Future of Severe and High Impact Weather Warnings

(A) behavioral and social research perspective

Kim KlockowDoctoral candidate in Geography

University of Oklahoma

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

Introduction: Defining my perspective

– Behind the “social scientist” title• Behavioral & hazards geography• Meteorologist

– Research areas• Risk perception research

– Political scientists, risk communication scholars, economists• Dissertation: Mix ethnographic (anthropological) and

cognitive (psychological) frameworks» In-depth interviews following April 27, 2011 tornado

outbreak» Cognitive decision experiments using probabilistic

information of different forms

– Geographers are awesome integrators WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

Environmental perception and

behavioral geography

We were given prompts, none of which apply to me exactly. I’ll apply them to the lay

public(s) to the extent I am able.

A lot of this will be brainstorming!

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

What are (their) roles/responsibilities (capabilities) in the current warning system?

Important to keep in mind that people “responding” to warnings are:– Employees– Friends– Wives, sisters, sons, grandfathers– Busy– Distracted– Bound to culture(s), ideologies, and other ways of

learning about the world than formal educational systems/programs

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

Also note: Warning systems delivering these messages to people are shaped by an interaction of:

– Local politics, preferences & infrastructure (think: sirens)

– Top-down forces pushing information (NWS) *

– Broadcast technologies available to pushers of weather information (to NWS, TV mets, etc.)

– Resources/technologies/social support systems available to people to pull information

What are their roles/responsibilities (capabilities) in the current warning system?

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

How would nearly continuous warning updates change how they prepare?

A few questions:• How do people prepare now in a deterministic system?• Would people receive these continual updates, and if

so, through what media?– “The medium is the message”

How would information concerning forecaster confidence change how they prepare?

A similar set of questions apply!

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012

What work must be completed to accommodate longer lead times?

Not intended to be an exhaustive list, but a few ideas:

– Take focus off “response” and place more on “situation awareness and understanding”• Step back from militaristic command-and-control mentality, reap great

benefits from a more holistic perspective

– Identify the underlying mechanisms for situation awareness and understanding in present system • Utilize social and behavioral frameworks of risk perception, information

processing, fast decision-making under pressure, etc.

– Market research-esque: Conduct experiments, focus groups, trial runs, etc. for new system using the original system as a control

WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012