2090s.

• The projected rate of warming is more rapid in the interior regions of Mozambique

than those areas closer to the coast. • All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that

are considered ‘hot’ in current climate. • Projections of mean rainfall do not indicate substantial changes in annual rainfall, yet

there will be decreases in dry season rainfall, offset partially by increases in wet season rainfall (DJF).

• Models project increases in the proportion of rainfall that falls in heavy events.

2.3 Climate change and natural disaster risks Mozambique is prone to natural disasters, especially droughts, floods and storms. The floods during 2000 were especially severe with grave impacts on human lives and livelihoods, as well as on the economy. The sectors/areas most vulnerable to CC are identified as • agriculture, • energy, • transport infrastructure, notably roads • coastal areas.

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Figure 1: Climate change will impact cereal productivity negatively in Mozambique

An economic analysis of climate change reveals that climate change may: • cause the GDP to fall between 4 and 14%, with significant declines in national

welfare by 2050. • In the worst-case scenario, climate change costs could reach USD7.6 billion dollars,

which is equivalent to an annual payment of a bit more than USD400 million, if no adaptation measures are implemented.

2.4 Climate change adaptation General • Reduction of climate change impacts in coastal zones; • Management of water resourecs under climate change; • Strengthening of an early warning system; • “Soft” adaptation measures can be powerful, such as improved access to markets

and inputs, support to increased value addition and reduction of post-harvest losses.

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Infrastructure & Land Use • Sealing unpaved roads would reduce the worst-case climate change damages

substantially, with little additional cost (a ‘no-regret’ action, advisable even without climate change).

• Focus investments on climate-proofing highly targeted areas, such as culverts, to

ensure that designs minimize broader erosion risks, and to set aside some funds from the investment budget for additional maintenance so that “basic access” roads can be quickly repaired following heavy rainfall.

• Because the majority of the capital stock in 2050 remains to be installed, land use

planning that channels investment into lower risk locations can substantially reduce risk at low cost.

Agriculture

• Strengthening capacities of agricultural producers to cope with climate change • For the agricultural sector, low-cost approaches are preferred, such as water

harvesting, soil/moisture conservation, and agro-forestry and farm forestry.

Capacity building

• Providing primary education to the workforce also offsets damages. Costs for climate change adaptation, to restore welfare losses, are subject to debate but are reasonably less costly than the cost of not adapting.

2.5 Climate Change mitigation

• Mozambique accounts for only 0,01 % of greenhouse gas emissions according to UN sources

• However, there is a vast untapped potential concerning the potential of lower

emissions agriculture. This kind of agriculture requires additional agricultural research.

2.6 Air pollution

• Indoor air pollution, mainly from wood fuels, is a significant health problem,

especially for women and children. • In certain areas outdoor air pollution is a problem adjacent to mining industry (dust,

SO2, lead, arsenic and other smelter gas substances).

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3. Forest & Land Use

3.1 Deforestation • Deforestation is a significant problem, deriving mainly from fuel wood collection,

shifting agriculture, forest fires, timber exports, and lack of plans for land use. • Wood consumption for fuel is estimated to account for 250 times that consumed by

logging operations. Although current commercial logging is less than 25% of the legally permitted logging capacity, many believe that it is under-reported and not sustainable.

• Environmental impacts of deforestation include land degradation, exacerbated

flooding, coastal erosion (mostly from loss of mangroves) and sedimentation.

• Specific data reveal the northern forests of the Niassa Region are under threat from logging and charcoal wood harvesting, while the dense monoculture forest growth of Mozambique’s coastal forest ranges are decreasing due to agriculture burning.

3.2 Land degradation

• Land degradation, including loss of agricultural soil through soil erosion and desertification, is a major problem.

• Poor land use practices are the main reasons for land degradation and fire is the main

tool for land clearing for cultivation, hunting, logging and acquisition of other non-timber forest products.

• Forest fire is a serious issue; approximately 40% of the country is affected by fire

each year. The north, western and central parts are most affected, with approximately 74% of these areas burnt annually.

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Figure 2: Land use in Mozambique (World Bank Environmental Fact Sheet)

4. Water

• Mozambique has abundant surface water resources, although unevenly distributed in time and space. Over half of the water resources emanate from abroad, which makes regional cooperation important.

• Pollution is a problem in certain localities, primarily from agriculture

(sedimentation, and pesticide and fertilizer runoffs), industry, (discharge of untreated waste containing heavy metals, hydrocarbons, etc.) and sewage and domestic waste (most of which is discharged without treatment directly to the rivers and sea). Artisanal mining is reported to cause extensive erosion and silting in some areas.

Figure 3: Acces to improved water sources and to improved sanitation facilities (Workd Bank Environmental Fact Sheet)

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5. Biodiversity

• Mozambique has a large diversity of wildlife, although large mammal populations

were severely depressed during the civil war. • Ecosystem services are degraded in some areas (Gaza, Manica, Nampula, Sofala

and Tete), and human well-being is threatened.

• The country is rich in fish resources, but marine-coastal zones suffer from large- and small-scale fishing activities, and vital mangrove habitat is disappearing rapidly.

• Pemba Bay is suffering from increasing pollution and salinity due to human

activity, while Lake Niassa, which supports unique species and ecosystems, is under threat from fishing and tourism development on the Malawi side.

• Indirect threats include poverty and population dynamics, lack of public

awareness and consultation, the environment’s reduced political leverage, lack of coordination and harmonization of legislation, lack of capacity to implement biodiversity-related legislation, and lack of funding mechanisms

6. Management 6.1 Environmental performance index • Mozambique ranks 112th in the Environmental Performance Index country

ranking (with an EPI of 51.2). The 2010 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ranks 163 countries on 25 performance indicators tracked across ten policy categories covering both environmental public health and ecosystem vitality. These indicators provide a gauge at a national government scale of how close countries are to established environmental policy goals (http://www.epi2010.yale.edu/)

6.2 Environmental assessment • The key challenge for the future is to more clearly define roles and

responsibilities in the EIA process, in particular the sharing of responsibilities between regional and national authorities and between different sector authorities at national level. This is an exercise in organization and coordination that can only be achieved by developing national capacity to:

o execute independent EIA reviews based on sound and up-to- date scientific and technical knowledge;

o implement advanced research on specific EIA methods o ensure and oversee full public participation at all stages of the EIA

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process o develop an adequate scientific information database, o provide professional training programs on EIA techniques to expand the

critical mass of national EIA practitioners in Mozambique.

References

Nota Bene: All documents used to compile this Environmental Sustainability Profile can be accessed through the KLIMOS Environmental Sustainability Toolkit Database (www.vub.ac.be/klimostoolkit). Government of Mozambique 2007. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). IFAD/IFPRI 2011. Agriculture’s technical mitigation potential. The case of Ghana and Mozambique. McSweeney, C., New, M. & Lizcano, G. UNDP Climate Change Country Profile Mozambique. SAIEA 2003. Environmental impact assessment in southern Africa. Chapter Mozambique. Compiled by Peter Tarr, Funded by DANIDA. UNEP 2010. Vital Climate Graphics Africa. GRID-Arendal. http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa USAID 2008. Mozambique Biodiversity & Tropical Forests Assessment. Wingqvist, G.O. 2011. Environment and Climate Change Policy Brief. Sida’s Helpdesk for Environment and Climate Change. Göteborg University & SLU. World Bank 2008. Mozambique Environmental Fact Sheet. Yale Universirty 2010. Environmental Performance Index. http://www.epi2010.yale.edu/