karina veum, ecn gardermoen, 12. januar 2010 · tidal amplitude is not a limiting factor although...

Presentasjon av WindSpeed prosjektet, Gardermoen, 1 2 January 2010

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Presentasjon av WindSpeed prosjektet

Karina Veum, ECN

Gardermoen, 12. januar 2010

www.windspeed.eu


WINDSPEED facts:

� Client: DG TREN/EACI (Intelligent Energy for Europe Programme)

� Funding: 1.4 mill. euro

� Duration: September 2008 – February 2011

� Partners: 9


Innhold:

– Bakgrunn for prosjektet– Prosjektets målsetninger – Gjennomgang av arbeidspakkene og delresultater– Presentasjon av DSS verktøyet– Arbeid med scenarier– Spørsmål og diskusjon


Bakgrunn

• Nytt fornybarenergidirektiv med bindende mål om 20% fornybarenergii EU innen 2020

• Bioenergi og vindkraft forventes å bli de viktigste bidragsyterne (EUs Veikart for fornybarenergi (COM(2006)848)

• Energipakke fra EU i November 2008 med nye signaler:

• Kommunikasjon om havbasert vindkraft (COM(2008)768) – havbasert vindkraft kan økes med 30-40 ganger dagens installert kapasitet inn 2020, og opp mot 150 GW (~ 575 TWh) innen 2030 men proaktiv politikk nødvendig

• Strategic Energy Review (COM(2008)...) – ”a Blueprint for a North Sea offshore grid should be developed to interconnect national electricity grids in North-West Europe together and plug-in the numerous planned offshore wind projects”


Prosjektets målsetninger og oppgaver

Prosjektet skal:-• Utarbeide et veikart for utvikling av havbasert vindkraft i sør og sentral Nordsjoen (NS) fram til

2030, som inkluderer et ambisiøst men realistisk mål samt anbefalinger (politikk og virkemidler) om hvordan målet kan nås.

Videre skal prosjektet :• Utvikle et GIS-basert multi-kriteria beslutningsstøttesytem (alias DSS verktøyet)• Gi en oversikt over (1) eksisterende og fremtidige aktiviteter i NS, (2) lokasjonsspesifikke

vindkraftpotensialer og –kostnader, (3) tilknytningspunkter og – kapasiteter• Identifisere interaksjoner mellom vindkraft og andre aktiviteter i NS, og utarbeide en metode for å

kvantifisere disse interaksjonene

Prosjektet (strategiske) målsetninger er å :• Bidra til en forbedret beslutningsprosess rundt utviklingen av havbasert vindkraft samt økt grad

av koordinering og samarbeid mellom land• Bidra til redusert konfliknivå mellom sektorinteressene


WindSpeed area

• German• Dutch• Belgian• British (partial)• Danish (partial)• Norwegian (partial)


Work Package 2 objectives

• Inventory of location specific wind potentials

• Inventory of location specific wind energy cost

• Inventory of grid connection points and capacities


WINDSPEED – Inventory of wind potentials

Most offshore wind farms currently installed at locations with extreme wave of 8 – 10m. Most onerous areas in the central North Sea correspond to the depth range of floating structures whose design may minimise wave loading.

Yes8 – 14 mExtreme wave50 year-return Hs

Tidal amplitude is not a limiting factor although it actually increases the design depth of the project.

Yes0 – 7 mTidal amplitude

Quaternary sediments overlay most of the North Sea with thickness of 30-100m.

Yes2Variable. Mostly unknown.

Soil conditions

Bottom-mounted support structures have been installed at depth of 5-50m and this range could be extended somewhat. TLP and spar floating technology could be applied in the 50-150m range and 150m-500m range respectively.

Yes1

0 – 700 mBetween 10m and 200m for the most part.

Water depth

CommentsFeasibility2020-2030

Indicative rangeExternal condition

Implications on technical feasibility / potential ( 1)

Notes: 1. With the exception of the Norwegian trench.2. Some soils may be inappropriate for certain concepts but only extremely soft soils may prove too challenging. Only one offshore project abandoned to date because of soils.


WINDSPEED – Inventory of wind potentials

Distances to port exceeding 50 km may require some form of offshore accommodation, which has obvious cost implications but is not a technical barrier in itself.

