keohane & nye realism and complex interdependence - pp 49-58

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  • 8/11/2019 Keohane & Nye Realism and Complex Interdependence - Pp 49-58

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    4

    Realism

    nd

    Complex

    nterdependence

    RobertO.Keohane

    ndlosePh

    .

    Nye

    In this classic

    work, Robert

    Keohane

    and Joseph

    Nye offer

    a

    neoliberal

    cri-

    tique of

    the

    realist worldview.

    They

    assert hat

    in the

    post-Wot'ld

    War II

    era

    countries

    have

    become

    more

    and

    more intertwined

    economically.

    The

    explosivegrowth in the size and numberof transnationalcorporationshas

    blurred state

    boundaries,

    rendering

    traditional

    realist

    assumptions

    about

    the centrality

    of the

    state

    questionable.

    Realists ontend

    hat

    the state

    s the

    dominant

    actor

    in

    world

    politics and that

    military

    force

    and violence

    are

    the

    primary means

    by which

    states

    achieve

    their

    goals. Keohane

    and

    Nye

    p

    ro

    p

    os

    e an al

    t e nat v

    e ideal

    ty

    p

    e----c

    mp e

    x i nte

    de

    p

    endence-t

    hat

    empha

    -

    sizes

    cooperation

    rather than

    conflict.

    While

    the authors

    caution

    that

    vio-

    lence and

    conflict

    have

    not

    disappeared,

    hey

    point

    to the

    growing impor-

    tance of

    non-secur i ty-related

    ssues

    such

    as internat ional

    monetary

    relations and

    global

    environmental

    concerns.

    To

    them the

    day-to-day

    affairs of

    states

    have

    more

    to do

    with

    promoting

    cooperative

    economic

    interactions

    han

    with

    military

    and security

    matters.

    One's assumptions

    about

    world

    politics profoundly

    affect

    what one

    sees

    and how one constructs heories o explain events.We believe that the

    assumptions

    of

    political realists,

    whose theories

    dominated

    the

    postwar

    period,

    are

    often

    an inadequate

    basis

    for analyzing

    the

    politics of

    interde-

    pendence.The

    realist

    assumptions

    about

    world

    polit ics can

    be seen

    as

    defining an

    extreme

    set

    of conditions

    or

    ideal type.

    One

    could

    also

    magine

    very

    different

    conditions.

    In

    this chapter,

    we

    shall

    construct

    another

    deal

    Reprinted

    with

    permission of

    the

    publ isher

    from Power

    and

    Interdependence:

    World Politics

    inTr"ansition,2d

    edition,

    by

    Robert O.

    Keohane

    and Joseph

    S.

    Nye

    rGlenview,

    L: Pearson

    Education,

    nc.).

    Copyright

    O 1989 by

    Robert

    O.

    Keohane

    andJoseph

    .

    Nye,

    pp.23-25;29-37.

    49

  • 8/11/2019 Keohane & Nye Realism and Complex Interdependence - Pp 49-58

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    50

    ContendingYiewsoflPE

    type,

    the

    opposite

    of

    realism.

    We

    call

    \t complex

    interdependence'

    After

    esiablishing

    h"

    diff"."n"es

    between

    ealism

    and

    complex

    interdependence,

    we shall argue that complex interdependence ometimescomes closer to

    reality

    than

    does

    realism.

    when

    it

    does,

    raditional

    explanations

    of

    change

    in

    iniernational

    regimes

    become

    questionable

    and

    the

    search

    or

    new

    explanatory

    models

    becomes

    more

    urgent.

    '

    For

    politlcal

    realists,

    nternational

    politics,

    like

    all

    other

    politics,

    is a

    struggle

    o.

    po*".

    but,

    unlike

    domestic

    politics,

    a

    struggle

    dominated

    by

    organlred

    violence.

    . . .

    Three

    assumptions

    re

    integral

    to

    the

    realist

    vision.

    Fiist,

    states

    as coherent

    units

    are the

    dominant

    actors

    n

    world

    politics.

    This

    is a

    double

    assumption:

    statesare predominant;and they act as coherent

    units.

