Nairobi, Kenya6th May 2015

Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Survey:

Fifth Media Release

Education: Public’s Feedback Most Kenyans prefer school laboratory-centers rather than laptops for each Class 1

pupil Jubilee and CORD supporters differ over main reason for non-implementation of

laptop project Few expect laptop project to be implemented before next general election 18 ways identified to raise money for teachers’ demands Most Kenyans support ranking of schools

Introduction As the Jubilee administration nears the half-way mark in its term, Ipsos’ most recent survey included questions on a number of issues that are continuing to occupy public, and government, attention. In this Media Release, we cover the following in the Education sector: (1) The laptop project, (2) School-ranking, (3) Teachers’ Pay Demands.

Most Kenyans prefer school laboratory-centers rather than laptops for each Class 1 pupil

When it first became clear that there were challenges in implementing the laptop-per-(standard 1)-child, Ipsos conducted a survey on this matter which found that 4 in 5 (80%) Kenyans preferred a laptop laboratory for all students in each school. Now, one year later, this figure is unchanged (79%), and this is so across the main political divide, with statistically identical support for the laboratory option by both Jubilee and CORD supporters.

“Regarding the Government’s primary school laptop project, which do you prefer: that each child is given a laptop, or that each school have a laptop laboratory for all pupils?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

15%

78%

6%

12%

79%

8%

17%

79%

4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laptops for Each Standard 1 Pupil Laptop Laboratory in Every PrimarySchool

Not Sure

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)

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In the current survey, respondents were asked the additional question as to what they think has caused this implementation failure. Most frequently mention included insufficient funds for the project’s cost (30%) and corruption in the procurement process (27%), followed by the conviction that Jubilee had never been sincere about this campaign pledge (19%).

“What is the main reason you think the Jubilee Government has not implemented the primary school laptop project up to now?”:(By Total)

Insufficient Funds, 30%

Procurement Corruption, 27%

Dishonest/No Sincere Intention,

19%

Lack of Proper Planning, 2%

Other (10 Mentions), 8%

DK, 14%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

The issuance of laptops for every Standard 1 pupil in all of Kenya’s 22,000 public primary schools was the most highly publicized promise in Jubilee’s 2013 election campaign. Evidence of this was seen in Ipsos’ first post-election survey: 65% of respondents could recall it, the next most memorable one being of improved health care, at 45%.

In preparation for the project, Kenya Power has actively been extending the electricity grid, so that the proportion of primary schools connected to it has reportedly increased from 50% to 70% since Jubilee assumed office.

Jubilee and CORD supporters differ over main reason for non-implementation of laptop projectThe basis of these competing explanations is clearer when these same responses are correlated with political alignment. As might be expected, whereas far more Jubilee supporters attribute this implementation failure to (the more forgivable) lack of funds than do their CORD counterparts (37% vs. 24% - a 13% margin), while substantially more of the latter attribute this to downright deception – a lack of commitment to honour this campaign pledge from the start (26% vs. 14% – a 12% gap).

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“What is the main reason you think the Jubilee Government has not implemented the primary school laptop project up to now?”:by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

Main ReasonTotal

(n=1,964)Jubilee Supporters

(n=871)CORD Supporters

(n=624)%

Difference

Insufficient Funds 30% 37% 24% -13%

Procurement Corruption 27% 28% 28% 0%

Dishonest/No Sincere Intention 19% 14% 26% +12%

Lack of Proper Planning 2% 1% 2% +1%

Other 8% 7% 8% +1%

DK 14% 12% 12% 0%

Few expect laptop project to be implemented before next general electionTurning to expectations of the project’s eventual implementation – at least “before the next election” – a clear majority of Kenyans (56%) have none. Even a slim majority of Jubilee supporters express this negative view (51%) – and with only one-quarter of them (27%) certain that it will be – even if far more CORD supporters have lost hope on this issue (66%).

Yet the fact that overall, one-quarter (25%) are uncertain whether this pledge will be fulfilled before the next election or not suggests that a considerable proportion of Kenyans are still hopeful about this.

