JSM Panel Session

JSM 2014, Boston, August 5, 2014 Session 2858:30 AM - 10:20 AMCommunicating Statistical Findings to Consulting Clients Operating in a Decision-Making Climate: Best and Worst Practices

1Panelists & Organizer/ChairPanelists: Michael Greene, Deloitte ConsultingJohn H. Schuenemeyer, Southwest Statistical ConsultingRalph M. Turner, HealthCore MaryJo O. Smith, Ypsilon Associates

Organizer/Chair: Isabella R. Ghement

2Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of our colleagues in shaping up this session:

Dr. Elena Rantou Dr. David Bristol Dr. David McArthur Dr. Richard Layton 3Session StructureGeneral comments on decision-makingDecision-making, risk and uncertaintyRoles of consultants in decision-makingConsulting workflow Floor Discussion

4Session GoalsWe hope this session will help you to:

Understand what decision-making entails Become aware of the interplay of risk and uncertainty in decision-making Clarify your role and responsibilities in the decision-making process Strengthen your decision-making abilities 5Decisions and Decision-MakingDecision:

A choice made between 2 or more available alternatives

6Source: http://managementinnovations.wordpress.com/2008/12/08/types-of-decisions-decision-making-process/6Decisions and Decision-MakingDecision-Making Process:

1. Identify an existing problem 2. List possible alternatives for solving the problem

3. Select the most beneficial of these alternatives

4. Implement the selected alternative

5. Monitor if the implemented alternative is solving the identified problem

6. Adapt the implemented alternative as appropriate

7Statistical consultants can facilitate most of these stepsSource: http://managementinnovations.wordpress.com/2008/12/08/types-of-decisions-decision-making-process/7General Comments on Decision-MakingTypically, decisions are made using the emotional mind first and then, the rational mind

The best decisions should use the wise mind (blend of the emotional and rational minds)

Wise Mind8

General Comments on Decision-MakingThe wise mind can be engaged in decision making by asking questions such as:

What kind of decisions can be made in this context?

What information is needed to make the decision?

What are the pros and cons of each decision?

Will this decision lead to a good outcome or a bad outcome?

99Decision-Making: General CommentsWe make decisions based on available information

Unknown factors can influence the outcome of our decisions

Contingency planning helps us deal with the unknowable 10

Decision-Making: General CommentsDecisions can lead to either good or bad outcomes

We can only find out if we made a good decision in hindsight

However, we can consider what if scenarios to predict whether or not a decision has the potential to be good/bad.

11Decision-Making: General CommentsEvery decision has an upside and a downside

A good decision-maker must weight these effectively

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General Comments on Decision-MakingDecisions can and should be made adaptively and in small increments

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General Comments on Decision-MakingReal-world decisions are subject to constraints (e.g., time, human resources, knowledge, expertise)

Decisions which factor in these constraints are realistic

Decisions which ignore these constraints are idealistic and likely doomed to failure

14General Comments on Decision-MakingMost of the decisions we make are not life or death

But all decisions have consequences

When consequences concern others, we need to pay extra attention to our decision-making15General Comments on Decision-MakingDealing with decision paralysis

Is there a small decision I could make now? If yes, what information do I need to make this decision?

Important to break big decisions down into a series of manageable smaller decisions

Starting small is key.

16General Comments on Decision-MakingCollaborative decisions are usually better than one-sided decisions. In collaboration, 1 + 1 often equals more than 2!

Decisions that are mindful of all the stakeholders requirements are better than those decisions that aim to impose change from the outside or from above

Relationship building is an important part of any decision-making process

17Relationship BuildingTreat every client as your most important one

Respond promptly Ask questions / Encourage feedback

Go the extra mile

Focus on results

Always summarize next steps

18Key Things to Remember Timeliness

Information

Contingency planning

What-if scenarios

Wise mind

Relationship building

19Decision-Making, Risk and Uncertainty Decisions often require consideration of risk and uncertainty

Personal Decisions: climb a mountain decide to quit smoking have surgery

Business Decisions: introduce a new product line drill a well to explore for oil start a new business

20Decision-Making, Risk and UncertaintyRisk involves loss dollars, health, job, .

Uncertainty involves the unknowable