kg - mmsa - methanol shipping...chemical tanker crude oil tanker 11 a typical chemical tanker -...

Karan Grover – Braemar Quincannon Pte Limited16th IMPCA 2013 Asian Methanol Conference

METHANOL SHIPPING:A SNAPSHOT

16TH IMPCA ASIAN METHANOL CONFERENCESINGAPORE, 01 NOV 2013KARAN GROVER

SHIP BROKERBRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD

AGENDA• BQ INTRODUCTION

2

• METHANOL DYNAMICS IN BRIEF

• METHANOL SHIPPING - OVERVIEW• REQUIREMENTS• TYPICAL METHANOL CARRIER• TRADE PATTERNS FROM MIDDLE EAST TO THE FAR EAST• TONNAGE PROFILE• FREIGHT RATES

• SHIPPING MARKETS

• SUMMARY & Q/A


BRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD• INDEPENDENT SHIPBROKERS ESTABLISHED IN 1998 IN

SINGAPORE AS A JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN BRAEMAR SEASCOPE &QUINCANNON ASSOCIATES WITH A SISTER

3

SEASCOPE &QUINCANNON ASSOCIATES WITH A SISTER COMPANY BQ SHANGHAI

• SHIP BROKERING BUSINESS FOR BULK SHIPMENTS IN • METHANOL / CHEMICALS / SPECIALTY PRODUCTS • GAS• FATS / OIL / ETHANOL / CPP• SPECIAL PROJECTS & CONSULTING

• 21 STAFF LOCATED IN SINGAPORE• 11 BROKERS W/ SHIPPING BACKGROUND• 8 POST-FIXTURE & OPERATIONS SUPPORT STAFF• DEDICATED DEMURRAGE ANALYST• DEDICATED RESEARCH ANALYST

4

METHANOL IS THE CHEAPEST WAY TO

TRANSPORT ENERGY!


METHANOL DYNAMICS• CAPACITY: 80MT DEMAND: 60MT FALLOW: 20MT

• ASIA ~ 65% OF DEMAND OF WHICH CHINA MORE THAN 50%

5

ASIA 65% OF DEMAND OF WHICH CHINA MORE THAN 50%

• STEADY UPTREND IN DEMAND - DRIVEN BY THE ENERGY SECTOR• 45MT IN 2010 – 50MT IN 2011 – 60MT IN 2012 - 60MT IN 2013

PROJECTED 80MT IN 2016AMONGST THE LARGEST TRADED CHEMICAL COMMODITIES

METHANOL TRADE FLOWS

6


7

METHANOL TRADE FLOWS REQUIRE SHIPPING ON SPECIALIZED TANKERS

SHIPPING• METHANOL IS SHIPPED IN SPECIALIZED TANKERS

WITH FOLLOWING ATTRIBUTES:

8

• IMO CLASSIFICATION• IBC CODE TYPE III OR UP

• COMPATIBLE TANK COATING • STAINLESS STEEL / MARINE LINE / ZINC• EPOXY TANKS ARE NOT RECOMMENDED TO CARRY METHANOL

• STRIPPING CAPACITY (MARPOL CATEGORY “Y” )• ACCEPTABLE RESIDUE PER TANK (75 LTRS – 150 LTRS PER TANK)

• INERTING / PURGING ABILITY• FOR TANKS OVER 3000 CBM


TYPICAL METHANOL CARRIER• SIZE RANGE:

• 13,000T DWT UPTO 50,000T DWT & ABOVE

9

, ,

• AVERAGE SPEED:• 12 – 14 KNOTS

• 04 – 05 DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO WCI• 12 – 14 DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO SINGAPORE • 19 – 21 DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO MID CHINA

• ABILITY TO LOAD AND CARRY MULTIPLE CARGOES• MULTIPLE TANKS WITH INDIVIDUAL MANIFOLD, PUMPS AND

LINES FOR EACH TANK

• AVERAGE SIZE HAS INCREASED OVER THE YEARS

A TYPICAL IMO 2/3 TANKER

10


CHEMICAL v PRODUCT / CRUDE TANKER

CHEMICAL TANKER CRUDE OIL TANKER

11

A TYPICAL CHEMICAL TANKER - SCHEMATICS

12


GLOBAL METHANOL TONNAGE - EXISTING• ~ 4100 SHIPS @ ~88MT DWT / ~98M CBM

“IMO” CLASSED SHIPSMOSTLY SIMPLE IMO TONNAGE

13

• MOSTLY SIMPLE IMO TONNAGE• TRADING CPP – BUT ABILITY TO “SWING”