Yes10 – 250 kmDistance from port

HVDC connection schemes can be used at distances considered in the North Sea

Yes10 – 250 kmDistance from grid

The highest IEC turbine class is intended for mean wind speeds of 10 m/s considering a 20-year design life. It is noted that these turbines may be installed sites with mean wind speeds in excess of 10 m/s, but with a possible impact on the life of the assets and on operational costs. Therefore this factor is not considered to be a barrier to development of offshore wind in the North Sea.

Yes8 – 12 m/sMean wind speed

CommentsFeasibility2020-2030

Indicative rangeExternal condition

Implications on technical feasibility / potential ( 2)

No hard barrier to the deployment of offshore wind in the central and

southern North Sea on technical grounds.


Wind potential and costs depend on external factors , such as ….


6082000

6084000

6086000

6088000

6090000

6092000

6094000

6096000

6098000

6100000

6102000

6104000

558000 560000 562000 564000 566000 568000 570000 572000 574000 576000 578000 580000

Easting

Nor

thin

g

Clustering of offshore wind farms

WINDSPEED – Inventory of wind potentialsCapacity and Energy Production

Project density of 6MW/km2

Array densities of 4 - 9 MW/km2 i.e. cluster densities of 1.3 - 3 MW/km2

7.8D7.8D

13 km

13 km


WINDSPEED – Inventory of wind potentialsCapacity and Energy Production

Annual Energy Production as a function of wind speed and density


• CapEx estimationTurbine supply costing

Support structures costingTurbine installation and support structure costing

Electrical system costing

Summary of CapEx costing

• OpEx estimation

• Annual Energy Production estimation

• Future costs – learning curves

WINDSPEED – Inventory of location specific wind energy costs


7

7

7

7

7

8

8

8

8

8

9

9

9

9

9

10

10

10

10

10

11

11

11

11

11

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Max Design Water Depth (m)

Wei

ght (

Ton

nes) Windpseed Analysis

Weight Function

Tower Weight

Transition Weight

Lines of Equal Wave Height HS50

CapEx Estimation

Monopile Weight Trend


−+++=9

9Hs50*Dd*202Dd*12Dd*0.045Mw 905

206. 1Dd*82Dd*0.1TPw ++=


Economic inputs


0 – 200 – 200 – 200 – 200 – 20

YesYesYesYesYes

%%%% %

9290889285

User inputUser inputUser inputUser inputUser input

NPRtNPRsNPRiNPReNPRo&m

Progress ratio turbinesProgress ratio structuresProgress ratio installationProgress ratio electricalProgress ratio O&M

>0Yes€ / tonnes100User inputBalRateBallast Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes6000User inputMsRateMooring steel Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes3200User inputTsRateTLP steel Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes3800User inputJsRateJacket steel Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes3600User inputSsRateSecondary steel Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes2600User inputPsRatePile steel Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes1300User inputReinfRateReinforcement Rate

>0Yes€ / tonnes125User inputConcRateConcrete Rate

1 – 3YesMW / km22User inputDePacking density

8 – 15Yes%12User inputFCRFixed Charge Rate

Permissible range

User control

UnitDefault value

TypeAcronymParameter


Grid connection points and future connection capacities (2020-2025) identified for the WindSpeed

DSS tool



• Inventory and description of non-wind sea functions currently at stake in the area

• Future development for these functions up to 2030, including resulting spatial claims

• Analysis of known positive and negative interactions between offshore wind and other functions

• Translation into calculation rules

Wageningen-IMARES


Overview of current non-wind sea functions

610 750

447 900

North Sea

WindSpeed area

WS24106 000Nature conservation

WS28 400Sand extraction

WS1359 500Military activities

NS530 000Pipelines

NS636 500Cables

WS100447 900Fisheries

NS1062 000Oil and gas extraction

WS1469 000Shipping

North Sea (NS) or WindSpeed (WS)

% of total areaArea (km2)Sea use function


Inventory• Shipping• Oil and gas platforms• Fisheries• Cables • Pipelines• Military activities• Nature conservation• Sand extraction


Summary of future development

areaincrease, size not determinedNature conservation

area5% yearly increaseSand extraction

areano change overall, possible to relocateMilitary activities

pipeline length0.2% yearly increasePipelines

cable length1% yearly increaseCables

relative sizefishing effort (fishing days)

2010: 100%2020: 90%2030: 85%

Fisheries

number of platforms2010: 7502020: 3032030: 100

Oil and gas extraction

number of vessels1% yearly increaseShipping

UnitExpected developmentSea use function


Interactions between sea use functions (1)