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“Whatever your preference about the laptop plan, do you think it will be implemented before the next election in 2017?”(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

19%

9%

27%

56%

66%

51%

25% 25%21%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)

YES NO Not Sure

In response to the apparently endless legal battles regarding the tendering process for the provision of laptops, the Jubilee government has announced it shall abandon this (earlier estimated) Shs. 24.6b scheme in favour of tablets. Whether this would affect the Shs. 17.58b price-tag, already set aside for the next financial year, is unclear.

In addition, it has been pointed out that such tablets have much less content-storage capacity than laptops, suggesting that only through internet connection will they be of much use. But such connections would constitute another substantial recurrent cost, even if the purchase price is considerably lower. Has this also been included in the tablet-option cost estimates? In any case, assuming that this option will actually be pursued, the public’s opinion about this change-of-approach will be included in Ipsos’ next survey.

18 ways identified to raise money for teachers’ demandsA telephonic survey by Ipsos in October 2014 found that 78% of Kenyans support the demands of teachers for an increase in their terms of service.

In the current survey, respondents were first asked in what ways (maximum of two) they could think of that money could be raised by Government to meet this demand (whether they support it or not). Some 18 proposals were offered, though none were offered by nearly one-third of all respondents (31%). Of these, about one-in-five (22%) could not think of any ways of raising the required funds, while the remainder either claimed that such an increase is simply impossible (7%), or that there was no need to find more resources as enough funds were available already (2%).

Among the specific suggestions made, most frequent were a reduction in the number of elected officials (25%), and a reduction in the salaries and benefits of these same officials (23%), in addition to reducing corruption (also 23%). Other main mentions were increasing

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VAT (13%), reducing the number of civil servants (8%), and selling off corruptly-acquired assets (5%), though this latter suggestion would require re-possessing them first.

“The Government says there is not enough money to increase teachers’ pay. What are two ways you can think of that such additional funds could be found?” (By Total)

2%

7%

22%

4%

2%

2%

5%

8%

13%

23%

23%

25%

0% 20% 40%

Enough Money Exists Already

Not Possible

DK

Other (10 Mentions)

Divert Laptop Money

Seek Donor Funding

Recover/Sell Corruptly Acquired Assets

Reduce Number of Civil Servants

Increase VAT

Reduce Salaries/Benefits of Elected Officials

Reduce Corruption

Reduce Number of Elected Officials

In terms of the Jubilee-CORD divide, only minor variations emerge on this issue, however, though with fewer of the latter having any idea how this could be done (5%), as well as fewer who believe any such increase is simply not possible (8% vs. 5% – a 3% gap).

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“The Government says there is not enough money to increase teachers’ pay. What are two ways you can think of that such additional funds could be found?” (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

MeasureTotal

(n=1,964)Jubilee Supporters

(n=871)CORD Supporters

(n=624)%

Difference

Reduce Number of Elected Officials 25% 25% 29% +4%

Reduce Salaries/Benefits of Elected Officials 23% 25% 21% -4%

Reduce Corruption 23% 23% 24% +1%

Increase VAT 13% 13% 15% +2%

Reduce Number of Civil Servants 8% 7% 9% +2%

Recover/Sell Corruptly Acquired Assets 5% 4% 5% +1%

DK 21% 21% 16% -5%

Cannot Be Done 7% 8% 5% -3%

The fact that over two-thirds of all respondents offered revenue-raising suggestions to meet the teachers’ demands suggests how much education is valued in Kenya. Most immediately, the primary motivation is probably to ensure that future strikes are avoided. More generally, however, the benefits of education are deeply entrenched in the Kenyan society. This is true not just for the students themselves and their families (as has been seen in the moving stories of many families who had sacrificed so much for the students who perished in the Garissa University College attack), but also the benefits which accrue to wider community due to the very presence of schools.

This is also supported by the fact that in this same survey, it was found that 20% of all respondents mentioned “education” as the most effective way of reducing poverty in their localities (the fourth ‘remedy’ mentioned, after job-creation, support for agricultural/livestock development, and infrastructure).

