NUPC ‘1998

Six Future Challenges:50 years after

The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at

University of Manchester

New Paradigms for Using ComputersNew Personal Computer Uses

July 16, 1998Gordon Bell

Microsoft Corporation

NUPC ‘1998

From Questionable...Great Research & Book Reports to Poor...Profitable Product:“and then a miracle happens”

For New Uses of PCs Conference…also New Paradigms for Using

ComputersJuly 1998

Gordon BellMicrosoft Corp.

Bay Area Research Center

NUPC ‘1998

Research to Product Models The Classical, Feed-Forward Process Gov’t Model I. Fund product development & then buy the products Gov’t Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product. “We invented it, now productize it, stupid” PARC I “We invented something, let’s at least try to get our money back.”

PARC II Fund a company for research & development Research as a recruiting tool Hire good people, encourage interaction Hire good people, large projects, do startups Do it in/with product development Fund university research and pray…

NUPC ‘1998

Heuristics for Government Funding Fund University Research Issue “buy” challenges to foster

competition

NUPC ‘1998

The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948).

Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans– Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the

challenge is to exploit them– Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered,

and recursive fashion The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit

(1957).– Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the

primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels– A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer

technologies

NUPC ‘1998

Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density – Microprocessor speed

Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change

PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future

systems

Moore’s First Law

128KB128KB

128MB128MB

200020008KB8KB

1MB1MB

8MB8MB

1GB1GB

19701970 19801980 19901990

1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M

1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)

NUPC ‘1998

Platform evolution: How do they all connect?

NUPC ‘1998

Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

StorageStorageBackboneBackbone

MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing

Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year

????

NUPC ‘1998

Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

1.E+21

1.E+18

1.E+15

1.E+12

1.E +9

1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops

40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops

60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops

NUPC ‘1998

Alternative Computing Futures

Photos courtesy of Microsoft Cinemania

• Forbidden Planet (1956)

• Metropolis (1926)

• 2001 (1968)

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… SIX challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

Turing test: you can’t tell who’s on the other end when communicating with a machine using

Text Voice Visual image and voice

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs

HomeHome

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

CarCar

NUPC ‘1998

“Everything will be in Cyberspace” Is this a challenge? goal?

quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables

new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions

NUPC ‘1998

Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

Coupling to all information and information processors

Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks

NUPC ‘1998

Atoms vs Electrons for bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere

(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review

and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / store

NUPC ‘1998

By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.

Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

NUPC ‘1998

Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market

– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs

It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment

Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity

NUPC ‘1998

Internetters growth

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year

World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

NUPC ‘1998

Internetters growth

InternettersInternetters

PCsPCs

TVs & PhonesTVs & Phones

World PopulationWorld Population10000

1000

100

10‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

““1 Gp by 20001 Gp by 2000””NegroponteNegroponte

NUPC ‘1998

Growth in hypeWWW

Infoway addiction

Infoway regulation

lawsuits

Data from Gordon’s WAG

conferences

books,newspapers

Infoway promise:“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)

NUPC ‘1998

Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

ComputationComputation

CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages

NUPC ‘1998

DataData

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

TelephonyTelephony

TelevisionTelevision

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

NUPC ‘1998

New or old money… it’s just bits

Prepaid

Credit

Cash

Check

ATM /

Prepaid

NUPC ‘1998

Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

NUPC ‘1998

Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.

NUPC ‘1998

Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

NUPC ‘1998

Atoms vs Electrons for financial bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,

credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons

stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting

NUPC ‘1998

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling

Telepresentations Telemeetings The “work”

NUPC ‘1998

NUPC ‘1998

Motivation:Telepresentations• Presenter and/or

audience telepresent

NOT: meeting or collaboration settings

Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way

NUPC ‘1998

TelepresentationElements Slides Audio Video Script,

text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

NUPC ‘1998

Telepresentations:The Essentials

Slide and audio a must Add some video

(low quality) to make us feel good

Storage and transmission costs low

NUPC ‘1998

Telepresentations:The Killer App

Increased attendance & lower travel costs

Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real

space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

NUPC ‘1998

Today’sExperiment

Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this

– At home?– At another time?