    Second,

    ealists

    assume

    hat

    force

    is a usable

    and

    effective

    nstrument

    of

    policy. Other

    instruments

    may

    also

    be

    employed,

    but

    using

    or

    threaten-

    ing

    force

    is the

    most

    effective

    means

    of

    wielding

    power'

    Third'

    partly

    beiause

    of

    their

    second

    assumption,

    ealists

    assume

    a hierarchy

    of

    issues

    n

    world

    politics,

    headed

    by

    questions

    of

    military

    security:

    he

    "high politics"

    of

    military

    security

    dominates

    he

    "low politics"

    of

    economic

    and

    social

    affairs.

    These

    realist

    assumptions

    define

    an

    ideal

    type

    of

    world

    politics.

    They

    allow

    us

    to

    imagine

    a world

    in

    which

    politics

    is

    continually

    characterized

    by

    active

    or

    potential

    conflict

    among

    states,

    with

    the

    use

    of

    force

    possible

    ai

    a.ry

    time.

    -Each

    state

    attempts

    to

    defend

    its

    territory

    and

    interests

    from

    real or

    perceived

    threats.

    Political

    integration

    among

    states

    s slight

    and

    lasts

    only

    as

    long

    as

    it serves

    he

    national

    interests

    of

    the

    most

    powerful

    states.

    Tiansnational

    actors

    either

    do

    not

    exist

    or

    are

    politically

    unimpor-

    tant. Only the adept exerciseof force or the threat of force permits states o

    survive,

    and

    only

    while

    statesmen

    ucceed

    n adjusting

    heir

    interests'

    as

    n

    a

    well-functioning

    balance

    of

    power'

    is

    the

    system

    stable'

    Each

    of the

    realist

    assumptions

    can

    be

    challenged.

    If

    we challenge

    them

    all simultaneously,

    we can

    imagine

    a

    world

    in which

    actors

    other

    than

    stares

    participate

    directly

    in world

    politics,

    in

    which

    a

    clear

    hierarchy

    of

    issues

    does

    not

    exist,

    and

    n

    which

    force

    is an

    ineffective

    nstrument

    of

    pol-

    icy.

    Under

    these

    conditions-which

    we

    call

    the characteristics

    f

    complex

    inierdependence-one

    would

    expect

    world

    politics

    to

    be

    very different than

    under

    realist

    conditions.

    The

    Characteristics

    of Complex

    lnterdependence

    Complex

    interdependqnce

    as

    hree

    main

    characteristics:

    1.

    Mul t ipte

    channels

    connect

    societ ies,

    ncluding:

    informal

    t ies

    between

    governmental

    elites

    as

    well as

    formal

    foreign

    office

    arrangements;

    informal

    ties

    among

    nongovernmental

    el i tes

    (face-to-face

    and

    through

    telecommunications);

    nd

    transnational

    organizations

    such

    as

    multination-

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    Robert

    O. Keohone&Joseph

    S.

    Nye

    5 |

    al

    banks or corporations).These

    channelscan be summarized

    as

    interstate,

    Iransgovernmental,

    nd transnational elations. nterstate

    relations

    are the

    normal channelsassumedby realists.Transgovernmental pplies when we

    relax

    the realist assumption

    hat statesact coherentlyas units; transnational

    rpplies

    when we relax

    the assumption hat statesare the

    only units.

    2. The agenda

    of

    interstate

    elationshipsconsists

    of

    multiple

    issues

    hat

    .rre

    not arranged n

    a clear or consistenthierarchy.This

    absence

    of'hierar-

    .-ht among

    isszes means, among other

    things, that

    military

    security

    does

    rot

    consistently

    dominate he agenda.Many issuesarise rom what

    used

    o

    :e considered

    domestic

    policy,

    and the distinction

    between domestic

    and

    :oreign

    ssues

    becomesblurred. These ssuesare

    considered

    n

    several

    gov-

    :rnment

    departments

    not

    just

    foreign

    offices), and at several levels.

    Inadequate olicy

    coordination

    on these

    ssues

    nvolves signif icant

    costs.

    Different

    issues

    generate

    different coalitions, both

    within

    governments

    and

    icross

    them, and nvolve

    different degreesof conflict. Politics doesnot

    stop

    ii the

    waters'edge.

    3. Military force is not used

    by

    governments

    oward other

    governments

    .i

    thin

    the region, or on the issues,when

    complex nterdependence

    revails.