• Shooting ranges• Flying manoeuvres• Munitions dumping

sites• Defence radar• Submarine activities• etc


Interactions between sea use functions (2)

* First come first served. Additional activities will have to negotiate*OWP

~^Sand extraction

√~~Nature(protected)

2 existing and in use cables & pipelines*√<<2

Cables & pipelines

1 outside prime fishing areas√^<√^

1

Fisheries

√√√~~Opriorities

Defense

*<<#^<<Oil & Gas

√^~√routes

√anchoring

~√<routes

Shipping

ShippingOil & Gas

DefenseFisheriesCables & Pipelines

Nature (protected)

Sand Extraction

OWP


Calculation rules for sea use functions

Types of calculations rules

1. Exclusions

2. Spatial suitability values

3. Economic values

4. Refinements to reduce heterogeneity

Wageningen-IMARES


Calculation rulesType 1: Exclusions

• Exclusion criterion implies no-go for offshore wind parks in areas where other sea use functions are already in place

• Exclusions may include a buffer or safety zone

Applicable to e.g.

• Oil and Gas Platforms

• Cables and pipelines

• Shipping routes (international (IMO) routes)

Wageningen-IMARES


Safety zones of sea use functions in the WindSpeed EEZs

• Shipping: 500 m; 2 nm with respect to OWPs

• Oil and Gas: 500 m (UNCLOS)

• Cables & pipelines: 500 m (UNCLOS)

• OWP: - 2 nm (nautical miles) with respect to shipping- 500 m with respect to O&G (unmanned)- 5 nm with respect to helicopters (O&G platforms)* >12 nautical miles from the coast (UK, DK closer as well)

Wageningen-IMARES


Calculation rulesType 2: Spatial suitability values

• Show a relative score value for combining with offshore wind parks (OWP)

• Fish (species richness)

– 17.0-35.8 species max 75% OWP



– OWP claim area most desirable to offshore wind energy based on rules set out by WP2 (wind potential, capex, opex, etc.)

Wageningen-IMARES


Fish• 3/5 of area is shown green of

which 75% available for OWP (=45 %)

• 1/5 area yellow: max 50% OWP (=10%)

• 1/5 area orange: max 25% OWP (=5%)

• Theoretically available to OWP 60%


Calculation rulesType 3: Economic values

• Fisheries on the North Sea Effort of fishery

– Could be made economical based on Revenue of fishery (gross value)

• Not possible because available data insufficient

• Sand extraction– Difficult to make economic because

• Value of a cubic metre of sand different for different uses,

• But even worse: widely differing values between countries

• Data on extractable amount of sand in an area also needed– But unavailable for active areas

– Still unknown for prospecting areas

– Natural replenishment (?)

Wageningen-IMARES


Calculation rulesType 4: Refinements to reduce heterogeneity

• Military use: defined subcategories- Munitions dumping: NO-GO- Shooting ranges/unsafe sector: Limited availability to OWP- Areas used by ships/subs: Limited availability (<50%)- Areas used for aircraft: Higher availability (>50%)

• Policy for activities allowed in nature conservation areas - differences among countries- depending on conservation goals

• All presently defined calculation rules are Type 4, with combinations of Type 1 Exclusion (0% for OWP) and Type 3 Spatial suitability values (1-99 % for OWP)

Wageningen-IMARES


WP4 - Goals of the Decision Support System

• Show potential of offshore wind energy in the North Sea on a spatial resolution taking into account non-wind sea functions and nature conservation constraints

• Expert tool to help policy makers understand the interrelation of offshore wind energy with other sea functions

• Allow to find a best possible strategy for the deployment of offshore wind energy


Following data are collected and harmonized:

CablesStaging Ports

PipelinesGrid Connection Points

Shipping Routes/DensityWave Height

12nm ZonesMilitary UseStorm Surge

Project AreaBenthosSpring Tidal Amplitude

CoastlineNature Conservation AreasWind speed at 90m

BASICNON-WINDWIND / COST

EEZFishery / Fish / Spawning AreasSea Depth

PlatformsDrilling Requirement

Wave and tidal (??)Designated OWP zones

Sand Extraction / DredgingPlanned / Existing OWP

Database (1)


Calculation Rules

Refinements to reduce HeterogenityNet Annual Energy Production

Spatial Suitability ValuesOperating Expenditure

ExclusionLevelized Production Cost

NON-WINDCOST

Economic ValuesInitial Capital Expenditure for Project

Database (2)


Processing chain of the DSS tool- 4 main steps -

Insert map


User Defined Settings - WINDSPEED settings -


User Defined Settings - general settings -


User Defined Settings - national modules: distance to shore -


User Defined Settings- modules: military zones -


What can the DSS deliver?

