keene state college human cultural mosaic isgeog203 fall ‘09 professor: dr. rydant created by:...

Keene State Col lege

Human Cul tura l Mosaic

ISGEOG203 Fal l ‘09

Professor: Dr. Rydant

Created by: Apr i l Buzby

Supplemental Instructor

The Demographic Transition

2

Introduction

April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country.

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1875

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CBR CDR Population

Pre-Industrial Transitional Industrial Post-Industrial

3

Introduction


Population Pyramid Shows the distribution population by age and sex A specific age group (i.e. ages 0-4) is called a cohort. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably

different population pyramids

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

% Females

% Males

Percent (%)

Ag

e C

las

s

4

Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Period


Crude Birth Rate: High

Crude Death Rate: High

Rate of Natural Increase: Fluctuating

Examples: Britain in the 17th and 18th century; some remote Amazon tribes

1600 1650 1700 1750

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

CDR CBR Population

5

Stage 1: Birth Rate


Birth Rate is high due to:

Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate Need for workers in

agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic

assets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

6

Stage 1: Death Rate


Death Rate is high due to:

Disease Famine Lack of clean water and

sanitation Lack of health care War Limited food supply Lack of education

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

7

Stage 1: Population Change


Population Change

Due to high birth and death rates, population is stable.

Population Growth Rate: ≤ 1%

Doubling Time: ~100 years

Series1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

8

Stage 1: Age Structure


Population Pyramid Shape: Concave triangular

Age Structure of Population: Rapid fall in each age group due to high death rates Short life expectancy

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

% Females

% Males

Percent (%)

Age Class

9

Stage 2: Transitional Period


Crude Birth Rate: High

Crude Death Rate: Decreasing

Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing

Examples: Britain late 18th Century to mid-19th Century, Kenya

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

CBR CDR Population

10

Stage 2: Birth Rate


Birth Rate remains high due to:

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 4.56 People are used to having

many children. Takes time for culture to change

Religious beliefs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

11

Stage 2: Death Rate


Death Rate decreasing due to:

Improved hygiene Improved sanitation Improved food production

and storage Improved transport for

food

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

12



Population Change

“Population Explosion" - gap between deaths and births grows wider.

England’s Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions.

LDC cause of today’s population explosion

Population Growth rate: 3%

Doubling Time: 18-20 years

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

13



Population Pyramid Shape: Triangular

Age structure of Population: Growing young dependant population Increasingly youthful age structure Accelerating population growth

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

% Females

% Males

Percent (%)

Age Class

14

Stage 3: Industrial Period


Crude Birth Rate: Decreasing

Crude Death Rate: Continues to decrease

Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing but at a slower rate

Examples: Britain early 20th century; Brazil; Mexico

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CBR CDR Population

15

Stage 3: Birth Rate


Birth Rate decreasing due to:

TFR: 2.05 Improvements in

contraceptive technology. Changes in values about

children and sex. Parents need fewer children. Rising costs of dependent

children to a family. Valuation of women beyond

motherhood. Working women have less

time to devote to child rearing. 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

16

Stage 3: Death Rate


Death Rate low due to:

Better Health Care Vaccinations Better understanding

of the spread of diseases

Pre-natal care Improved sanitation

(i.e. indoor plumbing) Improved quality and

quantity of food

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

17



Population Change

Large 15-45 cohort equals continued population growth

Population Growth rate: ≤ 1%

Doubling Time: 65 years

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

18



Population Pyramid Shape: Columnar

Age structure of Population: Decreasing TFR Bulge in the reproductive cohorts Narrowing pyramid base

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

% Females

% Males

Percent (%)

Age Class

19

Stage 4: Post-Industrial Period


Crude Birth Rate: Low

Crude Death Rate: Low

Rate of Natural Increase: Stable

Examples: Britain late-20th century; Sweden; Japan

1975

1988

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

CBR CDR Population

20

Stage 4: Birth Rate


Birth Rate low due to:

TFR: 2.1 Family planning Good health Improved status of

women Later marriages

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

21

Stage 4: Death Rate


Death Rate low due to:

Improved health care High quantity and quality

of food supply

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

22



Population Change

TFR falls to replacement fertility levels (2.1)

Zero Population Growth (ZPG) reached

Stable but high population size

Population Growth rate: >1%

Doubling Time: ~1000 years

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

23



Population Pyramid Shape: Inverted

Age structure of Population: Characterized by stability. Age structure becomes older.

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

% Females

% Males

Percent (%)

Age Class

24

A Fifth Stage?


The original Demographic Transition Model has just four stages; however in some cases the fertility rate falls well below replacement level and population decline sets in rapidly. It is theorized that a fifth stage is necessary to account for this demographic stage.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

CBR CDR Population

Example: RomaniaCBR: 10.53CDR: 11.88TFR: 1.39Population Growth : -0.147%

25

Modern Applicability


Generalization from European experience

Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth

Assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate.

Assumes that countries will go through all the stages.

Some countries may skip stages.

Does not account for migration.

Does not take into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women.

Some countries are in a demographic trap and can not progress

26

The Human Development Index and the DTM


Fertility declines at low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) levels

Theorizes that advanced HDI promotes a rebound in fertility. In many countries with very high levels of development (around 0.95)

fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman.

Example: Netherlands

CBR: 12

CDR: 9

TFR: 1.7

Population Growth : 0.7

HDI: 0.953 (9th)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

CBR CDR Population

27

Conclusion


Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country. Used to indicate future birth rates, death rates , and the population size

of developing countries Generalization from European experience Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and

increased wealth Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably

different population pyramids

28

Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people.

Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the annual number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49 years old.

Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births.

Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.

Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r).

Doubling Time: the number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth.

Replacement Fertility: the level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population.

Population Momentum: the tendency of population growth to continue after the TFR achieves replacement fertility levels.

Glossary


29

Sources


CIA World Factbook

Domosh , M., Neumann, R.P., Price, P.L., Jodan-Bychkov, T.G., (2009). The human mosaic, eleventh edition.

Montgomery, Keith. The demographic transition

Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., and Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009).

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. International Data Base (IDB).

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Reports.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html



http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/full/nature08230.html

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/informationGateway.php

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

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