How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?

NUPC ‘1998

Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

NUPC ‘1998

Telepresencehold a meeting of type, m

university or technical courseinterview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual

meeting, “town hall”, with p, distributed personswith as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresentmeetings are provably more productivemeetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional

synchronous

NUPC ‘1998

Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

NUPC ‘1998

NUPC ‘1998

Mobile videophone

NUPC ‘1998

Honda Robot

NUPC ‘1998

People surrogates

NUPC ‘1998

Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

NUPC ‘1998

““

””

By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,

loser gets fed)

NUPC ‘1998

Living in Cyberspace

NUPC ‘1998

Intrastructure

NUPC ‘1998

SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP

gateway, file, print, compute

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

Phone

POTS (legacy services)

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

LAN

PC NC*PC...

PhonePhone

NUPC ‘1998

Libretto, .5mm pencil

PCS; Pilot

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

Compass; altimeter

Not shown: ECG; GPS;

NUPC ‘1998

Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness

– need for communication/stimulation– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas– loss of group/teamwork skills– danger of becoming “terminal”

interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…

they simply need the contact with people

NUPC ‘1998

A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?

Spock

formal(in writing)

Self-control

informal(verbal)

Sally Field

Souter Evangelism Swaggert

Analyticals.. being right, detailed

analretentives

Drivers…results orient.

megalo-maniacs

Amiables…consensusbuilders

spinelesswimps

Expressives...want recognition, need contact

psychotics

Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)

2D Model

--------------chat----------------

emailbroadcast- push

Intensity

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

The Guardian Angel

NUPC ‘1998

Steve ManninCyberspace

NUPC ‘1998

MedtronicsImplanted

Cardioplastic

NUPC ‘1998

Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB

NUPC ‘1998

Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in CyberspaceElectrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence The Guardian Angel for healthThe Cyber Admin for personal use

NUPC ‘1998

The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory…

When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical parameters.

NUPC ‘1998

What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all

personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge

– recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images

– help in being the “guardian angel” What are the apps when we can do this?

NUPC ‘1998

Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to compute ... There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated thingsWith millions of people doing complicated things..

memex … stores all one’s books, records, and memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to textSpeech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography

NUPC ‘1998

NUPC ‘1998

Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seenHuman data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

NUPC ‘1998

Sizes of various information stores that an individual might need

Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 100-3,000 books10,000,000,000 disk, 4 years of read text

300,000,000,000 lifetime of read textTerabyte 1,000,000,000,000 lifetime of coded speech

25,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video, low Q100,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video @.1Mbps

Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 lifetime of hi-Q video

NUPC ‘1998

10X in 40 years(6% per year)

NUPC ‘1998

Library Volume Growth10X in 150 years

NUPC ‘1998

Now how do you find or use the rich information

Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

NUPC ‘1998

ColorB&W

BrightnessContrast

VolumeSpeech-Music

Meta Information

Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis

Context Relevance

ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork

SmartMedia Technologies

NUPC ‘1998

Virage Video Cataloger

NUPC ‘1998

Sizes of various information stores

Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 shelf of scanned paper,large book stack

10,000,000,000 movie, large disk200,000,000,000 2 floor library, videotape

Terabyte 1,000,000,000,000 million volume library20,000,000,000,000 Lib of Congress, disk array

Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 a national library15,000,000,000,000,00 disk production 1995

NUPC ‘1998

Library of Congress bits...

Scanned LC 1PBassumes 6B pages

13M photos 13TB4M maps 200TB500K movies 500TB3.5M recordings 2,000TB 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person

NUPC ‘1998

Publicly generated bits per year

Cinema 5K 200 TBImages (all) 52G 520 PBBroadcast (station)1500 200/10 PBRecordings 100K 60 TBTelephone (min.) 500G 400 PBVideotapes

NUPC ‘1998

The end