jrsa conference 20082 data everyone in oya every prison/jail release and probation sentence all...

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JRSA Conference 2008JRSA Conference 2008

Using data to Improve Justice Policy and Using data to Improve Justice Policy and PracticePractice

Paul Bellatty, Oregon DepPaul Bellatty, Oregon Dep’’t of Corrections Researcht of Corrections Research

Craig Craig PrinsPrins, Executive Director of Oregon, Executive Director of Oregon’’s Criminal s Criminal Justice CommissionJustice Commission

Can we accurately identify those who will be reCan we accurately identify those who will be re--arrested?arrested?

Is criminal history from the grid a good proxy for Is criminal history from the grid a good proxy for risk to be rerisk to be re--arrested?arrested?

Do prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges Do prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges incarcerate those who will reincarcerate those who will re--offend?offend?

Are prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges Are prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges open to considering risk assessment during open to considering risk assessment during

sentencing?sentencing?

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DataData

Everyone in OYA

Every Prison/Jail Release and Probation Sentence

All Arrests20052000

20052000

2000 2005

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DataData18,050 youth involved with OYA 200018,050 youth involved with OYA 2000--20052005

1.26 million LEDS records 1.26 million LEDS records (~750,000 different people)(~750,000 different people)

20,457 releases from DOC 20,457 releases from DOC

37,751 local control and probation cases37,751 local control and probation cases

Can we accurately identify Can we accurately identify those who will be rethose who will be re--arrested?arrested?

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Is criminal history from the Is criminal history from the grid a good proxy for risk to be grid a good proxy for risk to be

rere--arrested?arrested?

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Congruence between History and Risk Congruence between History and Risk Younger prison/jail releasesYounger prison/jail releases

121210101212HighHigh1010881111MediumMediumRiskRisk121211111414LowLow

HighHighMediumMediumLowLowHistoryHistory

Do prosecutors, defense Do prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges attorneys, and judges

incarcerate those who will reincarcerate those who will re--offend?offend?

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ReRe--arrest for a Felony or Class A arrest for a Felony or Class A Person MisdemeanorPerson Misdemeanor

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Actual Risk Tool

PrisonProbation

Grid blocks 5C-E and 4C-E

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Are prosecutors, defense Are prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges open to attorneys, and judges open to considering risk assessment considering risk assessment

during sentencing?during sentencing?

The current guidelines improve The current guidelines improve public safety very wellpublic safety very well

11% of DAs11% of DAs7% of defense attorneys7% of defense attorneys9% of judges9% of judges

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A risk assessment tool would be A risk assessment tool would be helpful when sentencing all helpful when sentencing all

offendersoffenders

45% of DAs agree or strongly agree45% of DAs agree or strongly agree63% of defense attorneys agree or 63% of defense attorneys agree or strongly agreestrongly agree89% of judges agree or strongly agree89% of judges agree or strongly agree

I am skeptical about how well a I am skeptical about how well a RAT can predict an offenders RAT can predict an offenders

likelihood to relikelihood to re--offendoffend

25% of DAs strongly agree25% of DAs strongly agree38% of defense attorneys strongly agree38% of defense attorneys strongly agree16% of judges strongly agree16% of judges strongly agree

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ConclusionsConclusions

Question: Can we accurately identify thoseQuestion: Can we accurately identify thosewho will be rewho will be re--arrested?arrested?

Answer: Yes, we can differentiate those Answer: Yes, we can differentiate those who are rewho are re--arrested with a known degreearrested with a known degreeof accuracyof accuracy


Question: Is criminal history from the grid a Question: Is criminal history from the grid a good proxy for risk to be regood proxy for risk to be re--arrested?arrested?

Answer: GuidelineAnswer: Guideline’’s s ““criminal historycriminal history”” is a is a poor proxy for some offender groups and apoor proxy for some offender groups and amarginal risk tool for other offender groupsmarginal risk tool for other offender groups

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Question: Do prosecutors, defense attorneys,Question: Do prosecutors, defense attorneys,and judges incarcerate those who will and judges incarcerate those who will rere--offend?offend?

Answer: No. Probationers recidivate atAnswer: No. Probationers recidivate athigher rates than those being releasedhigher rates than those being releasedfrom prison.from prison.


Question: Are prosecutors, defenseQuestion: Are prosecutors, defenseattorneys, and judges open toattorneys, and judges open toconsidering risk assessment duringconsidering risk assessment duringsentencing?sentencing?

Answer: No. Parties donAnswer: No. Parties don’’t liket likeguidelines but are skeptical of riskguidelines but are skeptical of riskassessment tools. assessment tools.