    -:

    may,

    however,be important n

    these

    govemments'relations

    with

    govern-

    rents

    outside

    that

    region,

    or on other issues.Mil i tary force

    could, for

    :rstance,

    e

    irrelevant

    to resolving disagreements

    n economic issues

    :rriong

    members

    of an alliance,

    yet

    at the

    same ime be

    very

    important for

    ::at

    alliance'spolitical

    and military relations with

    a

    rival

    bloc. For the for-

    :er

    relationships

    his condition of complex interdependence ould

    be met;

    'rr

    the latter, t would

    not.

    Tradit ional

    theories

    of

    international

    polit ics

    implicit ly or

    explicit ly

    ::ny

    the accuracyof these

    hree assumptions. raditionalistsare

    therefore

    ':mpted

    also to deny the relevance

    of crit icisms basedon the

    complex

    :rerdependence

    deal type. We believe, however,

    hat our three conditions

    :::

    fairly well

    approximatedon some

    global

    issues

    of economic and

    eco-

    .,sical nterdependence

    nd that they

    come close to characteriz ing

    he

    ::.tire

    relationship

    between some

    countries.One of our

    purposes

    here is

    to

    ::.x'e that contention. In fPower and Interdependence:World Politics in

    -' tnsit ion

    we] examine

    complex

    interdependence

    n oceans

    policy

    and

    -

    rnetary policy

    and n

    the

    relationships

    of the United States o

    Canadaand

    :-::tralia.

    In this chapter, however,

    we shall try to convince

    you

    to take

    .-:'e

    criticisms of traditional

    assumptions eriously. . .

    The

    Polit ical Processes

    of Complex lnterdependence

    --3

    threemain

    characteristics f complex interdependence

    ive

    rise to dis-

    :tive political processes,

    which translate

    power

    resources nto power

    as

    -

    :.trol

    of outcomes.As we

    arguedearl ier, something s usually

    lost or

  • 8/11/2019 Keohane & Nye Realism and Complex Interdependence - Pp 49-58

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    52

    ContendingViewsoflpE

    added

    in

    the

    translation.

    Under

    condidor

    translation

    will

    be

    different

    than

    under

    l::|":"^T'Px

    interdependence

    the

    rions boururcomeslrneed,";;;d",:,j'#:1fiff;:, and urpredi

    In

    the

    real isr

    worrd,.r iur". t . . . i r i ty

    wir t

    be

    the

    dominant

    oal

    of

    ;fi?

    :::ffJr?

    "rrect

    ssues

    'r'"i"'"

    '",

    directlv

    nuoru'J

    i,h

    mlitary

    dinared

    o

    ,n'iruJl

    tt"lt::

    Nonmilitary.probrems

    will

    not

    onry

    be

    subor_

    imprications.

    ;;i"31i;:lflJliffJ,'

    *il:',r'"i''

    p"iiiil"-mlit

    at

    east

    as

    much

    n *'. ruii'^i;::: i:i::'

    Ior

    rnstance,

    ill

    be

    considered

    u,

    -

    tn"i,

    ;;;l;'r'ff":i"1';l',?ijl;Tfji"u'ion"io,'Lro;;J

    ener

    In

    a

    world

    of

    orricia,s,d;;;;Ti:nli"."H:lJl"l'Ji;,1,J,;:

    that

    must

    be

    pursued'

    n

    the

    "or"rr*

    "t'"

    crear

    hierarct

    y

    or

    ir*"r,

    gout,

    ;JllJffi:lil::,

    and

    mav

    'o,

    b;

    ;;;

    rerated.

    ach

    ureaucracy

    'r

    mjseson,,,"",-*,,"#i.?

    fl

    "Tr":ilHHi,;i:ffi

    J*i,"ffiH

    f

    policy

    is

    difficult.to,nuinruin.ilo;;"r,

    rransnarionalactorswill inrro_uce differenr goals into uuri

    r'

    g;;

    ;;"r;;

    r,

    ""r.

