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COVID-19 Retail Industry Sentiment SurveyKey findings
Week commencing 18 May 2020
2
Introduction
• These are the key findings from the Deloitte Retail Industry Sentiment Survey, conducted in May 2020, as part of our ongoing coverage of the UK retail industry. The findings are based on the responses of 27 senior figures representing businesses with a combined 2019 revenue of over £100 billon across both food and non food retail.
• The findings in this document represent the sixth survey conducted during the week of May 18, 2020.
• Stay tuned for our next set of COVID-19 Retail Industry Sentiment Survey findings and please visit our registration page to sign up.
To help identify the business impact of COVID-19 in the retail industry, Deloitte is conducting a weekly survey of sentiment from retail executives
Deloitte treats survey responses as being made in the strictest confidence. Access to such responses is restricted to those within the firm working on the survey. The results of the survey will solely consist of data aggregated from individual responses to ourquestions, therefore respondents will not be identified on an individual basis. The data for the survey is collected via an open weblink and as such, participation is not limited to a controlled list of intended recipients.
3
Survey responses
4
0%
0%
0%
0%
6%
53%
41%
0%
0%
0%
12%
12%
59%
18%
Up to 1 month
1 month
2 months
3 months
4–6 months
6–12 months
>12 months
14%
0%
14%
0%
14%
29%
29%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
Up to 1
month
1 month
2 months
3 months
4–6 months
6–12 months
>12 months
Length of the disruption to the retail sector
Q1: From now, how long do you expect material disruption to your business to last?
Retailer sentiment on disruption has improved slightly with 24% (vs. 6% last week) non-food retailers and 33% food retailers believing the disruption period to be less than six months; however the majority of retailers still anticipate a disruption period of more than six months.
Note: Please note that percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding-off error
Non-Food retailers Food & Grocery retailers Both Food and Non-food retailers
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
33%
33%
Up to 1
month
1 month
2 months
3 months
4–6 months
6–12 months
>12 months
11-May 18-May
5
Retail industry’s recovery speed
Q2: Once the COVID-19 outbreak is contained, how long do you estimate it will take for your business to get back to business as usual?
76% of non-food retailers expect that once the disruption has ended it will take more than 6 months for the sector to recover, however this sentiment has shifted more towards the 6–12 month horizon (+12ppts) rather than the 12–24 month horizon (-18ppts); food retailer sentiment on recovery remains upbeat as 66% anticipate normalcy to return in under three months.
Note: Please note that percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding-off error
Non-Food retailers Food & Grocery retailers Both Food and Non-food retailers
0%
12%
0%
29%
53%
6%
0%
0%
24%
41%
35%
0%
Less than a
month
1–3 months
3–6 months
6–12 months
12–24 months
>24 months
0%
14%
29%
57%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
50%
50%
0%
Less than a
month
1–3 months
3–6 months
6–12 months
12–24 months
>24 months
50%
0%
0%
50%
0%
0%
33%
33%
0%
0%
33%
0%
Less than a
month
1–3 months
3–6 months
6–12 months
12–24 months
>24 months
11-May 18-May
6
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
12%
18%
18%
24%
35%
35%
65%
71%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6%
6%
29%
41%
24%
0%
59%
47%
71%
Other
Product development
Remote working
capabilities
Transactions/expansion
Infrastructure gaps
Stakeholder
relationships
Supply chain
Financing/lender
considerations
eCommerce offerings
Delivery fulfilment
Maintaining operations
Optimising operations
Workforce health and
safety
Cashflow/cash
management
Current key priorities
Q3: What are your key priorities over the next four weeks? (multiple answers possible)
Cash management, workforce health and safety, and optimising operations remain the top priorities for non-food retailers; workforce health and safety continues to be the primary focus for food retailers followed by supply chain and financing considerations.
Non-Food retailers Food & Grocery retailers
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
67%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
50%
0%
0%
50%
50%
50%
100%
Other
Maintaining operations
Delivery fulfilment
Product development
Stakeholderrelationships
Remote working
capabilities
Transactions/expansion
Infrastructure gaps
Optimising operations
Cashflow/cash
management
eCommerce offerings
Financing/lender
considerations
Supply chain
Workforce health and
safety
11-May 18-May
Both Food and Non-food retailers
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
29%
29%
29%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
43%
71%
71%
Other
Maintaining operations
eCommerce offerings
Delivery fulfilment
Product development
Financing/lenderconsiderations
Stakeholder
relationships
Remote working
capabilities
Transactions/expansion
Supply chain
Infrastructure gaps
Cashflow/cash
management
Optimising operations
Workforce health and
safety
7
Store reopening – Q2 2020
As lockdown restrictions ease, 59% of non-food retailers plan to reopen more than 60% of their store estate to customers by the end of June 2020; food retailers are more optimistic with two-thirds planning to utilise more than 80% of their store estate by the end of Q2.
Non-Food retailers Food & Grocery retailers Both Food and Non-food retailers
6%
12%
18%
6%
12%
47%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
0%
0%
0%
50%
0%
50%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
0%
33%
0%
0%
0%
67%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
18-May
Note: Please note that percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding-off error
Q4: What percentage of your store estate do you plan to have open by the end of June 2020?
8
Store reopening – Q3 2020
By the end of Q3 the majority of non-food retailers plan to have most of their stores open, however, there are still 12% of non-food retailers that are anticipating having 60% or less of their stores open, with 6% planning for stores to remain shut.
Non-Food retailers Food & Grocery retailers Both Food and Non-food retailers
6%
0%
0%
6%
6%
82%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
50%
50%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
0%
33%
0%
0%
0%
67%
None
1–20%
21–40%
41–60%
61–80%
81–100%
18-May
Q5: What percentage of your store estate do you plan to have open by the end of September 2020?
Note: Please note that percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding-off error
9
Appendix
10
61%
7%
25%
7%
Non-
Food
retailers
Food & Grocery
retailers
Week - May 11
Others
Both Food & Non-
Food retailers
Respondent profile
Q: Is your business predominantly a Food & Grocery retailer or a Non-Food retailer?
More than two-thirds of the respondents (70%) identified themselves as non-food retailers (both pure and mixed) in the sixth Retail Industry Sentiment Survey rolled out in week commencing May 18
63%
11%
7%
19%
Non-
Food
retailers
Food & Grocery
retailers
Week - May 18
Others
Both Food & Non-
Food retailers
11
Contacts
Please get in touch if you have any questions
Ian GeddesManaging Partner, UK RetailEmail: [email protected]: +44 20 7303 6519LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/iangeddes/
Ben PerkinsDirector, Consumer InsightEmail: [email protected]: +44 20 7007 2207LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-perkins-700888/
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