June 9, 20152015 PDC

Mark Boslough & Barbara Jennings

Sandia National Labs

Albuquerque, NM

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Inject 1

Bill Fogleman, GRIT – Mapping

Paul Chodas – JPL - Trajectory

Souheil Ezzedine – LLNL – Tsunami

Physical and Infrastructure Effects Briefing

EXERCISE

What we have been told

Entry speed: 16 km/s (36,000 mph, ~mach 47)

Size: up to 400 meters diameter

Composition: Stone, density 2.2-3.3 g/cm3

2250 Megaton impact cannot be ruled out

Probability of impact = 0.9%

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EXERCISE

Rapid estimate tool

Possible Impact Locations

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North of Vientiane, Laos

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EXERCISE

Greatest threat is tsunamiHighest priority is to run simulations as we did for 2014 FEMA exercise.

Example: Gulf of Mexico (not within current threat corridor).

Example of Impact Damage ZonesFrom 2014 FEMA exercise

EXERCISE

• Pressure from a surface blast causes lateral dynamic loading; load applied rapidly for a second or more with continuously decreasing strength

• Primary infrastructure damage due to overpressure and sustained wind at Severe; at 130 – 140 MPH (209 – 225 KMH)

Moderate; 90 – 100 MPH (145 – 160 KMH)

Light; 60 – 80 MPH ( 97 – 129 KM

Wind From Airburst Likened to a Nuclear Blast

EXERCISE

Structure Severe Moderate Light

Petroleum, oil, lubricant tanks (POL)

100% loss of fluids due to lifting of tanks from foundation

Loss of contents due to leakage; secondary effects; e.g. fires

Loss of liquid due to sloshing

Utility lines (above ground)

100% supporting poles down

30% supporting poles damaged

All poles in tact – few lines down, undamaged

Rail 100% track and rail cars

Track in place cars blown over

Cars may be off track and sustain light damage

Parked transport planes, light aircraft, helicopters

100% to exposed Operational damage due to being blown over or other planes and debris

Field maintenance may be required

Damage to Industry: POL, Utilities, Transportation

EXERCISE

Structure Complete Heavy Moderate

Wooden structure un-reinforced

Frame shattered resulting in almost complete collapse.

Wall framing cracked. Roof severely damaged. Interior partitions blown down.

Windows and doors blown in. Interior partitions cracked.

Light corrugated steel

Complete distortion or collapse of frame.

Minor to major distortion of frame.

Windows and doors blown in. Siding ripped off.

Heavy steel-frame industrial building

Severe distortion, collapse of frame.

Some frame distortion. Not operable.

Windows and doors blown in. Siding ripped off.

Concrete and steel reinforced

Walls shattered, frame distortion, initial collapse.

Walls breached to the point of being distorted. Doors blown in.

Cracking of concrete walls and frame.

Damage to Industrial Structures

EXERCISE