    Linkage

    Strategies

    Goals

    will

    therefore

    vary

    by

    issue

    area

    unde

    so

    will

    the

    distribution

    or

    o";;;;'ilrcomplex

    interdependence,

    but

    rradirionaraf,i,.ro"u,",n ; il#illi:XiH: Tt,H::T:1:

    ::d"ffLi,rl',fl

    :[::l'ff

    ffi

    ";J:::r.;l;*oi,i,o

    ;l*,ilffi'J;;

    i:'*:g;'$"";'1"""1i'i'J'"1#'

    ':T:lf

    ":

    h

    ir,

    "

    J

    ;;

    ,:"1iiT'i'",:':':lf,

    iT,

    ::fl#H:ffi

    l

    *ki

    nsure

    a

    congruence

    between

    the

    overat

    structure

    of

    military

    and

    economic

    il3ryifi:,HlT'i3:i#i::ffin ' *" ,,u","ui",'i"",i.",,-

    _

    Under

    complex

    interdependence,

    such

    occur.

    s

    mlitary

    orce

    s

    a"uaru"o,,_il;;j,T:**

    il:j"T,ii-r:lr.

    i:

    ore

    difficuh

    to

    use

    heir

    overall

    o"-ir""""

    a

    control

    outcomes

    n

    ssues

    n

    which

    rhey

    are

    weak.

    And

    ri"*

    ii"'o#ibution

    of

    power

    esources

    n

    rade,

    hipping,

    r

    ol,_fo,"-;;;i;;;"rii'o'r,"

    differenr,

    aterns

    of

    out_

    ,"r"rT""JTij;il,ff,ile

    olitical

    -""G

    ".""i,*o, "".v.lnion".r",r

    weehhgh,

    ";;'

    i.ilrffi

    i

    1'#i:llll,11i;,T

    lIl

    '#iff

    ,ll'g

    f

    power

    would

    not

    'iutt",

    very

    much.

    The

    tinkages

    drawn

    from

    them

    ro

    ilitary

    issues

    would

    ensure

    consistent

    dominance

    by

    the

    overalr

    strongest

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    Robert

    O.

    Keohone

    &/oseph

    S.

    Nye

    53

    ' : ' l res.

    But

    when

    miritary-Jorce

    s

    largery

    mmobil ized,

    strong

    states

    wil l

    r

    rd

    rhat

    inkage

    s

    less

    effective.

    They

    may

    sti i l

    artempr

    uchlinks,

    but

    in

    e

    absence

    f

    a hierarchy

    f issues,

    heir

    success

    ii l

    be

    problematic..

    Dominant statesmay try to securemuch the ,un-'"."rult by usingover-

    '"

    economic

    power

    to

    affect

    results

    on

    other

    issues.

    f

    only

    ".ono,ni.

    tectives

    are

    at

    stake,

    hey

    may

    succeed:

    money,

    after

    all ,

    is

    fungible.

    But

    :: 'rnomic

    objectives

    ave

    polit ical

    imprications,

    nd

    economic

    inkage

    by

    l

    strong

    s

    limited

    by

    domestic,

    ransnational,

    nd

    transgovernmental

    --:ors

    who

    resist

    having

    their

    interests

    raded

    off.

    Furthermor-e.

    he

    interna-

    . nal

    actors

    may

    be

    different

    on

    different

    issues,

    and

    the

    internatronar

    ::anizations

    n

    which

    negotiations

    ake

    prace

    are

    often

    quite

    separate.

    -.-rsit is diff icult, for example, o imaginea

    mil i tari ly

    or

    economically

    ':rn-g

    state

    inking

    concessions

    n

    monetary

    policy

    to

    reciprocal

    conces-

    rs

    in

    oceans

    olicy.

    on

    the

    other

    hand,

    poo.*.ui

    states

    re

    not

    similar_

    rnhibited

    rom

    linking

    unrerated

    ssues,

    partry

    because

    heir

    domestrc

    -:3rests

    are

    ess

    complex.

    Linkage

    of unrelated

    ssues

    s

    often

    a

    means

    of

    :

    ::rcting

    concessions

    r

    side payments

    rom

    rich

    and powerful

    states.

    And

    "-.:ke

    powerful

    states

    whose

    nstrument

    or

    l inkage

    (mil i tary

    force)

    is

    '

    3n

    too

    costly

    to

    use,

    he

    linkage instrumentusedby poo., ,"uk states_-

    :national

    organization_is

    available

    and

    nexpensive.

    Thus

    as

    the

    utility

    of

    force

    declines,

    and

    as issues

    become

    more

    equal

    -

    -:xportance,

    he

    distribution

    of

    power

    within

    each

    ssue

    wil l

    become

    :3

    lmportant.

    f

    linkages

    become

    ess

    effective

    on

    the

    whole,

    outcomes

    : rl i t ical

    bargaining

    wil l

    increasingly

    ary

    by

    issue

    area.

