July 22, 2003

Model ObjectivesModel Objectives

Forecast ADT on the Rural State Highway SystemForecast ADT on the Rural State Highway System Autos & TrucksAutos & Trucks Arterial SystemArterial System

Complement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO ModelsComplement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO Models Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.

Why Practice?Why Practice?

Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s core business activities:core business activities: planning & finance, programming, design, planning & finance, programming, design,

construction & maintenanceconstruction & maintenance

A useful, cost-effective toolA useful, cost-effective tool system, corridor, project level data for evaluating system, corridor, project level data for evaluating

needs & alternativesneeds & alternatives reliable & timely forecastsreliable & timely forecasts consistent methodologyconsistent methodology

Dear Office of Homeland Security:Dear Office of Homeland Security:

OK,OK,

I have my duck taped.I have my duck taped.

Now how about a Now how about a statewide model? statewide model?

TomTom

Why Not?Why Not?Urban ModelsUrban Models

Federal mandate, 40+ Federal mandate, 40+ years R&Dyears R&D

Predictable travel Predictable travel behavior, specialized behavior, specialized tools.tools.

Attractive career paths for Attractive career paths for modelers.modelers.

Statewide ModelsStatewide Models

No federal mandate, No federal mandate, little R&D or datalittle R&D or data

Travel behavior less Travel behavior less predictable, modeling predictable, modeling tools less useful.tools less useful.

Limited career paths Limited career paths for DOT modelers.for DOT modelers.

Available Demographic DataAvailable Demographic Data

1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data

Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS)Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS)

1997 Economic Census 1997 Economic Census

Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Data Data

Claritas Demographic & Lifestyle DataClaritas Demographic & Lifestyle Data

D&B Employment DataD&B Employment Data

Regional Demographic DataRegional Demographic Data

Available Network DataAvailable Network Data

National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) National Highway Planning Network (NHPN)

NORTAD 1998 DatabaseNORTAD 1998 Database

2000 National Transportation Atlas Database 2000 National Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD) (NTAD)

FHWA’s National HPMS Data FHWA’s National HPMS Data

GDT National Traffic Count Data GDT National Traffic Count Data

KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)

Available Travel DataAvailable Travel Data

1990, 2000 CTPP1990, 2000 CTPP

American Travel Survey (ATS), National American Travel Survey (ATS), National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)

Reebie Commodity Flow DataReebie Commodity Flow Data

Commodity Flow SurveyCommodity Flow Survey

Vehicle Inventory & Use SurveyVehicle Inventory & Use Survey

MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice & External Survey DataChoice & External Survey Data

Statewide Travel ModelsStatewide Travel Models

Mark ByramMark ByramOhioOhio

Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithVince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndianaIndiana

Paul HershkowitzPaul HershkowitzMissouri, MichiganMissouri, Michigan

Tom CooneyTom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, MississippiVirginia, Mississippi

Statewide Travel ModelsStatewide Travel Models

Mark ByramMark ByramOhioOhio

Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithVince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndianaIndiana

Paul HershkowitzPaul HershkowitzMissouri, MichiganMissouri, Michigan

Tom CooneyTom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, MississippiVirginia, Mississippi

Key FeaturesKey Features

Macro-Micro Modeling FrameworkMacro-Micro Modeling Framework

Preservation of linkages to KYTC HISPreservation of linkages to KYTC HIS

Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market SegmentationSegmentation

Activity Based Zone StructureActivity Based Zone Structure

Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Trip GenerationTrip Generation

Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows

Mess

Mess

Route System:

Internal Zones:

Eliminating false intersections along limited-access facilities:

Fixing milepost gaps:

M.P. 0.601 – M.P. 0.826

M.P. 0.828 – M.P. 1.479

Adding missing links:

External Network:

External Zones:

Passenger ModelPassenger Model

ModesModes

Network and zone systemsNetwork and zone systems

Trip generationTrip generation

Trip distributionTrip distribution

Mode choiceMode choice

AssignmentAssignment

Freight ModelFreight Model

ModesModes

Network and zone systemsNetwork and zone systems

Trip generationTrip generation

Trip distributionTrip distribution

Mode choiceMode choice

AssignmentAssignment

Calibration & ValidationCalibration & Validation

FHWA’s “Calibrating and Adjustment of System Planning Models” (NCHRP 365)

TMIP “Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual”

Model Management SystemsModel Management Systems

Input Data

Modeling Procedures

Output Data

Task # Milestone/Activity Completion Date

Task 1.0 Draft Specifications / Stakeholder Workshop Summer 2003

Final Model Specifications Summer 2003

Task 2.0 Data Compilation / Acquisition Fall 2003

Forecast Year Model Inputs Winter 2003

Freight Forecasts Winter 2004

Task 3.0 Model Development, Validation, and Calibration Spring 2004

Submit Draft Report and Model Files Spring 2004

Task 4.0 Develop Model Application and Interface Summer 2004

Model Training Summer 2004

Final Report and Deliverables Summer 2004

KYSTM Brainstorming SessionKYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority TopicsPriority Topics

Goal Statement?Goal Statement?

Model users, uses and outputsModel users, uses and outputs Who should use info from model?Who should use info from model? What information do they want/need?What information do they want/need? How should they get the information?How should they get the information?

Data resources?Data resources?

KYSTM Brainstorming SessionKYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority TopicsPriority Topics

Passenger modeling proceduresPassenger modeling procedures

Freight modeling proceduresFreight modeling procedures

Calibration/Validation criteria, standardsCalibration/Validation criteria, standards

Data/Model management proceduresData/Model management procedures