june 15, 2018web.angelbackoffice.com/research_contentmanagement...sbi disapproved the move on the...
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
U.S. Stocks turned in a mixed performance during trading on Thursday. While the
tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed to a new record closing high, the narrower Dow closed
lower for the third straight day. The Dow Jones was down by 0.1% to 25,175 and
the Nasdaq edged up by 0.9% to 7,761.
U.K. stocks fell notably as weaker-than-expected data from China weighed on the
mining sector and the pound spiked higher after the release of upbeat retail sales
data. The benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.6% at 7,656.
On domestic front, Indian shares closed lower during the last trading session to
snap a three-day winning streak after the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted interest rates for
the second time this year and signaled a more aggressive rate path for the rest of
the year. The BSE Sensex was ended down by 0.4% to 35,600.
News Analysis
ICICI Bank has filed the case against Punj Lloyd to recover dues of Rs 8.52
billion
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%)
Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 652 867 33.0
Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 626 720 15.1
Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 354 410 15.8
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 142 230 62.1
KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 430 589 37.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
Jun 15, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) 1.90 1.90
Jun 15, 2018 US Industrial Production 0.72 0.20
Jun 15, 2018 India Imports YoY% 4.60
Jun 15, 2018 India Exports YoY% 5.17
Jun 19, 2018 US Housing Starts 1,287.00 1,315.00
More Events on Pg7
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex (0.4) (139) 35,600
Nifty (0.4) (49) 10,808
Mid Cap (0.1) (12) 16,065
Small Cap 0.1 11 17,040
Bankex (0.5) (143) 29,751
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones (0.1) (26) 25,175
Nasdaq 0.9 66 7,761
FTSE (0.6) (48) 7,656
Nikkei (1.0) (228) 22,739
Hang Seng (0.9) (285) 30,440
Shanghai Com (0.2) (6) 3,044
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,215 856
Declines 1,429 940
Unchanged 131 81
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 3,520
NSE 26,329
Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (1,322) 257 -2,005
*MFs 98 1,953 61,325
Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)
MMTC 39 6.1
VAKRANGEE 43 5.0
KWALITY 30 4.9
JPASSOCIAT 15 4.5
VIPIND 457 4.4
Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)
OBEROIRLTY 506 -4.1
MINDTREE 994 -3.5
INDIACEM 116 -3.1
RENUKA 16 -3.1
COROMANDEL 425 -2.9
As on June 14, 2018
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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News Analysis
ICICI Bank has filed the case against Punj Lloyd to recover dues
of Rs 8.52 billion
ICICI Bank has filed a case against Punj Lloyd, the international engineering
procurement and Construction Company, in the National Company Law Tribunal
(NCLT), New Delhi, for insolvency and bankruptcy proceedings. The division bench
headed by Justice M M Kumar has issued a notice to Punj Lloyd, saying the lender
has moved the tribunal under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). ICICI
Bank has filed the case against Punj Lloyd to recover dues of Rs 8.52 billion.
However, the petition seeking initiation of insolvency proceeding against the
corporate debtor was opposed by State Bank of India (SBI).
SBI disapproved the move on the grounds that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)
February 12 circular gave corporate debtors six months time to resolve their debt
and Punj Lloyd still had time to seek an out-of-court settlement. Legal
representative of SBI told the NCLT that the company’s asset base only covered 5
per cent of its debt and there are 20 on-going projects, which are the only source
of revenue for the company. Further, the counsel for SBI said if insolvency
proceedings against the company were initiated the projects would be halted. SBI
is the leader of the lenders forum for Punj Lloyd.
Economic and Political News
Investment proposals under M-SIPS drop to Rs 914 bn in April as firms exit
20 states sign MoU with govt to implement National Health Insurance scheme
Sugar tale of two states: Sops to benefit Maharashtra mills, UP has to wait
WPI inflation soars to 14-mth high; rises to 4.43% in May from 3.18% in Apr
Corporate News
NTPC plans to load cheaper power first, plans new despatch schedule
Vedanta Resources mulls options for iron ore workers after shutdown
Teleperformance to acquire Intelenet from Blackstone for $1 billion
Tata's TAL expects Rs 10bn revenue from robotics business over 5 yrs
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Blue Star 6,270 652 867 33.0
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
Dewan Housing Finance 19,621 626 720 15.1
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
ICICI Bank 1,83,037 285 416 46.1
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries 3,366 430 589 37.1
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Music Broadcast Limited 1,860 326 475 45.7
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Navkar Corporation 2,136 142 230 62.1
Massive capacity expansion along with rail
advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the
company
Siyaram Silk Mills 2,880 614 851 38.5
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Maruti 2,71,091 8,974 10,619 18.3
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
GIC Housing 2,087 388 655 69.0
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
LT Foods 2,231 70 128 83.5
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over
next two years on the back of strong distribution
network & addition of new products in portfolio.