• QUALITY METHANOL TONNAGE LIMITED / 28.6 MIL CBM• 7.5 MIL CBM ZINC SPACE• 5.7 MIL CBM MARINE LINE SPACE• 15.4 MIL CBM STAINLESS SPACE

• YOUNG FLEET~ AVERAGE AGE OF 10 YRS

• AVERAGE AGE OF SCRAPPING IS 25 YRS• DOWN FROM 28 YEARS

• THERE IS AN IMBALANCE IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND • SUFFICENT TONNAGE TO COPE UNTIL 2015-2016

NEW BUILDS & SCRAPPING (2004 – 2015)

14

OF

SH

IPS

MT DWT

# O


15

CURRENT SHIPPING MARKETS ARE UNDER

PRESSURE

VESSEL ECONOMICS – 45K DWT TANKER• FINANCIAL COST:

• NEW BUILD COST $38 MIL• DAILY FINANCE COST $11 000

16

• DAILY FINANCE COST $11,000 (80% FINANCED @ 6% OVER 10 YRS)

• VESSEL DAILY OPERATING COSTS:• CREW $3,500• MAINTAINENCE $2,000• INSURANCE $700• ADMINISTRATION $800• BREAK EVEN / LAY-UP $7,500

• T/C BREAK EVEN $18,500 / DAY

• CURRENT T/C RATES $14,500 - $15,000 / DAY

• RESIDUAL SCRAP VALUE $4.8 MIL(11500 LDT @ USD 420 ~ 25 YRS)


FREIGHT RATES EX MIDDLE EASTB

UN

KE

R

17

- - - IFO 380 BUNKERS

GH

T P

ER

MT

R &

ME

THA

NO

L CFR

*METHANOL PRICE DATA PROVIDED BY METHANOL MARKET SERVICES ASIA (MMSA)

FRE

IG PR

ICE

PE

T MT

CURRENT SHIPPING MARKETS• OVER CAPACITY OF TONNAGE CONTINUES

• BUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND EXPECTED TO COME TO AN

18

BUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND EXPECTED TO COME TO AN EQUILIBRIUM W/ ADDITIONAL CAPACITIES COMING ON-STREAM

• SHIPPING MARKETS ARE STILL SOFT• SLOW BUT STABLE YEAR – W/ LITTLE VOLATILITY

OWNERS STILL STRUGGLING• OWNERS STILL STRUGGLING• EARNINGS & SENTIMENTS STRONGER COMPARED TO 2012

• MARKETS IN A STATE OF TRANSITION & OWNERS ARE OPEN TO CHANGING TRADING PATTERNS


SHIPPING MARKETS• SHIPPING MARKETS TIGHTENING AND EXPECTED

TO TIGHTEN

19

TO TIGHTEN• COMMERCIAL AND POOL OPERATORS PUSHING UP T/C

RATES

• 2013 SHIPPING CONTRACTS RENEWED AT HIGHER LEVELS• OWNERS MORE BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS YEARS & NOT

SHY TO WALK AWAY FROM LOW PAYING BUSINESS

• STABLE BUNKER PRICES IN 2013• PIRACY - NOT A MAJOR FACTOR, BUT REMAINS A

THREAT• IRAN STABLE AND AN ECO-SYSTEM BY ITSELF

• PREMIUM ON RATES, BUT SHIPS AVAILABLE

THE IMPORTANCE OF SHIPPING TO THE

20

SHIPPING TO THE METHANOL BUSINESS

CANNOT BE OVER-EMPHASIZED


SUMMARY• METHANOL IS ONE OF THE LARGEST TRADED COMMODITES &

METHANOL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GROW

21

• METHANOL IS THE CHEAPEST FORM OF TRANSPORTING ENERGY

• METHANOL REQUIRES TO BE SHIPPED ON SPECIALIZED TANKERS

• SHIPPING COSTS ACCOUNT FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL COST COMPARED TO OTHER COMMODITIES

• CURRENT FREIGHT RATES ARE LOW AND SHIPPING MARKETS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 2015 ONWARDSEXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 2015 ONWARDS

• FOR A WORLD SCALE PLANT (1.5 MIL MT) – AN OPTIMIZATION OF JUST US $1 REPRESENTS US $30 MIL IN SAVINGS OVER 20 YRS

• THE IMPORTANCE OF SHIPPING TO THE METHANOL BUSINESS CANNOT BE OVER-EMPHASIZED

22

THANK YOU!


BRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD

23

1 PICKERING STREET #08-01GREAT EASTERN CENTRE

SINGAPORE 048659T: +65 9112 3824

[email protected]

kg - mmsa - methanol shipping...chemical tanker crude oil tanker 11 a typical chemical tanker -...

Documents