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ReRe--arrest Ratesarrest Rates

PopulationPopulation YoungerYounger OlderOlder

Prison releasesPrison releases 35.8%35.8% 34.8%34.8%

Jail releases &Jail releases & 50.9%50.9% 43.9%43.9%probationersprobationers

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ReRe--arrested for any arrested for any offense/violationoffense/violation

ReRe--arrestedarrested for a person for a person crimecrime

SummarySummaryCongruence between Grid and ModelCongruence between Grid and Model

DOC ReleasesDOC Releases30% of cases, Grid over30% of cases, Grid over--estimates riskestimates risk39% of cases, Grid and model agree39% of cases, Grid and model agree31% of cases, Grid under31% of cases, Grid under--estimates riskestimates risk

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ProbationersProbationers19% of cases, Grid over19% of cases, Grid over--estimates riskestimates risk61% of cases, Grid and model agree61% of cases, Grid and model agree21% of cases, Grid under21% of cases, Grid under--estimates riskestimates risk


Both DOC Releases and ProbationersBoth DOC Releases and Probationers23% of cases, Grid over23% of cases, Grid over--estimates riskestimates risk53% of cases, Grid and model agree53% of cases, Grid and model agree25% of cases, Grid under25% of cases, Grid under--estimates riskestimates risk

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SummarySummary

Statistical equations can accurately Statistical equations can accurately identify lower risk populationsidentify lower risk populationsReRe--arrest for person crimes is a better arrest for person crimes is a better outcome measure than any reoutcome measure than any re--arrestarrestAccuracy for DOC releases is better than Accuracy for DOC releases is better than for probationersfor probationersPredicting any rePredicting any re--arrest for young arrest for young probationers is difficultprobationers is difficult

Summary (cont.)Summary (cont.)

Congruence between grid history and risk Congruence between grid history and risk of reof re--arrest is not goodarrest is not goodCongruence is best for populations where Congruence is best for populations where accuracy is pooraccuracy is poor

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Oregon Youth Authority DataOregon Youth Authority Data

•• Type of CrimeType of Crime•• Months on ProbationMonths on Probation

RevokedRevoked

•• Months on ParoleMonths on Parole

•• ReRe--conviction as Juvenileconviction as Juvenile•• Age at 1Age at 1stst ArrestArrest

•• Weapon Used in CrimeWeapon Used in Crime•• Months in Closed CustodyMonths in Closed Custody

•• # of Juvenile Arrests# of Juvenile Arrests•• ReRe--arrest as Juvenilearrest as Juvenile

•• Class of Crime (A, B, C)Class of Crime (A, B, C)•• Sexual OffenderSexual Offender

Oregon Department of Corrections DataOregon Department of Corrections Data

Mental healthMental healthGenderGender

EthnicityEthnicity

Type of CrimeType of CrimeAgeAge

Sentence LengthSentence LengthPrior IncarcerationsPrior Incarcerations

Earned TimeEarned TimeTheft ConvictionTheft Conviction

Severity of OffenseSeverity of OffenseGang AffiliationGang Affiliation

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AccuracyAccuracy

AgreeAgreeFalse negativeFalse negative

False PositiveFalse PositiveAgreeAgree

ReRe--ArrestArrestNo ReNo Re--ArrestArrestActual

Re-Arrest

No Re-arrest

Model Says:

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DOC Releases DOC Releases –– Any ReAny Re--arrestarrest

1313707029.429.457.257.216.816.82020696924.224.244.644.610.910.92424686820.320.337.437.47.67.62929666617.317.330.130.15.25.23535626213.713.722.722.73.13.14040585811.111.115.315.31.71.7

positivepositiveaccuracyaccuracy% Wrong% Wrongrere--arrestedarrestednegativenegativeFalse False OverallOverall

Model says Model says % not% notFalseFalse

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DOC Releases DOC Releases –– Person CrimesPerson Crimes

44787819.619.690.290.217.717.71010767617.717.781.581.514.414.41212767616.016.076.476.412.212.21515747414.214.269.869.89.99.92121717112.412.462.262.27.77.72929656510.610.653.053.05.65.6

positivepositiveaccuracyaccuracy% Wrong% Wrongrere--arrestedarrestednegativenegativeFalse False OverallOverallPercent notPercent notFalseFalse

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Probationers Probationers –– Any ReAny Re--arrestarrest

2323626241.241.235.735.714.714.72929626238.138.123.923.99.19.13535606033.833.814.214.24.84.83939585831.131.17.07.02.22.24242575725.825.83.03.00.70.74343565620.520.50.70.70.20.244445656000.20.200

positivepositiveaccuracyaccuracy% Wrong% Wrongrere--arrestedarrestednegativenegativeFalse False OverallOverall

Percent Percent notnotFalseFalse

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Probationers Probationers –– Person CrimesPerson Crimes

00808020.620.699.899.820.620.611808020.420.498.798.720.120.122797919.719.796.096.018.918.955787818.818.891.591.517.217.21111747417.617.682.982.914.614.62121696915.815.869.769.711.011.03434595913.313.352.752.77.07.0

positivepositiveaccuracyaccuracy% Wrong% Wrongrere--arrestedarrestednegativenegativeFalse False OverallOverallPercent notPercent notFalseFalse

