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Note: Hiscox and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list. Prepared by for MONTHLY KIDNAP BRIEFING This is the 120th issue in a series of kidnap-focused reports prepared by Control Risks on behalf of Hiscox. The Monthly Kidnap Briefing is distributed to select clients in order to keep you informed of the trends in kidnapping worldwide and assess the risk of kidnapping to your business. This issue includes an overview of kidnapping-for-ransom trends worldwide in 2015, a brief on kidnapping in Bolivia and a focus on the Islamic State Influence. ISSUE 120 | February 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL INSIGHT Worldwide overview 1 Latin America 1 Africa 2 Asia 3 Middle East 4 Europe and the CIS 5 BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICA Kidnapping in Bolivia 6 Recent incidents 6 Victims and tactics 6 Perpetrators 6 Mining industry 7 Outlook 7 FOCUS ON The Islamic State influence 8 What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8 The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8 Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9 ABOUT US Control Risks 10 Hiscox 10 If you would like to provide us with feedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefing or inform us of your interest in a specific country or theme that you would like us to cover in a subsequent issue, then please write to [email protected]

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Page 1: KIDNAP Y - Hiscox Special Risks · The Monthly Kidnap Briefing is distributed to select clients in order to keep you informed of the trends in kidnapping worldwide and assess the

Note: Hiscox and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list.

Prepared by for

MO

NTH

LY

KIDNAPBRIEFING

This is the 120th issue in a series of kidnap-focused reports prepared by Control Risks on behalf of Hiscox. The Monthly Kidnap Briefing is distributed to select clients in order to keep you informed of the trends in kidnapping worldwide and assess the risk of kidnapping to your business.

This issue includes an overview of kidnapping-for-ransom trends worldwide in 2015, a brief on kidnapping in Bolivia and a focus on the Islamic State Influence.

ISSUE 120 | February 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8 Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

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GLOBAL INSIGHTTABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

Latin America

After falling to third place in the first half of 2015, Mexico regained its position at the top of Control Risks’ global kidnap rankings by the end of the year. Throughout the year, the National System for Public Security (SNSP) recorded 29% fewer kidnap victims when compared with 2014. However, the principal reason for the purported fall is most likely a reduction of victims’ inclination to report kidnaps. During the year, the high kidnapping levels remained stable in outlying areas of the Federal District and surrounding Mexico state, as well as the pacific coast state of Guerrero. Meanwhile, levels continued to rise in the hotspot littoral states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Michoacán, reflecting the nexus between conflicting organised criminal groups and extortive crime. The security environment is likely to remain most permissive for the crime in these states in 2016. Kidnappers also continued to target primarily local nationals. Although foreign visitors were not immune to the crime, most victims from this demographic were either Latin American or specifically of Mexican descent. Meanwhile, incidents of virtual kidnapping – in which abduction is simulated to extort a ransom payment – continued to rise.

Control Risks in 2015 recorded the highest number of incidents in Asia. Consistently high numbers of kidnaps in India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines continued to drive the trend in 2015. Africa was the setting for 19% of kidnaps in 2015, down 4% globally from 2014. The majority of kidnap cases continued to be recorded in Nigeria, which rose to the number four spot in the global top ten, and was number one in the world for kidnaps of foreign nationals. Libya also retained its position as the second hotspot for kidnap in Africa, while elevated levels persisted in Sudan, Congo (DRC) and Mozambique. By contrast, 29% of abductions occurred in Latin America, an increase of 3% compared with 2014. High numbers of incidents continued to occur in a number of countries across the region, but particularly in Mexico, which retained its number one spot on Control Risks’ list of global kidnapping hotspots for 2015. The proportion of incidents that occurred in the Middle East was unchanged, as high numbers of incidents continued to occur in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Incidents in US, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe and the CIS combined accounted for 1% of kidnaps worldwide.

