kineros (kinematic runoff and erosion model) michael schaffner senior service hydrologist noaa...
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KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion model)
Michael SchaffnerSenior Service HydrologistNOAA National Weather ServiceWFO Binghamton, NY
Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference
June 4, 2010
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National Weather Service (NWS) forecasting for small fast responding basins
• Forecasting for large basins (i.e. mainstem rivers) has been taking place for decades.
• Forecasting for small basins is more recent and is techniques are still being developed.
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What are current NWS methods of providing site specific/basin specific information in flash flood warnings?
• Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Program (FFMP)
• Site Specific rainfall-runoff models
• Headwater Guidance
• Flash Flood Guidance
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FFMP vs. Site Specific Model
• This allows the forecaster to pinpoint (i.e. provide site specific information) which basins are receiving the heaviest rainfall.
• Does not allow the forecaster in most cases to determine the timing and magnitude of an event.
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Available Site Specific Models
• Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model
• One-hour time steps
• Hourly Multi Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) input
• Manual hourly Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) input
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Output from the Site Specific Model
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The KINEROS Model: A next generation site specific model
• Is a distributed model.
• Current modeling within the NWS is generally lumped modeling. Lumped models consider the watershed as a whole.
• Distributed models take into account spatial variation in:– Drainage/channel network– Precipitation– Land use– Soil type
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Above image from: http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/
Plan View
Schematic View
Composed of a cascade of overland flow planes and open channel elements.
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Starting up the model
• Select initial flow rate
• Select initial soil moisture state (very dry, dry, wet, or very wet)
• Select date and time of simulation start
• Select Z-R Relationship
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KINEROS Graphical User Interface (GUI)
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Test Basins
Both gauged and ungaged watersheds were tested.
4 gauged and 3 ungauged KINEROS modeled points in the upper Delaware River Basin are shown.
Drainage area from 4 square miles to 241 square miles.
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Platte Kill near Dunraven, NY
• 35 square miles.• Typical fast responding
small stream of the Catskill Mountains of New York State.
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Typical Platte Kill Hydrographs produced by KINEROS
Platte Kill near Dunraven
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
6/26/2006
07:12
6/26/2006
09:36
6/26/2006
12:00
6/26/2006
14:24
6/26/2006
16:48
6/26/2006
19:12
6/26/2006
21:36Date and Time
Discharge (cfs)
Gage
Simulation
Platte Kill near Dunraven
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
3/7/2008
14:24
3/7/2008
16:48
3/7/2008
19:12
3/7/2008
21:36
3/8/2008
00:00
3/8/2008
02:24
3/8/2008
04:48
3/8/2008
07:12
3/8/2008
09:36
3/8/2008
12:00
3/8/2008
14:24
Date and Time
Discharge (cfs)
Gage
Simulation
Platte Kill near Dunraven
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
3/8/200812:00
3/8/200814:24
3/8/200816:48
3/8/200819:12
3/8/200821:36
3/9/200800:00
3/9/200802:24
3/9/200804:48
Date and Time
Discharge (cfs)
Gage
Simulation
Platte Kill near Dunraven
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
8/28/200619:12
8/29/200600:00
8/29/200604:48
8/29/200609:36
8/29/200614:24
8/29/200619:12
8/30/200600:00
Date and Time
Discharge (cfs)
Gage
Simulation
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Beaver Kill near Cooks Falls, NY
• 241 square miles.• One of our most challenging
river forecast points due to its fast response time.
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Lead Time: Beaver Kill near Cook Falls, NY
KINEROS can provide lead time of almost 3 hours on the flood crest vs. minimal lead time when compared to the typical flood warning issued.
Further lead time is possible when QPF is added.
USGS web cam image: http://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01420500.htm
241 square mile fast responding headwater point.
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Ungaged Basins
• Represent an unmet need in forecasting within the NWS.
• Data can be collected on small basins using indirect discharge methods.
• Timing of onset of flooding and peak flooding can be noted.
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Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville, NY
USGS stream gage located downstream from Jeffersonville at Callicoon.
May not be representative of flooding further upstream along the East Branch at Jeffersonville.
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Callicoon Creek at Jeffersonville Watershed in KINEROS
Event Date Description
June 28, 2006 Record flood
July 29, 2009 Minor-Moderate
July 31, 2009 Minor-Moderate
August 2, 2009 ¼ Bankfull
August 9, 2009 ½ Bankfull
August 22, 2009 ½ Bankfull
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Summary of Current use of KINEROS
• Used for gaged and ungaged basins.
• Peak flow forecasting for gaged basins including some headwater river forecast points.
• Peak flow forecasting for ungaged basins under the limitation of categorical forecasting.
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Future Work
• Add snow model.• Add sub-surface lateral
flow.
• Test at other NWS offices. Example WFO Pittsburgh urbanized basins:
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Questions / Comments?