kebijakan ketahananenergi sesuaikonsepnexus 2018/19042018-presentasi fgd... · 19/04/2018 2...
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19/04/2018
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http://sesp.ui.ac.id/
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Kebijakan Ketahanan EnergiSesuai Konsep Nexus
FDG Lintas Komtek Pangan & Pertanian dan Energi
Sinergi Riset dan Innovasi BioEnergi pada Era Industri4.0 untuk Mendukung Ketahanan Energi dan Pangan
Widodo Wahyu PurwantoKomtek Energi
Dewan Riset Nasional
Outline
Isu Penting Sektor EnergiKetahanan Energi. Definisi & ESIKetahanan Energi & NexusRekomendasi
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Isu PentingSektor Energi
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Ketergantungan import BBM
‐160
‐140
‐120
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
Tahun
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
South Korea
New Zeland
Thailand
Source: OPEC, 2014, 20174
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Ketergantungan impor LPG
‐80,00
‐70,00
‐60,00
‐50,00
‐40,00
‐30,00
‐20,00
‐10,00
0,00
10,00
(%)
Tahun
Source: MEMR, 2017 5
Stockholding minyak terbatas
APEC: Minimum holding of 30 days of net import levelIEA: Minimum holding of 90 days of net import level
Indonesia 21 hari dari konsumsi ?
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Trade specialization index% permintaan listrik menurun
Source: ABD, 2014
• Demand electricity <• consumptive &
services sector > • Manufacture sector <
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Produktivitas sektoral rendah
Source: IRENA, 2017
Source: Vivadinar et al, Energy Sci and Eng, 20168
Transportation sector
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High CO2 intensity of electricity
Source: IEA, 2016
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Era digitalization in energy, In which area of energy business
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Digitalization is transforming the way the electricity system functions
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The different building blocks of electricity markets
Source: IEA12
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Electrification of heating and transport and blockchain trading system
Source: IEA13
Ketahanan Energi. Definisi dan ESI
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Definisi ketahanan energiIEA, ketahanan energi adalah “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.
EU, ketahanan energy adalah “the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market, at a price which is affordable for all consumers (private and industrial)”.
Definisi ketahanan energi jangka panjang: 4A, 4AS: WEC (ESI/ETI), WEF (EAPI), Yergin, Sovacool (ESI), Ang (ISI)
Definisi ketahanan energi bersifat kontektual (tergantung pembuat/pengguna) dan dinamis, indikator, weighting danmetode scoring yang variatif, isu spasial.
Riset energy security relatif masih baru dalam sisi metodologi, belum ada prosedur yang dapat diterima secara luas.
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“Security, independence, and sustainability: Imprecise language and the manipulation of energy policy in the United States”, Littlefield, Energy Policy, 2013.
“Three blind men and a elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability”, Narula & Reddy, Energy, 2015
“Energy security is a politicized and multifaceted topic. There is a considerable array of overlapping and competing conceptualizations”, Cox, Energy Research & Social Science, 2016
“Arbitrariness in Multidimensional Energy Security Indicators”,
Valdes, Ecological Economics, 2018
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Short-term Energy Security (MOSES)- IEA
MOSES focuses on short‐term energy security: vulnerability to physical disruptions.Taking an energy systems approach, MOSES identifies a set of indicators for externalrisks (from energy imports) and for domestic risks (from transformation anddistribution) as well as for resilience – a country’s capacity to deal withdifferent types of disruptions.
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Short-term Energy Security (MOSES)- IEA
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Selft sufficiency index
Source: ADB, 201319
Energy security index (ESI) - Sovacool
Source: Sovacool et al. 2011, 201320
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Energy Sustainability Index (ESI)/Energy Trilemma Index (ETI) - WEC
Source: WEC, 201721
ETI Indonesia
Source: WEC, 201722
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Energy achitecture performance index(EAPI)- WEF
Source: WEF, 201723
Indonesia
Source: WEF, 2017
EAPI Indonesia
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Energy Security Index Indonesia
25Source: Erahman et al, 2016
Metode PCA dalam Energy Security
AVA 1
AVA 2
AVA 3
AVA 4
AVA 5
AFF 1
AFF 2
ACS 1
ACS 2
ACS 3
ACP 1
ACP 2
EFF 1
EFF 2
PCA
Eigenvalue Komponen 1
Eigenvalue Komponen 2
Eigenvalue Komponen 3
Nilai Indikator pada Komponen 1 :
AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,
AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2
Nilai indikator pada komponen 2 :
AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,
AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2
Nilai indikator pada komponen 3 :
AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,
AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2
Nilai Komponen Tertimbang
ESI
Input Nilai Indikator Output PCA Pembobotan Aggregasi
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• Acceptability & Efficiency <
Energy Security Index (BAU)
Kedepan• Affordability, Accessibility,
Efficiency >>• Availability & Acceptability <<
peran Bioenergi >>
28Source: Qodri, 2018
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Kebijakan ketahanan energinasional
• PP No. 79/2014 KEN
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• Dimensi ESI OK • Indikator kurang rasional• Tidak dimonitor setiap tahun
dengan metode yang sama sehingga bisadievaluasi profilnya
• Implementasi Dana Ketahanan Energi?