Whether the same citizens who support teachers’ demands would support an extended strike – leading again to the loss of their children’s education – remains to be seen, should such a strike occur.

In any case, with teachers’ union leaders still threatening strike action, and with donors such as the World Bank still pressuring the Government to control recurrent (especially public wage) expenditure, it is clear this issue will constitute a continuing challenge as Jubilee moves into the second half of its current tenure. The second issue covered here is that of the demand by teachers for their ‘promised-yet-delayed’ pay increase. It should be noted that the lowest starting salary for teachers currently is only about Shs. 17,000 per month, which they (through their unions) want raised to Shs. 50,000.

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(This compares with about Shs. 1m that MPs earn a month – even if there are only 391).The current wage bill for teachers is some Shs. 160b, or 15% of total public expenditure. The teachers (nearly 300,000 of them) went on strike earlier this year demanding a 60% increase in pay, whereas the Teachers Service Commission offered only Shs. 9.3b in allowances.

At the same time, the UN says Kenya needs about 80,000 more teachers to attain the desired quota of 1 teacher per 35 students, and this in a situation where a recent assessment found that only about 20% of third year students have minimal verbal and numeric competence. As such, some critics have questioned the nation’s preparedness for the free primary education programme (FPE) that was introduced by the NARC government in 2003, and which led to an increase in the primary school population from 5.9m in 2003 to nearly 10m today.

Most Kenyans support ranking of schoolsThe survey results reveal that few Kenyans support the recent abolition of ranking of both primary and secondary schools with more than two-thirds doing so (71% and 70%, respectively).

“Do you support the ranking of public private primary and secondary schools?” (By Total, Those With/Without a Child in Public/Private/Both/Neither Type of Schools)

71%74%

66%

79%

69%70% 72%

64%

80%

69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Those With a Child ina Public PrimarySchool (n=641)

Those With a Child ina Private PrimarySchool (n=246)

Those With Childrenin Both Types ofSchools (n=171)

Those With NoChildren In School

(n=906)

Primary Schools Secondary Schools

% Saying “YES”

This is true for those with/without any child in either a public or private primary school (or whether they have any child in school at all), although those with children in private schools express slightly lower support for ranking (about 5-10% compared to other households).

This may be because any parent(s) who prepared to pay for such private education have already assessed the chosen school’s performance-level, and is able to monitor the child (and school’s) performance with more attention than (most) parents of children in public schools.

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Also, high performing schools have been said to have good resource allocation or management although in most cases both. Competition is also considered a good thing in general as it increases accountability and is practice in developed countries like the United States of America where ranking of Universities is known to happen.

“Do you support the ranking of public private primary and secondary schools?” (By Total, Those With/Without a Child in Public/Private/Both/Neither Type of Schools)

71%74%

66%

79%

69%70% 72%

64%

80%

69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Those With a Child ina Public PrimarySchool (n=641)

Those With a Child ina Private PrimarySchool (n=246)

Those With Childrenin Both Types ofSchools (n=171)

Those With NoChildren In School

(n=906)

Primary Schools Secondary Schools

% Saying “YES”

Controversy has surrounded the elimination of the ranking of schools based on national results, beginning with last year’s examinations. While law-makers, teachers and other analysts have remained divided on this issue, the Cabinet Secretary for Education has insisted that there is “no going back” to the previous policy.

Comment:Whether such survey findings attract the attention of policy-makers in the Education sector, let alone whether they would consider making any change in policy in response to them, must be left to speculation, or further exploration of this issue by approaching them directly for their reaction.

Survey Methodology The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above, of whom 1,964 living in urban and rural areas were interviewed. The margin-of-error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 with a 95% confidence level.

The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 28th March and 7th April 2015. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos Limited (Kenya) funded the survey.

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For further details on this press release please contact:Dr. Tom Wolf Victor RatengResearch Analyst Opinion Polls Project Managertpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.comTel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke

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