Maps & statistics on (not exhaustive list):

• suitable area (absolute and %)

• excluded area (absolute and %)

• exclusively excluded area by function (absolute and %)

• costs (€/MWh) for suitable area

• capacity (GWh/a) in suitable area


All areas excluded

Nature conservation areas

All areasexcluded

SandExtraction

500mBuffer zones – cables & pipelines

500mBuffer zones – oil & gas platforms

Density class 4 & 5 excluded

Shipping

40m (no floating turbines)

Maximum sea depth

DenmarkCountry Selection

All areas excluded

Military zones

Min. 15km, max. 225 km

Distance to shore

Setting / ValueParameter

Processing chain for exclusion rules: DK


All areasexcluded

SandExtraction

All areas excluded





Shipping


Maximum sea depth

NetherlandsCountry Selection

All areas excluded

Military zones


Distance to shore


Processing chain for exclusion rules: NL


All areasexcluded

SandExtraction

All areas excluded





Shipping


Maximum sea depth

NorwayCountry Selection

All areas excluded

Military zones


Distance to shore


Processing chain for exclusion rules: NO


Country AEP

[TWh/a] BE 2 DE 80 DK 261 NL 15 NO 598 UK 1050

Total ~ 2000

Preliminary Results



• Scenario analysis → Identification of OWE potentials & costs under different spatial priorities and development perspectives

• Identification of most important spatial drivers & barriers• Assumptions on innovation and technological learning• Simulation with RESolve-E (Admire Rebus) to identify impact of

competition between RES technologies and policy costs implications• Consequences for grid (develop scenarios for grid connection &

development supporting overall scenarios, expansion plan for transmission grid and interconnector capacity)

• Consequences for non-wind sea functions• Roadmap


Categorisation of the North Sea:

Go areas: Non-conflict areas, e.g. areas currently not used by other sea use functions

Negotiable areas: In principle, non compatible or partially compatible areas. BUT cost of freeing space for offshore may be within reasonable levels and/or there are synergies to benefit from by placing offshore wind farms there

No-go areas: High conflict areas, e.g. OWP and non-wind other sea use functions/certain nature conservation areas are notcompatible. High cost to society to move existing non-wind activities.


Possible categorisation


Defining the WindSpeed scenario framework

Slow technologydevelopment

Fast technologydevelopment

Strong offshore wind priorities/spatial planning

Weak offshore wind priorities/spatial planning


Defining the WindSpeed scenario framework

Slow technologydevelopment

Fast technologydevelopment

Strong offshore wind priorities/spatial planning

Weak offshore wind priorities/spatial planning

Max. OWE

Medium OWE

Min. OWE

Medium OWE


Assessing spatial opportunities for offshore wind

Illustration of potential measures to make more space available for offshore wind parks


0o 3oE 6oE 9oE 50oN

52oN

54oN

56oN

58oN

60oN

0o 3oE 6oE 9oE 50oN

52oN

54oN

56oN

58oN

60oN

1500

3850

2400

6915

2800

2360

8279

997

4115

14002800

1400

2800

7000

1400

8400

950

700

2800

1400

9753

2800

9800

23721010

Offshore grid optimisation – a possible approach

• Find an optimal grid structure taking into account:

– Wind power variations– Stochastic power prices– On- and offshore load and

generation scenarios• Use formal optimization for a

structured approach to finding good grid layouts

– Difficult to solve ”by inspection”

– Huge number of possible grid structures

– � Combinatorial problem solved efficiently by optimization tools

• Results:– Which cables to build– Capacity on the cables

• Combines easily with PSST/TradeWind model in an iterative procedure

• Gives valuable decision support


• Finalise DSS tool

• Case studies and Scenario modeling, incl. offshore grid

• Stakeholder workshops

• DSS training (and possibly also web application of the DSS)

• Develop Roadmap

WINDSPEED work in 2010


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karina veum, ecn gardermoen, 12. januar 2010 · tidal amplitude is not a limiting factor although...

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