Figure 1: Kidnaps by region, 2014-2015

Worldwide overview

2015

2014

Asia and Pacific Middle EastAfrica US, Canada, theCaribbean, Europe and the CIS

1%

1%

Latin America

23%

19%

16%

16%

34%

35%

26%

29%

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Colombia re-established itself in Control Risks’ list of top kidnapping locations at number eight. Although this climb does not represent a particularly sharp rise in recorded cases, it acts as a reminder of the ongoing threat posed by kidnapping gangs and illegal armed groups. The highest levels of the crime were found in Norte de Santander and Antioquia departments. Consistent with longer-term trends, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and Chocó also recorded high levels. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) engaged in two high-profile abductions of military personnel during the year. However, most fronts actively sought to distance themselves from the crime, as the group made swift progress in ongoing peace talks with the government in the second half of the year. These talks are likely to come to a successful conclusion in 2016. Despite this development, the security situation will remain complex in traditional FARC strongholds. A cocktail of disgruntled FARC guerrillas, neo-paramilitary groups and National Liberation Army (ELN) fronts are likely to remain involved in extortive crime in these areas. Despite claiming that their own formal peace talks with the government are imminent, the ELN remains actively involved in kidnapping. According to Control Risks’ records, the group perpetrated more kidnaps in 2015 than in any year since 2006.

Venezuela also returned to Control Risks’ list of top ten kidnapping locations worldwide, ending the year in seventh place. After a dip in cases recorded in 2014, this represents a return to average kidnapping levels seen in the country since 2011. Despite this ‘return to normal’, Control Risks also recorded progressively more cases during each quarter of the year. Anti-crime initiatives such as the Operation Liberation and Protection of the People have thus far proved incapable of stemming the tide, largely because the underlying social and economic causes of the crime are still evident. In the context of growing insecurity and economic instability, kidnappers increasingly demanded ransom payments in US dollars in 2015, moderately increasing the risk to expatriates. Throughout the year, the crime was mostly concentrated in urban areas in general, and around the Metropolitan Region of Caracas in particular, a trend that is likely to continue into 2016.

There was an increase in reported kidnaps-for-ransom in Argentina in 2015. Control Risks recorded twice the number of cases in 2015 than in 2014. Kidnapping predominantly occurs in Buenos Aires and the surrounding province and involves local businesspeople and their dependants. In 2015, 84% of all cases recorded by Control Risks occurred there. The most high-profile case during the year was that of a businessman who was kidnapped on 27 April in Buenos Aires province. The kidnappers demanded a ransom of US$ 2m and he was released after nine days in captivity following a ransom payment of ARS 1.5m (US$ 202,000). Despite this, kidnaps-for-ransom in Argentina more commonly involve short periods in captivity and low ransom demands. The median ransom demand in 2015 was US$ 22,000. Express kidnapping remains more prevalent than kidnapping-for-ransom.

Brazil remains a medium-risk country in terms of kidnapping-for-ransom. There was an increase in reported cases in 2015 compared with 2014, according to Control Risks’ statistics. São Paulo state is the kidnapping hotspot: in 2015, 30% of all kidnaps-for-ransom recorded by Control Risks occurred there. However, the problem is widespread and cases were reported in many states in 2015. The vast majority of kidnap victims are middle-class locals, particularly businesspeople and their dependants. The abduction of foreign nationals is rare, but the possibility cannot be discounted.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

Africa

Kidnapping remained a deep-rooted phenomenon throughout Nigeria, which in 2015 ranked fourth in our global top ten. Furthermore, the country ranked first for kidnaps of foreign nationals globally. Most kidnaps continue to take place in the Niger Delta region, with Rivers and Delta states consistently recording the highest incidence of the crime. Port Harcourt (Rivers state), Warri (Delta state) and Benin City (Edo state) were the main urban kidnapping hotspots. Islamist militant group Boko Haram continued to use mass abductions as a core tactic in its campaign in north-east Nigeria, though incidents

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decreased from last year as the group’s operations partially shifted over the border into Chad and Cameroon as a result of concerted military pressure from Nigerian forces and their regional partners. Concentrations of kidnaps featuring foreigners moved away from the Niger Delta in 2015, and were primarily registered in Middle Belt states like Kogi and Niger. The change of government brought a degree of uncertainty to the future stability of the Niger Delta states, with the new administration of President Muhammadu Buhari threatening to scale back the militant amnesty programme that has prevented a relapse of violence targeting the oil and gas industry.