Safari Industries 1,416 635 720 13.4
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Source: Company, Angel Research
4
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Aditya Birla Capital 30,960 141 218 55.0
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Parag Milk Foods 2,979 354 410 15.8
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
Matrimony.com Ltd 1,623 714 1,016 42.3
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank 5,30,331 2,037 2,315 13.6
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M 1,13,242 922 1,050 13.5
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Amber Enterprises 3227 1026 1230 20.0
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Fundamental Call
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
CCL Products 3,727 280 360 28.5
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory
over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and
new geographical foray
Nilkamal 2,494 1,671 2,178 30.3
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,605 2,024 2,500 23.5
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries 3,047 249 395 59.0
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,261 863 920 6.6
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market
leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is
expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from
user industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
L&T Finance Holding 33,479 168 210 25.2
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jun 15, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % May F 1.90 1.90
6:45 PM US Industrial Production % May 0.72 0.20
India Imports YoY% % Change May 4.60
India Exports YoY% % Change May 5.17
Jun 19, 2018 6:00 PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 1,287.00 1,315.00
6:00 PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,364.00 1,335.00
Jun 20, 2018 7:30 PM US Existing home sales Million May 5.46 5.58
Jun 21, 2018 7:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun A 0.20
4:30 PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jun 21 0.50
Jun 22, 2018 1:00 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun P 56.90
1:00 PM Germany PMI Services Value Jun P 52.10
Jun 25, 2018 7:30 PM US New home sales Thousands May 662.00
Jun 26, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 128.00
Jun 28, 2018 6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.20
Jun 29, 2018 1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun (12.00)
2:00 PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 1.20
Jun 30, 2018 6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 51.90
Jul 02, 2018 2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 54.40
Jul 06, 2018 6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jun 223.00
2:00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change May 1.80
Jul 10, 2018 7:00 AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jun 1.80
5:30 PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change May 4.90
Jul 12, 2018 0-Jan-00 US Unnemployment rate % Jun 3.80
0-Jan-00 US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jun 0.20
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
7.6 8.0
7.2
9.1
8.1 7.6
6.8
6.1 5.6
6.3
7.0
7.7
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1Q
FY
16
2Q
FY
16
3Q
FY
16
4Q
FY
16
1Q
FY
17
2Q
FY
17
3Q
FY
17
4Q
FY
17
1Q
FY
18
2Q
FY
18
3Q
FY
18
4Q
FY
18
(%)
2.9
(0.3)
1.0
4.8
4.1
1.8
8.5
7.3 7.4 7.0
4.4
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
(%)
2.2
1.5
2.4
3.3 3.3
3.6
4.9
5.2 5.1
4.4 4.3
4.6
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
(%)
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0 A
pr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research As on June 14, 2018
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
South
Africa
Ind
onesia
Ma
laysia
Tha
ilan
d
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Ja
pa
n
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7 6.8
0.7
5.2 5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2 2.0
1.6 1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South A
frica
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(%)
10
.8
5.6
19
.5
11
.5
15
.6
15
.7
15
.7
15
.6
13
.5
16
.3
13
.1
14
.2
14
.0
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(x)
5
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR
Brazil Bovespa 72,122 (15.4) (17.0) 14.6
Russia Micex 4,344 1.4 7.1 11.4
India Nifty 10,857 0.1 3.7 12.4
China Shanghai Composite 3,050 (4.6) (8.5) (3.1)
South Africa Top 40 52,200 1.0 (0.9) 14.6
Mexico Mexbol 46,761 0.5 (3.7) (4.6)
Indonesia LQ45 951 3.3 (12.8) (0.3)
Malaysia KLCI 1,764 (4.5) (4.1) (0.1)
Thailand SET 50 1,129 (4.3) (4.3) 13.3
USA Dow Jones 25,201 1.5 0.8 17.9
UK FTSE 7,704 (0.3) 6.6 3.8
Japan Nikkei 22,966 0.4 7.0 14.9
Germany DAX 12,891 (1.0) 3.5 1.2
France CAC 5,453 (2.0) 3.8 2.8
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As on June 14, 2018
6
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Market Outlook
June 15, 2018
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status
14-06-2018 Top Picks Amber Enterprises 1,026 1,230 Open
07-06-2018 Top Picks M&M 918 1050 Open
04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990
03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open
02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open
04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open
20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984
15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333
29-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 932 1,020 Open
14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900
06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861
07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open
21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650
31-05-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510
07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open
04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open
03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open
01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed
Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd
160 Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131
18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400
19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open
06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96
16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open
10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open
20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434
07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open
05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status
04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485
31-05-2018 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1978 Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441
17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460 Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603
05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open
05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open
08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open
30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open
Source: Company
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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