    The

    differentiation

    among

    issue

    areas

    n

    complex

    interdependence

    --::rs

    thot

    inkages

    among

    ssues

    wil l

    become

    more

    problematic

    nd

    wil l

    : - r ro reduce ather than reinforce nternationalhieraichy.Linkage strate_

    -: ' '

    and

    defense

    against

    hem,

    wi l l

    pose

    cr i t ical

    stra iegic

    chJices

    or

    -'"

    Should

    ssues

    e.considered

    eparately

    r

    as

    a

    package?

    f

    l inkages

    -

    -:

    r

    be

    drawn,

    which

    issues

    hould

    be l inked,

    and

    on

    which

    of

    the

    inked

    -:'

    should

    concessions

    e

    made?

    How

    far

    can

    one push

    a linkage

    befbre

    -:-trrres

    counterproductive?

    or

    instance,

    should

    one

    seek

    orm-al

    agree_

    ":-r '

    or

    informal,

    but

    less

    porit ically

    sensit ive,

    nderstandings?

    he

    fact

    "-"' iorld

    polit ics

    under

    complex

    nterdependence

    s not a sJamlessweb

    --'us

    to expect

    hat

    efforts

    o

    stitch

    seams

    ogether

    advantageously,

    s

    :::ed

    in

    l inkage

    strategies,

    i l l ,

    very

    often,

    determine

    he

    siape

    of

    the

    leenda

    Setting

    '- ':--ondassumption f comprex nterdependence,he lack of clearhier-

    -.

    :rron-g

    multiple

    ssues,

    eads

    us

    to

    expect

    hat

    the polit ics

    of

    agenda

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    54

    ContendingViews

    f IPE

    formation

    and control

    will

    become more important.

    Traditional

    analyses

    lead

    statesmeno focus

    on

    politico-military

    issues

    and to

    pay

    little

    attention

    to the broader politics of agenda formation. Statesmenassume hat the

    agendawill

    be set by

    shifts in the balance

    of

    power,

    actual or

    anticipated,

    and by

    perceived

    hreats

    o the security

    of states.

    Other issueswill

    only be

    very

    important

    when

    they seem to

    affect security

    and military

    power.

    In

    these cases,

    agendas

    will be influenced

    strongly

    by considerations

    of the

    overall balance

    of

    power.

    Yet, today,

    some

    nonmilitary issues

    are emphasized

    n interstate

    ela-

    tions at one

    time, whereas

    othersof seemingly equal importanceare neg-

    lected

    or

    quietly

    handled

    at a

    technical evel. Intemational

    monetary poli-

    tics,

    problems

    of

    commodity

    terms of trade,

    oil, food, and multinational

    corporations

    have

    all been important

    during

    the last decade;

    but not all

    have been high

    on interstate

    agendas

    hroughout

    that

    period.

    Traditional

    analysts

    of international politics

    have

    paid

    little

    attention

    to agenda ormation:

    to how issues

    come to receive

    sustained

    attention by

    high

    officials. The

    traditional

    orientation toward

    military

    and security

    affairs implies that the crucial problems of foreign policy are imposed on

    states

    by the actions

    or

    threats of other

    states.These are high politics

    as

    opposed

    o the low politics

    of economic affairs.

    Yet, as the

    complexity

    of

    actors

    and issues n

    world

    politics

    increases,

    he utility

    of

    force

    declines

    and the

    line between

    domestic policy

    and foreign policy

    becomesblurred:

    as

    the conditions

    of complex interdependence

    re more

    closely approxi-

    mated,

    he

    politics

    of

    agenda ormation

    becomesmore

    subtle and differen-

    tiated.

    Under

    complex

    interdependence

    we can

    expect the agenda

    to be

    affected by

    the international

    and domestic problems

    created

    by economic

    growth

    and increasing

    sensitivity interdependence.

    . Discontented

    domesticgroups

    wil l

    polit icize

    ssuesand force

    more ssues

    once consid-

    ered

    domestic

    onto the interstate

    agenda.

    Shifts in the

    distribution

    of

    power

    resources

    within

    setsof issueswill

    also affect

    agendas.During

    the

    early 1970s

    he increasedpower

    of

    oil-producing

    governments

    over the

    transnat ional

    corporat ions

    and the

    consumer countr ies

    dramatical ly

    altered the

    policy

    agenda.