In Libya, Islamic State (IS)’s consolidation of its hold on the central coastal city of Sirte led to a spike in kidnappings in the district of the same name. Abductions in the district accounted for 26% of the national total between October 2014 and October 2015, up from 1% in the previous year. Mass abductions of pilgrims, labourers and other large groups were commonplace, as were kidnaps of members of competing political and judicial structures in the region. Foreign nationals continued to be directly targeted in the central and north-western areas, owing to the greater concentration of Islamist militias with anti-Western agendas in those regions. The Tripoli area and the central coast around Sirte remained the highest risk areas.

Last year saw an increase in activity by militant groups in Mali, including two attacks on hotels housing foreigners – in Sevare (August) and Bamako (November) – and an expansion of their area of operations within Mali, with twin attacks on towns near the southern border with Côte d’Ivoire in June 2015. The country has historically been home to groups identifying with or linked to al-Qaeda, but the continuing expansion of IS on the global stage and the recent declaration of allegiance to it by Boko Haram in nearby Nigeria spurred existing groups in Mali to reassert their presence in 2015. The abduction of Swiss missionary Beatrice Stockly in January 2016 by al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) was likely an extension of this effort. Stockly was kidnapped for the second time from her home in Timbuktu, having spent nine days in captivity in 2012.

The National Assembly of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced on 3 December 2015 that it was forming a commission of inquiry to investigate and tackle rising rates of kidnap in the country’s volatile eastern provinces. Control Risks recorded double the number of kidnaps in 2014 than in 2013, a level that held steady in 2015. Around 42% of these kidnaps were concentrated in North Kivu province, with Rutshuru territory considered the most exposed to kidnap-for-ransom. The vast majority of kidnaps involve local civilians, who generally adopt less stringent security procedures and are less likely to arouse suspicion with local security forces. However, in a number of cases, armed groups also kidnapped employees of local and international NGOs and – in at least one case – those of a private operator.

Egypt was ranked number 13 in Control Risks’ list of high-risk kidnapping countries in 2015. However, its position outside the top ten belies a significant and emergent threat. In 2015, IS affiliate Sinai Province proved its intent and capability to kidnap and behead foreign nationals in urban areas. Nevertheless, it used the tactic only once outside of its Sinai Peninsula stronghold, and the main perpetrators of the crime continued to be criminals who mainly targeted local nationals for financial gain. It is likely that Sinai Province will attempt further abductions of foreign nationals in 2016, though incidents will likely be isolated.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

Asia

India, Afghanistan and Pakistan consistently feature in Control Risks’ top ten kidnapping hotspots worldwide. In 2015, those countries featured at second, fifth and sixth place respectively. Bangladesh also featured in Control Risks’ top ten for the second year running, while the Philippines re-entered the list in 2015 at number ten after it fell just outside the top ten in 2014.

India was once again the country with the highest number of recorded kidnaps in Asia and the Pacific in 2015 and it remained the second highest risk country in the world, according

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to Control Risks’ records. Kidnaps were recorded daily in the country, but foreigners continued to face a low risk of kidnapping, with incidents occurring only sporadically. Although there was a higher risk of kidnap by militants in the north-eastern states, the crime remained geographically widespread. Control Risks recorded incidents in 28 states.

