keis0s2 is stages 2008
DESCRIPTION
"Knowledge economy and Information society" course seminar 2 2008TRANSCRIPT
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
“All the World’s a Stage”Ian Miles – Manchester Institute of Innovation
Research
MBS - University of [email protected]
Knowledge Economy and Information Society
2 – Information Society Evolution
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Course material should be available on webct – but in the
meantime go tohttp://www.freewebs.com/mioir/keisintro.htm
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
This seminar:
• Sociotechnical approach to Information Society
• Technological Revolutions• Stages of Information Society?
• Information Systems Evolution – stages and strategies?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Understanding Information Society
• All economic sectors (and all human activities) involve producing and processing information; and many also require sharing and storing it.
• Knowledge about information production and processing has accumulated and evolved. Historically there have been major new methods (e.g. writing and arithmetic; abacus and printing; telegraphy and telephony, analogue photography and phonography; radio and TV…) with significant implications for socioeconomic organisation.
• New IT - electricity electronics microelectronics, new devices and ideas like software, dataware (e-content), interactivity, etc.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Sociotechnical Approach to Information Society
• New IT - electricity electronics microelectronics, new devices and ideas like software, dataware (e-content), interactivity, etc.
• Scope for application of New Information and Communication Technologies (business processes), new forms of traded information, new communications services (products)
• Potential for change in role and style of information processing in all sectors and in many noneconomic activities ...
CHRIS FREEMAN’s classes of Innovation: Incremental ------ Radical ------------ Revolutionary Local, minor change in product or process
Substantial change usually based on new understanding
Major and wide-ranging change based on breakthroughs of far-reaching significance
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Revolutionary Technology
Carlota Perez: see classic 1981 paper http://www.carlotaperez.org/index.htm –
What makes an innovation revolutionary rather than incremental or radical?
It needs to be a new “key factor” with properties such as• Cheap enough to be widely used (clearly perceived low &
descending relative cost)• Practically unlimited supply• Highly pervasive – i.e. provides widely-useful capability• Use is liable to reduce costs of capital, labour & products, & to
change them qualitatively• Generally socially/politically acceptable
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
An IT Revolution?
• Dramatic & continuing: power increases (new capabilities), cost decreases
• Widespread applicability (information & or information
processing power) as factor of production• Effectively no resource limits (skills??)• Little social resistance (around generics -
may be contention about specific uses)• ACTORS’ PERCEPTIONS - opportunities seized to
produce new products and processes, new practices, calculus and “common sense”
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
A Sociotechnical Approach – Eras as related to Technological revolutions:
• New knowledge of effecting useful transformations new practices
• a new heartland technology – when new knowledge produces major improvement in capacity to effect pervasive transformations
• This promotes dramatic change in availability of a core element of production
• Meaning the use of new production equipment • Organised in new production processes changed logic of
production• With new products for industrial and consumer use (and
often in a leading role – military and other public sector use)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Opportunities are grasped…
• Innovation in and around new IT• New processes of production, new
products Labour, Capital, Knowledge inputs
• Changed use of factors of production • Changes in organisational structure• Changed linkages between
organisations• Changed consumption
…leading to widespread change
Not IMPACTS – strategies,
counterstrategies, partial knowledge and visions
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Technological revolutions - social phenomena, involving:
• New Sociotechnical Constituencies (Molina)
• Government Action on Innovation and Diffusion
• New processes, products: proliferating choice
• New Firms, Industries, Linkages between industries
• New skills, Management approaches
• Rhetoric precedes systematic analysis of policy, ethical
issues, & wider implications • Hype and mythology; Heroes
and villains• Novel risks; Uncertainties
about long-term performance• Lengthy learning processes
• Platforms, standards, dominant designs: Closure of
some choices
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Sociotechnical Approach:
• Revolutionary technology: new capabilities – but actors have uneven access to knowledge and resources; they have cognitive constraints; and learning processes are important
• There are real (but evolving) limits to functionality of artefacts and applicability of knowledge
• Constituencies need to be mobilised to develop and apply knowledge (sometimes against opposition) – it is not costless
• Materiality of technology -> constrained ability to effect transformations in material world, constrained ability to invent effective technologies
• Constraints in part cognitive, and learning processes important: but real limits to functionality of artefacts and applicability of knowledge
• Interplay of actors and their strategies generates development and application of knowledge– Unanticipated consequences; new actors, alliances, ways of acting
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Is Information Society evolving?
• Earlier phases of industrial capitalism have differed considerably over time and space - reflecting differences in culture, politics, technology
• Information societies - a genre of industrial capitalism - are currently diverse
• We can anticipate variation among information societies – despite globalisation, etc. (But how much and on what dimensions?)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
For example: •no. of transistors per unit, •no. of bits communicated, •no.of instructions processed per second
Evolution of Computing: Moore’s Law etc.
