kingsman asia - platts a very relevant bearish andrews pitchfork…note the angle of attack between...
TRANSCRIPT
S U G A R R U S H 11
Currency Markets outlook
for the Sugar Industry…
Eddie Tofpik
Head of Foreign Exchange
Member of the Society of Technical Analysts
Market Technicians Association (affiliate)
ACI-UK Member
NCT Delhi – September 2016
KINGSMAN ASIA
Welcome to NCT Delhi
…YOU have a PROBLEM! DO NOT LOOK AWAY OR ‘SWITCH OFF’…
1st Put down your…
iPhones, iPads,
your Android Devices…
You…OLD GUYS…
Put away your
Blackberrys…
Lots of people will soon be talking about
SUGAR
ETHANOL
ISOGLUCOSE…
…I’m probably the only one
who will not be…
MY job here is to talk to you about…
F X Foreign Exchange
…and you have to…
FX is important to
your industry…
NOT listening may lead you at
some point into… TROUBLE…
…so what can we use to hear what FX is saying…
…many use Fundamentals…
Let’s look into that a bit…
…what can we use to hear what FX is saying…
Published 1776
…but earlier in Japan…
本間 宗久 (Muneshia Homma)
A very successful Rice Futures trader. He wrote 三猿金泉秘録
The Fountain of Gold - The Three Monkey Record of Money
The first real book on trading
…in 1771
We still use his principles today…
…it is called
Candlestick Charting
…and it is part of…
Technical Analysis These are my credentials - I will use TA
to tell you what the FX Markets say…
Let’s start with a currency
we’re all familiar with
USDINR
…a very messy Chart…
Let’s make it a little
simpler…
so we can see…
…how I work…
Short Moving Average
Short/Medium MA
Medium MA (contrary…)
Long MA…not really helpful but
near to Medium MA…interesting
Some nearby Fibonacci…resistance is
particularly interesting (50% & 38.2%)
More Longer Term Fibs…again
67.10 becomes more interesting
Again…further Longer Term
Fibs indicating Resistance…
A Downtrend showing recent
Bearish action…and now…
A Bearish Schiff Pitchfork giving the
angle of attack of the Market plus
Support & Resistance.
Note this Key Reversal Down!
…plus
a Bearish Triple Top Pattern…
BUT…the MAs are indecisive &
so far…no real follow thru down
..to sum up…
Please note that my
Clients horizons are
usually about a
month ahead
Support is at 66.52, 66.35, 66.25, 66.08 & 65.99
Resistance is at 66.76, 66.84, 67.03 – 67.06, 67.10,
67.14, 67.21, 67.26, 67.36 & 67.45
Overall – Neutral but with a slight Bearish tendency
Fibs 50% at 67.10 & at 38.2% 67.36 seem good Resistance &
have given the market a try lower. However, the lack of follow
through lower after the recent KR Down is concerning me as
is the neutralising congestion of the MAs.
I pause now for any questions…
Now you have seen how I work on
USDINR
what about some others?
Now you have seen how I work on
USDINR
what about some others?
USDBRL?
Add the MAs...note their Bearish nature
…especially the Resistance provided by the
Medium MA…which would be…
Here
Add a VERY relevant Bearish Andrews
Pitchfork…note the angle of attack between
the Upper & Middle Tines…more later.
Longer Term Fibs…
Nearby Fibs…Note the combination of 1) Upper
Tine AP, 2) Medium MA 3) July High & 4) a Key
Reversal Down ALL halted the rise in mid Sep.
x
Add now some previous lows & highs below
the market. Note the significance of the
21st Jul 2015 low & the mid Jul 2015 low.
Let’s take a step back to see where the
AP came from…
This is where the AP comes from. Effectively
you could have plotted the Bearish angle of
attack, Support & Resistance of USDBRL
From late January 2016…
Note the Coincident Bearish
‘Shooting Star’
Candlestick Chart Pattern…
Overall – market is testing up to Resistance of the Upper
Tine of the AP…and will likely do so again. However, it is
still Bearish overall and so look for further falling away if
AP Resistance is maintained. Only consecutive closes over
3.3716 (Neutral) & 50% Fib 3.5648 (Bullish) would alter this.
Support is at 3.2421, 3.2115, 3.1622,
3.1120, 3.0854, 3.0605, 3.0296.
Resistance is at 3.2727,
3.3050 (dynamic), 3.3716, 3.4034,
3.4493, 3.5105 – 3.5152 & 3.5648.
I pause now for any questions…
USDINR & USDBRL
Let’s look at some
others…
USDINR & USDBRL
Let’s look at some others…
USDTHB
Straight in with some MAs…
and you can see…
they’re mainly Bearish…
Add Key Fibs and you can see the 50%
Fib (34.46) is holding up the market
whilst the 38.2% Fib (34.98) is resistance.
The Bearish Oct 2015 – Jan 2016 Schiff Pitchfork
gives a good angle of attack lower for this current
move. Note the coincidence with the Medium MA…
The Jan – May Schiff Pitchfork also helps with
dynamic Support & Resistance levels. Note again
the coincidence of Tine (Upper) with MA (Long)…
…more than one thing at work here…
..some more support below the market…
Continues to be mainly Bearish with lower highs though
the Key 50% Fib at 34.46 is holding well… That will be the
next real test on the downside. You’d need 2 (possibly 3)
consecutive closes underneath to continue the move.
Topside, that’s limited by the coincident Tines & MAs.
Support is at 34.56 – 34.53, 34.49, 34.46,
34.30(dynamic), 34.10, 34.07 & 33.98
Resistance is at 34.70, 34.76, 34.83, 34.98
35.05(dynamic), 35.11, 35.24 &
35.27(dynamic).
I pause now for any questions…
I am mindful that time
is short…
…so here is the final bit!
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