Fourteen years into the conflict in Afghanistan, there began to be a greater emphasis on sectarian-related kidnapping. The emergence of an IS affiliate brought the trend to life in February and it continued at a pace throughout the year. Overall numbers of kidnaps began to rise with the start of the summer fighting season in March, as those loyal to the Taliban’s cause increased their activity, both in the wake of the drawdown of foreign troops from the country and in an attempt to prove their continued strength following the announcement of the death of the group’s former leader, Mullah Omar.

Overall numbers of recorded kidnaps in Pakistan were lower in 2015 than in the previous year, but the risk has not diminished. Criminals continue to drive the trend, but the threat from militancy remains and was particularly acute in Balochistan in 2015. The Federal Capital Territory of Islamabad remained one of the lower-risk areas of the country in terms of kidnapping, but high numbers of incidents continued to occur in the provincial capitals of Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar.

Bangladesh was ranked number nine in the 2015 list of kidnapping hotspots. The crime was prevalent both on- and offshore. Incidents were perpetrated by criminals for financial gain and foreigners were rarely affected.

Approximately two-thirds of the incidents recorded in the Philippines in 2015 occurred in the south, where groups with a range of motives used the tactic. The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) kidnapped foreign nationals on numerous occasions, and its financial demands became steeper as the year progressed, ending with PHP 1bn (US$21m) for each of the three foreign nationals it kidnapped from a tourist resort in Samal in September. Kidnapping was not geographically limited to the south though, and Metro Manila continued to be a hotspot outside of the insurgency-prone areas.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

Middle East

Multiple conflicts in the region contributed significantly to the Middle East’s 19% share of global kidnaps. Criminal kidnapping also remained an issue, particularly in Lebanon and parts of Iraq that are not held by IS.

The presence of IS means that parts of Iraq and Syria occupied by the group are some of the most dangerous areas to be kidnapped in worldwide. The group used kidnapping on a vast scale to subjugate those in its control, while simultaneously demonstrating its continued intent and capability to kidnap and behead foreign nationals for propaganda purposes. IS also contributed to an increase in kidnapping in areas of Iraq outside of IS control. A resurgence of Shia militias led to a rise in sectarian kidnapping. In the last quarter of 2015, Shia militias also began to demonstrate the intent and capability to kidnap foreign nationals. The threat of kidnap remained LOW in the Kurdistan Region.

Lebanon was ranked 17th on Control Risks’ global rankings in 2015. The kidnapping risk was largely confined to the Bekaa valley, where criminals, local tribes and Syria-based Sunni Islamist extremists all contributed to the threat. While the security situation in Syria makes journalism untenable there and individual incidents are rarely reported, the kidnapping risk remains extreme.

Houthi Shia rebels continued to use kidnapping as a form of punishment in the areas of Yemen under its control. The group detained both foreign and local nationals on various charges. Incidents linked to Sunni extremism were fewer in 2015 on account of the groups’ preoccupation with Houthi forces. However, incidents continued to occur.

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Europe and the CIS

Europe and the CIS remained a low-risk area for kidnapping-for-ransom in 2015, though Control Risks recorded cases in a number of countries including Spain and Germany. Kidnapping-for-ransom is more common in Germany than in many other Western European countries. The most common victims are local, wealthy and often high-profile businesspeople or their dependants, who are specifically targeted by criminal gangs. A kidnap-for-ransom in Germany in June involved the 50-year-old disabled son of a billionaire, and the kidnappers demanded a ransom of EUR 2m (US$ 2.2m) for his release. The victim was released the same day and no ransom was paid, according to press reports. Another cases in August involved a 17-year-old daughter of a businessman kidnapped for a EUR 1m ransom (US$ 1.09m). Her body was found four days later. Cases in Spain are often perpetrated by organised crime groups from North Africa, Latin America and China. Kidnap victims are often targeted because they owe money to one of these groups.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

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BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICATABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

KIDNAPPING IN BOLIVIA

Kidnapping-for-ransom is not as common in Bolivia as it is in many neighbouring Latin American countries. Control Risks assesses the kidnapping risk in the country as low. Sporadic kidnaps-for-ransom are reported, but it is possible that some go unreported in the press and to the authorities. The cities of La Paz and Santa Cruz and surrounding departments are the country’s kidnapping hotspots, but the threat of kidnapping is not confined to these areas. Kidnaps-for-ransom were also recorded in 2014 and 2015 in Cochabamba and Pando departments.