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ReRe--arrest rates associated with each populationarrest rates associated with each population

43.86% (9,899)43.86% (9,899)OLDER PROBATIONERSOLDER PROBATIONERS(N=22,572)(N=22,572)

50.92% (7,776)50.92% (7,776)YOUNG PROBATIONERSYOUNG PROBATIONERS(N=15,272)(N=15,272)

34.79% (5,831)34.79% (5,831)OLDER DOC RELEASESOLDER DOC RELEASES(N=16,760)(N=16,760)

35.83% (1,213)35.83% (1,213)YOUNG DOC RELEASESYOUNG DOC RELEASES(N=2,267)(N=2,267)

RERE--ARREST RATEARREST RATEPOPULATIONPOPULATION

Characteristics of DOC releasesCharacteristics of DOC releases

1,0601,060818818SINC ERELEASESINC ERELEASE

322322322322SEVERITY OF CRIMESEVERITY OF CRIME

32322222SENTENCE LENGTH (MONTHS)SENTENCE LENGTH (MONTHS)

1100MENTAL HEALTH NEEDSMENTAL HEALTH NEEDS

17171616PERCENT OF EARNED TIMEPERCENT OF EARNED TIME

37372222AGEAT RELEASEAGEAT RELEASE

24%24%25%25%PROPERTY CRIMEPROPERTY CRIME

44%44%52%52%PERSONPERSON--TOTO--PERSON CRIMEPERSON CRIME

26%26%16%16%THEFT CONVICTIONTHEFT CONVICTION

90%90%91%91%MALEMALE

59%59%44%44%REVOCATIONREVOCATION

45%45%18%18%PRIOR INCARCERATIONPRIOR INCARCERATION

20%20%OYA INVOLVEMENTOYA INVOLVEMENT

5%5%16%16%GANG AFFILIATIONGANG AFFILIATION

42%42%6%6%MULTIPLE CYCLESMULTIPLE CYCLES

OLDER DOC RELEASESOLDER DOC RELEASESYOUNG DOC RELEASESYOUNG DOC RELEASESCHARACTERISTICSCHARACTERISTICS

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Characteristics of probationersCharacteristics of probationers

1,2521,2521,2311,231SINCE PROBATION (DAYS)SINCE PROBATION (DAYS)

433433424424SEVERTY PF CRIMESEVERTY PF CRIME

38382121AGE AT PROBATIONAGE AT PROBATION

21%21%33%33%PROPERTY CRIMEPROPERTY CRIME

15%15%18%18%PERSONPERSON--TOTO--PERSON CRIMEPERSON CRIME

28%28%32%32%THEFT CONVICTIONTHEFT CONVICTION

69%69%77%77%MALEMALE

12%12%2%2%REVOCATIONREVOCATION

15%15%2%2%PRIOR INCARCERATIONPRIOR INCARCERATION

7%7%OYA INVOLVEMENTOYA INVOLVEMENT

41%41%9%9%MULTIPLE CYCLESMULTIPLE CYCLES

OLDER OLDER PROBATIONERSPROBATIONERS

YOUNG YOUNG PROBATIONERSPROBATIONERSCovariatesCovariates


0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Prison Probation

GridRisk Tool

Grid blocks 4A-B and 3A-B

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0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Prison Probation

GridRisk Tool

Grid blocks 5C-E and 4C-E


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Prison Probation

GridRisk Tool

Grid blocks 8F-I and 7F-I

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Congruence between History and Risk Congruence between History and Risk Younger probationersYounger probationers

112244HighHigh33441010MediumMediumRiskRisk3311116363LowLow

HighHighMediumMediumLowLowHistoryHistory

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0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Actual Risk Tool

PrisonProbation

Grid blocks 4A-B and 3A-B


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Actual Risk Tool

PrisonProbation

Grid blocks 8F-I and 7F-I

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Sentencing guidelines should be Sentencing guidelines should be revised to include more range revised to include more range

within certain blockswithin certain blocks

66% of DAs agree or strongly agree66% of DAs agree or strongly agree86% of defense attorneys agree or 86% of defense attorneys agree or strongly agreestrongly agree82% of judges agree or strongly agree82% of judges agree or strongly agree


Do prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges incarcerate those Do prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges incarcerate those who will rewho will re--offend?offend?

Probationers recidivate at higher rate than those being releasedProbationers recidivate at higher rate than those being releasedfrom prisonfrom prison

Are prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges open to consideriAre prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges open to considering ng risk assessment during sentencing?risk assessment during sentencing?

Parties donParties don’’t like guidelines but are skeptical of risk assessment toolt like guidelines but are skeptical of risk assessment tool

jrsa conference 20082 data everyone in oya every prison/jail release and probation sentence all...

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