    Moreover,

    agendas or

    one

    group

    of issues

    may

    change

    as a result

    of linkages from

    other

    groups

    in which

    power

    resources

    are

    changing; for

    example, the

    broader agenda

    of North-South

    trade

    issues changed

    after

    the OPEC

    price

    rises and

    the oil embargo

    of

    1973-74.

    Even

    if capabil i t ies

    among

    statesdo not

    change,agendas

    may

    be affected

    by shifts

    in the importance

    of transnational

    actors. The pub-

    licity surrounding multinational corporations n the early 1970s,coupled

    with their

    rapiil

    growth

    over the

    past

    twenty

    years,

    put

    the regulation

    of

    such corporations

    higher

    on both

    the United Nations

    agenda

    and national

    agendas.

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    Robert .

    Keohone

    Joseph.Nye

    55

    Tran

    snational

    and Tran sgove

    rn

    m ental Relati on s

    .'-: :hird condition of complex interdependence, ultiple channelsof con-

    ,,-:

    rmong

    societies, urther blurs the distinction betweendomestic

    and

    -:::rational

    politics.

    The availability of

    partners

    n

    political

    coalitions is

    '

    . recessar i ly

    imi ted

    by

    nat ional

    boundar ies

    as t radi t ional

    analysis

    -'-

    -:nes.

    The nearera

    situation

    s to

    complex

    interdependence,he

    more we

    :

    ':e--t

    the outcomes

    of

    political

    bargaining o be affectedby transnational

    -:

    :tit1rlS.

    Multinational corporationsmay be significantboth as ndependent

    ;ui r,ri

    &fld as instrumentsmanipulatedby

    governments.

    The attitudes

    and

    :,

    --\

    standsof domesticgroupsare likely to be affected by communica-

    :

    .--.

    organized

    or

    not,

    between hem

    and heir counterparts broad.

    Thus

    the existenceof multiple channelsof contact

    leads

    us to expect

    -.:..

    beyond

    those

    normally found in

    domestic

    politics,

    on the ability of

    ::ri:rnn

    to calculate he manipulationof

    interdependence

    r

    follow

    a con-

    .::rt

    strategyof linkage.

    Statesmen

    must considerdifferential

    as

    well

    as

    --::3gate

    effects

    of

    interdependence

    trategies

    nd their likely implications

    -

    :r-rliticization

    and agendacontrol.

    Transactionsamong

    societies-eco-

    -, .:-i,-

    and

    social transactions

    more

    than security ones-affect

    groups

    differ-

    :-:. ' ..

    Qppeltunitiesand costs rom increased ransnational ies may be

    :-::i3r

    for

    certain

    groups-for

    instance,American workers n the textile or

    ,-,

    e industries-than

    for others.Some organizations r

    groups

    may interact

    :

    :::tlv with

    actors n other societiesor with other

    governments

    o increase

    :,..: benefits

    rom a network of interaction.Some actorsmay thereforebe

    .:'-

    rulnerable

    as well as ess sensitive o changes lsewhere n the network

    r;r .lrothers,and his will affectpatternsof political action.

    The multiple

    channels of

    contact found in complex interdependence

    :i: rr-rt

    imited to nongovernmental ctors.

    Contacts

    between

    governmental

    -'-::rucracies

    chargedwith similar tasks may not only alter their

    perspec-

    ::

    but lead to transgovernmentalcoalitions on

    particular policy ques-

    r.'. To improve

    their chancesof success,

    ovemment

    agenciesattempt o

    ' -

    : - i actors

    rom other

    governments

    nto thei r own decision -making

    :r.rsrses

    as allies. Agencies of

    powerful

    statessuch as the

    United States

    :;. i used such coalitions to penetrateweaker governments n such coun-

    :-:i irs

    Turkey and

    Chile.

    They have

    also been

    used

    to

    help

    agenciesof

    r--":f

    governments

    enetrate

    he United States

    bureaucracy.l

    .

    .

    The existence

    of transgovernmental

    olicy

    networks leads

    o a differ-

    :- :nterpretation

    of one of

    the standard

    propositions

    about international

    :,

    -:1 -s-that

    states

    act in

    their own

    interest.