RECENT INCIDENTS

Two recent incidents highlight the fact that kidnapping-for-ransom poses a latent threat, which is not limited to locals. A Brazilian restaurant owner was kidnapped on 6 November 2015 in Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz department) by unknown gang members. His fate remained unknown despite the reported payment of a ransom of US$ 600,000 for his release. In a second case, the daughter of a local businessman was kidnapped as she left work on 9 December in La Paz (La Paz department). The kidnappers contacted the victim’s family and made a ransom demand of US$ 2m. The family paid BOB 5m (US$ 742,000) and the victim was rescued two days later. Police arrested the Colombian mastermind, two Peruvians and a Bolivian, and recovered the ransom money.

VICTIMS AND TACTICS

The main victims of criminal gangs are local wealthy businesspeople or their dependants, particularly children. Foreign nationals are more likely to be the victims of express kidnapping than kidnapping-for-ransom as they are often targeted because of their perceived wealth. High levels of express kidnapping are recorded in Santa Cruz, as well as La Paz. Financial gain appeared to be the principal motive for both of the kidnaps in November and December 2015. Given that all of the recorded ransom demands in Bolivia in 2014 and 2015 prior to these cases ranged between US$ 5,000 and US$ 80,000, the demands in these cases were comparatively high.

Kidnaps in Bolivia usually last less than a week. Most victims are released following the payment of a ransom or are rescued by the authorities. Control Risks recorded the killing of one victim in the last three years. A 20-year-old student was kidnapped in El Alto (La Paz department) in November 2013 after being lured to a meeting by someone she met on Facebook. The kidnappers made a ransom demand of US$ 20,000. The victim’s body was found nine days later.

PERPETRATORS

All of the kidnaps-for-ransom recorded by Control Risks in 2015 were carried out by criminal gangs, including drug traffickers. Some incidents in recent years have been perpetrated by police officers, highlighting the enduring problem of corruption among members of the security forces. A case in 2014 highlighted the link between kidnapping and drug trafficking. A Spanish 12-year-old, whose Ecuadorian father was resident in Spain, and a three-month-old, who had a different father, were kidnapped in March. The victims’ Bolivian mother was in prison in Spain after being arrested for trafficking cocaine. The kidnap was believed to be linked to this drug deal. The kidnappers demanded a ransom of US$ 5,000 in return for the release of the children. Three people were arrested in connection with the incident and the children were released.

On 19 November 2015, Bolivian police dismantled a kidnapping gang in Cobija (Pando department). The gang was made up of Bolivians and Brazilians, and targeted businesspeople and politicians in the area. According to a police report, the gang carried

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

out at least one kidnap a month, but it is unclear how long they had been operating. A man was kidnapped from his home in Puerto Evo (Pando department) on 3 August 2015. The kidnapper, a trafficker, demanded a ransom of US$ 80,000. The victim was released on 4 August following police intervention. It was unclear whether the gang dismantled in November was responsible for this abduction.

MINING INDUSTRY

There is significant anti-mining sentiment in Bolivia and the mining industry is targeted principally by indigenous groups. Miners protesting against new legislation in Kami (Cochabamba department) in April 2014 took three policemen hostage, but released them after a few days. There is potential for people working in the mining industry, including foreign nationals, to be targeted. Indigenous groups often make non-financial demands, such as the release of people from prison or the withdrawal of mining operations.