Var
ious
mea
sure
s of
com
pute
r pow
er
Envelope curve (systems of all types)
Time
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
source: http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/UbiHome.html
Evolution of Computing: Mark Weiser’s Overview
Sal
es/Y
ear
Envelope curve (systems of all types)
MAINFRAME: one computer serves many people
PC: one -----computer per person
UBIQUITY: ---many ---------computers per person
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/Insight/ViewContentServlet?Filename=Published/EmeraldFullTextArticle/Pdf/2720070203.pdf
DistantLocal
Mobile
Ubiquitous
Information Society v1.0 - v4.0
1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
DistantLocal
Mobile
Ubiquitous
1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?
Information Society v1.0
One computer to many users “Come here”
Expensive Systems requiring… Expert Users using…
Crude Peripherals for… Number-Crunching
Centralising influence Policies:National Computer
Industry Plans
Information Technology (Mainframes)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
DistantLocal
Mobile
Ubiquitous
1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?
Information Society v2.0Information Technology (PCs)
“At your desk”
One to one/several
Stand alone systems
Challenge to DP centres
Powerful local processing: many
applicationsModerate skills required,
simplified interfaces (WIMP/GUIs)
Pervasive use by Professionals
Policies: IT and telecomms R&D
programmes
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
DistantLocal
Mobile
Ubiquitous
1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?
Information Society v3.0Information Technology (Notebooks, Web)
“Reaching out” and “Getting around”
Several to one User-friendly Cheap, Accessible Portable Simple Networking Many devices with
embedded IT
Policies:Information
Society, Superhighway
Dedicated/ multifunction• Delayering
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
DistantLocal
Mobile
Ubiquitous
1960s/ 70s 1980s/ mid90s mid1990s/ 2000s 2010s?/?
Information Society v4.0Information Technology (AmI) “Surrounding you”/
“Ambient” Many to one Disposable/ wearable/ “Invisible”
Pervasive Networking Numerous interoperable devices, networks
Location, identification, monitoring, tagging
Organisation: Googleocracy?
Net governance? Policies: Privacy? Security? Data Protection ?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Four “phases” of Information Society
Islands Archipelago
Continent
Ecosystem
1960s/70s 1980s/90s 1990s/2000s ?2010
Distant Local Mobile Ubiquitous
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Evolution of Information Society: Some Issues
• Great diversity across phases - some continuities, some vast differences – can we extrapolate,
then?•Great diversity across countries (regions,
social groups) - like earlier stages of industrial society - not solely result of policy choices. E.g. Minitel,
mobile communications.
• Great organisational diversity in use of available IT - just as with other technologies - not
solely result of sectoral/size differences. E.g centralising/decentralising applications of IS.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Additional Powerpoints
• More detail on Moore’s Law etc.• Check out KEIS for background
readings for next week, on IT and IS statistics.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
End of Presentation
(if there is not time for the remaining slides!)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Moore’s Law (original)
Number of transistors on a chip –
Gordon Moore (Intel) noted in 1965 that this was doubling every 18 months (these data – 2 years)
This example from: http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0593.html?printable=1
Try a google/ google image
search on “Moore’s Law”.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Moore’s Law (original)
Number of transistors on a chip –
Image from Wikipedia
Try a google/ google image
search on “Moore’s Law”.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
1960 1970 1980 1990
Millions ofInstructions
per second(MIPS)
100
10
1.0
0.1
.01
Moore’s Law: Computer Power
MainframeMinicompr PCEmbedded
From a Scientific American article
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Moore’s Law (extended)Estimate of PROCESSING POWER (and cost) KurzweilImage from Wikipedia
“Moore's Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turing's relay-based "Robinson" machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal [computers]. “
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Power increase, price decrease
1.6 years
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Similar trends – sometimes even more rapid – for many other elements of IT
Even Hard Disc Drives!
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
More attractive technology – cheaper, powerful: liable to be adopted
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
But is it a “Law”?• People like to search for regularities – maybe they’re
imputing trends where they don’t exist?• If the trends exist, even if not as rigid and
predictable as commentators suggest, how can we understand them?
• Giovanni Dosi’s notion of technological trajectory (and paradigm) is useful here…
• Expectations forged in communities of practice, used as benchmarks which competing firms/ researchers pursue. Expectations need to be realistic in terms of tools, techniques, costs, transformative potentials.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Law and Order
• Many other “laws”• People like to search for regularities – maybe
they’re imputing trends where they don’t exist?
• Look on the Web for the debates between Ray Kurzweil and Ilkka Tuomi: cf. Tuomi’s original paper “Life and Death of Moore’s Law” at http://www.jrc.es/~tuomiil/articles/TheLivesAndTheDeathOfMoore.pdf
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The Information Society - 2006Knowledge Economy and Information Society - 2008
Tuomi’s Analysis• Moore changed his formulation (doubling time from 12 to 18
months, and specific parameters from optimal to maximum complexity)
• People citing Moore continued to modify the formulation (per square inch, “processing power”)
• Data bearing out the argument are often used in misleading ways (e.g. real doubling time?)
• … doesn’t really diminish the case that there has been a remarkable accelerating long-run technological evolution, though…
• There are many arguments suggesting that at some time soon the applicability of the Law will be reduced – difficulties of working with increasingly small scale. (But so far slow-down / halt has been resisted).
• There are bottlenecks where progress has been slow (e.g. laptop batteries)