    Under

    complex interdepend-

    :--:.

    this conventionalwisdom

    begs wo

    important

    questions:

    which

    self

    .- :

    '*

    hich interest?A

    government

    agency

    may

    pursue

    ts

    own

    interests

    --:rr the guise of the national interest; and recurrent nteractionscan

    --.1S

    official

    perceptions

    ftheir

    interests.

    . .

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    56 ContendingViewsoflPE

    The ambiguity

    of the national

    interest raises serious

    problems

    for the

    top

    political leaders

    of

    governments.As

    bureaucracies

    ontact each

    other

    directly acrossnational borders

    (without

    going

    through

    foreign

    offices),

    centralized

    control becomes

    more difficult.

    There is less assurance hat the

    state

    will be united

    when

    dealing

    with foreign

    governments

    or that

    its

    com-

    ponents

    will interpret national

    interests similarly

    when negotiating

    with

    foreigners.

    The state may

    prove

    to

    be multifaceted,

    even schizophrenic.

    National

    interests will be defined

    differently on different

    issues,at different

    times,

    and by different

    governmental

    units. States that

    are better

    placed

    to

    maintain

    their coherence

    (because

    of a

    centralized

    political

    tradition such

    as France's) will be better able to manipulate uneven interdependence han

    fragmented states

    that at first

    glance

    seem

    to have more

    resources in an

    issuearea.

    Role of lnternational Organizations

    Finally, the existence

    of multiple channels

    leads one to

    predict a different

    and significant

    role for international organizations

    n world

    polit ics.

    Realists in the

    tradition

    of

    Hans J. Morgenthau

    have

    portrayed

    a

    world in

    which states,

    acting from self-interest, struggle

    for "power and

    peace."

    Security issues are

    dominant; war threatens.

    In such a world, one

    may

    assume hat

    international institutions will

    have a minor role,

    limited

    by

    the

    rare congruence of such

    interests. International

    organizations are then

    clearly

    peripheral

    to world

    politics. But in a world of

    multiple issues mper-

    fectly linked, in which coalitions are formed transnationally and transgov-

    emmentally,

    the

    potential role

    of

    intemational

    institutions in

    political

    bar-

    gaining

    is

    greatly increased. In

    particular,

    they

    help set the international

    agenda, and act as

    catalysts for coalition-formation

    and as arenas

    or

    politi-

    cal initiatives and

    linkage by weak states.

    Governments

    must

    organize

    themselves o cope

    with the flow of busi-

    ness

    generated

    by international organizations.

    By defining

    the salient issues,

    and

    deciding which issues can be

    grouped

    together, organizations

    may help

    to determine

    governmental priorities and the nature of

    interdepartmental

    committees and other arrangements

    within

    governments.

    The 1972

    Stockholm

    Environment

    Conference

    strengthened

    he

    position

    of environ-

    mental agencies

    n various

    governments

    The

    1974 World Food Conference

    focused the attention of important

    parts

    of the United States

    govemment

    on

    prevention

    of food shortages.

    The

    September

    1975 United

    Nations special

    sessionon

    proposa]s

    or a New

    International Economic Order

    generated

    an

    intragovernmental debate about policies toward the Third World in general.

    The Intemational Monetary

    Fund and the General Agreement

    on Tariffs and

    Trade have

    focused

    govemmental

    activity on money

    and trade instead of on

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    Table

    4. I Political

    Processes

    Under

    Conditions

    of Realism

    and Complex

    Interdependence

    Realism Complex Interdependence

    Goals of

    actors

    Instruments

    of

    state

    policy

    Asenda

    formation

    Linkages

    of

    issues

    Roles

    of

    intemational

    organizations

    Military

    security

    will be

    the

    dominant

    goal.

    Military

    force

    will be

    most

    effective,

    although

    economic

    and other instruments will also

    be used.

    Potentialshifts

    n the balance

    of

    power and security

    threats

    will set he

    agenda

    n high

    politics and

    will stronglY

    influence

    other

    agendas.

    Linkages

    will reduce

    differences

    in outcomes

    among

    issue

    areasand

    reinforce

    intemational

    hierarchy.

    Roles are

    minor, limited

    by

    state

    power and

    the importance

    of

    military

    force.

    Goals

    of states

    will vary bY

    issue

    area.

    Transgovemmental

    politics will

    make

    goals difficult

    to

    define.

    Transnational

    actors

    will

    pursue heir own

    goals.