OUTLOOK

The security environment in Bolivia is likely to remain permissive to kidnapping in 2016. The recently reported kidnaps-for-ransom do not indicate a heightened threat, but clients with operations in the country should be aware of the kidnapping risk and put appropriate security measures in place. Local businesspeople and their dependants will continue to be the groups most likely to be affected by kidnapping, particularly in Santa Cruz and La Paz, but foreign nationals are also at risk.

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THE ISLAMIC STATE INFLUENCE

In August 2014, Islamist extremist group Islamic State (IS) publically beheaded US journalist James Foley whom it had held secretly since his abduction in Syria in November 2012. Foley was the first of several foreigners to lose his life at the hands of IS in a public show designed to garner support, funding and influence for the group.

WHAT IS THE IS KIDNAPPING FORMULA?

The shock propaganda act of beheading has become IS’s signature hostage tactic. It is by no means a new tactic, but IS has revived it to maximum effect and used it to seal its image on the world stage. Nevertheless, beheading is just one element of IS’s kidnapping strategy. Other characteristics of IS’s approach to kidnapping include:

Figure 2: The timeline of an IS kidnap

THE SPREAD OF IS’S KIDNAPPING TACTICS

Groups looking to imitate IS’s success have dissected its kidnapping strategy and adopted different aspects of it to better achieve their own local aims. For some, the leap straight to beheading foreigners was almost immediate. In September 2014, just one month after the first IS beheading of a foreign victim, a previously unheard of group in Algeria, Jund al-Khilafah, kidnapped a French national and beheaded him on camera within 24 hours. Other groups have been slower to react. It was early 2015 before sectarian kidnapping became a trend in Afghanistan. The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines beheaded its first foreign victim in November 2015, even though it had shown signs of moving towards IS’s propaganda strategy as early as September 2014 when it threatened to behead two German tourists. Both were subsequently released, allegedly for a ransom of US$ 5.6m. A timeline including some of the most important manifestations of groups’ alignment with IS strategy follows:

FOCUS ONTABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

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TARGETING – IS principally targets local dissenters, and is particularly active along sectarian lines. The group also prizes foreign nationals for their financial, political and global propaganda value.

PROPAGANDA VIDEOS - IS’s polished and professional media strategy, including a large social media campaign, has surpassed that of any modern Islamist extremist group. The messaging that it puts out has been important in terms of attracting supporters, fighters, migrants and funding. Its strategy with regard to kidnap victims is innovative; prior to the kidnapping of journalist John Cantlie, never before had a victim been used as a reporter to put forward the kidnappers’ world view.

HIGH FINANCIAL DEMANDS FOR FOREIGN NATIONALS – After an initial period during which victims were released for ransom, IS moved towards making large, symbolic financial demands for victims as part of its wider propaganda strategy. In January 2015, IS demanded US$200m for two Japanese journalists, a figure which mimicked that pledged in aid by Japan to support countries fighting IS.

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Figure 3: The global spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics

WILL IS’S INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO GROW?

Islamist extremist kidnappers around the world are even now slowly aligning their kidnapping tactics with IS’s strategy. That this continues to happen 18 months after the first IS beheading in Syria is testament to the perceived success of IS’s approach by Islamist kidnappers around the world. Although the crude format of some groups’ videos proves that it is not easy to replicate IS’s media success, even a rudimentary attempt has impact. In 2016, groups that have not yet adopted elements of the strategy are likely to begin to do so, while others will continue to hone their craft. Companies whose employees are the victims of this type of kidnap risk face complicated legal issues owing to the involvement of a terrorist entity, unwanted media attention, high demands made by unyielding kidnappers, and ultimately an increased threat to the life of the victim.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]

AUGUST 2014

SEPTEMBER 2014

DECEMBER 2014

FEBRUARY 2015

JUNE 2015

JULY 2015

NOVEMBER 2015

SYRIA: IS beheads first foreign victim.