Konsep ketahanan energi - DEN
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Source: DEN
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Ketahanan Energi & Nexus
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Apa itu Nexus?The Nexus perspective focuses on the interdependence of water, energy, food (WEF)
Its objectives are:• improve energy, water, and food security in an increasing resource‐
constrained world• support transition to sustainability.
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Cara pandang ketahanan W-E-F
Solutions often treat food security, water and energy separately.
But they need to be seen as interdependent
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Tantangan Nexus 2050
Policy makers, therefore, need to identify integrated solutionsthat can address trade-offs and maximize security across all sectors
Source: IRENA, 2015 34
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Interaction various elements of the water–energy–food nexus
Source: IRENA, 2015 35
Pertanyaan penting water-food-energy nexus
Self sufficiency
How will climate change and population growth affect domestic and agricultural supplies?
How will food production change in the future? Long‐term trends and short‐term variability
Will the country become dependent on foreign energy supplies? How will climate variability affect future production?
Water
Food
Energy
Security
Will the price of water increase to an unsustainable level for part of the population?
How will local production and world food price trends and fluctuations affect the price of food for the population?
How will local production and world energy price trends and fluctuations affect the price of energy for the population?
Source: UCL 36
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Risks and impacts within the energy–food nexus
Source: IRENA, 2015 37
Direct and indirect energy inputs at different stages of the food sector
Source: IRENA, 2015 38
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Oil-foods interlinkage
Source: LMC 39
Food based feedstock vs oil price
Source: IEA, 2013
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Risks and impacts within the water–energy nexus
Source: IRENA, 201541
Amount of energy required to provide 1 m3 of water safe for human consumption
42Source: IRENA, 2015
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Water withdrawal and consumption for value chain of energies
43Source: IRENA, 2015
Risks and impacts within the water–food nexus
Source: IRENA, 201544
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Biomass to biofuels technology pathays
Source: USAID
Biaya pokok produksiBBN
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Sustainable biodiesel industry model Biodiesel Sustianability Model
Sustainability Impact Macro Sub-Model
Environment ModuleSocio - Tech
Module
Biodiesel Micro
Sub-Model
Economic Module
Integrated Chain
Production
Agri Serv Ind
GovernmentIncome
Expend
HouseholdGHG
Emission
Land Clearing and Plantation
CPO Factory Biodiesel Biodiesel Price &
Demand Module
Sustainable Indicator
Land Clearing Rate & Types
PlantationExpansion Decision
Financial Social LCA Environment
Single Chain
Expansion Decision
Extraction
Balance
Relative Prices
International Trade
Investment
Population
Employment
Income Distribution
Technology Life E
xpecta
ncy
Climate Change
Forest Water
Energy Module
Energy Demand
Residential Serv IndTransp
ort
Oil
ProdExplora
tionNational
Price
Sustainable Indicators
Social
Economy
Environ-ment
Energy Mix
Biodiesel Volume
Policy scenarios
Business as Usual
(BAU)
State-owned
enterprise(SOE)
Domestic Market
Obligation(DMO)
Land productivity types
High Low High
Ownership structure
Independent
Integrated Integrated
Land clearing methods
Slash and Burn
Slash only Slash and Burn
CPO procurement price
Market price
Producer price
Margin 30% Producer price
Source: Akhmad et al, 2011 47
System boundary of a genericbiofuel life cycle
Source: Stapgef, 2015
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Multi-scale of biofuel R&D
Multi-scales, spacial, stakeholders, temporal, objectives of FEW nexus
Source: Gracia & You, 201650
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Energy-water flows
Source: DOE51
Nexus resource flows
Source: Bijl et al, 2018 52
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Source: GCP & WCS
Rekomendasi
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Rekomendasiketahanan energi nexus
Kuantifikasi kinerja ESI nasional secara berkala sehingga profil indicator 4A, capaian tujuan KEN, dapat terukur.
Membuat dashboard skor ESI tahunan dan melakukananalisis gap antara target dan capaian dalam policy brief.
Mengintegrasi kebijakan ketahanan pangan, energi dan air dengan mempertimbangkan keterkaitannya.
Peran penting bioenergi/RE untuk peningkatan ketahanannexus ke depan perlu langkah nyata.
Melaksanakan riset dan inovasi lintas disiplin FEW nasionaldan analisis Kebijakan ketahanan nexus Indonesia yang dapat meningkatkan sinergi sektoral nexus.
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Terimakasih
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