    Power

    resources

    pecific

    to

    issueareas

    will

    be

    most

    relevant.Manipulation

    of

    interdependence.

    ntemational

    organizations.

    nd

    transnational

    actors

    will

    be

    major

    instruments.

    Agenda

    will be affected

    by

    changes

    n the

    distribution

    of

    power

    resources

    within issue

    areas;

    he status

    of intemational

    regimes;

    changes

    n

    the

    importance

    of transnational

    actors; inkages rom other

    issuesand

    politicization

    as a

    result of

    rising sensitivity

    interdependence.

    Linkages

    by strong

    states

    will

    be more

    difficult

    to make

    since

    force

    will be

    ineffective.

    Linkages

    by weak

    states

    through

    intemational

    organizations

    will

    erode rather

    than

    reinforce

    hierarchy.

    Organizations

    will set

    agendas,

    induce

    coalition-formation,

    and

    act

    as arenas

    or

    political action

    by weak

    states.

    bility to

    choose

    the organizational

    forum for an

    issue and

    to

    mobilize

    votes

    will be

    an

    important

    political resource.

    private

    direct

    investment,

    which

    has

    no comparable

    international

    orgailza-

    tion.

    By bringing

    officials

    together,

    international

    organizations

    help to

    acti-

    vate

    potential coalitions

    in world

    politics. It is

    quite

    obvious

    that

    interna-

    tional organizations

    have

    been

    very

    impofiant

    in bringing

    together

    repre-

    sentativesof less developedcountries,most of which do not maintain

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    58

    ContendingViewsoflPE

    embassies

    n one another's

    capitals.

    Third

    World strategies

    of

    solidarity

    among

    poor countries

    have been developed

    in and for a

    series of

    interna-

    tional conferences,mostly under the auspicesof the United Nations.2

    International

    organizations

    also allow

    agencies

    of

    governments,

    which

    might

    not otherwise

    come

    into contact,

    to tum

    potential

    or

    tacit coalitions

    into explicit

    transgovernmental

    coalitions

    characterized

    by

    direct commu-

    nications.

    In some

    cases,

    nternational secretariats

    deliberately

    promote this

    process by forming

    coalitions

    with

    groups

    of

    governments, or with

    units

    of

    governments,

    as well as

    with nongovemmental

    organizations

    having simi-

    lar interests.3

    International

    organizations

    are frequently

    congenial

    institutions

    for

    weak states.

    The one-state-one-vote

    orm

    of the United

    Nations

    system

    favors

    coalitions of

    the small and

    powerless. Secretariats

    are often

    respon-

    sive to

    Third

    World demands.

    Furthermore,

    the substantive

    norms of

    most

    international

    organizations,

    as they

    have developed

    over

    the

    years, stress

    social

    and economic

    equity

    as well as

    the equality

    of states.

    Past

    resolu-

    tions expressing

    Third World

    positions,

    sometimes

    agreed to

    with

    reserva-

    tions by industrialized countries, are used to legitimize other demands.

    These agreements

    are

    rarely binding,

    but up

    to a

    point

    the

    norms of the

    institution

    make opposition

    look more

    harshly self-interested

    and

    less

    defensible.

    . . .

    Complex

    interdependence

    therefore

    yields

    different

    political

    pattems

    than does

    the realist

    conception of

    the world.

    (Table

    4.1 summarizes

    these

    differences.)

    Thus, one

    would expect

    traditional

    theories

    to fail

    to explain

    international regime change n situations of complex interdependence.

    But,

    for a situation

    that approximates

    realist conditions,

    traditional

    theories

    should

    be appropriate.

    . .

    .

    Notes

    I .

    For a moredetailed

    discussion,

    eeRobert

    O. Keohane

    nd Joseph

    S. Nye'

    Jr.,"Transgovernmentalelationsand ntemationalOrganizati ns,"Word Polit cs

    27,

    no. |

    (October

    197 ): 39-62.

    2. Branislav

    Gosovic

    and JohnGerard

    Ruggie,

    On the

    Creation

    of a New

    International

    Economic

    Order:

    IssueLinkage

    and the Seventh

    Special

    Session

    f

    the

    UN General

    Assembly,"

    nternationalOrganization

    0,

    no. 2

    (Spring

    1976):

    30946.

    3.

    RobertW. Cox,

    "The

    ExecutiveHead,"

    nternationalOrganization

    3,

    no'

    2

    (Spring

    1969):

    205-30.