ALGERIA: Jund al-Khilafah beheads a French national.

EGYPT: Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (now Sinai Province) beheads local Egyptians.

PHILIPPINES: ASG threatens to behead two German tourists, but later releases them following the alleged payment of a ransom.

YEMEN: al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula threatens to behead a US national, but he dies during a rescue attempt.

MALI: al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb takes a more innovative approach to hostage videos, interviewing two foreign victims in captivity.

PHILIPPINES: ASG beheads a Malaysian victim after releasing his co-hostage for a ransom. At the same time it releases its first, crude propaganda videos of two Canadian victims and a Norwegian, making a ludicrous financial demand of US$21m per victim.

AFGHANISTAN: Sectarian kidnapping becomes an issue 14 years into the conflict, following the emergence of an IS affiliate, and victims are beheaded.

EGYPT: Sinai Province beheads a Croatian national they kidnapped on the outskirts of Cairo; it is the group’s first Islamist abduction of a foreigner.

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ABOUT USControl Risks’ services are exclusively retained by Hiscox. In the event of a kidnap, detention or extortion incident covered by Hiscox, clients will benefit from Control Risks’ services as part of their insurance policy.

CONTROL RISKS

Control Risks is a leading international business risk consultancy. It offers a range of integrated political risk, investigative, security and crisis management services to corporate, government and private clients worldwide.

Since its foundation in 1975, Control Risks has advised clients on the resolution of 2,839 kidnap and extortion cases in 133 different countries, with 48,214 person-days aggregate duration. Cases have ranged from traditional kidnaps-for-ransom, express kidnaps, hostage takings, ship and aircraft hijacks to political detentions, product extortion and contamination and other threat extortions. Control Risks has a full-time team of Response Consultants, available for immediate deployment in response to a crisis anywhere in the world. Response Consultants will advise on negotiation strategies and on how to manage the various interests of the victim, family, employers, the media, the government and local law enforcement agencies.

The Response Division has its own dedicated team of research analysts. As well as supporting consultants deployed on cases, they maintain the International Kidnap Online Service (IKOS) which follows the trends in kidnapping worldwide and allows clients to assess the risk to their business. In addition to IKOS, Response Research produces commissioned kidnap and extortion analysis of any country or sector. If you are interested in any of these services, please write to [email protected]

For more information about Control Risks, please visit our website at www.controlrisks.com

HISCOX

Hiscox is the world’s largest provider of specialist kidnap, detention and extortion insurance, with a market share of 60-70% by premium income. We cover companies and individuals against all forms of extortion and can protect your assets from illegal demands and the consequential associated expenses.

Our clients include multinational companies operating in high risk regions of the world, key executives working in commercially sensitive positions and individuals whose wealth or fame may attract the attention of criminals.

Hiscox kidnap and ransom underwriters are the most experienced in the field. Our knowledge of the sector enables us to make quick decisions on cover, no matter how unusual the request. We are highly skilled in handling what may be a very difficult and sensitive emergency. Our specialist policies can be tailored to suit individual needs and circumstances.

We have underwriting teams based in Guernsey, Paris, Cologne, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and at Lloyd’s of London.

For further information, please contact us at [email protected]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOBAL INSIGHTWorldwide overview 1Latin America 1Africa 2Asia 3Middle East 4Europe and the CIS 5

BRIEF ON LATIN AMERICAKidnapping in Bolivia 6Recent incidents 6Victims and tactics 6Perpetrators 6Mining industry 7Outlook 7

FOCUS ONThe Islamic State influence 8What is the IS kidnapping formula? 8The spread of IS’s kidnapping tactics 8Will IS’s influence continue to grow? 9

ABOUT USControl Risks 10Hiscox 10

If you would like to provide us withfeedback on the Monthly Kidnap Briefingor inform us of your interest in a specificcountry or theme that you would like usto cover in a subsequent issue, thenplease write to [email protected]